40/70 Benchmark

06z EPS definitely looks better poised than 00z to come up the coast. Slightly less ridging in the plains helps.

Arctic air certainly provides margin for error...the great equalizer.

I sense an aptitude deficit...you would think Cornell would have better prepared you.

I don't think March will be warm, but we'll see. I agree we are going to warm up beforehand, though.

Yea, goes both ways, too.....fast flow, MJO...I get it, but none of those are prohibitive in an ABSOLUTE sense, so we also could have more go right on the coast, too.

The Typhoon Tip of homosapiens?

It's been a good winter IMO. Normalish snowfall and well below normal temps. It's left plenty on the table, which is frustrating, but it's been nice overall.

Oh, yes...social media is a cesspool.

You sure they didn't mean anomalywise?

Who doesn't understand that the sun is getting higher? Jesus....

I also feel as though the condescending tone isn't very helpful if the goal is increased acknowledgement and understanding....that turns people right the fu(k off....regardless of how true it is. You're basically telling people I'm right, so if you disagree, you're either an idiot and/or have serious psychological issues...now hear me out- Like...alrighttttty then....

Well, I mean....we are all storm enthusiasts....I know for me, I understand, but it's not like I ignore guidance because I'm mindful of fast flow. Anomalies happen.....so while east coast blizzards may be more of an endangered species these days, they aren't yet extinct. I don't think remaining ever vigilant and hopeful despite an understanding of the faster flow and current tropical forcing tendencies is necessarily indicative of "an aptitude gap".

I think the majority understand it and are just sick of hearing it-

I did have 2018 in my February composite largely due to the strat, so I could see shorted-lived arm interval.

Same....especially in December. I thought December would be full of SWFEs.

It looks like the EURO is all N stream, while the s stream escapes waaaaaay OTS like a lot guidance right now. UK allows the S stream to come and phase with the N stream at the quiescently perfect time for NE. My guess is it ends up mainly N stream and another light to moderate ordeal. It almost seems like the inverse western CONUS ridging this time since the ridge is more in plains. The UK allows the s stream to come up bc it doesn't dig as much since the western ridge erodes faster. The Euro buries it because it has a bit more ridging.

I could see my area over to especially Amesbury breaking 3" up to maybe 4", but I think you have to go into NH for anything greater than 4".

You know me, so hope you didn't get your back up over those buns. I think you are a bit overzealous, but you know your stuff. I probably should have ticked 2-4" down into N Mass and may still update the map.

Winter is saved!

@WinterWolfThoughts? How does this fit the overall tenor of the season? Do we know?

That looks like some of those EURO runs.

I could see having gone 2-4"...but 4-6" is too much IMO.

Maybe Steve will be right and I undersold it....all weenies aside. That is a valid reason I didn't think about...time will tell.

Ride the chart! The frostiest ones you can find!!