Blizzard of 93

Light to moderate snow for about 15 minutes in Marysville has dissipated for now. The line behind it could produce more.

Both 12z NAMS are a go for a Tuesday advisory event.

Please have them get a measurement later if MDT gets a squall… I’m looking forward to 3 chances to see snow this week. Round 1 with the squall chance is underway with light puffy flakes now.

6z Euro still decent for Tuesday

6z Euro

CTP has a strongly worded statement on today’s snow squalls… Special Weather Statement Special Weather Statement National Weather Service State College PA 636 AM EST Sun Jan 14 2024 PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046- 049>053-056>059-063>066-141515- Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield- Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin- Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming- Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour- Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon- Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- 636 AM EST Sun Jan 14 2024 ...DANGEROUS SNOW SQUALLS TO IMPACT THE REGION THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS... One or more bands of snow squalls will be moving east at 50 to 55 mph across Central Pennsylvania and the Susquehanna Valley, along the leading edge of an arctic airmass. Near whiteout conditions and a quick one half inch of snow in just 10 to 15 minutes will lead to dangerous travel conditions as a result of the very poor visibility and snow or ice covered roads. Winds will gust up to 50 mph in the squalls. If possible, delay any travel until the mid to late afternoon hours. If you are traveling, your recognition of these squalls and the actions you take to get off the road or help to gradually slow traffic could prevent a high speed, multi-vehicle accident and save your life and the lives of others. If you see terrain features and objects off in the distance being obscured by heavy snow within the dangerous snow squalls, take quick action to pull off the road to a safe location, such as a parking lot or driveway to wait out the squall. If you are on an interstate, it`s best to get off the road at the nearest exit as soon as you notice the squall to ensure the safety of you and your passengers. If there isn`t an opportunity to safely exit the Interstate, slow down gradually, well before entering the squall and turn on your flashing hazard lights.

6z GFS is still a go for Friday the 19th.

6z RGEM remains very good for Tuesday & actually gets low end Warning snow amounts of 5 inches to Dauphin, Lebanon (yes…’Myra!), & Lancaster.

Best Euro run in days for Tuesday

0z GFS delivered for the 19th as well & just missed something more… Snow map only for the 19th…

GFS & Canadian on board for our Tuesday Advisory Eve event chance

0z RGEM is juiced.

Let’s go 2 for 2 !!!

Best Euro run since a few days ago when it was actually the first model to show this storm before it lost it for days. Maybe this will continue juicing up a bit. If not, I’ll gladly take 1-3 or 2-4 on Tuesday.

CTP says welcome back Winter… SYNOPSIS... Winter is poised to make a big comeback through mid January as arctic air invades the area over the next several days. Snow showers and blustery winds will continue through tonight with additional light snow accumulation over the Allegheny Mountains. Snow squalls are possible Sunday morning as arctic air blasts into central PA. A widespread light snow accumulation is possible late Monday night into Tuesday as a storm tracks off the East Coast. Subzero wind chills are forecast over the Alleghenies Sunday night into early Monday morning and again Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. Below normal temperatures are forecast into next weekend. Welcome back winter.

Indeed, still nothing too exciting, but best GFS run since early yesterday for Tuesday.

18z ICON is decent for Tuesday

The 18z RGEM would be a decent Advisory event for many of us on Tuesday.

Don’t worry, spin the wheel of NAM, lol! It’s 12z run had the bullseye in northern PA… Where will it land at 0z ? Here is that 12z NAM for reference

18z NAM was good for our southern tier & MD.

12z Euro gives Advisory level snow to parts of the LSV on Tuesday. Lol, that heavier little band looks like it’s giving the finger to Maytown & Palmyra!

12z UKIE for Tuesday still keeps us in the game for an Advisory level event.

12z Ukie

CTP discussion for tomorrow’s squalls… .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/... A progged west-southwest flow should keep lake effect snow north of the border through Sunday. However, the passage of a secondary cold front will likely be accompanied by a round of snow showers/squalls Sunday morning. High res models generate up to 150-200 J/KG Sunday morning (esp over and to the east of the Susq Valley during the midday hours), supporting the convective snows. Low level convergence along the front, combined with steep lower tropospheric lapse rates and some cape, argues for the potential of a linear snow squall band traversing the northern counties between 10Z-14Z Sunday across the Western Mtns, and 14-18Z for the Central and Eastern Zones. Will continue to strongly message the potential for these dangerous squalls on Social Media outlets and to our Public Partners. Lingering, light upslope snow could last into Sunday PM over the Alleghenies. However, the focus for much of the region will become gusty winds and an arrival of the coldest air mass of this winter, with wind chills falling below zero by evening over the Allegheny Plateau.