Blizzard of 93

The NAMs are a good hit for the LSV.

21z SREF is good for the LSV

DT has this gem of a map out for start times tomorrow…. So many lines & colors…

Got it, I’m not familiar with them.

I like seeing a building area of precip in Kentucky & Tennessee as currently shown on radar that is moving slowly northeast. I agree that most Winters are built on 2 to 4 or 3 to 6 type of events. The double digit events are rare & only happen every few years or so on average. Hopefully, we score twice this week, which could get us back on track for an attempt at reaching our seasonal average snow.

Whose forecast is this?

This is the type of system that could overachieve with cold air in place & moisture approaching from the south.

Good CTP discussion & those ratios are sweet! “Increasing fgen forcing and favorable upper jet dynamics downstream of mid level trough digging through the Ohio Valley and developing low pressure off the East Coast is expected to produce a broad area of light snow across CPA Monday night into Tuesday. Ensemble data shows the highest probs (>50% chance) for 2+ inches over the southeast zones. We have general 1-3"forecast over most of the area, with the lowest amounts over the northern tier where surface ridging and dry air may limit the snowfall. A winter wx advisory may be needed for the lower Susquehanna Valley with 2" of snow. The character of the snow will be dry and fluffy with SLRs mainly in the 15-20:1 range. Light snow is forecast to pull to the northeast Tuesday afternoon and end by Tuesday evening. Another shot of arctic air will invade Tuesday night with min wind chills getting very close to -15F criteria over the Alleghenies. Most places will experience wind chills between 0 and -15F Wednesday morning.”

I just want in the good precip & it’s cold enough this time for snow, with good ratios.

I don’t mind seeing those higher totals on the 18z GFS just over the border in MD…right where we want it….

18z RGEM on board with CTP wide Advisory event.

I wouldn’t mind, but I think we are headed for an Advisory for 2 to 4 with a few lucky spots (checks notes…like Cashtown…) getting a chance of 5.

Cashtown jackpot…so book it!

Here is the 18z 3k NAM zoomed in view for some Sunday fun while we find our trash cans…

You’ll like both 18z NAMs then … Warning level snow to our southern tier countries this run.

CTP issued this for Tuesday.

Very nice Euro run for the Friday snow chance! Long duration storm this run that starts early Friday & wraps up Saturday around dawn. It would be a Warning level event as shown this run & only 5 days away… Snow map is for Only the 19th chance 24hr. Kuchera.

12z Euro is good for Advisory for Tuesday for us.

That’s my lean for Tuesday for 2-4 based on most guidance. Friday could have a bit more upside if it comes together just right.

15z NBM blend is juicing back up. More blue than the last few runs.

15z NBM blend is juicing back up.

Yes, indeed! This 12z GFS run as it stands would be a decent moderate event for the eastern half of CTP, but a few minor tweaks & this could become more.

12z Canadian looks good for most of us for Tuesday.

I don’t mind seeing those higher totals just to our south on the 12z GFS with almost 2 days to go.

12z RGEM still looks good for Tuesday.