Blizzard of 93

14 for my Marysville low.

I know more on here have not give up yet, I was just pointing out @psuhoffman being concerned that he was on the same side as JB, but now he has MU too on his side!

Not sure I’m following you here?

He’s on team @psuhoffman & JB! PSU should be happy that he has another pro Met besides JB on his side.

That’s great for them, especially with being a beach town. I’m at 19” for the season.

Here are where OFFICIAL reporting stations stand with seasonal snow numbers that will go into historical data records for this Winter season through today. MDT - 15.5 BWI - 12.7 DCA -14.8 IAD - 15.5 RIC -7.7 SBY -17.8 ACY - 13.8 In summary, Salisbury, MD is the only OFFICIAL reporting station to our south in our general region that has more snow than MDT, by a whopping 2.3 more inches to date.

I’ll be posting data soon to back this up.

I don’t agree with this at all. DC got more snow than us only 2 times this Winter. We got more snow than them 1 time while they got rain. This “it’s a southern” Winter is BS to me.

Lol, you guys have been making great posts, thanks. I just liked PSU’s post, especially since he mentioned Central PA, so I brought it over here to share.

Here’s the latest from @psuhoffman : Honestly…If all the globals looked like the NAM right now I’d be sweating bullets that it could trend further NW given a closed H5 and h7 low tracking through Ohio and PA. Honestly that’s normally a snow to mix type track for us. For reference March 2017 Dec 2020 and Feb 2021 had similar mid and upper level tracks. If I was looking the h5 of a long range run like I often do first when I flipped to the surface I’d kinda expect to see a central PA snow jack type storm. The extremely cold air mass and 1050 high helps mitigate that here. But remember when someone was throwing out March 2001 because of the h5 similarities. That was modeled to miss us south all week and Mets were saying what I am now, that it “should” be more north. Then at 48 hours it came north…and just kept going lol. Now wouldn’t that be the ultimate kick in the nuts. If tomorrow all the models come back north and show us getting 20” and we throw a party. Then they keep going and it ends up a central PA jack and we get snow to rain!

Philly had nothing on the 12z ICON & now has .25 QPF at 18z DC went from .13 to .40 at 18z Long way to go. 18z top 12z bottom

Please let it be like 2016 when the NAM led the way!

Boom! NAM at 18Z

Yes, here’s the end of the NAM at 84 hours with more to go this run if it continued. All long range NAM caveats aside, it shows another potential option to get at least a moderate event to the LSV. 12z NAM

Exactly, thanks & snow maps are just showing model output. Just because a poster posts a map doesn’t necessarily mean that is their forecast or that it should be believed. We just show what an official weather model had for that particular run. Also those of us that have been doing this for decades know that storms can show on the models, get “lost” for a day or 2 and then come back to original ideas sometimes. Maybe some people on here should find another board if they don’t like or understand how things work in this hobby or profession for some.

0z Euro has Warning snow of 6 to 10 for the LSV.

I’m making lots of notes for when this comes back…

The towel waving is laughable… The Winter is over talk is laughable… How do some of you people give up so easily?

Seriously, can one of you veteran guys on here get this dude off of my back. He’s waaayyyy out of line. I’m super pissed.

So are your posts… I’m still waiting for your first ever quality post… Maybe take a break?

I must have actually slept until April 1st… Happy April Fools Day everyone!

I must have slept for 5 days… Happy Friday everyone!

I merely answered the question of when the comeback starts?

Lol, how about you don’t accuse me of anything & stop freaking posting?

This is great info from @psuhoffman : The high is to the NW not N or NE of the system which is less suppressive. If you're referring to my comments about the analogs typically being a NW storm...I pointed out those setups didn't have the cold and high pressure to the extreme we have so it changes things. But those setups all ended up NW of progged at 100 hours. The true arctic boundary is through DC leading into the event. Yes there is cold well to our south but its not deep cold...the cold boundary down in the TN valley is shallower cold. We've got major snows well up into our area that started with a boundary there. But the key is for the wave associated with the arctic front to be the one that activates and amplifies NOT the one along the coastal front. That does not mean a cutter...the storm type I am thinking here with a somewhat similar h5 progression (DOES NOT MEAN THIS STORM GETS TO THE LEVEL OF THESE) is 1996, Feb 2006, March 2017. March 2017 is the best example of a TPV split where the storm rides up in between with a very similar H5 track of the upper low. What screwed us in that storm was the arctic boundary wave to our west amplified too much and held on way too long. I am NOT saying that should happen...but that the wave on that boundary should be the one with more focus not down over the SE so far disconnected from all the energy. Feb 2006 we had boudary issues but the 850 line was way down further south than it is here. That storm also had a wave on the arctic boundary that helped draw it up or it would have been way OTS had it focused on the coastal front. Same with 1996. If you amplify the wave a bit more along the arctic front that shallow cold south of the arctic boundary can be overcome really easy. Watch how fast that boundary can rocket NW if you amplify a wave along the boundary just a little. God knows we've seen that kill us 10000 times, why can't it help us once? When I look at the H5 track I don't see a suppressed look...usually the heaviest snow ends up close to the base of the H5 track northward and that is coming across out our latitude. It's rare to see a big snowstorm hit Richmond and Ocean City from a cut off H5 low that tracks through Ohio and PA. Find me a good example of that. If the H5 looked like this...March 1980... I would be really worried. Some other storms that Jacked SE of DC, and all of these at least got 6" into the DC Baltimore area but the Jack was SE of 95...but look at the H5 and how suppressive it is or how far south in some cases a cut off Now look at the H5 even on the GFS for our system and this is the most hostile h5 look of all the runs today...but one of these h5 does not look like all the others! Ive been looking at SE misses, you know how I obsess over every thing that can go wrong, and I don't see any that look like this at H5. That doesn't mean I think a NW miss is likely...I think the colder regime here offsets a H5 look that without a crazy 1050 high WOULD be an issue for a possible NW track. I could also see a SE miss if we had a really weak system. That isnt suppression its just a weak system not amplifying enough to gain latitude. I would be more worried about runs that don't show much snow anywhere and a 3-6" snow missing to our SE. That is very believable. But a storm amplified enough to cause a 12" snow somewhere with the H5 low that far to the NW and a flow that is not at all suppressive just sliding ENE and OTS, well its not the profile of our SE misses with 12" snows just to our SE. That said...I guess there is a first time for everything... or maybe the models end up right but for the wrong reason and the wave trends to a disconnected weak POS and there is no 10" plus snows anywhere! That would be a more typical way to miss in this h5 setup. But I don't see a scenario where MO gets 16" of snow and a wave is approaching us from the TN/OH valley with that h5 look and suddenly it gets suppressed to our south. That doesn't add up to me. I am not trying to be confrontational...I am always open to learning and I am wrong plenty so I am willing for anyone to show me where I am wrong here...I just don't see any comps to this. What I do see when I tried to find similar setups with a splitting TPV under a west based block where the western lobe splits and cuts off over the upper midwest are mostly storms that ended up if anything more amplified than we want, not less.