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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Maybe it eventually becomes more east-based given how far east the warm pool is relative to other events, but right now at the surface this is clearly basin-wide and not as east-based as 1997. I have posted the weekly figures. It's similar to 2015. Do I think that this really matters? No, there is so much warm water throughout the ENSO basin. This all screams "variable pattern that is warm in the seasonal mean" to me.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Clearly my early hunch was wrong, as is often the case.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    They are touting the pattern in the composite of Super El Nino events as being comparable to the precursor pattern in SSW events, which when combined with W QBO favors a warming in January or February. While I agree that any warming will be during the second half, I can't help but question why we haven't actually seen any SSW during super El Nino events, despite the similarity to the precursor pattern....then don't address that. They are also focusing on the low arctic sea ice as a big factor to predisposing the PV to disruption.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, last year was still close enough to the max that geomagnetic energy, which lags max by a couple of years and is most highly correlated with +NAO, hadn't really kicked in yet. My solar composite (top right) looked like the rest of my composites last year, which resembled the ultimate pattern.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    This goes along with the blocky March theme that I just mentioned....
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Severe Weather Weenie Europe really beating the disturbed PV drum for next winter.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'll have a blog update within the next few days, followed by an ENSO update next week.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    I've come up with 6 Solar analogs and 5/6 averaged positive NAO in the seasonal mean (one was very slightly negative), 3/6 had at least one month between DJFM that averaged -NAO and it looks as though the strongest signal is March. My money is on Chuck's formula shifting more positive from here on out, but I don't expect it to be an overwhelming signal, like last year.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Thanks
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, the heat in the Pacific is going to be the main driver one way or another this winter for sure.....agree on that.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    I could see the mean being more like 140W, but either is reasonable.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm beginning my work on the polar domain, as far as solar, QBO, Atlantic subsurface (with help from Chuck) and ENSO considerations....I should have a more definitive stance by next week.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I highly doubt we see as much MC interference as 2023, and while I am not yet convinced that there will be less than 2015, I am certainly open to the idea.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, it's clearly BOSS in the tropics...just need to get that into the mid latitudes, which it ultimately will with any luck.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Hey @Stormchaserchuck1, what is the calculation of your NAO index right now?
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    I woke up to wet ground, so creeped into N fringe of MA.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agreed.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    I am speaking in the present....I agree there is a chance that this one can become a more prominent hemispheric driver, but we aren't there yet. This is all I meant on Sunday when I Said El Nino still had work to do.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    The influence of ENSO, especially warm ENSO, is more geographically restricted now and more largely relegated to the tropics, regardless of it's intensity. Powerful events are more influential....in the tropics. However, the mid latitudes are now more dictated by these marine heat waves and expanding ridges. I get what Adam is saying....this El Nino is a powerhouse, but it's just that it's more the scope of Andrew rather than Katrina.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Exactly what I was getting at the past couple of days...pattern resembles La Nina right now. In the past, this would imply a flaw in the development of El Nino, whether it be weak and/or poorly coupled. However, that is not necessarily the case in our modern climate. Powerful, well coupled warm ENSO and cold phase Pacific are no longer mutually exclusive due to the degree of heat that is now stored in the Pacific basin. ENSO simply isn't as prominent a driver anymore because it's partially offset and this is what RONI tries to convey. I think Adam perceived this as me saying that El Nino isn't as well developed as most think, but that is not at all the case. It's just facing more prominent competition from around the hemisphere relative to it's predecessors.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    If possible, 1941-1970 and 1961-1980 would be ideal.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, we aren't getting a "high-end" season with an El Nino that potent even if everything worked out perfectly...just too great a volume of Miller A systems. I will bet anything that the signature storm of the season will jackpot the mid atlantic...maybe we still get slammed, but to a lesser extent. Our ceiling this season is normal to maybe about 10-12" above normal snowfall....like 1965-1966. But odds strongly favor less than that.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Appreciate that...no worries at all. We're all very passionate about the weather.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Solar-nape season ends in 4 weeks.
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