40/70 Benchmark

Waste of bandwidth.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/12/festive-light-snowfall-likely-sunday.html

Festive Light Snowfall Likely Sunday Plowable Possible South & East Compromise Solution This Weekend On Wednesday, Eastern Mass Weather discussed subtle differences between the GFS and European suites, respectively, with the latter favoring a plowable snowfall for large portion of the region and the former merely flurries. The preference was for the European blend, which entailed a significant snowfall for most of the region; however, as is often the case, it appears as though a compromise will ultimately be in order. Synoptic Overview It appears as though a rather modest parcel of energy congealing over the prairies of Alberta, Canada later today and tonight will race east-southeastward and begin interacting with a lobe of the polar vortex (PV). This particular randevu will be a complex, and somewhat noncommittal one, at least initially. The two pockets of energy will initially flirt with one another in that they will reman in close enough proximity to hunter the amplification of the smaller system. However, any phasing will occur at a rather lethargic pace owed to the shallow amplitude of the western ridge, which will lack the depth to trigger a more aggressive and committed union. The end result will be a light snowfall, which a some moderate totals likely well to the south, where plowable amounts remain possible. Anticipated Storm Evolution Light snowfall will begin to break out after midnight Saturday night, during the predawn hours on Sunday from south-southwest to north-northeast. The "peak" of the storm will occur in the vicinity of dawn on Sunday, when low pressure will begin to slowly strengthen south of Long Island, and snowfall becomes more steady and even moderate at times the southern and southeastern third off the area. Snowfall will begin lighten up later in the morning and during the midday hour, but just as that happens, the energy from the polar vortex lobe to the west will begin to drop in to initiate phasing as the system exits. This will likely serve to protract light snow across especially the eastern half of the area through the afternoon, which will entail the potential for very light additional accumulations before ending during the early evening hours. Stay tuned for important updates on the holiday period to be issued early next week- FIRST & FINAL CALL

I hear ya. Hope you can make it for a bit. Family def. comes first.

Are you coming tomorrow?

Hold me....I yearn for safety-

I never said that I know some have...haven't looked too much yet.

Yea, just because on a larger scale the pattern is mild doesn't necessarily mean it translates to ubiquitous warmth at the surface....especially near the winter solstice.

Now it's just weed whackers and inverted troughs.

It's frustrating December hasn't produced a little with so much cold, but I'm not cancelling winter or anything.

I want the old Kev and John Henry back.....it was always heavy, heavy snow and free agents, now it's just depression and interest.

Unreal how it trends in whichever direction porks us...north last week , now south.

Any 12/12/92's???

The month isn't even half over. I was referring to the head-fake strat, cold start followed by a pattern shift mid-month.

Well, first of all, you don't know me...so really not sure how you are positioned to make such a declaration. Married with 4 young children and 2 jobs, I can assure you that isn't the case. But if this is your warped, deranged, and rather circuitous way of implying that I greatly value seeking out avenues of personal enrichment in other facets of life, then you would be correct.

I am incredibly pleased with how the season is progressing relative to my expectation....may end up with less snow than I suspected through December (of course), but pretty damn good overall.

Matches up with my early season MC mismatch analogs from my outlook well. I am very pleased so far...only nitpick is that I though it would be less -WPO and more -EPO. December 2017-January 2018: December 2024-January 2025:

This fits my progression for latter December into mid January perfectly...my only issue is I feel that -NAO/-AO in mid January will get pushed back, as I think that will be +TNH post reflection.

I'd jump at 1-3" at this point.

Decent shot I am in a corridor with least snow in New England after Sunday.

Just doing one map tomorrow.

It should be enough to satiate everyone at this point, as it's expanded a great deal.

I would feel hopeful for CT, RI and se MA, but I don't see how this ends up anything appreciable up here, at this point...then we can get back to our regularly scheduled program of me being 3 miles too far to the south.

These days, the blog ends up dropped into the toilet, after ma nature defecates on our collective grapes.