pasnownut

nooner NAM looks more believable thermally, and is elevation event. SLP a smidge stronger and easter fetch cooks the snow goose.

lol. That IS foul.... Been through that plant many moons ago. Wanted to burn my clothing when I got home.

IF one believes....yeah, it did look good, but as i've always suggested, its gotta fit the pattern, and to me...I smell something foul..

Thats what makes more sense based on pattern. I like to see the blocking, but its a tad north IMO. Thermally, this panel seals the casket for me. 12hrs later...still cookin

upcoming weekend event has been a wonky evolution (transfer wise). Once that gets sorted out a bit better, maybe some get luck and freshen up. While I'll concede to the transfer, blocking up north has me scratchin my noggin as to why this will happen as depicted. also thermally, 700's are okish, but 850's are really lagging for se 1/3 or state. I wanna buy what its selling, but I'll hold for now. FWIW 6z nam came around a bit and is notably SE of 0z. I'll keep watchin...got nothin better to do while its raining.

who you kiddin..... you'd drink to many things..........

guess i shoulda looked at this post before i posted my previous one. GFS/CMC favored northers, this one favors many. You just found your model to hug. Just peeked on pivotal and it looks like ULL dives in to save the day for us...thermally. Not sure why it slides SE at 96 as the HP up north is too far N to force it under, but hey....what do I know. We'll take it.

My yard was showing signs of caving....to the grass, but like yours was still holding up where it wasnt thin. Tonight will be a snow eater. I've seen snow otg for about a week, so its a win for me no matter. Hoping we are trackin again soon. This weekend is a sneaky surprise for the northers (as currently modeled, but would be backend loving for the lucky ones), as cold has been scoured and is gone leading up to the Sunday potential and with a cutter/redeveloper, I fear cold is too late to do much cept for elevation folks, but I've been wrong before.

Thats a decent look right there.

many 384hr 500 maps come to mind.... Nice well placed PNA ridge in the west west based NAO or neg AO active STJ across the south. I can draw but I hope that works for your visual needs

and for any wondering what "wonky ass looks" definition is. See below. F'd up omega block is also one that comes to mind.

We've actually had a couple decent looks so far this season that had the 3 in play, just off on timing. With the active STJ, all we need is for the wonky ass 500 looks to settle down, get the PNA back to + and then maybe....just maybe.

i got a 1/2 hog last year. First time i've ever gotten custom meat. I will do that again. lotsa good eats. Oh and we'll start a gofundme for the cash. Much easier gift to get (than triple phaser).

all good pal.... just having some fun while we wait for better weather......

this post for 1000......

carp? is that in the sucker family.......

I'm going whole hog on the 9th.... anyone wanna box him in and take 2/11??

and fwiw, I'm not doom n gloom, just being a realist. And the realist in me just looked at the tellies, and all is surely not lost. AO/NAO headed neg in Feb, will get cold back/closer PNA headed neg - not good but AO/NAO could offset MJO headed twds p7 may help as well Unfortunately MJO/NAO are volatile and can shart da bed w/ the best of em, but IF one believes what the tellie ouija board suggests....it should be more workable as we turn the calendar.

Don't "like" this post, but I agree w/ you. While I've taken a break from models (while enjoying winter IMBY), after lookin at overnighters, this weekend event would have been sneaking one in during a shit pattern. Next week may try to do the same, but we need wholesale changes in pattern before we can get better looks and thats a couple weeks out. If we can time something just right/thread the needle, then maybe, but those odds are a crap shoot down here.

Here is another that I use in case anyone want to look at a couple. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml Nice winter weekend. Now we wash, rinse and ...... repeat? Hoping this weeks warmup is short lived and we get the repeat sooner than later.

When I measured around 2:45 we were a tick under 4”. Guessing 1/3-1/2” addl at most. Still very light snow n I’m loving every flake.

Was just going to add that it’s snowing nicely (albeit rather fine). All shoveled plowed etc has turned white here as well. Enjoy every flake. Might be a bit till we see more falling.

Enjoy time w/ your son. Safe travels. 13:1 sounds rather reasonable for the whole event total.

You bring some good stuff to the group. Glad you are with us.

as well you should. Really light snow here and holes in radar say were close to a wrap here. Last measure for me was a pinch under 4" and it absolutely was a win for most of us as per obs that are being shared. Just got done doing my neighborhood snowblowin n cracked my last mad elf in celebration of a snowy weekend.