Blizzard of 93

Overnight ensembles still say that we have a chance for Winter weather early next week. Ops continue to waffle back & forth. Let’s see what 12z says later on.

MDT is at 23.8 as of today, which is 1 inch above normal for the season to date. We still have 5 realistic weeks to score more snow. Hopefully we score enough early next week to get to climo average. Then, anything after that would be gravy if we can get one more window later in March. This Winter deserves to have us at least at normal snow, so hopefully we get there.

Good write up from Mt. Holly on the early next week potential… However, a front will send more cold air into the region later Sunday, and hot on its heals some guidance depicts a wave of low pressure riding eastward into the region for Monday. With fresh cold air in place, more wintry weather is certainly possible. Guidance is having trouble with handling multiple pieces of energy, with some models showing multiple waves, while others focus on just one, but suffice it to say, there is a risk of wintry weather Monday and Tuesday. One notable trend in our favor is that most guidance does show a warming trend as the system moves through, such that towards mid-week we should mostly be too warm for anything but rain. We may have several inches of snow to get through before then, however. We`ll be watching this one closely for potential headlines.

The latest 3 Major ensembles each get solid Advisory level snow to all of CTP by Tuesday afternoon. The main takeaway is that we are certainly in the game for an event chance early next week.

Early next week still looks very interesting on the GFS & most ensembles. Timing of the cold press from the approaching High & the strength of the wave will determine if we have the chance to score meaningful snow. Hopefully this trends favorably for us.

No dusting or evidence of any flakes here last night either. The Old line “Never count on a Clipper” rings true again.

Lol, just what they needed…

18z Euro brings a coating to many of us by tomorrow am with the overnight Clipper.

Lol, come on now, I went lower than many in the January storm forecast contest for MDT & won it with my 12.5 guess. You would have won the contest this time if we had done one this past weekend. I look forward to the next chance!

I think we have a long way to go until true Spring arrives this season. We have a few potential Winter events to track through next week. Then, we likely warm up for a week to 10 days. After that, the Teleconnections & MJO forecast indicate that mid March through at least early April could be a return to a colder pattern with the trough in the east. I think we are tracking Winter storm chances through Easter week in early April this year. It fits the same pattern that we have had since around Thanksgiving. Any warm ups have been brief & i think that continues.

Early next week still looks interesting on most models for a snow to mix scenario with a wave approaching from the center of the country.

As @Mount Joy Snowman mentioned, most overnight models shifted south overnight for the Thursday potential light event chance, but close enough to keep an eye on. The 6z AI Euro & AI GFS are much closer for Thursday.

The 0z NAM & 0z GFS both bring snow to southern PA for the Thursday chance.

I’ll take it after the potential of getting shut out was on the table with no snow sticking up until sundown last evening.

Sorry to hear about this! It is a tough no win situation many times. Most people have no idea how many pieces must come together for a Winter storm to materialize in a localized area. When you add in significant business decisions that can impact the bottom line, it can get really complicated & polarizing.

Here is the 18z AI EPS. Not much snow this run, but plenty of precip to tap into if it takes the right track, maybe there could be some potential.

The 18z AI Euro was well north of the Op Euro.

3.8 in Marysville for my yard. Frustrating storm for sure, but at least most us still ended up with a solid Advisory level storm, but it could have been so much more with a few adjustments. On to the next one! This Thursday is looking like our next chance.

Good night & you should be able to add to your total in the morning with several more hours to go until the snow wraps up towards daybreak. Tomorrow, we get back to tracking the next chapter of this Winter.

Moderate snow in Marysville continues at 11:45 pm. Eyeballing about 2 inches. It looks beautiful outside with snow clinging to everything.

CTP recently updated their discussion.

DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Light to moderate snow continues tonight as the western edge of the precip shield from a strong coastal storm impacts central PA. Rain turned to snow across the lower Susq valley around 5 PM. Since sunset, accumulation rates have been near 0.5"/hr in some of the snow bands across portions of the Lower Susq Valley and farther north towards Schuylkill Co. A secondary band in central PA, located within an inverted trough, has been producing snowfall at rates of 0.25-0.5"/hr. Expect similar intensities through about 2-3 AM as easterly isentropic ascent at midlevels is maximized. Still a medium chance (40-70 pct) that 1"/hr rates push into far eastern Lancaster County between midnight tonight and sunrise on Monday, but by and large the heaviest snow bands will miss our CWA to the east. Storm total snow (which includes snow that fell and subsequently melted this AM) is expected to range from 4-8" from Schuylkill Co south into Lancaster County and southeastern York County, with locally higher amounts possible in northeast Lancaster County and the higher terrain of Schuylkill County. Totals of 3-8" still expected in the higher terrain of the central ridge and valley region intersected by the north-south oriented snow band in the inverted trough. Lower amounts at lower elevations and on paved surfaces. Much of the accumulation is over by sunrise Monday, with lighter snow continuing through the morning in spots.

Come on heavier band… keep drifting south…just another 20 miles…you can do it! (now I’m talking to the radar…lol…this storm really has got to me…)

I like the band on radar that looks to be working its way south along Rt. 15 in Snyder & northern Dauphin & Perry county. Hopefully that works its way soon into our area & the Harrisburg area.

Moderate snow with decent flake size continues in Marysville. Eyeballing a little over an inch on the car tops & yard. Roads & sidewalks are covered, but a little less on them due to taking longer to cave.