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Blizzard of 93

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Everything posted by Blizzard of 93

  1. Central PA - March 2018

    They should be more excited considering the overnight models, plus the Euro ensemble mean has the LSV at 6-8 inches of snow & the Control has 10-12 for the LSV. Even if we get half of that,it would still be a good storm for the time of year. CTP “most likely” map has near 1 inch for most of us, while the “high end” has near 10 inches for most of us.
  2. Central PA - March 2018

    0z globals were nice for the LSV. The Euro improved again & the UKMET would be a dream come true for snow with a LSV bullseye!
  3. Central PA - March 2018

    I think this ends up an overall LSV special. Did anyone see the 18z short term extended Canadian High Res that was posted in the Mid Atlantic thread ?!? It had the 30-40 mm QPF over the LSV, which upon checking a quick google calculator to convert, equates to 1.2 to 1.5 inches of Precip, which sounds just like the 18z NAM.
  4. Central PA - March 2018

    Here is good close up of the 18z NAM. It looks like the Canadian last night & the good Euro & GFS runs from a couple of days ago! Great trends this afternoon!
  5. Central PA - March 2018

    The EPS & Euro Control also came way northat 12z & puts the LSV squarely in the game for 6 or more inches of snow.
  6. Central PA - March 2018

    We were never out of the game...we still have plenty of time to end up in an ideal spot for this one!
  7. Central PA - March 2018

    I agree, even with the UKie, the LSV is only 75 miles from the 1 inch QPF line. We just need a subtle shift to be in the game. If I was near I-80, I would be concerned, but I think will shift north to get at least up to the Harrisburg to Lebanon area.
  8. Central PA - March 2018

    I agree with your comments. Harrisburg tends to struggle with more of a Southwest to Northeast type cutoff, for example say I-95 as a dividing line. This time, as with December of 09, the early Feb. 2010 storms & even January of 2016,the cutoff is a true South to North cutoff. The heavy precip that the NAMs show extend the whole way back to far western MD & WV. We just needs general 50 mile or so jog north, & we are in the good 6-12 inch snow zone that is currently showing from Rt. 30 & south. I like where we stand for now.
  9. Central PA - March 2018

    Yes, I agree 100 % ! It would nice to just have a low coming out of the 4 corners area of the southwest that travels to Texas , picks up gulf moisture & then heads to the Carolina coast & then comes up to the mouth of the Delaware Bay. Of course with a good High parked over Quebec ! Ok, back to reality ! Maybe 1 time this year, complicated will work out for us !
  10. Central PA - March 2018

    The latest EPS & GEFS keep the LSV in the game. This is yet another complicated multiple part storm. If the pieces phase together just right, we get the Canadian solution last night. Let’s hope we get good model runs today !
  11. Central PA - March 2018

    The 0z Canadian run just showed exactly what this storm is capable of producing. The GFS & Euro were showing this look a couple of days ago. Some of the EPS & GEFS individual members were showing it earlier today as well. Hopefully the Euro & UKMET join the party soon!
  12. Central PA - March 2018

    Yes, the 0z NAM actually went north about 20 miles with the overall snow line in PA, with the best snow between the PA turnpike to about I -70 in MD. It gets 5 inches to the Harrisburg area. The second trailing storm potential a few hours later is what could make this a memorable storm. If that develops & stalls along the VA Capes, we could approach those prolific snow amounts that the GFS & Euro were showing a few days ago.
  13. Central PA - March 2018

    Upon further review of the EPS, it moved the 2 inch snow line from around Route 30 on the 0z run last night & took it the whole way up to around I-80 for the 12z run today. That’s only about a 80 mile or so swing north in 1 run !
  14. Central PA - March 2018

    The LSV is also near the max snow zone on both the 12z EPS & the 18z GEFS. About 50% of the EPS members & about 75% of the GEFS members bring good snow amounts to the LSV, including some really good hits. I think the LSV will end up in a good spot for this event. Let’s hope the ensembles lead the way to a good 0z run !
  15. Central PA - March 2018

    The EPS went way north at 12z. This is far from over.
  16. Central PA - March 2018

    The GFS & Canadian at 12z have the same general set up, with the Canadian being a little further north with the initial low, so it is a crowd pleaser in here with 6 inches up to I-80 & 8-10 inches towards the LSV. We also have the NAM on our side. We may be moving away from a HECS potential, but I think we have a chance at a 6-10 inch storm that I think most of us could live with.
  17. Central PA - March 2018

    Many have commented that the Euro has not Been the same since the upgrade a year or 2 ago. A few times this winter the Euro has called for snow on the same day as the storm was taking place, only to have it miss. It is not the guru that it used to be for eastern US weather.
  18. Central PA - March 2018

    I like the look of the NAM. It rides the initial low into eastern Kentucky & then develops a low in the Carolinas that travels up off of the Delmarva coast before heading east. If that verifies, The LSV will be in a great spot for a 6-12 inch type of storm.
  19. Central PA - March 2018

    Hopefully the global models are in their mid- range crisis with the shifting south of the storm overnight. We have seen this movie before over the years... The NAM (long range NAM, yes I know..) has a nice swath of snow through CTP on Tuesday that delivered 8-10 inches of snow to most of us. Let’s hope we reverse the trend today!
  20. Central PA - March 2018

    Yes, that is the best look that we have seen at a 5 day lead this season!
  21. Central PA - March 2018

    The 18z GEFS is absolutely beautiful for CTP. This is not skewed by 1 or 2 ensemble members either. 18 of the 20 members deliver good snow to most of us!
  22. Central PA - March 2018

    I think we are in a good spot in CTP for this one this time... 6z GFS shifted north compared to 0z, but it still delivered 6-12 inches of snow just north of the PA-MD line . Right now we are in the zone that can afford wobbles north or south. The problem with the last few storms is that we were on the edges of the good stuff & got burnt. maybe this is our time !?!?!
  23. Central PA - March 2018

    The GFS & Euro tonight delivered around a foot of snow with the storm next week to the LSV ! Their tracks are similar & things are trending in our favor so far with this storm!
  24. Central PA - March 2018

    Most of the models today put the southern half of PA in the game for a snowstorm next week. I like where we stand with the bullseye for snow averaging out to near the PA-MD line on most models today. We are around 4 to 5 days out, so hopefully this will finally be the storm this month to put us in the jackpot zone !
  25. Central PA - March 2018

    The latest runs of the EPS & GEFS look good for most of CTP for next week. About half of both of these model’s ensemble members give CTP at least a few inches of snow. They both track a low into the Ohio Valley which then transfers to the VA Capes. I think we could get a good front end dump of snow & then it all depends on the final track of the secondary coastal to see if this could deliver more snow to us. There is still plenty of time & I think we will see a lot of shifting back & forth until the final track locks in this weekend.