Blizzard of 93

Indeed, still 6 days to go. I like that the cutter idea is fading, but now we need to avoid suppression. Over the years, lows that track to Kentucky & fade or jump to the VA Capes, usually bring the main swath of precip into at least the southern half of PA.

The Canadian still shears out at the last minute, but I like the look it had with the low in Southwest Kentucky and the associated precip position. Ease that confluence just a bit & it would work well for southern PA.

The Canadian is rolling & so far looks more amped like the ICON & Euro.

Good start to 12z!

Can you please post his thoughts when you get the chance? I tried to find it on their twitter page & website, but didn’t see anything today about the next week possibilities.

It was good to see the overnight model runs bring back the end of next week chance of a coastal possibly on the 10th & 11th. All options are on the table, hopefully we cash in at least once. Lots of tracking fun & games ahead.

That’s music to my ears! Good to hear that he is possibly on board.

It’s a delicate balance with this storm, with the strength of the low, the latitude it reaches & where it redevelops. The good thing is that we will have ample cold in place, so I’m confident if we get a solid precip shield, we will stay mostly snow. I don’t want to see it be weak & sheared out. I like where we sit in the southern third of PA for Monday.

Good morning, see what I did there… I put the “100” on your 50% post, Lol. Nothing is ever truly 100, but as you said, cautious optimism is increasing for our snow chances next week.

I watched his video as well & just looked up this 1964 storm that he referenced… I would settle for a fraction of this.

0z ICON just made a significant move towards the Euro for the Monday Winter storm chance.

Significant move towards the Euro.

The yearly surplus at MDT is in trouble unless they get about 1.5” of rain by the time the ball drops at midnight on Tuesday night.

The snow maps for both runs are beyond drool worthy. We need to get the track for the first storm chance on the 6th narrowed down, which will then help to determine if we will have a second opportunity later next week. Either way, it’s going to be entertaining to see how these play out. We could win on both, get one or the other or strike out, all options are still on the table.

Beautiful runs indeed. My handbook says to take the 0z Euro for the 6th & the 6z GFS for the 10th. Lol, let’s try to get those two runs anywhere close to verifying & then call it a Winter.

The 18z GFS would be a nice way to start the potential Winter pattern next Monday the 6th. This solution would be a compromise from the previous cutting tracks & the southern slider option.

Enjoy the short break on home heating costs… the deep freeze returns in a few days.

There’s lot of cold air in place by that potential event, so this run has a Warning level amount of snow for most of us, followed by mix them dry slot. Long way to go, but that wasn’t a bad run.

The happy hour GFS is getting into the good stuff this run…

There is a lot to be determined as the pattern gets established. A system on the 5th or 6th is becoming more likely, with the track details still several days away. Severe cold is often over modeled at range. Yes, I think we get cold, but how far south the cold reaches & the severity is still to be determined. Lots of possibilities & all outcomes are still on the table.

I’m focusing now on the first potential chance with this pattern on the 5th/6th.

Most recent years, getting the cold in place has been our problem. Let’s get the cold established & then take our chances with whatever systems come our way.

I would be fine with stacking a couple of moderate events & then preserve the snowpack with a deep freeze.

Thanks for the kind post. We go back a long way on here. I always appreciate you sharing your knowledge, observations, personal experiences, sense of humor & voice of sound reason through the years. Sometimes I get caught up in the hype in the Winter. Some of my responses last night & this morning were tongue in cheek replies to some what I deemed as Deb posts in the light of what could be upcoming over the next few weeks. There are certainly no absolutes in the weather as we have all learned through the years on here & beyond. Despite the scars of being let down in some Winter seasons, the joy of the hunt & occasional payoff when a Winter Storm delivers the goods always brings me back for more each year. As @Mount Joy Snowman said this morning, there is room for all types of posters on here. This morning, my feathers were ruffled (pre-coffee lol) & I took out my frustration the wrong way. I apologize to everyone, especially @WmsptWx for me being out of line. We have a good group on here & I look forward to what hopefully will be a busy & entertaining time tracking in January.

Good morning. With the above normal temperatures the next few days, do you think MDT will be able to hold on to a below normal month? I think they were -3.5 through yesterday. I’m looking forward to your calculations good sir.