pasnownut

and to further that point, at different times, it was technically being shown as an A, and not a B, but has vacillated back n forth to some degree. I'm glad we lost the B look with further S track and less worry for transfer. Some of us have enough to worry about (SE'rs). .

Once again, props to the GFS Op for sniffin this one out. 6 days ago current

my concern is the speed of the storm as we lose a good chunk of white qpf to warm thermals and waiting for transfer. 1-2 hours off and boom becomes bust for some of us southers.

Noone here wants him to be wrong.....and to your surprise, i enjoy his reads a LOT and think he's a great met....but he's not infallible, and it happens. All of us know its alot more than just model speak that get us storms, but sometimes the feel in here is that we shouldn't discuss unless the weather gods say its happening. This storm is a good example, and part of the fun for those of us that know were C team players (at best). We come here to chat up weather, and IMO that shouldnt be discouraged....but debated often. Thats the fun. And fwiw I hope is early spring call bust badly as well....as we arent sure about next week let alone next month. If I were a betting man, more chips would fall on his side of the bet. Hope you understand my perspective. .

People would ALWAYS take an "all clear" over getting caught off guard. Thats just common logic, nothing more.

just because its snowing, doesnt mean schools should close. there is plenty enough info out there for schools to make best logical call with said info. People know that its weather, and not a perfect science....despite techno advances. remember some of us walked uphill.....both ways.....in FEET of snow, and look how we turned out.

LMAO.... best answer I've got....probably the shorter of the 2.

I'm still nervous that I'll be smelling the snow and watching....and waiting, while peeps 20 miles to my north are in thumptown.

Its tough, but its the public sectors responsibility to inform people of the POTENTIAL challenges.... People would rather know of the possibility of something happening and it not, than to be caught off guard. That's not an argument, thats just common sense. Most outside the weather boards dont care about who got an inch more or less....they arent weenies like us. They need to be informed and can despite having an app that thinks for them, can come to their own conclusions or plan for as best possible.

their responsibility is no different than ANY of the other regional NWS offices. IF/when they bust...so be it....everyone does, but to be so late to the game all the time...not sure how that is defendable. Not picking an argument, but merely stating a fact that many here agree with.

Since I said I was done posting Lanco centric stuff, this is a perfect depiction of how close our county is between the haves and have nots.. Edited for not looking before posting. Fingers faster than brain.

Icon also ticks SE for tomorrow, which gives us on the razors edge, a little hope. Again, just showing for current trend/consensus. 6z 12z

FWIW Rgem eeked a touch SE, and while not great for us, I'm following for slight trends/adjustments/continuity purposes. In summary, it didnt go the wrong way...

My last Lanco centric post, as this storm is about all of us, but we literally could have an event where Quarryville is brown, and Denver/Cocalico has 4-6" paste bomb. Wouldn't be too surprising.

thats normally right over my house. Happy it went west.... sorry

Lanco's forecaster said not to believe the models.....so don't . Truth told, this one has been a nail biter for some time, notsomuch trackwise or evolution, but as we lack antecedent cold, and the waiting game can be tough thermally down here. We know that all too well. Whether lanco gets into the goods or not, many just to our north and west should enjoy an nice event.

need quicker transfer to coastal to get column to cool. slower transfer is kiss of death. and thats a tough one, as we've been burnt far too many times waiting...

and THATS the big rub for many of us CTP'rs...sterling taunton, mt holly all post perty colors all AROUND us well in advance, while we wait to see what color we get....if any.

itll tick north for nooners or Hh. Right where we want it.

Par for the course. Been that way for....ever. Its been said many times by many of us, I don't envy the position of pros/public service/safety folk that are responsible for getting the word out, but yeah even for southern tier folks, they should at least post an advisory with disclaimer that were riding the line, and while it may not happen....it may, so dont be surprised if your wet gets white. Specially with morning rush smack in the middle of it.

as I said a couple times now, the normally bashed GFS Op at meduim/longer leads has had a decent run in the medium range this season, and while I know it shows what we want to see, there is valid reason the hug the hell outta it....for now.

Enough ticks south to say nooners went the right way for us, as we've got several of em showing hits of various proportions.

I'll take it for now.

For storm #1 i agree, but #2 and PDIII look fine in the cold department.

Really rooting for the GFS to be on point. Further SSE with transfer and keeps this under us. I'll take that at 5 days out.