Blizzard of 93

The January 8th/9th period is looking even more interesting. Great potential showing on the 12z Canadian & 18z GFS.

The 18z Euro still has the New Year’s Day clipper that gives many of us 1 to 2 inches of potential snow.

I’m ready for something like this 12z Euro run for 1/9 to verify.

It’s a good look & the key is that it is sustainable.

6z GFS has this moisture laden storm on the 6th this run. The potential period is going to be interesting to track.

Here is the 0z EPS look for the day 10 to 15 period.

Yes indeed, here is the 0z EPS look for the day 10 to 15 period.

The first half of January looks to bring this potential…

Next up for a light snow chance is another Clipper potential around New Year’s Day.

The upcoming advertised pattern during the first half of January says “buckle up”!

ABC-27 just showed on their news some information in regard to our local Winter weather. They had a graphic that said 8 of the last 10 Winters had below normal snowfall. I’m assuming they are using MDT stats. CTP is showing that only 6 of the last 10 Winter seasons had below normal snow at MDT. Maybe they are only using Dec to Feb which could skew it by not including November & March/April snow? Below are the official seasonal numbers from CTP’s website for MDT seasonal snow for the last 10 seasons.

My temp is still 32. Icy Winter wonderland out there is showing beautiful scenery.

Models continue to look active with chances during the first 10 days of January.

Sleet covered roads at least make it look more wintry. Looks to be about half an inch of sleet out there on top of a glaze of freezing rain. Freezing drizzle later should make this a real treat to remove in the morning from the sidewalk.

Puking sleet right in Marysville now after a period a freezing rain. Absolute skating rink out there now. Temp 27 Dew point 24

Heavier band looks to be approaching the western LSV in Adams, Cumberland & Perry on the march due east.

Sleet & Freezing rain mix to start in Marysville transitioned to moderate sleet. The cars are already encrusted in Ice & getting sleet covered. Temp 28 Dew point 20

MDT dew point is currently 9. Lots of cold air in place, so say it with me… “air temp will drop when precipitation begins”. Lol!

Look at your dew point…………..

MDT is above normal for the season to date at 5.0”

The Op runs are showing a lot of activity in the first 10 days of January with storms actually approaching from the south & west instead of the north. We will likely have the chance to win & lose, but I think it will be better than tracking weak Clippers that the previous few weeks have brought us.

Latest HRRR brings over 1 inch of sleet to Harrisburg & Lancaster with a tenth or 2 of freezing rain on top.

Additionally, most of us are slightly above normal snow for the season to date as well.

I didn’t realize that was good old Steve D. I would love for him to be right for back here in our area, but I don’t see any of us getting near 4 or 6 inches. Maybe we get 1 or 2 of slop.

Well, I remember last year when for 2 or 3 weeks in late January into mid February, all 3 global ensemble models had our region consistently near 10 inches or more of snow. Ground truth turned out to be a light event or two. Point is, I no longer get excited about the 15 day ensemble totals until there is a specific threat to track. They should mainly be used for pattern recognition & identifying windows of opportunity in my opinion.