Blizzard of 93
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Everything posted by Blizzard of 93
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Here is end of the NAM run.
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Extrapolating the 0z NAM, it looks like an Advisory level event is underway.
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Lol, should have mowed it down to putting green style grass!
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CTP seems confident for Tuesday in the Harrisburg area. Monday Night A chance of snow after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Tuesday Snow likely, mainly before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 30. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
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Looks like a good hit for most of us.
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Didn’t you say that you just had 2 inches last Saturday? Lol, Your snow mowing should have allowed that to cover your yard!
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Many of us just had a Warning level event last Saturday. We still have a Winter storm chance on Tuesday & Friday this week. The longer range for late January & February looks promising on most guidance.
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18z RGEM looked promising & the 18z ICON was a decent hit. This is the first GFS run that has been a whiff, let’s see what 0z brings.
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The potential for a high end event for Tuesday may be slipping away, but I think a solid Advisory level event of 2 to 4 or so is very much still on the table.
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It’s not time for towel throwing yet. On to 0z…
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18z RGEM I believe would have been a decent hit for us. It looks similar to the end of the 12z Canadian which hit us the best at 12z today.
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Did he get banned because of last week?
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18z NBM blend still solid for Tuesday.
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Good post by @psuhoffman on late January & beyond… “The "other side" of whatever slight warm up we get is now on the GFS and its wicked cold. This is much closer to a Feb 2003, 2015 look than 2010 which is fine, just a different way to win. The ideal progression would be that dumps the cold back down...then the NAO tanks again with cold trapped under it. That's how we roll through into March with threat after threat. And it’s actually what the guidance suggests. “
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Jan 15-16 Storm Threat Thread: Do we finally win or get Saltburned?
Blizzard of 93 replied to H2O's topic in Mid Atlantic
12z EPS brought the “blue” back west to the eastern shore & NE MD. 6z barely had the blue on coastal NJ.
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The 12z EPS definitely ticked back west & now gets “blue” back into parts of Lancaster. The 6z run barely had blue on the coast of NJ.
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Thanks, but this will be a cold storm with good ratios, so I don’t think depth maps will be ideal for this type of event.
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In reviewing my handbook…. I’ll take the Canadian for Tuesday & the Euro for next Friday!
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Yes, Euro is onboard for the 19/20th. Lots of upside potential with this one due to the pattern. Euro agrees with GFS & Canadian on this threat. Snow on snow chance next week. Snow map is just for the late week 20th storm.
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Indeed, Euro was basically nothing near us at 0z to now up to 2 inches in parts of the LSV. Good baby step towards other guidance.
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Thanks & do you have the Ukie Kuchera map?
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Step back from last night’s 0z, but with Kuchera ratio, we still could have Warning level snow in the LSV.
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Agreed & 2 legit threats to track within the next week. Lots of upside potential as well for the 19th with the pattern at the time & Plenty of cold available. Here are the GFS & Canadian for the 19th chance for those that have not seen it yet.
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Canadian stepped Up from 0z last night & GFS stepped back a bit from 0/6z. Compromise would get Warning level snow to the LSV.
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Another slight bump up in snow on the 12z NBM blend of models in the LSV. Lancaster is now at 5 inches this run.
