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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, but much needed rain.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    It absolutely will....but I think it could also be snowier, and in fact it likely will be.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Don't forget the fact that the solar cycle and QBO are also more hostile. In the interest of being truly exhaustive, I think you also need to consider the ramifications of that 30 years of warming on the Pacific basin, as it's been biasing convective forcing westward relative to expectations derived from traditional diagnosis, such as max ENSO SST anomaly.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    1983 followed a very common El Niño Modoki Index trajectory in that it began extremely east-based, then began to decay westward post-peak. I still expect this one to do that to an extent, but I must admit I no longer expect it to do so to the extent of 1983. I am in the process of devising things and I expect to remain more east-based than I did....large impact on the forecast? Nope.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    I agree with you. I started off conservatively with this El Niño, until I could see the white of history's eyes, which I am viewing. My update-in-progress has it 3.0 to 3.2. The Euro is at like 3.5, which I am confident is wrong because that is essentially as high as the ONI, which isn't happening. Should maintain like a .4 deficit in relation to the ONI...like 2015.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    December forcing looks like 1997 to me, though it will be warmer this year due to the solar and stratosphere...January looks like 1983. The days of always being able to discern the placement of convective forcing by simply viewing where the max SST anomalies are within ENSO are gone...believe me, I blew up my outlook doing it in 2023.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Take a look at some of the modeling......convection is further west than you would think looking at the SSTs...my guess is that it's due to all of the warmth throughout the basin pulling it westward, as was the case in 2023....only that season was even further west and into the MC. Forcing is def. west of 1997 and 1982:
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    December looks pretty east-based to me. The Feb 1983 -NAO was the result of stratospheric reflection, which is as a byproduct of a STRONGER PV due to the westerly QBO....not sure I agree it was the result of a weaker PV tied to more Modoki like forcing. This season is absolutely a candidate for that wave one blocking like 1983.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    That would have been obvious to someone considering the solar and stratosphere implications. I bet a pattern like 1983 would have a more poleward/inland STJ given the more modest PDO.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I get that it's fluid, as is everything.....but it's been a consistent theme. Here is the graphic from a month ago: The graphics are tools, not substitutes for critical thinking. We have a developing record El Nino abutting a decade of cool ENSO residue throughout the N HEM....this resistance makes sense, and is not the product of some short-term perturbation. Although it is true that forcing and gradients are comparatively weak in the summer relative to the cold season, there is no disputing that summer 2026 has diverged from the intense El Niño composite, which validates the disconnect between the tropical and mid latitude AAM data. The theme of this summer has been ridging and much above normal temperatures throughout much of the CONUS. This is in stark contrast to the summer pattern preceding other intense El Niño events, which featured a prevailing trough and much cooler temps across much of the CONUS.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    WIZ GW
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think the solar cycle plays into that to some extent....descending solar approaching peak geomag is prime-time for super El Nino...it's not a coincidence. Now, add the unprecedented degree of OHC into the mix and it's a perfect storm for mother nature to make a max effort at heat redistribution. I know @Stormchaserchuck1has often mused that these higher-end El Nino deals shouldn't be as skewed towards +NAO as they are, theoretically speaking....well, it make sense given that they usually coincide with near peak geomag during descending solar. I get the sample size issue, but I think we need to make an effort to think beyond that as a community, and the solar angle makes sense...only super Nino that did not occur in this portion of the cycle was 1997.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think the relaxed flow down south will leave us prone to some slow movers, so hopefully we can time one or three with decent cold.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    For once, your "days and days" mantra is befitting.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Paging @Ginx snewx
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Seems like from about my latitude on southward is pretty locked in....even up to MHT looks good, Nice.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    It does have a tendency to overamplify, but the AI stuff seems relatively lock-step with it, so it probably has the right idea....I'm not paying close attention, though.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    One of these days, Boris will make a post without tagging Scott. ALL @CoastalWx ALL DAY... @CoastalWx, @CoastalWx, @CoastalWx!!!!!!!
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    I wish we could get this evolution during the winter.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'd love to get some weak residual +AAM for next winter....
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, El Nino is a beast in the tropics, but note the one significant pocket of -AAM on the globe happens to be right at our latitude, which make sense given the sensible disconnect with past major El Nino events. I appreciate the magnitude of the event, but just think it's a bit disingenuous to comment on how well coupled the El Nino is without mentioning that, since we all live within that latitudinal envelop.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Like you said, forget -NAO in the seasonal mean like guidance tries to do...no argument there....but I do think it lends support to the notion of some second half interludes of -NAO.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    All of the seasonals are doing it...UK, JMA and CANSIPS, too....I take it as obviously overdone, but support for some second half volatility.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's not like I take snowfall on seasonal guidance seriously.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I suspect the PDO will average pretty near neutral this season..we'll see, which could leave us prone to some interludes of cross polar flow, between which we nape.
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