Blizzard of 93
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Everything posted by Blizzard of 93
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I see what you mean, but I think we will be good with the strong blocking up top, the STJ under cutting, & the 50/50 showing nicely at range. It’s just a matter of time until we get hit with a Winter Storm in my opinion & the opinion of lots of posters & pros.
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I am so pumped for the upcoming pattern change. It’s great to see @psuhoffman so confident as well.
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The SOI has been crashing for the last week, especially the last few days. This should help as we approach the better pattern towards mid month.
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- weenie fest or weenie roast?
- weenies got roasted
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He’s going to have a heck of a busted forecast this year…. Lol, I hope they have a nice place for Phil to live because the wild groundhogs will be likely buried in snow later this month…
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All 3 global ensembles continue to advertise the pattern change beginning on the 12th/13th & continuing to improve through the end of their 15 or 16 day runs. Here are the 5 day ensemble means.
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All 3 global ensembles continue to advertise the pattern change beginning on the 12th/13th & continuing to improve through the end of their 15 or 16 day runs. Here are the 5 day ensemble means.
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- weenie fest or weenie roast?
- weenies got roasted
- (and 2 more)
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Here is the second chance on the 6z GFS a couple of days later on the 15th. Happy Friday!
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The 6z GFS has 2 chances for us to score snow during the pattern transition week. Here is the first chance this run on the 13th.
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Yes indeed & still 2 months to score.
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The ensembles are locking in on this pattern change being real & hopefully they deliver snowy ground truth from mid month onward.
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Lol, This is obviously a Miller B on the Op. You had responded to my post on the ensembles look at hour 294 with your comment on the Op run, hence the confusion.
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The 6z GEFS is only out to hour 348 on WB right now….but it has clearly continued to develop into a great look a few days after the 294 hour maps posted above.
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Here is the end of the EPS at hour 360 & the Canadian ensemble at hour 384….the good looks have developed into very good looks…
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The main point of my post is that ALL 3 ensembles show the pattern changing UNDER 300 hours- no more extrapolating 384 maps & extended ensemble products. This is the BEGINNING of the the pattern change at hour 294……….
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The better looks are now beginning at under 300 hours by the 13th on all 3 global ensembles.
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- weenie fest or weenie roast?
- weenies got roasted
- (and 2 more)
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The better looks are now beginning at under 300 hours by the 13th on all 3 global ensembles.
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6z GFS says Happy Valentine’s Day to CTP.
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We are going to more than make up for this lost time. Many Winters that we remember as good seasons had long breaks in the action in peak climo.
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Great post! It has been good to see the SOI finally tank this week. The MJO is heading towards the favorable phases. Everything is lining up for a potential great run from mid February to at least early March. I agree, patience will be needed, but it’s good to see no can kicking on the ensembles for the last few days. I also like the agreement between all 3 global ensembles on the great looking pattern once we get to around the 13th & beyond.
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The 0z global ensembles all continue the good pattern change by the 13th/14th.
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I’m resting up for what lies ahead… The ensembles today are loading up with potential for mid February.
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Lol, I’m not posting the snow map, but I’ll post the general map the GFS shows. This GFS run certainly made my lunch break much better. The upcoming pattern should produce storms & rumors of storms from around the 13th & beyond.
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All 3 ensembles now have the pattern change well underway by February 14th.
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This storm is literally throwing the models into loops.
