Blizzard of 93

Dew points in northeast PA are still in the single digits at this hour. Most of the rest of PA has dews in the teens.

Here is the 0z HRRR sleet & freezing rain for tomorrow.

We have a chance to get to average or above If we score a 6 to 8 inch Warning level event next week. Follow that up with at least some front or back end snow from the follow up waves later next week/early the following week, we will be well on our way. Then, we big game hunt when the blocking pattern sets in a little later in the month to put us over the top.

Ho-hum… just another 16 day ensemble run with double digit snow in the LSV. Day after day of this, again, which is super rare. 18z GEFS

Wow, you are turning over a new leaf, Lol!

Exactly! I think the Tuesday/Wednesday wave is coming into better focus. I like the Warning level snow potential for much of CTP. Beyond that, stay tuned. 50 to 100 miles will make a difference on where the boundary sets up.

But we should throw out Weatherbell maps because they are not the precious Pivotal maps… Lol!

Also with the low dew points, temps will fall when steady precipitation begins.

There will be tons of issues tomorrow. This should not be downplayed.

29/17 in Marysville & cloudy

6z GFS brings out the system next week in a couple of waves, but delivers the goods this run.

0z Euro was a PA crusher for next week’s snow chance.

0z ICON is a hit for next week.

I’m trying to rest up a bit…it’s going to be a long week or so with 3 events. Fun times not far away on here.

To clarify, we have seen this amount on an ensemble run a couple of days before a major storm, like in 2010 or 2016. But I have not seen this amount over a 16 day ensemble run period, especially with the first major snowstorm chance being 7 days away. MU is right… Buckle Up!

This is something that I have never ever seen in my over 20 years of following weather models closely… The 18z GEFS snow map showing over 14 inches of snow.

LSV is in the jackpot for next week.

The overnight ensembles are still looking very encouraging for the next 2 weeks.

More from CTP for this first event. By Wednesday evening, broad southeast flow in the wake of retreating high pressure will keep cold air locked in east of the mountains as a warm nose of overrunning precipitation overspreads the region. The aforementioned band of snow will gradually lift northeast ahead of a broad area of low pressure moving in from the Ohio Valley with a transition to sleet and eventually freezing rain during the overnight hours. Model soundings have indicated that the layer of cold air at the surface could be a little bit deeper than previous runs, indicating potential for a longer period of sleet overnight before an inevitable transition to freezing rain. QPF amounts are generally 0.25-0.5" along and north of I-80, >0.75" in the Laurels, and 0.5-0.75" east of I-99 and south of I-80. Accounting for the expected precipitation type transitions and timing, the current forecast paints snow/sleet accumulations of up to an inch for much of central and northeast PA (higher amounts under the aforementioned Wednesday snow band), and widespread 0.10"+ ice accretion with amounts >0.25" favored in the Laurel Highlands through midday Thursday.

From CTP forecast discussion… Temperatures are progged to rebound considerably Thursday afternoon, though temperatures soaring into the 50s appears less and less likely as the event draws closer. It is difficult to scour out the cold air after these events, so trending below guidance seems prudent

The LSV holds the cold & it is tough to scour out in these icing situations.

RGEM freezing rain

RGEM sleet

Sign me up for either NAM for this first event. I don’t mind ice storms as much if there is an inch or 2 of snow at the onset. It just makes the ice look more Wintry to me & it gives a little traction on the roads.