Confidence is increasing that at least a solid Advisory or low end Warning level event could be on the way for us in the LSV.
I think my “first call” for the LSV would be 3 to 6 inches with lollipops of 8.
If the recent trends of the models continue to improve through tomorrow, I could see bumping up if needed.
6z GFS & 6z Euro look fairly similar.
Solid Advisory for the LSV at this time & borderline Warning for the southern tier.
Let’s see where 12z takes us.
Still a few days to go until this is decided. I like seeing the latest Euro, but let’s see what the Euro & other models do at 0z.
I think the southern third of PA to northern MD will be in a good spot for this storm.
12z Euro with a similar idea as the Canadian.
Advisory snow this run to the LSV & Warning snow just over the MD line.
Only minor adjustment needed to get southern PA into the better goods.
Agreed, 50 or so miles. will likely have a large difference in snow amounts depending on where the cutoff sets up. Lots of runs to go until that is determined.
Heck, we are a couple of days away from solid NAM & short range model forecasts.
Long way to go. That was a crazy swing south by the Ukie in one model run.
We don’t need much of a push from most Op run guidance to get into the decent stuff in the LSV.
Either way, I wouldn’t mind even a couple inches of snow if we end up getting fringed. Whatever we get should stick around for awhile.
The 12z Canadian shows a solid Advisory event this run for the LSV & more out towards @Bubbler86 & @MAG5035
It wouldn’t take much for a slight bump to the north to get more of CTP into the better goods if the confluence eases just a bit.