pasnownut

Sounds like we look at the same thing in situ's like this, and why I look at "snow" maps, for that very reason, even if I've no idea what rendition of frozen is falling. When they eek south, or hold, that's the sign us frozen lovers look for, and that CAD is doin its thingy...or not.

antecedent cold and how long it can hold w/ this CAD scenario makes me think things might just come in a smidge colder, and we all know in close situ's like this 1-2 deg's is a big difference. if one toggles through the 700/850's youll note that there is much more of a west (700's) and west to s/w at 850's component and no strong southerly fetch. Thats what i'm hangin my hat on anyways. Its gonna be a close one for us, but up in the Skook and points NE, I'd think they stay largely frozen at surface, even if its oh so shallow. the warmup is rather brief as well, and that 50's stuff looks largely gone for the easter folks. we may need some 40's to crack the ice a bit.

If 1/2 of that verifies, and you add some Zr to the mix....that might be a problem. Glad I brought some more wood down last night.

Ice Ice Baby all i've got to add to the disco....(see what i did there)?

Yeah busted over here as well. I saw 45 on digi car thermo at 330. Forecast was for low 50’s. Cad baby.

Looks pretty shallow to me. I’d wager zr with some pingers if qpf is stoudt enough. I’d like that freezing a little closer to the 700s for a pingerfest. Regardless looking icy for a bit.

As I'm sure you know, it really is dependent on antecedent cold coupled w/ strength of SLP, and ability for WAA. This one is coming from our WSW, an not up from the south. I pay attention to that because while were not really cold, the warm nose based on winds and weak SLP, may have a little tougher time scouring valleys as you get further east. Were it a strong southerly wind component, I'd think we'd lose 800/925's a bit quicker. That's just where my head is anyways, and why me thinks cold might be a bit tougher to scour. Gonna be really close tho.

While I love all things winter...I am no fan of a crippling one. Just a perty one, that is followed by cold and snow for the pertiest winter landscapes we can get.

When up in the Dack's this past weekend, I had a one on one w/ MO nature, and asked for some of that deep winter beauty to head south for us.... I made a deal with her, but can't tell you what I owe her in trade. If she delivers....you're welcome in advance.

based on setup, its not a strong cad signal, but it is there, so icy lovers may get some fun. CAD is often undermodelled, so we'll see. Yeah some of the snow maps for next week look crazy. If a third of that verified, I'd be happy....really happy.

I’ll also add that the other day I suggested the cold may hold just long enough but feel that may b slipping away a bit. That’s why I’m headed to nny instead of n pa tomorrow.

With so/nao haeded into + territory that’s gonna b a big ask.

and I'll add lastly, if we had a banter thread, I'd not have sift through the bullshit, but since we don't....please stop....or make your banter thread that i'll never read cause like it or not, your my weather pals...no matter what side of the F'd up fence you sit on. Drops Mic....

I always chuckle when sides are formed, and attacks lobbed to the other side....that usually sits quietly and takes them. Its tiring...really. Thats whats really sad IMO. The rest is fearmongering, because both sides are F'd up......really bad and one side has to fix the others mess (that goes both ways). To bad some cant/don't wanna see outta both sides of the glass. My political post of the year is done. Back to weather. Headed to Tug Hill tomorrow night. Havent been there for 17 years. Looking forward to feet of snow OTG.

While I no longer head "down" into their sub.....(see what i did there), I can only imagine. I miss great convo w/ the normal good ones, but the rest was just too much for my sanity. I've said it a bunch of times, as i've learned this long ago, in the infamous words of JB, what a model shows can only be considered, if it "fits the pattern". While I dont like what we just saw, technically it fits w/ NAO headed ++. NS forcing liftin out makes the wagons west scenario something to surely consider. Just seems like the NS storm shredder/suppressor gets cut off really quick, and me thinks somethings amuck and as previously stated, IF it ejects a bit sooner, they they might be having something to hang their snow weenies onto. It could go the other way though. Just gotta see how strong n long the cold can hold. It can be stubborn to scour, and CAD is something that this potential event would have to work around.

Yep, and thats no bueno as it gets us into return flow and nudges that vort waayyy west. With blocking liftin out, it has to be considered I guess.

CMC also shows delayed ejection of cutoff SLP in SW, and offers something similar. We know cutoffs often get stuck on the models, and while NAO is lifting out, flow prior is/was progressive, and while I can see what they are saying vs changing base state, if it ejects sooner, it'd be a potentially nice chance at something. I'm just not buying the bottled up look in the SW. Cutter option, yeah thats totally possible. I'm just thinking timeing is wonky. Thats all.

Nooner GFS is one wonky ass evolution for next week. IF that happens as modeled, it'll just be another "can you belive that sh!t" moment in the chronicals of how to get screwed in winter. Although I can see what its saying (matching up to base state...specially NAO lifting out wise), but I'm not buyin what its sellin.

Thats funny. I thought the very same thing on way in yesterday. One mornings cold spot, was the next days warm spot, and vice versa. But, yeah, no matter the winners n losers in the number contest, its plenty friggin cold enough no matter where you are.

on drive into work, temp range was -2 to +3. -2 in same area that had -11 yesterday. One thing that makes me feel better about the warmup, is that itll be getting back towards normal, but with the dense cold, and frozen ground, it should help w/ snowpack retention for a while anyway. Hoping the overnight Euro wasnt sippin on too much Vodka. We'd take that one.

My woodstove is hungry as well. Every morning, barely enough coals to kickstart the next load. I'm burning ash (unlimited supply - free), so not complaining, but I'm burnin though the wood right now. Still have 3.5 qds left for rest of winter so not worried.

Thats my first thoughts as well. Verbatim, thats a nice setup and CAD would likely do pretty well at least for part of the event

I hope youre right. I think only worry is that once NAO goes into + terrirory during that timeframe, it then is a matter of what happens after that. NAO as of today looks to head further into + territory and coupled w/ the AO being slated to also be slightly +, that could bring the boundary further north, and is something i'm watchin for in the next few days. Neut PNA is only ok if we have some NS forcing, and if not, pac origin air likely wins out. also, IF we can get MJO headed back twds 7/8, I'll feel a bit better and will have trackin pants close by.

those cuttoffs often seem to get hung up (known euro bias of yesteryear), but looping through it appears that its coming out in pieces, until blocking weakens and yep, it cuts. IF we could hang onto that blocking a bit longer, outside chance at some fun here for next weekend.

rolling forward, I think we'd want smaller events, as we lose blocking, and big ones likely will cut. Fortunaly neutral PNA keeps flow flat and hopefully keeps NS influence close enough that we dont scorch, and have a chance at snow pack retention (some likely to lose, but likely not all of the state). Seeing the MJO in low amp maritime makes me think WAR may not come roaring back....yet.