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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    To be fair, models have also be underestimating that warm pool east of Japan, which is the primary driver of the residual -PDO...so that goes both ways...can be said for both competing forces.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, we'll just have to see. I understand that....this is why it wouldn't be wise to hedge towards an outcome as severe as 1965, in addition to CC, of course.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Total agreement.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    You would think that would be reflected in the precip output, but perhaps the models are just in error in that regard. We shall find out. BTW, I think the break did you well....your approach to disagreement is noticeably different and great for discussion.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, but you are neglecting the western portion of that "birdge", which actually has the heaviest precipitation anomaly...this is why I argue for increased variability relative to the super composite.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I was arguing that the forcing would be little to the west of the super-El Nino composite due to that, and you disagreed....it was like a couple of weeks ago.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right...like I said in my original point, which you disagreed with....PDO is not the driver, but it is reflective of the drivers, so it shouldn't be ignored.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm not crazy about the JMA this season....it has continued to try to turn this event into a Modoki, which never made much sense to me, and makes even less since now that it's getting the warm pool that far east.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    You were resisting me on the importance of the 30C warm pool with respect to forcing when it was modeled south of Hawaii, and I was arguing it would compete with the east-based El Nino, but now that there is support for it getting further east it's full-steam ahead. lol
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Thanks for the elaboration. We can agree to disagree. I don't think it's the <20C waters that is the issue, but rather the continued high-octane OHC that has been building in the western portion of the basin relative to the eastern section over the past decade plus. Obviously the west PAC has always been warmer given the Walker Cycle, but I think part of the reason we have seen this barrage or La Nina events this decade is due to the growing disparity between the west/eastern basins as a product of CC augmenting the cool phase of the multidecadal cycle. Sure, now we have the unprecedented magnitude of this El Nino finally working to restore some balance, but I have a hard time believing there won't be any resistance.....I think we are seeing that with respect to the lethargic rate of recovery of the PDO, most prominently evidenced by the warmth building east of Japan, as well as the residual disconnect between the El Nino and sensible weather over the course of the summer and into the fall. This battle is why I feel the forcing is modeled west of the intense-El Nino composite.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    @LakePaste25I'd love to hear why the PDO isn't reflective of crucial forcing. The "X" emoji's are similar to the gaudy AI visuals in that they add very little value. -PDO is not reflective of El Nino, but rather a competing force...you can ignore it at your own peril, or figure out what said force is and account for it.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right, but it's a refection of hemispheric forcing that absolutely has a profound effect on the long wave pattern. You are missing the point....it's like seeing a juiced-up disturbance ridging the STJ and up the coast, but telling people not to worry about the arctic high parked over Ottawa because it can't produce precipitation. Sure, but it will interact with entities that absolutely can. Stop viewing the atmosphere in a vacuum and focus on how everything interacts. You don't consume a bag of flower for dessert, right? No, you bake into the pie first.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Eh, details...it looks awesome, though, right?
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    2006 had a huge October NAO block, and then the winter sucked rectal-cheese.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Must say, you have done an exemplary job with your diagnosis of this El Nino. Kudos, and genuinely glad to have you back.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Tool bag....always beware of the "forecasting" entities that use gaudy AI visuals...it's a compensation.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Decent QBO analogs.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Displaced where...southward?
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    1997 actually isn't that bad of a QBO analog upon closer look...not great, but not bad...def. awful for solar, though. I think I will include it on the QBO composite given how strong of an ENSO match it is....solar is prohibitive of its' inclusion of a polar analog, though.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is being updated: 30MB: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index 50MB: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u50.index
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm convinced their EMI product is garbage this season....it's been trying to flip this into a central-based event since last summer, along with the CANSIPS, and they both just continue can-kicking.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Is this copyright protected?
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Too bad he copyrighted it...I wanted to steal that forecast, said no one with a modicum of genuine meteorological insight.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Totally agree on the CANSIPS.
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