Blizzard of 93

Agreed, hopefully we see the Euro come around by tonight, but it’s encouraging to see all other guidance have a good storm at this range. Quick general recap of 0z/6z runs: Euro - 0z Whiff ICON - moderate snow hit at 6z Canadian - 0z inside runner with mixing GFS - Warning level snow at 6z/0z Ukie- 0z Warning snow- high end LSV Based on the above, the GFS is showing the middle ground at this time.

Further out in time on the 19th, the 0z Euro & Canadian have yet another Winter storm chance to track. This is the period that many good posters & pro Mets have been salivating over for some time as the peak of the pattern potential before we relax/reload.

Indeed, but the better looks have shown this general setup a day or 2 out. These extrapolating eyes liked where it was heading.

Thanks, good to see the “finger” of precip aimed right at us.

Good to see that at least 18 of the 30 ensemble members bring at least advisory level snow to many of us, with several of those 18 showing warning level upside.

Good news… Hey, do you have that top secret 6z GGEM to post? The RGEM at the end of its run seemed to be on the right track.

6z GEFS had perhaps it’s best run yet for Tuesday.

Good to see the 6z ICON back on board. It did fairly well with our storm last weekend from at least a few days, it was steady, so hopefully it says on board today.

6z GFS is not backing down.

Too far out now to determine final track & ratios, but if the colder scenarios happen, ratios could be more than 10-1.

0z Canadian ensemble improved as well over its 12z run, especially for the LSV. There are timing differences, but the snow map tells the story in this case.

Yes, temps are in the 20s on the GEFS dropping into the teens.

Great UKIE low position for Susquehanna Valley snow.

0z UKIE is a perfect track crusher.

Differences remain in timing & low track with the GFS & Canadian at 0z. The Canadian is too tucked & the GFS is an offshore track.

0z Blend of models is holding steady. Does anyone know from which models that it pulls its data?

Agreed & 18z Euro Control was a good baby step in the right direction over 12z.

Also 18z GEFS had a nice jump in 24 hr precip over the 12z run. There is a little more precip outside of these 24 hrs., but this gives the general idea of a good bump up for us.

Good to see the 18z GEFS jump up.

Here is the @MillvilleWx post for all to read… “In all seriousness, it was a pretty solid run for a SECS, bordering MECS with the current environment. Would love to see the ECMWF get on board. By this weekend, we’ll have a good idea of the potential. This is one of the best ways to score around these parts. You’ll get some solid baroclinicity in this type of evolution. Great banding on the NW side as play within the prime isotherms of -4C, and the holy grail of -12C to -18C within the 850-600mb region. GFS is a beaut. Still more worried about a no-storm or something suppressed given the flow up top. We take and proceed with caution.”

Great track on the 18z GFS.

Beautiful 18z GFS run. I needed a good Happy Hour. I couldn’t eat or drink anything before my Wisdom Teeth removal at 11 & have only had water since then… This GFS run is keeping me going…Lol

@CAPE just Posted this 18z Blend in the Mid Atlantic thread