Blizzard of 93

What about the start time zig-zag map…when will that be posted?

Here’s another example of a north trend in December of 2020. For several days the southern half of CTP into northern MD was modeled consistently to be in the bullseye of 12 to 18. Then, a day or two before the storm, the creep north began. Some short term models started to introduce sleet to southern PA & pushed the snow jackpot out of MD/southern PA into central & NE PA. MDT ended up still getting 10 or 11 inches, but sleet mixed in for a few hours. MDT ended up on the southern end of double digit snow. I-80 to I-90 ended up getting amounts of 18-24, when they were supposed to be on the northern edge of the good amounts. My point is, there’s still some time for small changes in the grand scheme of things.

Remember the final event last February when MD to the southern tier of PA was supposed to get 3 to 6. North of Harrisburg was supposed to get only a couple of inches. At the last minute the storm jogged north a bit & jackpoted just north of Harrisburg out to Allentown & the southern Poconos. I ended up with 7 & Allentown got more. Small change, but drastically changed the ground truth.

I forgot the storm already happened…lol

Good news is that the 12z Euro appears to be on board for an event next weekend.

12z Euro still won’t budge…

Not wishing… NAMs & some other short range guidance are on board for LSV Warning snow. Also there are dozens of times over the years… including last year, when storms track a little further north at game time. We are not trying to “will” it up here from southern VA… It won’t take much for a slight bump north. I don’t think the LSV gets the bullseye, but I could see solid low end Warning numbers with a small shift.

For next weekend, the 12z GFS has a major coastal this run. Snow map is drool worthy for next weekend…

Good…good, I was worried when just Yesterday you said 5 to 8… We need you down playing more for us to score. This has a good track record over the years on here…

Plenty of time to get a small bump north to get the LSV into the better goods like the NAM is showing. The actual storm is just going to emerge from the Rockies later today. We can still get an incremental bump north.

GFS run is acceptable to me for the LSV.

3k NAM 12z still with Warning LSV snow.

I would sign for .5 to .7 of precip in the LSV with good ratios.

Improvement for Harrisburg & Lancaster at 12z run vs. 6z.

12z NAM hour 54

12z NAMing appears to be underway in southern PA at hour 48…

12z National Blend of models ticked slightly better for the LSV.

Why not a third view of the 12z HRRR ? I like seeing that low in eastern Kentucky.

The National Blend of Models also gets Warning snow to Harrisburg.

Speaking of the SREF. The latest SREF mean would be acceptable for the southern third.

The 3k NAM depiction of the precip shield is what you typically see in the southern half of PA when a low is in Eastern Tennessee & western NC.

The 3k NAM looks very good with for the southern half of PA. The run ends at 60 hours, with more snow to go. Hopefully more short range guidance trends this direction as we approach game time.