40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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Great post.....totally agree. I know its an el nino, but I mentioned January to February 1969 as another example of blocking patterns taking a while of pay dividends.
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Up to 43.4 from 19.4
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2021-2022 ENSO
40/70 Benchmark replied to StormchaserChuck!'s topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I said last fall I was pretty confident that it would be at least a healthy moderate warm ENSO next year....but we'll see what things look like later this year. -
My Winter Outlook for 2022-23
40/70 Benchmark replied to raindancewx's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
No one said that. But all else being equal, it provides the cold with more staying power, which is why it is linked to colder patterns in the northeast on average. At present all else is not equal because there is no mechanism to drive the cold southeast as of yet. -
My Winter Outlook for 2022-23
40/70 Benchmark replied to raindancewx's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Agree, but neither is calling me an "idiot" and making baseless accusations of plagiarism. Tough not to lose your cool when you present evidence to the contrary and the unsubstantiated claims continue. It should be a warn able offense. But as an LICSW, I should know better than to use that language in a derogatory manner. My apologies. -
Absolutely. Will I do it? Probably not lol I know what you are driving at....hahaha
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Even last week, I said the threat period began AFTER THE 10TH, so this is for the most part valid. Maybe I should have left out the mention of a potential colder than initially assessed outcome for the month December.
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I will admit that I was a little too quick to entertain the notion of a faster transition to a more favorable look than my original outlook implied. I do feel like I jumped the gun a bit on my update last week...but my overall ideas seem right on track and I am not concerned in the least.
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Usually when this place gets like this, its wise to just scale back engagement until a concrete threat materializes.
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....and I'm sure you could rest easy if we had a blizzard modeled at day 13....
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Glad you went "all in" then!
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What is uninspiring is the selective reading comprehension....I feel like it was always stressed how the first several days of the pattern change was tenuous for a lot of areas, and now that it isn't going to work out for said areas, fingers point.
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And there is a change....we go from nothing happening to a pattern that favors the interior and higher elevation.
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This is how I feel about most of December...mid Atlantic waits until after NY IMO.
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Probably, but I still see a path to normalish.
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Very true, but regardless, I think the higher end potential is beyond mid month....whether that be the 20th of the 28th.
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We'll see...loooong way to go.
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No, I agree with you. Its a valid threat.....just suspecting that the even higher end potential is beyond. Not meant to shift focus away from that thead...not even starting a thread haha
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I was worried about a colder than forecast outcome with respect to December for about a week, but doesn't look to be the case....the NAO maybe a bit stronger than expected this month, but so is the RNA so far.
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Looks about on target...
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I don't mean a thread, I mean a blog update with more of a focus beyond mid month.
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I'll probably do a post tomorrow introducing that higher end threat period in a general sense.
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Just whipping through the EPS, it looks to me like the real higher-end potential is after about the 20th and towards Xmas, as the shift westward in forcing begins to manifest in the form of some ridging out west as the block also begins to mature. That period into January is when all hell could break lose.
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How inspiring would you expect it to be for threats over 10 days out? The 10th-15th is fair game, but its more of a bonus period IMO.
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I won't be surprised if we end up having to wait until past mid-month.....the return on these blocking patterns is often greater down the line when its weakening.
