pasnownut

My thoughts regarding the CAD were that it would hold better the further east one was in the state. Some models scoured rather swiftly and some held on (caught on) at the end. I'm not sure how this chalks up from a forecasting perspective, but to me the CAD did as well or better than modeled. GFS showed the warm nose that would punch late and it did a good job of it. The "win" in my book was staying frozen as long as we did. IF that warm nose didnt verify, I'd seriously be out snowmobiling (and can still play around a bit here). I had fun throwing my thought out there early on....and stood by them. Thats what I'm here for.

Well I hope we get into something next weekend, because it was nice to play around in winter weather yesterday. Snow/sleet combo also had me around 2''' prior to backend light rain/drizzle and warm nose did its thingy. Still have enough compacted snow/ice that i may rip around in the fields today. Reports of 4-6" in northern Pa (friends up to snowmobile). Will get reports later today as i think they may have gotten enough to rip around a bit (Base was wiped out so not sure). I think Nam and GFS did a decent job w/ this event. Looking forward to the next one.

It’s melting......... 36 here. Hope cold front gets in the move to save our precious snow.

Zr here.

Big pingers with occasional flakes. While true snowfall did not quite add up, I love sleet. Worked out as I thought it would hoping for a little whitening on the back side. CAD held strong here. enjoy.

All sleet 28. no zr yet. My hopes have verified for a non rain event here.

About 1.5-2. Just switched. Pingers.

Still Snowing.

25 at 730 now 20 1” from round 1

25 at 730 now 20

Steady snow. Started at 8am. Happy happy. Time to Enjoy. out with smokepole. We are havin a blast.

Gut says 6zs will paint the picture As CAD almost becomes nowcasting as even Messi struggle to pick up duration.

Total storm qpf

FF at 850

Best forcing S and SW of them

Well you may like this one too.

Verbatim...You look pretty safe

That’s fine by me.

3k came south w frozen. Hoping it’s some snow then sleet. If Zr.......yuk

And TTs inclusive of sleet. Only sharing because frozen came south below MD

Hoping you are east enough to have enough CAD to pull it off. Thats why i've been hoping for a slightly weaker storm, as while we lose qpf...we also lose warm punch. Personally id take a cooler column w/ less qpf, than hoping rates overcome wet bulb (as Mag) suggested. Further east we may be deep enough for that to happen for a time, but eventually...we likely lose it.

Overruning type events tend to be a little ahead of models sometimes, so we'll take any advection snows we can get. I'm really hoping the gap between advection and the real deal narrows overnight for same reason, anything we can get before we lose the column keeps the chance at snow on the ground for a handful of days alive.

If...if that first batch is correctly modeled and we lose it to evap and low DPs....and the mids cook quickly.....well that’s the missle to the bow.

and full disclosure, while hugging the crap out of above, I think OTG totals are generally divisble by 2 as sleet and ZR will keep totals knocked down. Now time to pay attention to Mesos and hone in on 700 and below levels to see how they are initializing vs actual. Thats gonna pave the path to frozen. Also watch for CAD structure east of mtns and below MD line as we near go time. If my hunch is right you see a southern push to critical layers which is my path to victory. CAD erodes too quickly.....well you know how that goes. Will my battleship cruise into port with bands playin.....or get sunk from SS Submarine?

cause I'm a bonehead that tried to do it sitting in a parking lot.... better?? Looks like Horst hijacked the USS GooFuS special intel maps for his forecast