Blizzard of 93

Hopefully we reel this one in! I was just having fun with my last post to you & Canderson. We all have our posting tendencies & that is what makes this place great. I am still in a little disbelief that the GFS lead the way on this one so far and has not wavered much for a few days. I will be happy with a widespread 6 inches of snow with some lucky spots hitting double digits. Let’s see where the final trends take us this weekend up until game time.

I think it a fantastic sign with the last round of posts this evening… @canderson lowballing Harrisburg amounts & showing an incorrect Harrisburg forecast by CTP… Check! @Itstrainingtime time getting nervous & full of trepidation… Check! I say these things with love as long time posters… to me, it means it’s go time around here for a Winter Storm!

Good uptick on precip on the 18z AI EPS as well.

Don’t you dare bring up Boxing Day on here sir, lol! That storm took a convoluted track that went out & then up, putting the LSV on the edge. That storm was forecast Well out to sea & then crept back to life on Christmas Eve, but the LSV was on the fringe & it failed back here. That was a totally different scenario in my opinion.

Nope, nice try, lol! They just haven’t updated their grids. Winter Storm Watch includes Harrisburg… Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 140 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026 PAZ057>059-064>066-211145- /O.NEW.KCTP.WS.A.0004.260222T1000Z-260223T1800Z/ Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Adams-York-Lancaster- Including the cities of Pottsville, Hershey, Harrisburg, York, Lancaster, Lebanon, and Gettysburg 140 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 4 and 6 inches possible. * WHERE...A portion of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From late Saturday night through Monday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...There is still some uncertainty regarding the track of this storm. Any westward shifts in the track may result in higher snowfall amounts.

I just got a closer look at the 18z EPS and am really happy to see how many tucked ensemble members are showing this run. Total precip still looks good.

If the storm tracks as close to the coast as the GFS depicts, banding will extend WELL back inland beyond what is currently being shown. The LSV is in a good spot.

Wow! Let’s gooooooooo !!!!

Another fascinating day of tracking !

6z EPS is decent, with several west leaning ensemble members that could provide upside snow potential. The mean still brings 4 inches to the LSV this run.

6z GEFS is very impressive for this range. Lots of west leaning ensemble members.

6z Euro still brings most of its snow to us from the inverted trough. It still has Warning level snow for the LSV this run.

6z GFS shows another tucked low just off of OCMD, bringing heavy snow potential to the LSV again this run.

Absolutely too early to call this one. Wide model discrepancy especially between the GFS & Euro.

0z GEFS snow

Thanks to @Newman for showing the improvement on the 0z GEFS over its 18z run.

Way too soon for numbers. It will all come down to banding & rates.

Another beautiful GFS run.

Nice 18z GEFS uptick in the snow map to correspond with the low clusters.

Definitely a step in the right direction

0z NBM & NBM Para both show Warning level snow potential in the LSV.

The 18z EPS snow map had a solid uptick as well at 18z over 12z.

18z EPS had a significant jump west over its 12z run. That’s a few hundred miles in one run. We still need a little more to get into GFS territory, but you rarely see the EPS jump this much so close to game time.

Great to see this unexpected turn of events… usually it’s the other way around! 0z will be interesting to say the least!