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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    https://forecastmaven.com/forecasts/easternmassweather/isaias-poses-imminent-threat-to-gulf-coast-by-early-saturday-am-as-first-hurrica/ Isaias First Call:
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Ah...didn't know about antecedent conditions...
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think that is implicit in the tone of the NHC public products, but yea...I mean, it won't even matter in terms of surge.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Lilly is about the most profound example that I can recall...went from about 145mph to 100mph upon LF near the TX/LA border in 2002.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's easy to grow complacent and fall victim to recency bias, and I know we have had some feast right up to the shore in the gulf of late, but I don't think this is Michael.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not to undermine hydro concerns, which will be plentiful near the shore, but hopefully progressive enough to limit freshwater flooding.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Strikes me as one of those N GOM collapse-deals, like Opal or Ivan....
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    What is the best link for the deep mind ensemble suite? Ugh...I didn't want to, as I'm about to jump into winter outlook mode, but the tropics call. Man, I'm sick-
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    I was thinking last night that the correction vector is usually east with a poleward moving tropical cyclones and an approaching front.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Thanks. Yea, this admin. has killed funding for data......it's why we lost N/CAR1 and the monthly QBO tabular data is no longer updated.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I found that, but not the super ensemble plot...his data seems to be in flux as he is in the process of moving to that site.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Anyone have latest links for Tomer Burg super ensemble and TCHP maps? Been away during the CONUS tropical respite over the past couple of years and some of my links seem to no longer be valid....Tomer seems like he is moving his stuff around. Found this one for TCHP, but don't love it. https://cwcgom.aoml.noaa.gov/cgom/OceanViewer/index_phod.html# This was my go-to, hasn't been updated for a couple of years. https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/goos/gliders/images/tchp_conditions_latest.png
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, should be more a hydro concern than a wind issue....strikes me as a system that will be weakening well before landfall.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    The forecast track and storm motion keeps the center over relatively deep heat content. Obviously, shallow SSTs remain quite high and untapped due to limited frontal progression and miniscule TC activity so far this season. The system will not be a slow mover, so we must depend on the timing of development and changes in atmospheric conditions: How fast does the TC intensify versus how fast favorable atmospheric conditions deteriorate to hostile? The key limiting factors up to landfall are increasing mid-level shear and potential dry air encroachment to limit or weaken landfall intensity. Looks like minimal cane landfall given just a cursory glance at things...if it looks a bit more compelling tomorrow I may write it up.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not really...I basically agreed. Lol
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I strongly disagree.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    I try to keep it objective, as we all should.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    October Euro seasonal gives me 46.3" of snowfall from November-April...same, exact total as 1997-1998.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    The only interesting weather on the coastal plane of Mass is winter weather....unless you want to count hurricanes, which have been absent since 1991.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    I understand why the snowfall tangent in a main ENSO thread can be frustrating for some, and am sorry for that, but the fact is that that a large percentage of weather circles share a common bond; snowfall is what first compelled us to crawl over to the window, and ultimately acted as the catalyst for that nascent interest in weather that has continued to flourish to the extent that it carries us through even our darkest hours today. It's the fountain of youth in that we get to relive that same, youthful and eternally hopeful jubilance that life would have otherwise long since stolen from us...it's that unique lived experience that binds us with the strongest of social fabric, and it's that unique lived experience that drives the autistic inertia that culminates in my drafting of the longest winter outlook known to man each fall , despite having two jobs and 4 children under the ago of 7. Hope that answers your question, there, spoony-fork.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    You have a subforum for your CC autism. I think the autism implication here is a restricted interest, and I really don't think that fits, dude.....I think I cover a great deal when I write about weather....including CC.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, it's generally viewed as one of the more compelling elements of weather, which is why it's such a point of focus amongst weather circles. I understand why someone who adds nothing else other than snowfall related banter may elicit some frustration from a few, but I really don't think I fall into that category.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    ENSO is tied to everything, which is why this thread encompasses just about everything....it's generally accepted and tacitly understood.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Same reason you talk about climate change in an El Nino thread.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Should lead to the the plateau of the weekly peak.
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