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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, you did. The person that MJO took that graphic from on Twitter is.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Sure, it can be argued that perhaps that PV will recover more slowly than some are implying, but I think interpreting that subtle weakening around Xmas as a major disruption is what is insane...especially on the heels of this current head-fake. December reversals are exceedingly rare, which is why reflection events are so common place in January and February.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    The implication is that it will strengthen relatively rapidly if we are to have a reflection event in January, as I believe that we will. I told everyone that this first one would not result in a reversal weeks ago, when social media was whipped into a PV orgy.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    I didn't say "strong" by Xmas, I said approaching climo....then strong into January. That map indicates another slight weakening just prior to Xmas...nothing major.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looks like a graphic pirated from that bafoon, Mark Margavage, who is trying to claim there will be a major SSW with a reversal around xmas. I can assure you, there will not.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Still scarred from last December.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea....I expected a non-reversal warming early in the season, and then another reflection event in mid January, followed up a major SSW complete with reversal in February.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Watch it be a SOP deal......I'd hang myself with a mistletoe before we even hit mid December.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Miller A rse
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    That is the progression I expect in January.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Where did you pull those graphics from?
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Absolutely this.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    The MJO is but one factor that can either constructively, or deconstructivity interfere with baseline forcing.....what you are implying is akin to saying that I jog 3x weekly, so I know I'm very healthy....come to find out, I also smoke 6 packs a week, inhale MacDonalds 3x daily and have casual unprotected sex with one-legged prostitutes on a nightly basis.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't care how much crap can be dug up from AI, the strat stuff is pretty useless.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Given the progression of the reflection event coupled with a weakening MJO wave, the GEFS make more sense to me mid month. Re-consolidating PV and developing PT regime.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    The larger test is mid month and onward.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    He actually went against the EURO in favor of the GFS last week.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I swear he has an alarm on his Iphone that is triggered whenever MJO812 smiles.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    He has a varied approach...may also be a Pacific SST chart along with sentence or six about how the models embellish phase 8 of the MJO in this "new, warmer climate".
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm waiting for Bluewave to embed a tweet about how fast of a flight it was from Tokyo to San Francisco, and then a 1994-2015 minus 2016-2025 250mb zonal wind graphic
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think NOP probably will.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Congrats @ORH_wxman's mom on Winter Hill.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    My area's best Decembers are the SWFE patterns...a la 1970, 2007, 2008....big coastals this time of year usually produce a lot of mush on the CP.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    We are going to get some Arctic High regime (-NAO), but its just gone by mid month....AWT.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looks like December 6th it is.
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