Blizzard of 93

How about the “evidence” on the best ensemble in the world, the EPS from 12z today. By March 14, the colder pattern is emerging & remains in place at the end of the run on day 15.

No final grade from me until April 10th, lol!

Lol, lots of “evidence” will be posted later this evening showing why the cold & potential snow chances could be coming back by mid month.

Here’s the 6z GFS for overnight into Tuesday.

0z GFS is bringing a little more juice with wave 2, bringing it in earlier with a little more snow this run for the LSV .

By next Friday, the cold returns. It is showing across all ensemble guidance that the trough is back in the east by mid month. We are far from done with Winter.

I’ve seen final grades by posters scattered around the various regional threads. My point is that there is plenty of time for grading, when we are actually done.

Well, like I said, lots of Winter to go…lol! People should wait until April 10th to give a final Winter grade in my opinion. I have enjoyed the couple of warm days that we’ve had in the last week or so & I’ll enjoy the warm up later this week, all while tracking the chance of every last flake until the true end of possibilities next month.

Well, I’ll track Winter weather in the Spring thread, lol!

18z GFS just increased snow amounts a bit for the LSV for Tuesday am.

CTP is forecasting the kitchen sink for the Harrisburg area tomorrow night into Tuesday am: Monday Night A chance of freezing rain and sleet after 1am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 27. Southeast wind 7 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Tuesday Snow showers and freezing rain, possibly mixed with sleet before 10am, then rain or freezing rain between 10am and 1pm, then rain showers after 1pm. High near 40. Southeast wind 6 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

21z SREF brings the goods on Tuesday am for 1 to 2 inches across the region.

21z SREF brings the goods on Tuesday am for 1 to 2 inches across the region.

We still have to deal with whatever Tuesday am brings before our short lived Spring break… Hazardous Weather Outlook Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 1203 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 PAZ024>028-033>036-056>059-063>066-011715- Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton- Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York- Lancaster- 1203 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. A wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain is possible on Tuesday before changing to or ending as rain.

18z RGEM puts down 2 to 3 inches for many before the mix.

18z RGEM puts down 2 to 3 inches across the LSV before the mix.

18z NAM

Beautiful day indeed! Nice Spring preview, but it’s not going to last. Some people will be in shock with the temps the next couple of days. Short range models are showing snow to mix on Tuesday am.

12z AI EPS is colder than the regular EPS at 360.

12z EPS surface temps are near normal in the east at 360.

See you in mid March sir. We are not done tracking yet!

6z GFS at this model cycle offers our best hope for some snow early next week. It takes the first wave on Monday to our south, but it quickly brings in the second wave by Tuesday am. This second wave starts as snow & then changes over to a mix then rain.

Early next week will be interesting to see how it unfolds. Models today seem to be juicing up the second wave on Tuesday, but the cold may not hold enough causing snow to mix to rain depending on the timing, intensity & track.

18z Euro, AI Euro, EPS & AI EPS each keep us in the game for snow chances early next week. Still lots of disagreement on strength & position of the High & the strength & latitude of the wave or waves as they approach our region.

Overnight ensembles still say that we have a chance for Winter weather early next week. Ops continue to waffle back & forth. Let’s see what 12z says later on.