Blizzard of 93

Hopefully 0z tonight or 12z tomorrow brings some convergence between the models. It was good to see the Euro & EPS step towards the GFS today. I think a compromise will still work well for most of us in here.

I think all of us would sign now for this 18z GFS run.

Lock it in please… if only…

Nice shift south on the 12z EPS as well. 12z top 6z bottom

A compromise might put us in the sweet spot…

Canadian also made quite the shift south as well. 0z was near Erie & 12z is in the DelMarVa at the same time stamp. 0z top 12z bottom

Checking in over lunch & good to see the Euro make a large shift south from 0z to 12z. The “blue” made about a 75 mile shift south this run. 0z top 12z bottom

The 6z GEFS through day 16 continues the juicing up. The 6 inch line gets to northern Dauphin county & the 2 inch line gets way down to northern North Carolina. Quite the signal…

SOI continues to tank yet again with a -32 for the daily contribution.

The EPS & GEFS are both showing their 15 day snow maps with increasing amounts for PA & getting the 2 inch snow line down to near Richmond, VA. I like seeing the ensembles juicing up as a signal of what the next 2 weeks are capable of producing.

0z EPS did move the snow line further south for early next week.

Here’s the snow map for the PD storm 3 day period so you don’t need to do @mitchnick ‘s math.

Where do I sign for PDIII on this 6z GFS run. You weren’t joking around with this long duration storm that it shows. This pattern is capable of producing events like this. Hopefully it holds & gets some company as the other Ops get in range.

Let’s hope the GFS gets some company at 12z.

2 runs in a row the GFS has put us back in the game for early next week.

We are on the same page. I was just looking at the 18z EPS & the snow map did indeed increase a bit. The mean low did tick south east a bit & was slightly stronger at 18z. 18z top 12z bottom

I agree with them that this is not over. “Significant changes in the forecast are possible (if not likely) in the coming days and interests should check back on the forecast frequently.”

Here are CTP’s thoughts for early next week. Cooler temperatures will slowly seep back into the area Sunday into early next week in the wake of the aforementioned cold front. At the same time, an upper- level trough traversing the central United States should aid in the development of sfc low pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley. Long range models track this low towards the Mid-Atlantic region in the Monday/Monday night timeframe. There is still considerable uncertainty in terms of the amount of cold air in place ahead of the system as well as the track of the surface low. These two ingredients will be critically important for what, if any, impacts there are from wintry precipitation. A few members of the GEFS and ECENS depict potential for significant snowfall across portions of Central PA but many others bring little to no snow to the region. Our current forecast depicts a consensus forecast with snow across the northern tier and Laurel Highlands with rain in southern PA. This matches well with the WPC Winter Storm Outlook that paints a 10-30% chance of plowable snowfall in the Laurels and northern mountains. Significant changes in the forecast are possible (if not likely) in the coming days and interests should check back on the forecast frequently.

It’s all good & I appreciate your posts & contributions on here. Truthfully, no one knows exactly how this will play out over the last 6 weeks of realistic snow season. I am looking forward to tracking the good & bad on here over the next several weeks. Hopefully we get a few snow wins before we start counting mows in April.

Again, see you at 0z…. Seriously, relax, it’s 1 freaking long range GFS run. It just had a fantasy snowstorm the previous 3 runs, but as soon as that goes away, you believe that one?! I don’t get it…

18z GFS was not too far off from the good run at 6z earlier today. I think we are still in the game with 5 days to go.

Lol, 1 bad run & you’re out….?!? See you at 0z…!

6z GEFS is on board for early next week.

If we can score even a little bit with early next week, while tracking something like what the GFS has for PD weekend…. Oh my….

21 in Marysville