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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, I have always been with you on that. Interesting you note the weak signal nationally because some of the seasonal guidance has been hinting that December maybe colder than January and February.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Good question...I guess the year in the aggregate?
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I know that.....I mean the entire list of cold arctic years.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would not expect that this year....1997 was low, ascending solar with a strong easterly QBO...very odd timing for a super-El Nino. This year fits the bill with W QBO and descending solar. Good luck with early blocking. 1997 is a very poor polar analog...our chances will come later this year.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    2004 was a weak El Nino...any other warm ENSO years on that list?
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'd just assume worm-hole to Columbus Day weekend...or indigenous ass-parade, or whatever in the hell the libs call it these days. PS: It's Columbus Day.....he sailed the ocean blue-deal with it.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Short-lived.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I agree....they way I interpret that is some second half volatility. I don't see the season averaging -NAO. I think wave reflection is the path this year....like 1983. I don't think a reversal is in the cards. Guidance may try to flag one, and then back off.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Both are elite polar analogs.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I was just thinking that this is likely our way out of the 2023-redux hell.....the EPO and WPO were both dreadful, and we seem to have seen a bit of a decadal shift in that respect after a several year stretch that was pretty bad. Your NAO period is about done....must have largely neutralized...
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yep....no doubt. I don't dispute any of that...the neutralization of the PDO is a guess on my part.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Sneak Preview of the new EURO seasonal: 2023-2024
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    @Stormchaserchuck1What are your thoughts on this with respect to the potential influence of the lower PDO and record warm eastern flank of ENSO? residual cool ENSO influence in combination with the record OHC over the eastern half of the ENSO region is one key factor that may be cause for some deviation from that season with respect to both the predominate storm track, as well as the temperature pattern over the southern and eastern US.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    I still think it will eventually spike to near neutral.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I've seen him....but sorry, that makes absolutely no sense to me. All that will do in an El Nino is act to raise se heights, which makes it warmer and adds an element of destructive interference to opportunities for east coast cyclogenesis.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is the trap that I fell into going into the 2023-2024 season....all it means is competing forces, but there are no guarantees that the "forces" are good. I bombed that season, but haven't had a bad one since....learned a ton.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Funny you mention that because this is my early-front runner-plot for December: Note the location of the ridge relative to the position on the EURO seasonal:
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    +.06 today.... 2.44 event total.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    .71" rainfall on the day in Methuen, 1.06" Sunday, .58" Saturday, .03" Friday for a 4-day event total of 2.38"
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    A couple of guys online, Ryan Hall and Mark Margavage, seem to think the -PDO could have a colder influence in the east because the monster GOA low that triggers the huge Pac jet may not be. I don't think that makes sense....-PDO/El Niño is worse heights are higher in the se and any cool ENSO influence is like a Modoki La Niña constructively interfering with east-based El Niño, so the any Aleutian riding would likely not be poleward. Weenie-logic. I'm with Chris on that.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think we all would take anything over MC forcing, which is the worst.....another thing to think about is if this El Nino is strong enough to pull all of the forcing east, as Chris seems to imply, then that would eradicate any MC influence....which he has stated in the past has acted to accentuate the warmth in recent El Nino events relative to past events, so this season could end up a bit cooler due to that....lots to think about. A bit of MC influence could leak into central forcing, but not east.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    No doubt...the issue is whether it will be virtually all eastern Pacific, or some intervals of central Pacific influence will be at play.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't know how you can emphatically cite how much MC influence there was in 2023, then dismiss any influence of the central basin this season....yes, El Nino is stronger, but it's not omnipotent, as evidenced by the PDO resistance owed to the Japanese warm pool. Anyway, we'll see what happens....good chatting, as always.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    You mean 1.2? I just showed you the precip anomalies....they are higher in region 3.4 than in regions 3 and 1.2. I do agree that the forcing is sheared due to the warmth on the eastern flank of ENSO, but it's not as large of an area as the central node of warmth. Again, all I am arguing for is a nice stretch mid season when that central area takes hold....not a 2002-2003 or 2009-2010 like outcome.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Let me be clear....I agree with Chris that this season will be east-based as far as temp anomalies...warmth will be more prevalent; I'm just arguing that there will be some favorable windows during the 2nd half. I'm not arguing for a Modoki season or anything.
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