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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Steined here. Just .11"
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    2017-2018 was my last good winter.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would take the opposite of the last 7 years.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Perhaps the most shocking fact of all is that we have continued to avoid the inevitable Long Island Express that is long overdue-
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't expect that to change.....goes with the Pacific cold phase tendency. -AO/NAO/PNA early and late season, with +AO/NAO/PNA sandwiched in the middle.....+AO/NAO definitely tipping the seasonal mean in that direction, but I think the -PNA portion will also win out in the mean. Just not as extreme as 2022-2023.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes and yes.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, winter is always going to warm faster than summer because there is so much more mosture in the air during the warm season.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    +NAO/+PNA January, I bet....best shot at blocking being December/ latter Feb and March.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Where I agree with Chris is I do think that this latest round of global warming has augmented and probably protracted this pattern...I do think there is some level of feedback there.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Chris, that 2022-2023 season was an exception in that it was def. more -PNA that year....it was about as extreme as it gets and it definitely foiled what would have otherwise been a damn good December and March...at least at my latitude. Give me that season again with a bit less -PNA and I would be happy.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I agree, too....but I would still bet on more snowfall than last year for my locale because I don't think it will be as dry.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes...this fits with what I am saying about a decidedly +NAO season still having a period or two of extensive blocking...which don't have to mean a HECS necessarily, either.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, but things also appear to be linging up for a decent period or two of -NAO/-AO....it doesn't have to mean a -NAO/-AO season, nor does it have to mean a wall-to-wall omnipotent PV...ins fact, it most often somewhere in between. Think eclectic, and non-binary.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Someone not heeding the advice below may have been optimistic about the 2023-2024 El Nino due to the belief that the relatively paltry MEI and RONI values were more favorable for cold and snow opportunities in the east. I know that I was. This is a perfect example of why the post below is so crucial. One other peice of advice would be to not be afraid to admit mistakes and never stop learning.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is why its important to be as multidimensional, exhuastive and all-encompassing as possible when doing an outlook...there are no silver bullets. 2011-2012 was also a moderately strong Modoki La Nina that occured during high solar. I think if I had to offer advice to anyone doing an outlook, that sentence would be read "be eclectic in your approach as possible and be ever mindful that nothing operates in a vacuum".
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Chris articulated it best when he said that the west warm pool was competing with, and masking the El Nino to an extent....this is why the RONI and especially the MEI were relatively low.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I'm optimistic about perhaps a-NAO month and a good period or two, but not the DM period in the mean.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    87.8
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think the more reasonable ask is for a mismatch month....probably January if I had to guess.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its a weather forum...more like dicks n dudes
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its not anecdotal....winters are definitely warming more...my guess is because there is so much moisture around during summer these days.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    We usually have at least one GTG among SNE members, usually around the holidays. We have them in CT sometimes....you should come if we have it down there. Most of them are in Worcester because of its central location...its relatively equidistant to many locales. Yea, totally sarcastic...obviously I know there is a great deal of validity to your posts.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    I hit 89 yesterday...just missed.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Oh yea...M Cloudy 86.4
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    You are such a sally...I have had 7 consecutive subpar seasons...sure, your lows are lower than mine, but you had a good a couple of good seasons in 20-21 and 21-22 capped off with an epic blizzard, which became yet another nightmare amongst my rolodex of sordid winter traumas.
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