Blizzard of 93

March of 2014 had 3 storms that were modeled to hit Northern PA 2 days out, then bullseyed us the day before, then ended up hitting MD & DC while we whiffed on game day.

The latest SREFs absolutely nuke the LSV.

He is a great Met & knows his stuff.

This is making me very, very happy…

Susquenita, my kids school district, just announced a “Flexible Instruction Day”, so they will be learning at home tomorrow.

Yes, the 18z Euro has minimal difference this run between Kuchera & 10-1 in the LSV.

Good, & it will be deepening as it heads northeast.

Lol, they actually posted somewhat respectable totals for the 3 January snow events.

I’ll take it! My yard & MDT are pretty close to the 6 to 10!

21z HRRR bumped up totals for Harrisburg & Altoona by about an inch.

This looks to be in line with the 18z NAM & GFS. This is a juiced system taking a near perfect track for the southern half of PA.

Happy Hour GFS has stopped the bleeding south for CTP. Warning snow this run for everyone from the MD line up to about I-80 in the Susquehanna Valley.

You always want a little room to allow for any possibility of a last minute north shift.

Great to see the good trends with the overnight models.

GFS also has the Saturday snow chance

Where do I sign?

Speaking of Lebanon….where the heck has @paweather been lately?

Harrisburg went from 1.4 at 18z to 7.1 at 0z on the ICON.

Good to see the ICON joining the party. Insane rates with this 980 low off of Southern NJ.

Good catch, here are this CTP comments. “there remains some model spread in the exact low track, which could alter exactly where the heaviest precipitation falls. The 18Z EPS for instance now tracks the surface low a bit further south, which could result in the heaviest precipitation falling over extreme Southern PA and shift the axis of heaviest snow from just north of I-80 to just south of it. Marginal surface temperatures and uncertainty where the potential CSI banding occurs argues for riding the current Winter Storm Watch over much of the region. Still can`t rule out significant snow as far south as the I-81 corridor based on the latest southern shift in the models.”

I like seeing the dew points dropping currently into the mid 20s in NW PA at this hour.

3k NAM improved again for Harrisburg which gets 6 on the Kuchera map this run.

Impressive NAM run. Rates would be insane if this verifies.

NAMing underway!

Hopefully the NAM brings the goods again soon.