Blizzard of 93

Lol, Lanco is looking good for the event.

18z RGEM

Indeed

It’s a start, but they need to add Dauphin & Skook… I’m not sure they are aware that most of the population of Dauphin county is in the southern half… They just updated with this: NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Mid afternoon changes. Some model guidance has a bit heavier QPF across the northern edge of where we had an advisory out for the far SE counties, thus adding in a couple more counties into the advisory.

What’s wrong with an Advisory for 1 to 3 with a few spots maybe seeing 4 ? I don’t understand their reasoning. We don’t live in the mountains down here, so the message needs to be clear for average people that don’t pay close attention to the weather. Likely we’ll get an Advisory for Dauphin, Lebanon & Skook as the event is underway, which would be too late to help people with travel decisions.

A few more counties have been graced with a HWO… this Not good enough messaging… Most People need to see at least an Advisory to consider not going out or altering their plans, especially on a Saturday night near the holidays… Hazardous Weather Outlook Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 245 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 PAZ057>059-063-064-141945- Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams- 245 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Brief heavy snow is possible this evening and early tonight. Most locations will pick up 1 to 2 inches, but spot amounts of 3 or 4 are possible, especially on the higher elevations. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

I’m happy that our Lancaster & York posters seem to be in a good spot for this one. MDT should be able to add to the seasonal tally as well.

18z National Blend of Models.

I think CTP & local news in the LSV need to update their forecasts based on short term modeling last night & today. I’m seeing a lot of “coating to an inch or two” forecasts. Most model have a good chunk of the LSV in the 2 to 4 inch range. This of course is a busy time of year with people out shopping & holiday parties, etc. The media & CTP need to put better messaging out today in my opinion which could help keep some people safe.

It should just be a matter of time until CTP expands the Advisory At least into Dauphin, Lebanon & Skook.

Great write up! But I must ask the ageless running joke on the weather boards… Lol… ”How much for Philly?!”

12z National Blend of Models has its best look yet especially back towards the Harrisburg area with almost 3 inches back there now.

You have 10:1 Chris posted Kuchera which will factor in the helpful ratios in this scenario.

6z RGEM & 6z Euro AI remain consistent. 6z Euro AI improved for the Harrisburg area.

Very nice! Let’s goooo!

The 0z Euro & GFS still are advertising potential chances near Christmas.

Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 1114 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025 PAZ065-066-131700- /O.EXB.KCTP.WW.Y.0025.251214T0000Z-251214T1800Z/ York-Lancaster- Including the cities of Lancaster and York 1114 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 2 and 3 inches. Locally higher spot amounts are possible. * WHERE...Lancaster and York Counties. * WHEN...From 7 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute.

All dreaming aside, we will warm up this week, but the pattern reshuffle will keep Canada cold. The core of the warm up will be in the Midwest & South. The northeast should still be able to occasionally tap into some of the available Canadian cold. With well timed Highs nosing in from eastern Canada, we could still have Winter weather chances once we head into Christmas week.

Meanwhile, the 18z GFS allows us to dream a little dream by showing a snow chance on Christmas Day! My dream has always been to watch the kids open their presents enjoy a nice holiday feast & then let it snow in the late afternoon through Christmas night. The GFS just showed exactly that scenario… which I will enjoy for a few hours, lol.

I still like my call of 1 to 3 for the LSV with a few lucky spots in York or Lancaster getting 4. The lower amounts of the range are likely to be north & west of Harrisburg. The higher end of the range is favored towards eastern York & Lanco. I think MDT has a decent chance of getting 2 inches. The RGEM & the Euro AI have been consistent the last couple of days & most closely resemble my current thoughts on this event.

The 6z RGEM brings a widespread 1 to 3 to 3 to the LSV.

CTP point & click for Harrisburg: Saturday Night Snow showers. Low around 24. Northwest wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

0z NAM brings 2 to 3 inches for most of the LSV on Sunday am.

The 30 day temperature anomaly on today’s Euro Weeklies is near normal for the period from late December into late January for this region. Hopefully we have chances for Winter storms with near normal being good enough in January.