Blizzard of 93

Best ICON run since 0z last night. Like you said, Ratios could help us this event.

CTP seems confident for 5 days out…this is for Harrisburg Monday Night A chance of snow after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Tuesday A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 29. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Lol, still a couple days to go until the track is set. Yesterday, the Euro had good snow for us & the other models did not. Today, the Euro is a whiff but the GFS & Canadian have the good snow. Let’s see where 0z takes us…

Marysville jack pot!

They were different types of systems, but many light to moderate snows week after week & cold.

I just got out of my procedure…. I need GFS & Canadian snow maps please !!!!!

That was 2014 or 2015 I think

Like the 384 6z GFS Kuchera total snow map…lol!

I am getting my wisdom teeth pulled later this morning. I apologize in advance if I post anything incoherent over the next couple of days!

If anyone needs a good snow map fix this morning, check out the snow total on the 6z GFS through the end of the 16 days, Amounts aside, it just screams of potential regardless of the final exact total that this period will hold for us. For extra fun, check out the Kuchera total…

Next week could be a great week if it all plays out favorably for us, but the potential is there to get hit twice in a 4 day period.

Also, the 19th potential got a lot more interesting on the Canadian & Euro Op.

Harrisburg city, Marysville & Carlisle in the LSV all had Warning level snow on Saturday of around 5 inches before the flip to rain. Only York & Lancaster fell short of Warning level snow, but they had Advisory level amounts in most locations in those counties before the flip last Saturday. This coming storm is a different animal. Much more cold air is in the pattern now. I think we all win with this one.

This will be the one that gets it done. Juice & amp it up…the cold will hold this time.

6z GFS snow map for Tuesday.

I’ll take the 6z GFS with cold air in place. It crushed the Susquehanna Valley this run. This is the furthest west solution we’ve seen yet for this potential event. Most of the ensembles & other Ops are furthest east, but this track is certainly another possibility that gets it done for us. Long duration storm this run for CTP has depicted this 6z GFS run.

0z GEPS is on board too with the Tuesday event. I only have 24 hr. panels available, so precip/snow amounts would be a little more due to the ensemble member low track timing differences. I am posting the juiciest 24 period this GEPS run.

0z EPS was still decent for next Tuesday, but it took a step back from 12z yesterday. Still many would sign for a few inches of cold powder snow. Still a few days until we begin to lock into the final track.

Yes, they are ramping up their discussion for the early next week chance… LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... *Coldest air of the winter (thus far) poised to invade Sunday and persist through the middle of next week.* Lingering lake-effect snow showers across northern and western PA will gradually dissipate on Sunday, as a weak area of high pressure builds in. Sunday will be a chilly day, however, with high temperatures running 5 to 15 degrees below average for mid January. Long-range models seem to be converging on producing a synoptic snowfall across central PA Monday into early Tuesday, with low pressure developing off the southeast coast of the United States and tracking north-northeastward. The 00z/Jan 10 ECMWF is more aggressive with the deepening of this low and tracks it closer to the coast than the 12z/Jan 10 GFS. The extended range models are in good agreement that it will remain cold through the middle of next week, with a reinforcing shot of cold air arriving on Tuesday behind the departing low.

Good info, but My point is that I’m happy the EPS didn’t move it to Bermuda! We are in the game. Long way to go & lots of good & bad runs to go. Heck, we are still a couple of days away from extrapolating the 84 hr NAM & RGEM!

The bulk of the storm is still on the way when the run ends at 144 hours. I’ll gladly take my chances with this look at this range.

Same general signal. We are in the game. That’s all I’m looking for at this range.

The 18z EPS has a great signal for the Tuesday chance.

This Euro run for Tuesday is making my lunch break very nice… Even the Lancaster crew would approve this run!