Under 48 hours, nine times out of 10, once a trend starts, it usually either builds momentum or levels out. These continual all over the place rug pulls are brutal with this potential event.
I am so ready to be done tracking this system!
2 weeks ago, many of us started watching this weekend period. It went from potential major storm to no storm to late yesterday looking like a potential recovery to an Advisory event to now who the bleep knows!
I do like seeing the healthy looking established precip shield already covering most of Missouri & extending the whole way down to the Texas Gulf coast.
The ingredients are there for us to over perform if we get the rates in southern PA tomorrow evening.
Agreed, if we get moderate rates, we will snow tomorrow evening.
The track is ideal to work with a marginal air mass at this time of year.
There is not a primary low tracking toward northern WV this time.
Great to see the NAMs joining the GFS this morning!
The last big storm a few weeks ago, the NAMs did well at least with thermals, hopefully they continue & lock in later today.
Where do I sign for the 0z GFS ?
This looks like some of the runs that we had several days ago for this Sunday pm chance…
Let’s see if we can reel this in…?
Yes, hopefully models finally converge by tomorrow, but I would sign for the solid Advisory level event that the 18z GFS is showing for southern PA Sunday night.