Blizzard of 93

Monster GFS run!

He is just picking analogs of the top 3 historical storms that look like this current storm’s potential. When you blend those 3 analog storm totals, you get 10 to 15 at Harrisburg per his post this evening. One of his 3 analogs was PD2 back in February 2003. This storm as I mentioned a couple of days ago also reminds me a lot of that storm with the Arctic press meeting up with a strong moisture plume halfway across the country that delivered 20 inches to Harrisburg.

18z Ai EPS also had its best run of the day:

It’s all good to see the positive trends.

Here is latest NBM National Blend

That’s the Ukie ensemble, but I love it!

Massive hit !

Low of 7 in Marysville.

6z GFS & Euro AI at 6z also bumped north.

Great trends continue at 6z for this weekend. 6z GEFS bumped north with the good snow by at least 50 miles over 0z.

0z Euro is long duration beauty!

0z Euro is long duration beauty.

0z Ukie is apparently very good as well!

0z Canadian

0z Canadian!

Great trends at 0z from the Canadian & GFS!

I like where we sit now in southern PA for Sunday. We tend to do well when a slight north trend is needed to get into the good stuff with this type of set up. This set up reminds me of PD2 back in 2003 with the Arctic High slowly pressing in while precip stretched from southern PA back to Oklahoma and crawled east to the northeast. PD2 trended north during the last 48 hours before the event. Forecasts for the LSV as early as the day before the event had us getting 6 to 10, but as the event got underway, it kept bumping up. We ended up with many spots in the LSV getting 2 feet. Ratios for this event should be 15 or 20 to 1, so a foot of snow would be possible even if we only get .6 of precip and miss out on the precip jackpot. I think the odds of at least a minimal Warning event for the southern third of PA are high. With a gradual slight northward trend, the chance of a double digit event is certainly still in play.

Good to see the AI models still looking great for this weekend’s chance. Hopefully the Op runs trend back in that direction. Lots on the table & it will be fascinating to watch it unfold this week.

15 for the low in Marysville

It’s not going to happen here because skies are starting to clear despite the improved radar.

Radar has filled back in to the LSV within the last hour. Nothing is happening here yet, but I wonder if anyone can pick up another dusting in the next hour or so?

2021 we had a memorable storm drop around 12 inches at MDT I believe from 1/31 into 2/1.

I was looking at the radar the last few hours wondering if that precip would clip parts of the LSV today. Radar now has precip back to I-81 deep into VA, so this might have the chance to get Harrisburg & York into another steady period of light snow.

I should add the bonus of that it’s actively still snowing lightly.

Light snow continues in Marysville. Beautiful wintry morning! One of my favorite things in Winter when the opportunity arises is shoveling snow while tracking the next chance. This is happening in my next hour today.