Blizzard of 93

All of these snow maps by pros & great posters are bringing a tear to my eye over my lunch break! Thanks all!

Nice! The 6z Euro Op was its best run yet for the Harrisburg area & still really good for most.

Yes & the Canadian was close too for late next week.

6z GFS continues to juice up. Warning level snow roughly up to the turnpike this run.

I can’t fall back asleep with this house rattling wind!

6z HRRR really increased totals further north into CTP this run.

Great post from @psuhoffman that I wanted to share here: “I don’t know how much it will juice up but I think for places where the surface temps are below freezing the kuchera is under doing the ratios. The DGZ is plenty cold and saturated. Good lift. That matters more. Yea the surface temps might cut it down from 18-1 to 15-1 but somewhere that gets a combo of both cold enough and best lift will get ~15-1 to 18-1 with .3-.45 qpf that’s my 4-8” max band call right there. Where exactly that ends up is hard to say. But it’s likely near the northern periphery of the higher qpf zone.”

Here are the 6z NAMs with comments on ratios from PSU Hoffman.

0z Euro

I just got woken up by house shaking wind at 3:30 am !

Best GFS run of the day.

Do you pay the $100 for his expertise?

Same here in Marysville Friday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 29. Northwest wind around 6 mph becoming calm after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Here’s the 3k NAM

21z SREF improved over its previous runs for the LSV. I only have it in 10-1, so bump amounts accordingly with ratio help.

He is on fire tonight with some great Twitter posts. I like this one…

Here is the official Watch. You can only “see” the “blue” Watches on York & Lancaster on the county map graphics because of their @canderson Wind Advisory is taking precedence tonight!

Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 630 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2024 PAZ033>036-063>066-161130- /O.NEW.KCTP.WS.A.0004.240217T0000Z-240217T1200Z/ Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- Including the cities of Somerset, Bedford, McConnellsburg, Chambersburg, Carlisle, Gettysburg, York, and Lancaster 630 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2024 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches possible. * WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From Friday evening through Saturday morning. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The highest accumulations will be on the hilltops. The storm track for this event is fairly far to our south. So any shift southward in the storm track could keep snow totals lower than current expectations. However, this storm will produce fluffier snow than the previous one. That could make it easier for the snow totals to increase.

How much for Marysville?

lol, I’m sure they’ll get around to updating their grids by the time the first flakes fly!

lol, please note “correctly predicted” Watches would be posted…

CTP did do a better job with the LSV forecast for the event a few days ago. The local TV stations had laughably low forecasts the day before the event. There were lots of surprised people that had no idea we would get 5 to 7 inches of snow in the Harrisburg area.

Someone mentioned earlier that there were not enough snow maps posted… Lol, here we go! For the purposes of my yard & MDT, I’m leaning heavily on this selection of 18z models.

lol, you rang …?!