pasnownut

Saw the 6z earlier at home, and yeah, thats what I was hoping for, a little south tick, as we all know how things "adjust" come go time. Hey, were inside 48 so its likely somethings happening, just need to see who gets lucky and who's watching. As I stated last evening, we typically struggle to get to cold enough down east of the blue ridge, but if rates get decent, we could get slush bombs for a while.

#coldbias I wanna believe, but we all know how these kinda deals work out. Cold seems to always be delayed until best precip has exited stage left... Boy I wanna be wrong for once

with NAM/GFS and Euro all coming around to the idea, I think we might have a legit threat here. Never a fan of changover deals here in the LSV, but with such a consensus, it's not impossible. I wish best accums were still south of the MD line for me to feel comfy. Looks like a Chambersburg to Allentown special IMO. Maybe a slushy inch or 2 down here if were lucky....but hey, even I get lucky once in a while....

12z GFS colder surface reflected in snowfall distribution as it also ticked SE. But if its still the GFS we know and love....its right where CTP wants it :). Going to get my tree today. Nice way to start the day. Have a good one gang.

fwiw, GFS is a tick colder thru 60 should help, and is only a couple ticks away from a nice little event to make it feel festive around here.

divide by 2 and I'm betting most would be happy. I am. Lets see if you can go 2 for 2 bud.

was thinking the same thing, as yeah this week is a rollercoaster w/ temp/precip/mood swings :)., then next week looks to be another step in the right direction. Still doesnt look to lock in, but flow thickness's are getting right that as long as we keep thrown precip this way, were gonna hit on some of them. Typical for our region...especially at this time of year. Beats the blazes outta warm n dry....

There is a half truth to that statement. Just because we got snow (well some/most) earlier this week, and most are on the proverbial snow board....it really is quite early to be knee deep in tracking, as climo says close be not quite yet. I will say it has been rather wintry up in the northern tier, as they've had multiple snow events, but southern tier is still a late fall feel. Looking at the nooners, says we should continue to progress towards show time round here. I'm happy to see normalish with no anomalous warm/cold. Good by me... for now....

all good. Carry on... Heres to a better tomorrow.

sorry wrong emoji. was just tryin to be inclusive. is this better? theres a little smartass in all of us. Just playin w/ ya. I dont envy any of you mods here. You all earn your keep/beer.

Thats what GEPS/EPS both show and part of what I mean by waiting. Verbaitim that ridging needs to retrograde a bit to get to what you are suggesting, but its not far away from decent

Looping the ensembles, gotta say thanks to the E PAC as there seems to be enough ridging and it really is trying to keep hope alive for use while we wait for the AO/NAO to get a better look to it. IMO as long as we keep that feature, we have a shot at something. GEPS/EPS look similar so thats a + to me. Mind you I'm just looking out to 10 days. Like PSU stated a while back any unfavorable looks seem to be brief/transient.

was just looking for the popcorn emoji when i read your post...SMH. Whats funny is that some think even this thread is debatable.... Thx for setting things straight. We owe you beers for all you do...but never see. Carry on. edit - Give that Mappy chick a beer too....

Yeah, but if you look at the 12z, its a cutter. I really only posted for fun as an "I'm baaaack" kinda thing cause some of you may know i like snow. Gotta look deeper to see where the base state is headed to see what fits storm/pattern wise. All said, still nice to see blues replacing greens on precip panels :). edit - Just looked at the ENS run at same time and its nowhere close to the OP....but its better, so I'll hug it for now :).

Yeah, we can get screwed more than one way round here. That's for sure. Over the last few seasons, there's been more than enough southern fun for me to be jealous of those areas. Here's hoping we are in the thick of it this season.

One more for ya. Deer 1. Camp 0. Too much snow. Nothing was moving till yesterday when i was leaving.

and....now that I'm back (and digging out from emails/work), I'm looking for the next chance for snow (down here though). After frontal passage/ rainer, it looks to set the table for some love from above next weekend. Its at 10 days so it should be something to watch. Will dig in more in the next few days to see if this is legit. Lotsa catchin up to do. Nut

And another.

Here’s one from the mtns

Approx 9” up on top here in Gaines. Really hard getting around. Still snowing a bit.

Happy Turk Day all! Hope we see some white this weekend. Headed to cabin tomorrow so I will be largely MIA till Wed. Hope everyone gets some action (snow too :). Nut

what horns??? sorry, no idea here.....Bash away. I'm a big boy and can take the beatin.

if one looks at the 6z gfs, that proves your point perfectly. Setup has always been somewhat skeptical to me with no troughing here in the east to let this thing fester. Progressive look says move along....not boom to my eye. I do think we potentially see some front side and backside (typical NW locals), but think thats about it. I wanna be wrong here so don't shoot me. Regardless it will feel like the season and for that I'm thankful. Happy pre Turk Day all. Lots to be thankful for. Nut edit - and when I say front side and back side, I mean just mood kinda stuff, but not much more than that (Typical LES might grab a couple inches).