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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    We'll see what happens....don't get me wrong, the DJFM period will be warm in the mean...no two ways about that.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    That is if it even ends up being a -PDO winter. I have serious doubts about that one. I think it at least flips to weak positive I don't think that warmth east of Japan is going anywhere....this is mainly about February, anyway....I'm not debating an exceptionally warm first half of the winter.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think it's the -PDO in and of itself that is significant, but it's how we are getting there...this isn't our grandparent's EOF.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not at all what I said. Who declared victory in October? 1.2 is such a tiny area it isn't even possible to he convectively dominant. The most prolific convection is actually south of Hawaii...which is independent of what I think will go on in the higher latitudes.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    No, you're fine...nothing wrong with a healthy debate..no one is out of line. All I'm saying is I am growing quite confident that that current in conjunction with other factors is going to foster a pattern in the higher latitudes that is absolutely independent of the strongest El Nino in history...not 'trump' it. Obviously much more in depth in a few weeks for those who have the time to delve in.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm going to pose this question again...which is rhetorical for me because I know the answer...identify the bonafide El Niño events with no MC forcing and a very warm Kuroshio current east of Japan.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I ditched the MC idea over the summer...he misunderstood my post...in fact, the dearth of MC contribution is in integral part of my final thesis.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    It also extends further west...it's just more expansive and intense.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    No issue with that....December should be similar.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'v been saying that, but it either gets ignored, or someone will suggest that it's wrong.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Did you read my post? I said, "then eliminate the ones with MC contribution".
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right....about 150W....that is what was in the MC previously. I have a question for you guys..name me all of the El Niño events with a very warm Kuroshio current east of Japan like we have now....then, once you do that, do me a solid and eliminate the ones with ample MC contribution and let me know the ultimate list. I think the folks whacking it to subsurface erotica need to remember that absolutely nothing operates in a vacuum...not even the most intense El Niño in history.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    We don't know how it's going to work out....maybe it won't end up mattering and the eastern convection will dominate for a 1997 replica, but I think ignoring alternative outcomes is silly. You can't just pretend the dual forcing isn't there on modeling.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    2015 and especially 2023 had the warmth enhance by the MC convection and 1997 had one clean convective node the east. I don't feel like you are being entirely consistent in that you obsessed over the MC activity in previous seasons, but now you ignore that warm pool since it's in the central Pacific.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Literally no one said that......arguing for competing forces to emerge mid season and claiming something is "more important" are two different statements. It's not a matter of something else "trumping" the El Niño, but rather how other factors interact with it and the rest of the hemispheric landscape.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    That's because the El Niño forcing is the only game in town right now .....as the season goes along, it's going to get some competition from the west that 1998 didn't have once some of these gradients steepen. I never debated intervals of record warmth...but it's not going to be wall-to-wall. The first half will be very mild and that will not be negated...no way.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think you can totally discount the loss of MC forcing, though....so don't count your carbon footprints before they are made.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I ultimately deemed 1997 worthy of inclusion in the final QBO composite, but agree it's not one of the stronger ones.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    AGREE.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    No one is saying that...the question is how does the interaction between the strongest El Niño in history and the most powerful antecedent cold phase in history manifest across the hemisphere this winter.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    The season may look like 1997 in the mean, but it should be timed differently...you don't think December has a better shot at being milder and February colder than that season? You have been touting a warm December....1997 wasn't that warm.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    I changed my stance on that a bit...it's not a bad QBO analog....only real weak spot is solar.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    That guys has always put out crap...it was previously organic crap, now it's chemically treated with AI.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    To be fair, models have also be underestimating that warm pool east of Japan, which is the primary driver of the residual -PDO...so that goes both ways...can be said for both competing forces.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, we'll just have to see. I understand that....this is why it wouldn't be wise to hedge towards an outcome as severe as 1965, in addition to CC, of course.
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