Blizzard of 93

Heavy sleet with a few mangled flakes in Marysville. Temp is 30

We need that Wednesday night into Thursday follow up wave to speed up a bit & minimize the separation so we can capitalize on the remaining cold.

18z RGEM is more like what we were seeing 2 days ago on the globals. This would be a moderate event that is still very much in play. More snow to go at the end of this run for us.

Radar is really blossoming in western PA

18z ICON had a sizable jump north over its 12z run for the Tues/Wed event. I don’t have good ICON maps on WB, so ignore the snow to our north which is from the event tonight. 18z top 12z bottom

At this point, I would sign for that on Tuesday.

18z ICON has .50 of precip from near the turnpike on north for today.

We don’t need much of a shift over the next couple of days to get back to a widespread 3 to 6 event for the LSV.

CTP updated the Advisory again at 1:21 pm… No Changes! Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 121 PM EST Sat Feb 8 2025 PAZ025>028-035-036-056-057-059-063>066-090800- /O.CON.KCTP.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-250209T0800Z/ Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Fulton-Franklin-Perry-Dauphin- Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- Including the cities of Carlisle, Lancaster, Huntingdon, Mifflintown, Mount Union, Newport, Harrisburg, McConnellsburg, Chambersburg, York, Hershey, Lewistown, Altoona, Gettysburg, and Lebanon 121 PM EST Sat Feb 8 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation. Snow and sleet accumulations up to two inches and ice accumulations between one tenth and two tenths of an inch. * WHERE...A portion of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...Until 3 AM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

This needs bumped… The panic & lack of patience for an event to get started never ever fails on here…lol!

GFS ticked slightly north for the LSV for the Tuesday into Wednesday chance.

The latest HRRR & ICON have much more precip for the LSV for today.

Let’s take it one at a time. Let’s hope we get 2 inches today & then go from there.

This was my favorite part….thunder chance!

An elevated unstable layer with mean 850-750 mb LIs near or just below 0C will advance as far north as the RT22/322 corridor during the mid to late evening hours with some thunder snow/sleet expected across the SW third to half of the CWA.

Great forecast discussion from CTP for today’s event. NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Quite a difficult forecast with PTYPE and intensity concerns muddying the otherwise expected snow/ice gradient acrs our CWA from NE to SW. 1027 mb sfc high was located over KIPT early today with light and variable wind and gradually increasing high clouds streaming in from the west. A perfect setup to maintain deep cold llvl air prior to the arrival of precip. The nose of a very strong low-mid lvl south to swrly jet over 60 kts will push up and over the steep southern and western edge of the sfc cold dome, locked in across Central and Eastern PA. Temps starting out mainly between 10-20F with T/Td spreads of a few to 10 deg F will set the stage for some vigorous UVVEL from this LLJ (and possibly surprisingly heavy burst of snow) for 1-3 hours late this afternoon and evening with Max Wet Bulb temps aloft only 0.5-1 deg C above freezing (in the 800-750 mb layer with 900-875 mb temps as low as -6 to -7C) providing an optimal setup for steep ascent for large snowflake aggregates and potential 1-2 inch per hour rates from near or just east of KUNV north and east to KIPT and KSEG. An elevated unstable layer with mean 850-750 mb LIs near or just below 0C will advance as far north as the RT22/322 corridor during the mid to late evening hours with some thunder snow/sleet expected across the SW third to half of the CWA. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/... Snow, heavy at times will be found across the NE third of the CWA this evening with a gradually transition to a several hour period of moderately heavy sleet across the region near and to the SW of RT 322 from KFIG to KUNV and KMDT, while the depth of degree of the elevated warm nose will support a lengthy period of mainly FZRA further SW across the Laurel Highlands. The occluded front moves through the region late tonight with just some shallow strato cu and areas of light snow or fzdz through the predawn hours. Snow accums will range from 1 inch or less over the Laurels to between 2-3 inches near the RT 322 corridor to between 3-4 inches with locally higher amounts possible across the higher terrain near and to the North and East of KIPT. Ice accums of 0.25-0.35 inch appear highly likely across the Laurel Highlands. Latest model guidance indicates most likely onset times of wintry precip range from around 15Z south of the turnpike from Somerset to Franklin counties, mid afternoon along the I-80 corridor and early evening over the northern tier counties.

Good morning, I’m hoping a little over performer today as well. Here’s the 12z HRRR for today.

@Voyager this is your revised WWA today. Now says up to 3 inches for you. Maybe the HRRR “sniffed” it out, lol.

Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 454 AM EST Sat Feb 8 2025 PAZ004-010>012-017>019-045-046-049>053-058-090300- /O.CON.KCTP.WW.Y.0013.250208T2000Z-250209T0800Z/ Warren-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-Northern Centre- Southern Centre-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder- Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Schuylkill- Including the cities of Renovo, Pottsville, Clearfield, Warren, Selinsgrove, Philipsburg, St. Marys, State College, Sunbury, Lock Haven, Shamokin, Bloomsburg, Danville, Williamsport, Lewisburg, Emporium, Ridgway, Berwick, and DuBois 454 AM EST Sat Feb 8 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...A few hour period of moderate to heavy snow possible late this afternoon and early this evening, then sleet followed by light freezing rain late. Total snow and sleet accumulations between 2 and 3 inches and ice accumulations up to one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...A portion of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 454 AM EST Sat Feb 8 2025 PAZ025>028-034>036-056-057-059-063>066-090300- /O.CON.KCTP.WW.Y.0013.250208T1800Z-250209T0800Z/ Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Perry- Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- Including the cities of Mount Union, Lebanon, Huntingdon, Gettysburg, Altoona, Lewistown, Carlisle, Harrisburg, Lancaster, Mifflintown, York, Chambersburg, Bedford, McConnellsburg, Hershey, and Newport 454 AM EST Sat Feb 8 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations up to two inches and ice accumulations up to one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...A portion of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 1 PM this afternoon to 3 AM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Any untreated roads or sidewalks will be treacherous. CTP revised the WWA for the LSV & South central PA this am for up to 2 inches of snow/sleet followed by freezing rain later today.

Ok, just for you… The upcoming blocking pattern could support a strong coastal…fun times are possibly ahead the rest of the month.

You’re right…the last several runs of the HRRR even show a couple of inches down to the PA turnpike. Maybe we get a little surprise… or it’s on something as you said, lol.

Sorry to hear that man! Hopefully we have a good trend for Tuesday to try to brighten your day.

0z Euro AI had a very slight tick North with the overall extent of precip over its last run for the 24 hour period for the Tuesday into Wednesday am chance.