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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2021/09/enhanced-risk-for-significant-episodes.html
  2. I don't know, maybe I am missing something, but I would be surprised if this la nina event reached moderate strength, at this point...not that it means a great deal in the grand scheme of things.
  3. I think the moral of the story is that this winter should be serviceable in the east.
  4. What is your NAO formula looking like? Must be getting to that point soon...
  5. I feel like a very similar evolution to last year with a bit less blocking would play out pretty nicely in my area....shove that shear zone NE.
  6. West based la ninas are warmer, though...
  7. I wonder if that Indonesian convection that scooter keeps hinting at could induce somewhat of a STJ presence this season? I'm not saying 100" in Boston, but you know what I mean...
  8. If memory serves correct, we generated a bit of blocking, and there were some nice events that easily could have buried the coast, but instead favored the deep interior, regardless....kind of like Feb 2007. Chaos is often the deciding factor in the end...
  9. Feb '95 was a break or two away from being a really good month....as it was, I had one event of around a foot.
  10. I do not think blocking sticks around. I will entertain the idea that it may redevelop in March, perhaps, but there will be an extensive break. That doesn't have to mean no snow during that period...especially up and in.
  11. Right....those are the dead-ratters....the '99 rat was still twitching a bit.
  12. I January and March 1999, but it was a crap season for me. There are certainly worse seasons, but 41.9" is a solid 20" below average for me.
  13. Goes along with the theme of more extremes that we observed in snow events. Interesting...
  14. I would be pretty surprised if at least the month of December doesn't register neg NAO....does it stick all year? Doubtful.
  15. Last year, too, at least from my area points north.
  16. 1984-1985 and 1954-1955 are the only other two la nina/neg NAO seasons that I can see that were not above avg snowfall for us.
  17. Blocking+Miller B=Take your steady dose of storms tracking just se of you during max deepening, and like it.
  18. The reason that I think blocking during la nina is a stronger signal for snow in NE, than in an el nino is bc there isn't much that can go wrong with a n stream dominant storm track coupled with blocking. You are just about locked into favorable tracks for the vast majority of storms. During el nino, you and get 2010ed, or 1979ed.
  19. 2005-2006 was mitigated somewhat by the obscene Pac jet.
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