The good 15/16 day ensemble runs started around 2/4. So if we don’t have near 10 inches of snow by 2/20, then we can say it busted.
We can then keep score & make declarations at that point.
Here is the round 2 snow on the NAM.
It still does this with taking a 997 low to Detroit. Hopefully future runs it weakens the low like the GFS has been doing & that might enhance front end snow.