pasnownut

I know the TT algorythm is whacked, and typically divide by 2. It didn't do poorly in the northwoods last week. It was rather close north of 80-6 corridor. The 7 is basically over my cabin. We got 7" on the button on top and 5-6 in the valleys. Eyeballing on the way up. Elysburg 1", Danville about the same, Wspt 2", and from Tioga border (liberty exit and further up, 4". Not a bust in my book.

Just for fun....

Have any of you even looked at the short range models lately? Im confused, as they did pretty well last week and now advertise a CTP event tomorrow (mind you not a big one, but its something)...and if correct, someone in the LSV gets your 5" tomorrow. While I realize the doom and gloom...and no endless weeks of winter (like I want). Snow is still snow. I'll also add that someones gonna bust bad, as my CTP forecast for Akron is rain and 53, and 12z come in looking like below??

No problem. I’d add Montague (for love of snow) Brantingham (picturesque) Old Forge (lots to do) Lake Placid (former Olympic venues and great winter town. (we are going to soon after doing research).

I thought the same. It was misleading (although ugly for sure)

seems rather fitting.

an example of the hype train that I'm talking about. https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html Yes....I HATE hyperbole... Signed, Realist and btw, this realist knows that with the lack of the "normal" (chat about winter), I cant argue for a second that this winter sucks.....so far, and may straight into spring. 6 legit weeks left and if we found a way to backload the hell outta what's left, I'm betting there would be little chat about it...other then the "i hate it crowd". Hope my point is understood.

But it doesnt.... While its factual to date....its just jumping on the hype/click train. To have a balanced approach it should also state that of late most of our "winter" (term used loosely) have been backloaded...but that detracts from the hype.

18zs seemed to have followed seasonal progression and came NW w/ LP. Thought 500's didnt have a big cutter feel to them as the progressive flow as has been the norm ... but same old wash rinse repeat. Ughh

Yeah this is the next one to watch and verbatim, it dissects the state from SW to NE. I little wiggle the wrong way and were in trouble, but a little wiggle the other way and you may have your VDay plans changed to snowchasin w/ your sweetie.

I dont think you'll need a plane. Tug Hill has 2' on the ground, and looking at recent runs, says Northeast is in the game for a couple opps at nice snow. Maybe just s nice road trip instead. Hope you get to enjoy it as well. Nut

Nut had a fantastic weekend in Tioga/Potter. Lots of snow (10" at cabin 3" from prior and 7" from Thursday night/Friday), and 5-7" in valley around Gaines/Galeton/Germania. We did 181 miles and saw a decent amount of sled traffic. Snow line was basically IPT and north on way up Friday. We got 1 to 1.5" additional through Saturday evening till it tapered off. Hearing reports of 1-2" additonal last evening before transition to rain. If anyone wants to see pics and is on Fbook, check out Pa Grand Canyon Snowmobile club. I am webmaster and do the updates on FBook w/ another guy. You'll see some info I posted for trail conditions. You can also check out our web page for cameras of various locations, as I'm sure some may be scratching heads as to there being any snow in this horrid winter....but there is a little bit in norther tier.

7” at cabin. 10” on the ground.

Been watching this one for a while and think the bolded part has a good shot at verifying. Gut says you can add Tioga to Bradford counties as they may be big winners in northwoods, as deform bands have best shot at cranking there. Also think this has heartbreak written on if for those just east of the r/s line. I'll let you know what we got when i get home (or will post pics if i can).

While the point is well taken, I look at it as a steady feed of clues in a guessing game, that based on the source, you know what you can trust....and what you can't. From 120 +, yes there is sometimes/often enough variability to make on rip out whatever hair remains in ones head.....but the main clues are often decent. Now beyond 240.....well that's just a crap shoot....

That was what i was referencing earlier. add onto that the AO wanting to stay + and lets just say......that's not a + whatsoever. If there's any silver lining...it will look different next week. What that look is like is anyone's guess, but at least we'll be entering our window of opportunity.

I only share because now guidance is getting a bit better look at players as they come onto the field, and we can hone in a bit more on Op's over Ens guidance. Just an observation.....

This has some good stuff on it. https://www.weather.gov/ctp/climateRecordsHarrisburg

I may be overreaching, but as it has just appeared on nooner guidance, IF it were to drop in a bit sooner, it COULD help to tug this thing a bit further west.

say what you will.......... NS diving in a bit?? Too late?? Go look at last couple runs and it wasn't there.

thats just ugly....no sugarcoating that one.

I know your not...you know better. If you look over some of yesterdays stuff...there are a few that are right on the ledge, or sound like they already jumped. I'd hope you don't sugarcoat....that's why your good at what you do and why its great having you in here. My frustration is wrt the negativity when a run or two that are 4 -5 days ahead of an event doesn't show something good or what we want. ANYONE that has been around long enough knows that its way too early to talk in definitive tones about this weekend....let alone beyond. While this weekends look has diminished over the last 36 hrs, this has happened many times (as Blizz and i alluded to). If one looks at last nights 0z GFS OP, you'd see the shift that I've been trying to hammer home. Yeah it wasn't much, but while there was no convo about it, it shows what a small shift 4 days out can still do for parts of our crew. I've never thought this one was for the entire forum, but SE 1/2 of Pa most definitely could be in play. I go to MA to do what I love....discuss weather patterns and sniff out opps. They have 10x the interest in doing that, but they also have 30x the whiners. For me, I cant stand the whining when someone doesnt at least offer up some reasoning. If that's my shortcoming, then fine....my bad. H2O/mappy/psu/chill/cape/frd are just a few that keep it interesting/real/fun. They too were frustrated yesterday and calling out the normal complainers and were asking for them to take it to banter....I'll just leave it at that. Its been tough and frustrating for everyone....me included. And if anyone thinks I'm nothing but rainbows n unicorns....I've looked at the tellies overnight and yeah...I'm nervous as they took are looking less favorable once again.

a raging + AO/NAO are like a vacuum and suck all the heat north....yes, lack of snow cover to the north surely adds into the mix, as does a constant wave train of cutters the scours out any cold we get. Look at the lack of frozen ground. We really need to be 41-42 and north to get that with any regularity, and throw in a bad base state....yeah were "cooked", and relying on climo and luck to get the goods. Weve been backloaded for the last couple of years, so in my mind, Feb/March are way too early to write off. NAO leads are +/- 10 days and IF we can get any better flow up top....we could roll into better times rather swiftly.

Great points. As you well know, a few good periods of winter have a way of spoiling and giving false sense of reality. With all of the data available 4x daily, as soon as 1 run shows something good, by and large, we latch on and try to see how it can happen, while knowing odds are typically stacked against a couple good looking model runs in less than stellar patterns. That said, we also know that we can luck our way into storms, as there are always unforseen variables that can offer pleasant surprises. For me...thats why I'm here....the thrill of the chase. I just dont understand all of the whining when the reality is this is closer to normal, and not every year has to look like winter....no matter what the date on the calendar says. it happens. Get over it.

That is what is killing this thing and what I was referencing above wrt ridging. Looking over AM runs, some have a little better ridging out ahead which give this thing a chance to climb a bit more. Again, that's not a wish...its what I'm looking for based on what we are discussing about storms and their ability to climb north even as we get into the near term. Like Blizz said, its happened countless times over the last few years. That's my rub w/ those that have already called this DOA. Just based on our ability to fail, they are probably "correct" in their assessment, but IMO its really 36hrs away from calling the coroner. edit - and for those in the NW....fine....call the coroner, but anyone here in the LSV that is calling this, is just hoping to get "lucky".