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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Given the progression of the reflection event coupled with a weakening MJO wave, the GEFS make more sense to me mid month. Re-consolidating PV and developing PT regime.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    The larger test is mid month and onward.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    He actually went against the EURO in favor of the GFS last week.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    I swear he has an alarm on his Iphone that is triggered whenever MJO812 smiles.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    He has a varied approach...may also be a Pacific SST chart along with sentence or six about how the models embellish phase 8 of the MJO in this "new, warmer climate".
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm waiting for Bluewave to embed a tweet about how fast of a flight it was from Tokyo to San Francisco, and then a 1994-2015 minus 2016-2025 250mb zonal wind graphic
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think NOP probably will.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Congrats @ORH_wxman's mom on Winter Hill.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    My area's best Decembers are the SWFE patterns...a la 1970, 2007, 2008....big coastals this time of year usually produce a lot of mush on the CP.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    We are going to get some Arctic High regime (-NAO), but its just gone by mid month....AWT.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looks like December 6th it is.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think a bias requires an actual forecast. I would admit that you you use reverse psychology as a defense mechanism if I were you.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    If all else is equal, but it allows for other factors to overwhelm...just as weaker ENSO does. That shouldn't be prohibitive to an intensifying PV and the development of a PT.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    BC version has it entering the COD on Xmas eve.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    We didn't have MJO phase 8 in January of 1990. it was December 1989. https://www.bom.gov.au/clim_data/IDCKGEM000/rmm.74toRealtime.txt
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, I def. wouldn't love this in your area. Yea, difference should be enough to get me in the game, at least.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right....all I'm saying is it's a heavier press of the PV...I've always expected it to be a N stream dominated pattern that is favorable for NE, not so much your area into the mid atl.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Chris, if we are being honest with ourselves, that is a definitive trend towards a more concerted press of the PV.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Lots of December 2007 on that composite......my snowiest month of December on record.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    I had 4" December 2-3, 2007....right on cue.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm going to start diving in again after I emerge from my diabetic coma on Friday, but I'm not trying to imply it's going to be 1993-1994. There are going to be some mild stretches when the cold will get bottled up...no question.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    I've been on a the second week of December train, as well, but I won't be stunned to see a few inches that first week. Agree on the se ridge...the pattern is flawed, but we aren't looking for a blizzard, here.....it doesn't take perfection to snow at this latitude in December.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I've been there, man....wonderful thing about the weather is it's always there waiting in the other side.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Been preaching since last summer that se Canada will be cold this season, ignore the rest. All you need to know unless focused on a KU. There hasn't been a shred of doubt in my mind RE a cold se Canada.
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