Blizzard of 93

Good thing the GEFS is still on track with the better look on day 10 & 12.

It really went off the rails this run. Hopefully it gets a clue in the coming days.

The SOI continues its tanking, which it has been doing for the last several days. Here’s the latest.

Hopefully the other guidance continues to push the 13th chance south. Just a day or 2 ago it was showing as a cutter on the long range GFS & ensembles.

Lol, I do not know that particular snowman…!

So, you’re saying it’s right where we want it at this range according to my handbook.

I think my back yard low for the year so far is 8. Maybe I’ll get the chance to beat that once snow cover returns this month.

How is Dubois looking?

@mitchnick should be happy to see that the 0z ensembles are all looking good at the end of their 15/16 day runs. The EPS backed off on the week ridging “yellow”. Now the closest yellow is in western Iowa at the end of the EPS. All 3 continue to show strong Greenland blocking with the STJ undercutting.

The Op runs that I posted are starting to show that Winter is still here & coming back to hopefully produce Winter Storm chances again by mid month.

MDT currently sitting at 27 degrees.

The 6z GFS has a storm getting to the coast on the 16th with a CTP snow chance.

The 0z Euro this run has a Winter Storm chance on the 13th with a snowstorm for northern PA & a mix changing to snow for southern PA as the low transfers to the coast.

@MAG5035 what are your thoughts on the upcoming pattern change potential?

The 12z EPS teleconnections are all screaming that the advertised pattern is on track as we get towards day 10. Every index is forecast to go right where we want them.

I’m not worried about day 15 or 16 caving with the good look that it is showing as I described above. Snow maps will respond once a specific threat is identified.

Here is the 18z GEFS 96 hour snow for day 11 to 15. Not bad at all for this range over a four day period.

We can score big snow until around March 20th or so even in the LSV. It just happened in 2018. I’ve been doing this for a few decades as well. This is the kind of pattern look that we dream of & we can go several years without this kind of pattern opportunity. This upcoming period has the chance to be our best sustained good Winter storm window since at least March of 2018.

Long way to go, heck the Euro Op & Canadian Op are barely in 10 day range yet for the beginning of the pattern change on the 13th. The blocking that is developing will also throw models into fits as well.

As a few posters in the Mid Atlantic thread have said recently, we need to be patient. This upcoming pattern should produce, but some people probably will lose patience & sadly not make it…

Furthermore, the ever so slight ridging in the Midwest at hour 384 on the 18z GEFS looks to be in response to the massive strong Greenland block that is backing to west. The STJ continues to push further to the east over the Gulf states. You also still have troughing in the 50/50 space at hour 384. This look, if it would hold, would still have plenty of good going for it. Also, temps at 384 are still cold in the east. Besides this, I think we will have a chance to score before day 16, & as I posted a little earlier, the good pattern should provide chances into early March.

I’m not worried about day 16 in the 18z GEFS when the day 13 map looks like this…

Here are the corresponding pattern looks on the Euro Weeklies for weeks 3, 4, & 5.

Here are the corresponding pattern looks on the Euro Weeklies for weeks 3, 4, & 5.

Good to see the precip juicing up on the Euro Weeklies for when the good pattern sets in for weeks 3, 4 & 5.