0z GFS for the 15th has a low approaching from the south that rides up & off of the coast. It was closer to something more this run, but most of us at this point would take it as depicted this run.
The Euro Weeklies today look even better in terms of temperatures & precip for the 7 day period ending January 31.
Bottom line if the ensembles & Weeklies have the right general idea, we should have chances for Winter storms for mid month through the end of the month.
Today’s Euro Weeklies agree with liking this same period for a better looking amount of precip with below normal temperatures for the 7 day window ending the 25th.
As you mentioned, ensemble guidance again today showed a workable pattern for week 2 that should offer chances for Winter storms.
Good agreement on the ensembles as well.
As you mentioned, ensemble guidance again today showed a workable pattern for week 2 that should offer chances for Winter storms.
Good agreement on the ensembles as well.
12z EPS day 10 to 15 still looks workable and day 15 ends on a good note as well.
It’s just a matter of time until something trackable shows on the Op run again.
12z EPS day 10 to 15 still looks workable and day 15 ends on a good note as well.
It’s just a matter of time until something trackable shows on the Op run again.
The Ops are changing run to run.
Ensembles -see my post above & yesterday & the day before…- as they have shown for several days, are showing a workable pattern starting early next week.
What exactly am I supposed to be upset about this morning…?
The better workable pattern is moving up closer in time.
Here are the day 8 to 13 looks for the 5 day period on the 0z EPS, 6z AI EPS & 6z GEFS.
12z Euro has a good looking Winter storm chance on the 14th for us this run with a juicy system approaching from the south that passes underneath of us.
CTP had this great post.
I certainly wouldn’t mind a 13-14 repeat here, except this time add on the 3 March events that just missed us to our south in MD.
12z Synopsis
EPS, EPS AI, CMC ensemble, & GEFS AI ensemble all have a very workable & generally similar look in the day 10 to 15 period.
Only the GEFS looked different…but @CAPE said that it looked workable as well.