Blizzard of 93

Low of 8 in Marysville this morning. Coldest morning of the season here. Currently 11.

Welcome back neighbor!

Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 425 AM EST Thu Jan 18 2024 PAZ004-005-010>012-017>019-025>028-034>036-045-049-050-056>059- 063>066-182300- /O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0008.240119T0600Z-240120T0600Z/ Warren-McKean-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield- Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata- Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Southern Clinton-Union-Snyder-Perry- Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- Including the cities of Warren, Bradford, St. Marys, Ridgway, Emporium, Renovo, DuBois, Clearfield, Philipsburg, State College, Altoona, Huntingdon, Mount Union, Lewistown, Mifflintown, Bedford, McConnellsburg, Chambersburg, Lock Haven, Lewisburg, Selinsgrove, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Pottsville, Lebanon, Carlisle, Gettysburg, York, and Lancaster 425 AM EST Thu Jan 18 2024 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total accumulations of 2 to 4 inches. * WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 1 AM Friday to 1 AM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

6z HRRR looks good as well with 3 to 4 for most of us. Very nice low placement off of OCMD.

6z NAMs bring 3 to 4 to the LSV

0z Euro improved & gets over 4 inches to all of the LSV this run.

I blame jet traffic

Seriously, what is up at MDT. Even the surface of hell at Cap City Airport is at 16 currently!

11 in Marysville currently

Yes indeed! It would also make Tom Russell at CBS-21 happy as well with his 3 to 5 call.

Over performing!

Agreed, definitely more interaction with the coastal this NAM run. If timing improves, there would be some upside even further back in CTP.

NAMing is underway….! Maps coming in a few minutes

18z Euro had its best run since a couple of days ago.

Very nice! I also read his pattern overview that he put out last week & it was a very detailed, yet easy to understand outlook. I will look forward to reading his work moving forward.

I agree, most of the time snow maps are slightly over inflated in general across Pivotal, WB, etc. The various models “spin the wheel” for the jackpot areas run to run. I like them for a general idea of a range for expectations. I’ve learned to throw out the higher end outliers, but the low end outlier is often not the best. Just as most things in life in general, the real answer usually ends up in the middle.

Lol, here’s a question… Has anyone thought maybe the Pivotal maps are wrong? Why would commercial clients & hobbyists pay good money for access to maps if they weren’t accurate model output?

I’m counting the seconds until @Bubbler86 & @mitchnick say they are fringed by this… The rest of us would celebrate if this was the ground truth on Friday!

I really liked that 18z HRRR run. Still snowing at the end of its 48 hour run.

Most 18z model runs support 2 to 4 for the vast majority of us in CTP.

Lol… yes, I was waiting for this! Quick, someone post the famous “It’s Happening” GIF! History shows that we do quite well with snow after you make posts like this. Heck, I think you cancelled the yesterday event on Sunday afternoon!

I love it, but I think 2 to 4 is a better call for most of us. Maybe someone gets lucky in their backyard with 5, but their ruler would likely be slanted…

Great post…agreed… High upside of double digits is off the table, but a shut out is also off the table. Another solid Advisory event is on the way.

It’s also 10-1 …. Also, look around the different sub forums on here…. Many good long time respected posters use WB…including PSU, Cape etc… Let’s move on…. Bottom line, it’s going to snow again…