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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    That graphic should read "with reduced subsidence into MC"...I'll have to correct that later. Tough catching everything with 4 kids under the age of 7
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    You can see how that has edged eastward a bit relative to the mean positioning from the past decade.... I expect that to the theme of the winter....better, but not quite there yet. Excerpt from my June update: What this implies is a season that will maintain some milder warm MC influence in the mean, especially given the degree to which intense El Niño events elevate global temperature, but with greater variability, which may very well appease east coast winter enthusiasts during the climatologically favored interval of the coming winter season. Indeed, it appears as though the wise early hedge is for winter 2026-2027 to have multiple personalities with increased volatility.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Completely expect MC forcing for much of December and maybe into some of January. Ironically enough, if @snowman19is right, and we are able to vanquish the MC for this season, then it probably means a somewhat colder first half.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I would gamble with that season again....it could have easily been like 1982 with near average snowfall if that February blizzard made it like 100 miles further north. Just accept that it isn't going to a cold season in the mean.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Gun-to-head, I think our area may end up colder than 2015-2016, even though it may be comparable or warmer on a national level.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    This sums up my feeling....the Pacific will be better than 2023, but we still have work to do.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/06/forecast-intense-el-nino-potential.html
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/06/forecast-intense-el-nino-potential.html
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Absolutely, but the opposition to the cold side is more boisterous, as the cold contingent has been beaten into submission by CC.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    My interpretation of the JMA and CANSIPS is that they are seeing something real, but are overemphasizing it. Regardless, it does bolster my confidence in a favorable period of Modoki like forcing during the second half. That said, I would agree with Snowman, and most, that we aren't getting a Modoki set up in the seasonal mean with an El Nino this strong.....I think that is what many register it as when those seasons are used as analogs and that should not be the case.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    BINGO.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think it may be NDJ.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think RONI ends up from like 1.7 to 2.0....just my early guess, but I'll have a better idea next month. ONI 2.2 TO 2.5??
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Definitely done better with that past few years.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I have a bias...it's human nature. If anything, I have overcompensated the past couple of years and it's probably at least in part why I didn't go as cold as my narrative implied last year when I clearly should have.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Stop interpreting this guidance in such absolute terms because it's just that .....GUIDANCE. No forecaster worth a damn should be ripping and reading it, but rather using it as a tool.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    If you actually look at the JMA model, it actually has the warmest pocket of water pretty near where the east-based composite has it, but it's extending the El Niño very far to the west so that it has more of a Modoki look. It's actually similar to 2023-2024 did, but the forcing is a bit east, so it's a Modoki El Niño forcing rather than MC. That to me is a bit harder to dismiss as "stock ENSO bias". Go and check out the June 2023 forecast and it looked different. the fact that the CANSIPS is doing the same thing adds to the intrigue. Now, do I think that the seasonal mean will look like that with an El Niño this strong? No, I don't...too much wamth too far east. But do I think that we can get a month to look like that in the back half of the season? You bet I do-
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's crazy how people are triggered by the mere mention of certain seasons as analogs....,most of us have been at this for like 20+ years, you would think at some point they would wrap their mind around how analogs are used. If you have noticed, any seasonal met worth a damn often uses an assortment of snowy, cold seasons AND warm seasons featuring a dearth of snowfall. Just because the forecasters deems a season to have enough value to warrant its' inclusion does NOT imply a replica season in its' entirety is being forecasted. The most glaring and detestable flaw I continue to see amongst weather circles is the inability to perceive any nuance, and constantly view everything as black and white. Social media isn't helping this issue, rather it's exacerbating it. The tweets that are engineered to draw attention to the 2009-2010 analog are the problem, but that clearly that isn't being done or implied here.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    The northeast doesn't need a cold winter for decent snowfall, but I agree that it won't be cold. 2010-2011 was actually one of the best seasons on record up here.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm not really using 1986-1987 per se, but like that overall progression......mild December prior to mid season shift colder.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Nice post, raindance. I'm not sold on a non-winter, either.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I have those, 1958-1959, 1968-1969 and 1977-1978 comprising my Modoki composite....but those are def. the most extreme members.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Makes sense since they aren't as powerful in general. It's semantics, anyway....I'm not trying to argue that winter is going to be cold because we have warmth in the western regions, but I do think that the risk of a winter closer to normal tempwise is heightened.....especially considering that the western warm pool may have edged eastward a bit.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Like I said, basin-wide is varied....could end up warmer than 1997 and I would not be surprised in the least.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    No idea.
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