Blizzard of 93
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Everything posted by Blizzard of 93
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The ensembles All continue to have a Great looks at the end of their 15/16 day runs. Big game hunting season is underway.
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Here is the 0z EPS for early next week. Literally everything is on the table. Look at the various low locations at just this one time stamp. Here is the best precip panel for the period & the snow over those few days.
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Who knows, literally everything is on the table from cutter, slider, to perfect track snowstorm. It might be 2 light events or 1 stronger event…no model has figured out this period yet.
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I agree…All of the models are still trying to figure out the 12th to 14th. Pattern changes can really throw models out of whack. Add in development of blocking, & the models really go off of the rails. For example, look at the Euro from 22z yesterday with a low in Ohio. The Euro 0z run for the exact same time has a low sliding off of the Carolina coast that misses us. Bottom line, this will take a few days to resolve.
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6z GFS has a different evolution for this period but still snows on us to a lesser extent than 0z, but on the 14th.
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I fell asleep early last night & missed this 0z coastal storm on the GFS for the 13th.
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It’s a shame, hopefully he can be back towards the end of the season for the playoffs.
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Disclaimer: These 15/16 day ensemble maps are just being shown to show a trend & to just be a tool to monitor pattern potential… Anyway, today is the first time since the last snowstorm on January 20th that each of the 3 ensembles have shown the “blue” pushing this far south into northern MD.
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Lol, same here. I’m hoping the threat on the 12th to 14th gets us some frozen to track. As @psuhoffman said recently, the H5 looks that we are seeing don’t come around often. Many times there are several years in between when we get these kind of pattern chances. The long range guidance was consistently showing the potential & now the ensembles have the pattern progression beginning on the 12th.
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I gassed up my snowblower today…
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I see great blocking up top, an undercutting STJ & a 50/50 low. I am not concerned in the least with Super week ridging showing in the upper Midwest on day 16, Also, yesterday the ensembles tried to do the same thing as what you showed, but it was gone by 12z today across all ensembles by day 16.
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Like you, @mitchnick & I just posted… the GFS is swinging wildly from run to run…no reason to worry or get excited by anything it shows, especially beyond day 7. All of the ensembles are locked in on a pattern change by the 13th with no can kick.
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Lol, just look at the changes that I just posted above with the changes at day 8 just from 12z to 18z…. I think this upcoming blocking is frying the GFS circuits!
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Yes, huge change on the GFS. 12z had a low over Cleveland & the 18z has a low over New Orleans at the exact same time.
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Either way, whether there are 1 or 2 waves in this period, it is the beginning of the new pattern & certainly 1000000% better than what we are dealing with during this current week.
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Here you go
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This runs from Sunday evening until Wednesday evening, but give me a minute.
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Here is the 12z EPS snow just for this 12th to 14th period.
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Good signal on the 12z EPS for the 12th to 14th potential. The precip panels seem to indicate a flatter potential, but the mean low positions have the same general idea with a western track low transferring to the coast. Long way to go, but we might finally have something specific to track.
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Same theme on the 12z GEFS. Better pattern arrives by the 13th & is going strong with impressive Greenland blocking by the 20th.
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Here you go.
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Here is the 12z Euro snow map for this run for this potential event on the 12th.
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The Euro has a Nice front end thump of snow on the 12th. Then it changes to a mix & rain for the southern tier. The low transfers a bit late for us this run to keep us all frozen, but we have a long way to go. I would take this to start off the new pattern.
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Canadian ensemble looks good at 10 & continues through day 16. Look at that blocking on day 16…
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I wouldn’t recommend planting anything now with what looks to be on the way for the second half of February.
