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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    What I did tonight is just one part of what will be the full outlook...I also do a whole section on the extra tropical Pacific, which I haven't even touched yet. I also consider some sensible weather analogs from the summer across the country...this is just the first piece to the puzzle.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Obviously, I understand that if you reach through....but I'm not sure how to avoid that with an analog composite. Not to mention this isn't a winter forecast composite....it's a preliminary polar domain composite in July. Anyway, I did address this within the narrative. The correction to watch for in verification is higher heights over the southeast and an expansion of the Canadian ridge to the southeast, as lower heights in the vicinity of the southeastern CONUS has been a bias during this modern era. This also applies to the preliminary polar analog composite. All of that being said, if it is still possible to pop a strong GOA low in the seasonal mean, this El Niño will do it.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Reading quickly, cold AMO favors stronger PV, warm weaker. I have to brush up on that.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    I guess so, since it's North Atlantic....I'll probably add it to the polar section in the full outlook.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think AMO is directly tied to the polar domain, though.... Yea, I have gradually been expanding my purview since I started that blog in March 2015.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, it's tough to convey your thoughts with surgical precision in an analog composite, but I hedged heavily throughout the narrative that confidence was much higher in a +NAO than +AO....at one point, I calculated the DJFM mean of the composite and the AO was almost dead-on neutral...barely positive.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Funny how that NW-SE slot of warmth in my composite is the polar (no pun intended) opposite of last year, which had the cold swath there.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    The AMO is pretty much the only aspect I didn't really touch on, though I supposed that isn't specifically connected to the polar domain, so that is probably best left for the actual outlook....but I do have that in the back of my head for colder risks. I def feel the correction vector for me is colder. Didn't December 2018 have a mid Atlantic snowstorm? I remember it missed me, but I think it nailed VA.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Oh, I was speaking specifically of SSW....I understand that in general, the PV is weaker during El Niño.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Did I say La Niña? Must have been a typo..where about?
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Shit, I can't compete with that...should have done my homework-
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    My early look at the polar domain...pretty deep for a first hedge. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/07/preliminary-assessment-of-polar-domain.html Primary Polar Analogs: 1982-1983, 2015-2016 2026-2027 Polar Analog Composite:
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    My early look at the polar domain...pretty deep for a first hedge. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/07/preliminary-assessment-of-polar-domain.html Primary Polar Analogs: 1982-1983, 2015-2016 2026-2027 Polar Analog Composite:
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    @Stormchaserchuck1What did you say the SD of your formula is? .30? 70% of getting .30 within the outcome? @bluewaveDo you know where that post is that you made comparing past seasonal forecasts to reality? TIA.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Absolutely agreed with this....the warmth in 1.2 renders it a moot point in terms of the seasonal mean, however the warmth in the rest leave the door open for some volatility IMHO. Regardless, it will be warm overall.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    How is 2015 a poor analog? 2015: 15JUL2015 region 1.2 2.7 region 3 1.9 region 3.4. 1.4 region 4. 1.1 2026: 15JUL2026 region 1.2 3.6 region 3. 2.3 region 3.4. 2.1 region 4. 1.1 1997: 16JUL1997 region 1.2 3.8 region 3. 1.9 region 3.4. 1.4 region 4. 0.4 2026 is even stronger everywhere else, but region 4 is identical. Technically, this is more east-based than 2015 because there is simply more heat back east, and region 4 is the same, but 1997 was def. more east-based. Neither of them are perfect, but I prefer 2015 because in 1997 region 4 wasn't even in El Niño territory....but again, I think it's irrelevant. Region 4 is leveling off, as it was in 2015 at this time if you look at the data...dropped down from 1.1 to .7 by July 29th. I think you are unnecessarily splitting hairs...we can all agree there is too much warmth east for this to act like a Modoki. It's basin-wide that will act like and east-based in the mean bc of all of the warmth back east, but there will be more volatility than a strictly east-based event.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, very plausible.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think @raindancewxhad the right idea....it will fade to just either side of neutral for winter.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    That Andrej Flis guy from severe weenie EU is full of shit again....only valid piece of analysis on that post is the El Niño favoring SSW over La Niña and the EURO blocking signal. I go in depth on his selective pruning of information at the end of my blog...should post tomorrow night.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Man, the Euro has big-time NAO blocking in January....I don't agree with that, but tries to pull a 1966.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Positive. Here is the PNA progression from DJFM 2023-2024, a weaker El Niño within the heart of the Pacific cold phase. 1.21, 0.45, 0.09, 0.45 It's going to be more negative than that season? Good luck....take a look at all of the super El Niño events....waaaaay positive. Even 1991....only one that was neutralish was 1972, but it was still barely positive. Now, maybe the orientation of the PNA ridge will suck....but the reading won't come out negative for the DJFM mean.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't agree with a -PNA winter season.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, but that doesn't render them worthless...rather it's incumbent on a quality seasonal forecaster to apply the necessary modifcations.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Everything @snowman19is pointing out about the magnitude of this event is spot-on, which is why there is hope that the pattern over the N Hemisphere grows more redolent of warm ENSO as we approach boreal winter.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Absolutely....basically what I am intimating. I am not discounting that at all.....just pointing out we aren't there yet.
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