40/70 Benchmark

Yea, I have no clue why he is obsessing over the ONI...it's a La Nina, regardless.

Nice consensus emerging-

I agree completely with this...with the added caveat that I could see a northern stream KU that wouldn't do much for the mid atl.

Hey, I'm north of Boston and have become a winter voyeur myself

I think this season can still safely be lumped into the solar max bin.

Mild Autumn doesn't particularly concern me.

Yea, this is precisely what I thought of. I think they are in error this time, but we shall see. CFS and CANSIPS are relatively cold.

So essentially seasonals defaulting to the prevalent regime of the past decade.

I'm not sure what you are saying here....Models favor Pacific trough? I think they are wrong on that.

Looks to be an Alaskan Ridge season to me.

I suggest you guys read though some of these...especially the seasonal guys. https://simonleewx.com/2023/08/09/north-american-weather-regimes-a-summary-so-far/#:~:text=The regimes data are available on Zenodo.,with unusually warm conditions across North America I know Bluewave and some others already have. I'm going to go through these before I begin my seasonal work next month.

It's a possibility this year-

Yea, that is about is quickly as you will ever see it, so agreed.

Gotta hope for a drastic flip later in the autumn....2007 pulled it off.

Anomalies of that magnitude will never be adequately signaled in long term guidance....obviously given CC said anomalies are usually warm rather than cold these days.

I think we'll see a month that is decidedly positive.

I would gladly take a repeat of that winter minus the trough down to the Baja....would have been a good season with a more pedestrian RNA.

Not happening in this area.

I said a "warmer version of that season adjusted for climate change"....which means it can still be a valid analog.

Sorry, had to do a screenshot or this site drives me nuts over the size. CFS 2m temp anomaly forecast for JFM.

As do I, but again....don't expect that pervasive of an RNA.

Yea, I'm sure it would be warmer for Xmas.

Okay, I absolutely agree with this. The is in sync with my observation about how dialectical seasonal forecasting has become.

Solar max and QBO east seasons aren't exactly void of blocking potential, either. Research by Gray et al, 2004 elaborates on the complex relationship between the solar cycle and the QBO phase. Integrating Solar & QBO Research for a Comprehensive Polar Forecast The aforementioned Holton-Tan relationship, which dictates that an easterly QBO is correlated with both a greater incidence of, and an earlier development of SSW, becomes more complicated when considering the solar cycle. In some cases, when the QBO and solar cycle are in conflict, they can either over ride one another or even cancel each other out (Gray et al 2004). Here is a list of combinations and the theorized relationships for clarity. Solar min/W QBO: This is entirely consistent with the Holton-Tan relationship in that the westerly QBO essentially "wins". The PV is likely to be stronger than average until the final warming in spring. Solar max/W QBO: In this case, the Holton-Tan relationship is applicable early on in the season, as major warmings are unlikely. However, the Holton-Tan relationship reverses mid winter and the latter portion of the season from February onward is susceptible to warmings and major PV disruption. Winter 2024-2025 was a textbook example of this. Solar Min/E QBO: There are no inconsistencies here, as the entire season is more prone to polar vortex disruptions and SSW as per the Holton-Tan relationship. Solar Max/E QBO (2025-2026): The Holton-Tan relationship applies early on given that PV disruptions are likely in December, before the relationship reverses and they are less likely later in the season

What I mean is there is more than one avenue to a similar sensible weather outcome......ie, just because SST patterns are differetn doesn't necessarily preclude an analog seasons from ultimately being a valid analog in terms of sensible weather. All this proves is that 2013-2014 is not an ostenisbly viable N PAC analog, however, that does not necessarily mean that the coming season won't have some similarities. I think there is plenty of support for poleward ridging, regardless.