40/70 Benchmark

Yea, this is what I was getting at....maybe it won't be pretty, but it will be a +PNA.

Yes, me, too....but there is no way the EURO will be too warm under that ridge...the pattern in this era of accelerated CC, the correction vector for seasonal guidance has been warmer underneath the ridges, which is why I was saying that...it's not some random, arbitrary guess. The model doesn't have much of a shot of busting cold anywhere nowadays, and if it does, it isn't going to under the ridge.

I will bet anyone $5,000 right now that DJFM will average +PNA....now, maybe guidance overdoes it, or the placement/orientation is less than ideal...different argument.

Completely agree, which is why my preliminary assessment of the extra tropical Pacific holds it near neutral.

One thing I am really starting to hone in on as we get closer to go-time is the split forcing that is prevalent until Feb, when the east-basin backs off a bit....but everything about this season screams "bipolar".

Like I told you before, it's not going to be too warm under the ridge, which will be over se Canada this year...it was over the SW US the past two seasons. Apples and oranges to compare it this year.

I would argue that it's a bit of a net positive, but nor argument that it's not anywhere approaching comensurate with the magnitude of El Niño.

It should.....the main argument against a better expression of El Nino is the CC enhanced MC regime destructively interfering, but I don't think anyone would argue that the S Hem isn't experiencing CC, as well.

Same people bitching about the two weeks of rain would be panicking about how we aren't seeing coastals start to show in the lead up to winter.

Looks a lot like it save for the deep se/FL.

Take...bring it.

I would say it's a tic worse than 1957, though due to the orientation of the GOA low, as it's more elongated towards the Bering sea, as opposed to poleward in the direction of AK in 1957. Would need to see monthlies to confirm, but given the expected retrogression of that low during the evolution of the season, that is likely a limiting factor with respect to periods of cross polar flow during the second half....so news flash, second half probably won't be as good as 1958...no $hit-

I know it's instinctive to look at the colors on those maps and feel compelled to projectile-vomit, but it's really not far off of a bast-case scenario given the hand we are dealt. I have no issue with this composite...we have a bit of breathing room in terms of latitude with respect to the pig-ridge to the north, and the GOA low isn't pressed up against the coast out west. We can't see the composite seasons, but that looks a great deal like 1957-1958 to me.

Looks like basin-wide La Nina next year...I'd take my chances with that in combination with an easterly QBO and a move away from geomag peak.

Nothing surprising there...gotta see what the monthly mean looks like. CFS should have a good idea in another 10 days or so.

About 10" below average...still would be tied for the 2nd most snow that I have had since 2017-2018. Take. That close to climo in a super El Nino likely includes a big fish.

We're in agreement on that.....could easily average negative.

Same thing up here....but hopefully we get Chuck's Xmas blizzard this year.

I think the warm Xmas puns a play off the warm December that is expected....I don't think anyone it honestly trying to forecast down to the day at 3 months out.

I don't think you are paying enough attention to antecedent conditions...of course the summer of 2015 was more redolent of El Niño....it came off of....an El Niño with a huge +PDO. You are also misunderstanding what I am saying when I compare to 2015...not just talking about the intensity of the GOA low, but also the degree of MC influence. There is probably a connection, but it's not 1:1. I doubt we see more MC influence than 2015.

I don't think the super El Nino in-and-of itself is an absolute death knell for December, but it is when combined with descending solar and +QBO.

Yes...this weekend is when I consider summer, and 80s over.

Yea, I used that chart in my last blog....likely explains the continuation of the warm pool east of Japan.

Basically, high AAM means that the hemisphere is more representative of warm ENSO, low AAM cool ENSO.

The most glaring commonality between the QBO composite and both the solar and intense El Niño composites is the pronounced ridging stretching from the northeastern CONUS and into central Canada, which obviously is a rather mild signal for the forecast area in the seasonal mean. However, it has been mentioned on numerous occasions that neither of these winter composites are entirely bereft of high latitude blocking or even shorts bursts of severe winter weather. This is evident in the bifurcation of the composite below. This is a signal that is emergent among some seasonal guidance. What is clear is that as El Niño begins to wane and perhaps shift somewhat to the west as the season evolves, the Gulf of Alaska low begins to retrograde, which allows the central Canadian-Northeastern CONUS ridge to lift up into the NAO domain. This mid-to-latter season progression is the crux of the volatility and Modoki-like episode(s) that have been referenced with the respect the overall characterization of the polar domain. The primary risk here for a transition to a significantly colder pattern is that the block is more oriented towards the Eastern portion of the NAO domain, which is especially evident in the more meager El Niño analogs that did not have the very cohesive Gulf of Alaska low that is synonymous with El Niño. The inference is that the development of the more Modoki like intervals during the second half of the season is contingent on the progression of the mid latitudes of the northern Hemisphere growing more redolent of traditional El Niño as boreal winter ensues, which should take place given the forecast for this warm ENSO event to reach an unprecedented magnitude as Mother Nature gives her best shot at the redistribution of that stagnant west Pacific warm pool