pasnownut

Great points. As you well know, a few good periods of winter have a way of spoiling and giving false sense of reality. With all of the data available 4x daily, as soon as 1 run shows something good, by and large, we latch on and try to see how it can happen, while knowing odds are typically stacked against a couple good looking model runs in less than stellar patterns. That said, we also know that we can luck our way into storms, as there are always unforseen variables that can offer pleasant surprises. For me...thats why I'm here....the thrill of the chase. I just dont understand all of the whining when the reality is this is closer to normal, and not every year has to look like winter....no matter what the date on the calendar says. it happens. Get over it.

That is what is killing this thing and what I was referencing above wrt ridging. Looking over AM runs, some have a little better ridging out ahead which give this thing a chance to climb a bit more. Again, that's not a wish...its what I'm looking for based on what we are discussing about storms and their ability to climb north even as we get into the near term. Like Blizz said, its happened countless times over the last few years. That's my rub w/ those that have already called this DOA. Just based on our ability to fail, they are probably "correct" in their assessment, but IMO its really 36hrs away from calling the coroner. edit - and for those in the NW....fine....call the coroner, but anyone here in the LSV that is calling this, is just hoping to get "lucky".

I've been watching the flow and looking for signs of better looks. Oz GFS had more dig and better ridging out ahead as did the 6z but its a little late to do us enough good. I hate wish casting, but IF we can get that to occur just a bit earlier, it might yank this thing north a bit more. I mention it because it still has a chance of happening as the NS energy still off the map.

I agree with you and in reality this is the case w/ most events. 0z NAM looks like it too is close enough (extrapolated)

Like I posted a bit ago. Look at this am 6z and you are flush.

if they only realized how it drives decent posters away...... ..........so in other weather news, GFS came towards the Euro, and the Euro came towards the GFS (ish). I still think this is in play for many, as we've seen too many jogs north in the last few years to ignore. does anyone know if they worked out the north trend in the new and improved FV3

and only 6 short hours earlier.... this

I'm glad some level heads still prevail on these boards....My forum is about to go full tilt meltdown. I'm glad some realize we are here to discuss the good bad and meh...regardless of how much of the bad we've already had to discuss. Keep it up.

Good grief.....shall I take my toys elsewhere.....?

Dont hold back.....K?

it makes fantastic propellent for potato guns as well..... A friend told me......

Dr. No already said no so all the debbies can just jump to #7, cause 90% of the time they are right....no reasoning needed. FWIW..Im just happy to be tracking something other than warmth. Personally i dont get wound up on run to run shifts....even when they look good for me. I've run out of deaths to die over this sport decades ago. I'm numb to it but love the chase.

hence the "lose it" phase I referenced. If history serves any purpose in model watching....this should come north.

speakin of....whered he go?

and we are entering the lose it phase on the models. We've seen that before. Not sure if new goofus has that fixed or not.

still has the storm.....all we need to worry about right now. I dont mean that in a snippy way, just saying we need the storm and as long as its there and coming from the south, thats the focus to me.

i too have flown in snow, but unless its a doozy, its of no worry and has had no effect whatsoever....guess i'm just lucky.

now we just need a happy hour shellackin before it all goes down the sh!tter Mindy you I'm not honkin any crazy snow horns....I'm just happy to see legit threat windows and storms within....thats all

well then you all should be rather rested this year..... just sayin......

a 964mb low sitting 100 miles off the south jerzzzy coast in peak snow climo....sign my ass up PLEASE

this is the one I'm getting jacked up about.

You know what?? Your tired of chasing 10 day Unicorns?? I'm not even looking much beyond until we get into next week, as I think that as long as we enter this new pattern thats been advertised coupled w/ our back weighted winters, that we may be seeing a decent window open. Sure hope so.

when we see MA and SE snow totals popping up like this....its time to get the coffee ready. Lotsa tracking to be done. Some of the 500 maps for next week are just beauts.

if the gfs is onto anything, we have plenty of opportunities to score in the next couple weeks. Really liking the 2/5 and beyond time frame. That pic above is drool worthy.

I'll tell ya this....if the 6z Goofus has any merit to what its showing, I'm gonna be happier than a clam. That was one of the snowiest runs i've seen in a long time. Train of opportunities....and a doozy right in the middle 2/7 weekend.