40/70 Benchmark

Count me out

I think the subsurface is just insurance against la nina going nuts.

No worries, do whatever gets your rocks off....judment free zone this day and age.

Here is one for @forkyforkto link in OT

Just about to the time of year when 80s are climo.

Yea, 2010-2011 was my primary ENSO analog...I agree, there. In hindsight, I feel like a moron for mixing up December and January considering that 2010-2011 with the epic January was so high on my list of ENSO analogs.

Yea, tomorrow will suck.

That's about the ceiling for this time of year...lay out on the naked and hope to view an ominous cloud that will look not so ominous as it makes it over the ORH hills on approach.

Yea, I don't get my rocks off by staring at fat men's sweat stains like some....this is fine by me.

I may have to just move to Moose up

Heat queens be queening, temp jack be jacking....me? I'm still smiling....

I don't think it will be anything more than a weak la nina...in fact, I'm pretty confident of that. This is not a bad development....take a weak la nina this season, and by punting on el nino for another year, it really sets us up for 2023-2024 with an easterly QBO and likely modoki el nino. Think of this as the bridge year, and all the chips are laid out in 2023-2024. As for this year more specifically, the PAC won't be as hostile as it was last season, so its not like we won't have a shot. One thing to watch for is that this could be more of a central-based modoki la nina than last year, which was east-based. That in a vacuum is not good, but its not that big of a deal when the ENSO signal itself is relatively meager, such as it should be this winter. If it is more central based, I feel like this year will be more front loaded than last year, so it maybe a better holiday season and a more subpar mid season relative to last year. The one and only reason last season was not an unmitigated disaster the likes of 2011-2012 is because the la nina was very east-biased, which allowed for that poleward Aleutian ridge mid season to provide a nice wintery stretch....without that, it would have been 3 months of "shut off the lights and close the door".

Highly anecdotal, but I'm not just saying it because I like snow....also, understand that the period would still be much milder than the 60s due to climate change. Just mean more -PDO/NAO.

Complete agreement. Its cool to arrive at the same conclusion via so many different methodologies....lends itself to increased confidence. I don't see an el nino...doesn't mean that it won't be a good winter in the east, but it is what it is.

I was just saying to someone last week that he have had a slew of 1950s like winters over the course of the past several years, and we may be heading into a stretch more akin to the 1960s moving forward. That would be it.

Looks like an NAO-west sig.

@StormchaserChuck!I agree that la nina is going to neutralize, and it is very possible that we see an el nino like pattern materialize during the cold season. All I am saying is that given the current state of the subsurface and the surface in the equatorial Pacific, an el nino by CPC guidelines next winter is exceedingly unlikely. Neutral or even warm-neutral is very possible; sure.

A grand total of zero el nino seasons followed those nine analogs. I rest my case.

That's what April through October is around here. Just check out.....unless you wanna fantasize about stein and sit on your finger.

Some good rain in Chelsea right now.

I'm not sure it will manifest quickly enough to impact this winter in a big way, so it maybe more for the 2023-2024 season. As far as my modoki assertion, we always have one within a couple of years of emerging from a multi-year cold ENSO event. 1957-1958, 1977-1978, 1986-1987, 2002-2003, 2009-2010 and 2014-2015. Obviously, the ones that spread the love more and are better for you folks are the more formidable events that invoke the STJ, like 1957-1958, 1986-1987, 2002-2003 and 2009-2010. The weak events like 1977-1978 and 2014-2015 are more N stream dependent and NE focused.

Just to make things easier on you, here is the original blog post: Winter Outlook 2020-2021: Addendum # 1: ENSO & Tropical Background | Eastern Mass Weather If you poke around, there are other pieces like it on other considerations for winter forecasting. I release a series of educational pieces as a "primer" to the outlook instead of within the outlook itself now. This is done in an effort to cut down on the length of the actual outlook product and make it less burdensome to read.

I could see something like that. Definitely going to end up el nino next year, and very likely a modoki.