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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Absolutely...QBO is somewhat different, but solar cycle is night-and-day.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    That's another thing....the "default to El Nino climo" works both ways.....often they verify too cold because of that, but if they can also miss key developments independent of ENSO that lead to more wintry periods.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    That's what happened last year, and although it recovered in the short-term thereafter, it predisposed the seasons to additional disruptions during mid winter.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    First of all, the Kuroshio current off of Japan was much cooler in 1997, and I think that combined with the cooler waters west of Hawaii is really going to strengthen that jet and promote ridging at the higher latitudes in the northern Pacific. Secondly, 2023-2024 didn't have anything approaching the magnitude of the Scandinavian-ural block progged for later this month, and had strong MC forcing. I understand you are about as conservative as it gets with respect to long range winter forecasting, which is often a prudent course of action, but it's also important to consider both sides.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree with this overall sentiment.....I have been pounding the idea that the high latitudes are going to be pretty interesting this season.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's curious that the seasonal models and Chuck's formula are flagging some -NAO because I agree the background is hostile.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    1983 and 2016 both had minor warmings.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I expect a minor warming (non-reversal) and wave-1 reflection event latter January into early Feb.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, right.......but even considering that logic, you would think that there would be some additional give relative to 2023, whereas that former regime even more deeply entrenched....I mean, El Nino is stronger...PDO is less negative and the warm pool is further east. This is why I believe there is more wiggle room for a window later in the season.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Maybe latter January...I think we all agree that the seasonal mean will be tough sledding, no pun intended lol
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I was just speaking of the image Chris posted.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Every intense EL Nino has had it...only that was fairly neutral was 1982.....but I think that +WPO is part of the reason why February maybe somewhat better.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Has to be mainly attributed to daily mins...just guessing....although certainly the past couple have been cold.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Seems as though the mid latitudes are just mired in this cool ENSO residue regardless of how pervasive El Nino grows in the tropics...and any assertion of El Nino in the mid latitudes just conspires with antecedent La Nina flavor to foster this even warmer, hybrid regime of sorts with the bifurcated Aleutian low...each node in an awful spot INVO the Bering Sea and SW CONUS, respectively.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I still think latter January into February would turn out better given less MC influence, but maybe a warmer earlier portion of the season biases the seasonal mean warmer. I don't know of anyone offering resistance to the notion of a very mild December and January in the mean, so any uncertainty is surrounding February.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looks like 2023-2024 to me.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    I wonder what @bluewavefeels about the fact that we haven't seen the big GOA low yet, and what that could mean if we don't...
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    The only thing I like as much or more than cold and snow is getting the forecast right, so there is nothing worse than when I go cold/snowy and winter sucks...last thing I want.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, the most likely outcome is it's just an exception to the October=winter N Pac pattern rule and it's just delayed.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Heh...I just ran that narrative through AI and needed to go cyber-stroke after reading the response. All I can say is we had better get that pig GOA low soon.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, October is usually telling for that....if we manage a cool ENSOish North Pacific, or hybrid type deal without MC tropical forcing...look out.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    This season isn't as easy as people are making it out to be....aside from it's safe to say it won't average cold. This is my 13th one of these seasonal deals and this one has a lot more conflicting data than most make it seem. Last year was just about the easiest one I have had.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Literally every polar indicator looks great, so I do think it's unreasonable to expect a favorable window....is guidance overdoing it? Probably-
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't want to give people the wrong idea....I'm not looking for an excuse to forecast 2002 or 2009...not happening at all. My whole argument is for a decent to very good 2-4 week stretch...somwething perhaps a bit more protracted than 2016. I agree with Adam that nothing is going to run the show over El Niño, however, I do think the Pacific currents and the higher latitudes are aligned to potentially provide a window of deviation from the straight super El Niño enema.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think that is extreme....probably between 1997 and 2015 anomalies as compared to 91-20 baseline.
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