Blizzard of 93

Speaking of Lebanon….where the heck has @paweather been lately?

Harrisburg went from 1.4 at 18z to 7.1 at 0z on the ICON.

Good to see the ICON joining the party. Insane rates with this 980 low off of Southern NJ.

Good catch, here are this CTP comments. “there remains some model spread in the exact low track, which could alter exactly where the heaviest precipitation falls. The 18Z EPS for instance now tracks the surface low a bit further south, which could result in the heaviest precipitation falling over extreme Southern PA and shift the axis of heaviest snow from just north of I-80 to just south of it. Marginal surface temperatures and uncertainty where the potential CSI banding occurs argues for riding the current Winter Storm Watch over much of the region. Still can`t rule out significant snow as far south as the I-81 corridor based on the latest southern shift in the models.”

I like seeing the dew points dropping currently into the mid 20s in NW PA at this hour.

3k NAM improved again for Harrisburg which gets 6 on the Kuchera map this run.

Impressive NAM run. Rates would be insane if this verifies.

NAMing underway!

Hopefully the NAM brings the goods again soon.

Lol, Just wait until his fever dream precip start time map.

March south continues on the EPS. MDT increased to 5.7thus run, up from 4.1 last run.

Look at this 6 hr precip panel on the 18z EPS. These rates would get it done. Very strong individual members in a great position.

The Euro just had its best run since early yesterday for the LSV. It joined that south bound train!

Good to see the HRDPS catching on to the south bound train… Still a little snow to go when the run ends for eastern areas.

I think 2016 was also a massive cutoff. MDT had 30, but near Williamsport was close to a shut out if I remember correctly.

Snow on snow, bring it please!

Yes, very nice improvement for the southern tier.

Selinsgrove PA went from 0 at 6z to 10 inches at 18z …

Yes, but Significant shift south from 6z to 18z Icon. 6z top 18z bottom

CTP freshened up the Watch & bumped amounts up again. I liked that they mentioned the 2 to 4 hour heavy snow potential Tuesday am.

Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 249 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2024 PAZ025>028-034-056-057-059-121000- /O.CON.KCTP.WS.A.0003.240213T0400Z-240213T1800Z/ Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon- Including the cities of Altoona, Huntingdon, Mount Union, Lewistown, Mifflintown, Bedford, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, and Lebanon 249 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2024 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches possible. * WHERE...Portions of south-central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Rain will develop Monday evening and turn to snow overnight into early Tuesday morning. Snow will continue through the early afternoon hours. A two-to-four hour period of heavy snow is possible around daybreak Tuesday when snowfall rates of one to two inches per hour could occur.

3k NAM best run yet, but not nearly as generous as the 12k. I wouldn’t complain about the 5 it shows around Harrisburg.

Lol, I’d be happy with half of this!

Serious & thoroughly satisfying NAMing!

These are the 12z ensemble snow maps for day 5 through 15. These do NOT include the current early week storm. This is a great general signal for active pattern with chances in this day 5 through 15 period.