Blizzard of 93

No one knows where the good bands will set up tomorrow evening. I’ve seen storms like this get @MAG5035 into the good snow totals when he was supposed be somewhat fringed. There is often a second max area. Location TBD.

Holy NAM!!! It is in range & can’t be discounted! LFG!

CTP reissued the Watch early this morning and is going with 5 to 10 inches of snow at this point with winds up to 35 mph. (yes @canderson this includes downtown Harrisburg…lol) Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 439 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 PAZ057>059-064>066-220000- /O.CON.KCTP.WS.A.0004.260222T1000Z-260223T1800Z/ Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Adams-York-Lancaster- Including the cities of Hershey, Harrisburg, Gettysburg, Pottsville, Lancaster, York, and Lebanon 439 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 5 and 10 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph Sunday night and Monday. * WHERE...A portion of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From late tonight through Monday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...There is still some uncertainty regarding the track of this storm. Any westward shifts in the track may result in higher snowfall amounts. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

Definitely a step back on the 0z Euro & AI Euro as well. At least the AI Euro still gets low end Warning snow to the LSV.

0z GEFS was pretty much a hold vs.18z.

I am confident that heavier snow will make it further west than depicted IF this GFS track is correct.

0z GFS snow CTP close up.

Long duration monster on the 0z GFS. Starting Sunday am lasting until Monday am this run.

Who says the trends are over…?

Anyway, good to see even the somewhat worthless ICON bump precip totals at 0z over 18z.

Repeat after me… this is nothing like Boxing Day whatsoever! Back then, NYC was out of it until 24 hours before the storm…

My handbook says that it’s a bad unreliable model, so we toss, lol!

Good heavens, the 3k NAM has the low down to 965 at the end of its run at 7 am on Monday.

Even if the NAM verified, I don’t think many of us would be too upset with a widespread 8 to 12 in the LSV.

There is also usually a secondary jackpot outside of the main area depending on where the best bands set up. A low that’s deepening to that level will push some heavy bands well inland.

Still some wrap around ongoing early Monday afternoon!

Long duration… Starts Sunday am & just ramps up & continues through overnight into early Monday. Bring it!

Hopefully we reel this one in! I was just having fun with my last post to you & Canderson. We all have our posting tendencies & that is what makes this place great. I am still in a little disbelief that the GFS lead the way on this one so far and has not wavered much for a few days. I will be happy with a widespread 6 inches of snow with some lucky spots hitting double digits. Let’s see where the final trends take us this weekend up until game time.

I think it a fantastic sign with the last round of posts this evening… @canderson lowballing Harrisburg amounts & showing an incorrect Harrisburg forecast by CTP… Check! @Itstrainingtime time getting nervous & full of trepidation… Check! I say these things with love as long time posters… to me, it means it’s go time around here for a Winter Storm!

Good uptick on precip on the 18z AI EPS as well.

Don’t you dare bring up Boxing Day on here sir, lol! That storm took a convoluted track that went out & then up, putting the LSV on the edge. That storm was forecast Well out to sea & then crept back to life on Christmas Eve, but the LSV was on the fringe & it failed back here. That was a totally different scenario in my opinion.

Nope, nice try, lol! They just haven’t updated their grids. Winter Storm Watch includes Harrisburg… Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 140 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026 PAZ057>059-064>066-211145- /O.NEW.KCTP.WS.A.0004.260222T1000Z-260223T1800Z/ Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Adams-York-Lancaster- Including the cities of Pottsville, Hershey, Harrisburg, York, Lancaster, Lebanon, and Gettysburg 140 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 4 and 6 inches possible. * WHERE...A portion of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From late Saturday night through Monday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...There is still some uncertainty regarding the track of this storm. Any westward shifts in the track may result in higher snowfall amounts.

I just got a closer look at the 18z EPS and am really happy to see how many tucked ensemble members are showing this run. Total precip still looks good.

If the storm tracks as close to the coast as the GFS depicts, banding will extend WELL back inland beyond what is currently being shown. The LSV is in a good spot.

Wow! Let’s gooooooooo !!!!