Blizzard of 93

Here’s the 3k NAM close up for CTP

I don’t think we will be with a developing coastal & ongoing precip in my opinion.

@MillvilleWx Could you please post that “Model ratio” 0z HRRR map for the CTP regional view. I’m curious to see the difference vs. Kuchera.

It also not March or April. Moderate rates near 32 will get the job done except in urban heat islands.

I am not worried about temperatures tomorrow whatsoever. MDT is as of 8 pm at 34 with a dew point of 30. My Marysville yard station is at 34 with a dew of 28.

CTP needs to update their grids & Expected snowfall maps to match the ongoing Warnings. I have heard that they are 100% computer generated, but my goodness for the sake of minimizing confusion, a little human editing would be helpful!

Great exchange here between @MillvilleWx & @DDweatherman

3k NAM good too!

Rookie move! it was not done!

Kuchera NAM

Just about done at 10 am Monday

Over 10 inches in Harrisburg by 7 am Monday & near 18 in Lanco & it’s still not done!

I like the large amount of member clusters near & west of the Op. If the 8 far east members are eliminated, the mean would be even more tucked.

Good post from @Heisy Here was eps, the black dot I made is where the OP was

This is what I’ve been talking about that CTP mentioned in our Warning ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Uncertainty remains for where the heaviest snow bands will occur. Snow totals could be higher depending on these localized bands. Snowfall at times could exceed 1 inch per hour rates.

Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 143 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 ...IMPACTFUL WINTER STORM TO BRING HEAVY SNOWFALL TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... PAZ057>059-064>066-221130- /O.UPG.KCTP.WS.A.0004.260222T1000Z-260223T1800Z/ /O.NEW.KCTP.WS.W.0002.260222T1000Z-260223T1800Z/ Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Adams-York-Lancaster- Including the cities of Hershey, York, Pottsville, Lancaster, Lebanon, Gettysburg, and Harrisburg 143 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow likely. Total snow accumulations between 6 and 12 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph Sunday night and Monday. * WHERE...A portion of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 5 AM Sunday to 1 PM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...The strong winds and weight of snow on tree limbs may down power lines and could cause sporadic power outages. Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Uncertainty remains for where the heaviest snow bands will occur. Snow totals could be higher depending on these localized bands. Snowfall at times could exceed 1 inch per hour rates. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Persons are urged to stay indoors until conditions improve. If you must go outside, dress in layers. Several layers of clothes will keep you warmer than a single heavy coat. Cover exposed skin to reduce your risk of frostbite or hypothermia. Gloves, a scarf, and a hat will keep you from losing your body heat. Persons should consider delaying all travel. Motorists should use extreme caution if travel is absolutely necessary

Great to see that EPS trend!

Great post by @Jake Wx showing the Euro trend since yesterday.

From @MillvilleWx moments ago: ECMWF definitely folded and the 5H progression is great through 00z, then it kicks east-northeast instead of north-northeast like it should on the capture. It's coming into better alignment with other guidance like the GFS and hi-res. It's still a little too dry overall considering the setup, but it's a big shift in the grand scheme and a final fold to how this will materialize. QPF is going to be tough with this one. Our forecast should be on the website now and it's a very sharp gradient from Easton to DC with more east. It's plausible it's too light, but there will be adjustments tonight. Still a general 3-6" for a lot of the region with 5-10" across the M/D from Carroll on east. The norlun trough is a stripe of 6-10" now. That setup is delicate. Updated forecast will be out later.

Great to see the Euro juicing up towards game time. 12z top 6z bottom

I just brought my trash cans inside our fence. The combo of winds & plowed snow could have sent them into the river by Monday, lol!

Indeed, 12z Euro is more tucked & stronger when it matters for the LSV. Decent snow continues into Monday am as well.

The old school Euro + NAM combo for a good forecast could be in play ?

Here is the 15z NBM & 15z NBM Para. I would be thrilled with the range in the Harrisburg area of 7 to 11 if that verified.

Good post from @RU848789 in the NYC thread that includes the latest NBM & info on the snow ratio factors it uses. A few commnts on the NBM. Some think the high amounts are all due to the GFS/NAM being part of the blend and that's partly true, but snow ratios are also part of it as can be seen by just looking at the QPF vs. snowfall maps, as there's nowhere with >2.4" of QPF, but many locations getting >24" of snow even along the coast and inland with maybe 1.5" of QPF. The NBM table above says they use a combo of max temp aloft (Kuchera, I assume) and the Cobb method for generating ratios. So those 10:1 maps are likely underestimates.