More from the CTP discussion:
There could be 1-2 more-consistent, heavier bands of snow, though. One should/likely be a W-E band parallel to the storm track but 100 or so miles north of it, perhaps running somewhere just S of UNV but N of the Turnpike. Much of the forcing is gone by 21Z with another deformation zone and associated snow
band possible for the SE as the sfc low starts to deepen as it moves out to sea. A band like this (later in the storm) would likely pivot more NE-SW and affect a wider land area than a W-E
band would.
The latest guidance infuses more confidence in these slightly higher numbers. Still a bit of spread in storm total QPF from the ensembles, but a 0.25 mean across the SE and 15-18:1 SLR for the afternoon should get them above 3", esp on the hill tops. SLRs remain higher than 15:1 across the region with 20:1 values
likely in the NW.