pasnownut

I'm gonna sleep on it...... G night

Yes, the "relaxation" has been showing up for several days now. I suggested the other day that it was looking likely on most ens guidance, but that relax, brings the cold WAY south (likely coldest the SE has seen this year IMO), and beyond seems to be the time that opens the window for a decent run at winter. For how long....I dont know, but tellies are in support of something less transient and more sustained.

Saw that. Nooners tell us GFS/CMC/GEM/ICON all see the storm. Thats enough concensus to annie up.

well if they are.....shame on them. There is not a person on this board that shouldn't know better by now....and if they don't know better....start paying attention.

Yes. I never look at a map at 5 days out thinking “that’s gonna happen”. I search for trends/continuity, what players are on the field and in what areas. That’s it.

For it to bomb we'd want the 500 much closer and "diving in". Verbatim too much space between, but column is cold enough up here as 540's are running through southern Va. Trough is neutral, so as Bubbs (is that better ) suggests, its progressive and cant really go nuts. IMO this isnt done coming north. Just look at some of our better looks so far this season, and how north theyve corrected. Atmospheric memory.

yeah, it'll get there but I'm worried about it ending up in Eerie.....

above 2 images show a nice consensus for not wanting to give up on this weekend.

that sucks... this doesnt though.....

Z Germans must like Mondays....nice trend. Hoping it doesnt end up in Eerie by go time......

Ops this far out are going to bounce around like a ping pong. Not unexpected IMO. step 1. keep the cold in the east step 2. keep the storms coming along step 3. wait patiently (hardest step)

I’ve been called WAY worse. Just havin fun.

I sure did. I’m not writing this weekend off yet either. I think Bubbles suggested yesterday about marginal temps and think he’s right but if we can get the PJ to dive in a bit more it would help.

BUT...........if this one doesnt work out....I'm cautiously optimistic that we will be quite busy in the next couple weeks as it looks rather active and with the NAO trending more favorably, the flow at 500 (with the exception of maybe a day or 2) really looks to support a notably colder regime. IF we can keep the storms coming, the odds of putting some snow on the boards would likely increase notably as we get into Feb. Here is GEFS at 234.....nice PAC ridge and trough in east. NAO is there and verbatim thats cold and hopefully snowy.

IMO Too far out to really dig deep. With the variability on the models we need some continuity. Best takeaway is that we have stuff to track and if all works out we will need plows n shovels. Personally I’m happy to be in the game. Looking forward to tracking what seems like a legit threat window.

GFS is right where we want it. 1step closer. 49 more to go....

Seeing that the SE is potentially getting in the action is a great sign. edit. What blizzard just said 5 seconds before I did.

I expected some elevation and isolated “winners” with this one but late pop of secondary started to show up and I pulled chips off as soon as I saw that. Glad for those who are scoring.

Gotta love the internet.

and ground truth says its always a safer bet to say "it ain't happening" wrt snowstorms and be right 90% of the time.

No..... its not me.........I"m much cuter thank that.

I'd sh!t twinkies if that were to verify..... Naked snow angels in the drifts.....

I'm deserving for sure and to add to your point, it gives us wiggle room for the undeniable "north jog", but that said, at 210 it retrogrades right off SE NJ coast. Verbatim we'd likely be safe w/ it tucked in close as general rule of thumb w/ coastal like this is that once storm gets to your latitude, you are usually safe as column is as warm as its gonna get, and any marginal boundary layers would crash and we snow....like hopefully CCB snow.....like lotsa CCB snow. Stall that beeyatch. OK, way too much analyzing an op run at 8 days....sure is perty though.

can't wait sorry Happy Friday (for the next 6 hours anyway)