40/70 Benchmark

1972 screwed everyone in the mid atl and NE...so not counting that one, 2016 is the only intense El Niño that totally boned me.

I want the prospect of history to loom, and I only had that for a couple of days last year, which ended up going unfulfilled. Say what you want about the temps, but we should have plenty of drama next year....hell, even 2024 and 1997 I salvaged some incredible events.

TBH, I would prefer one 30"er to last season...I know I am probably in the minority on that, but only that latter January event was noteworthy in my neck of the woods....rest of the events were lame as fu(k....especially the blizzard that gave a guidance lap dance for a couple of days before taking off with the bouncer.

On average....but I don't have to tell you we just need to time one or two correctly to salvage a redeemable season.

I got a brief shower late day.... .03".

Hey, gotta pass the time during this extended stretch of boring weather.

RIP as it pertains to a cold seasons with consistent retention, but a mild map with extremely high precipitation in the mean leaves snowfall pretty wide-open...aside from probably being able to eliminate the prospects for a top 10 season north of NYC.

Everyone struggles from time to time time, but not everyone admits it...he is one,

Good advice I'm general, but the CANSIPS cold bias is fact. Having it do fairly well last year doesn't disprove that....no bias is absolute. This year is the type of season where would likely to too cold.

Good time for it...let that cold source build.

Cosgrove sure has an interesting take...heh. Seems to be going with a CANSIPS type outcome with massive AK/western Canadian and CONUS ridging. Big -EPO/PNA.

Yea, the VW effectively squashed the SO2 ink association with Tonga.

Thing is, just as it likely overdoing the NAO, it could also be overdoing the EPO is we don't pop as large of a GOA as it indicates....which is possible given the residual cool ENSO residue.

No bueno...this is what Kev was getting at....if you're wondering why the EURO is warm despite a big -NAO, this is why.

I think most guidance is too cold, but I expect a better season than 2023, if that makes sense....

The reason that the EURO is warm despite a big -NAO is that the North Pacific Oscillation is pretty deeply negative so there is a real fire house of PAC jet.

While I think that the NAO will average positive in the DJFM mean, I do not expect wall-to-wall +NAO, and there are some signs of some pretty significant blocking in the second half....even EURO has that, though it's probably overdone. Sept:

@mitchnickIf you look at the Pacific right now, then look at the CANSIPS.....the El Nino is very east-based, whereas the CANSIPS has been trending further east with each run, but is still central-based. It's also much too cool with the waters east of Japan. These inconsistencies coupled with the trend of guidance to underestimate the magnitude of ridges over the past decade plus should leave you very skeptical of the CANSIPS trending NORTHWARD with the lower heights, thus constricting the Canadian edge even further to the north.

No, it isn't because the EURO is more accurate in the Pacific THIS YEAR. If you want to say all seasonal guidance should be taken with a grain of salt, I agree....but CANSIPS requires a larger grain.

I think the AO will be negative.....EPO and NAO+ in the seasonal mean.

Great assessment.

That logic so absurd considering how poorly the CANSIPS is doing THIS YEAR in the Pacific.

Seems like this is similar to the 2018 eruption, which had a pretty trivial impact.

My bad, you're right. It seems like it was an eruption of moderate magnitude at best, though. I wouldn't anticipate major impacts. This is what I based that assumption on, which I should have pasted in addition to that chart for added context. How its Current Scale and Potential Rankings Compare Compared to its History: The current eruption has blasted an ash column 15 kilometers (50,000 feet) high into the atmosphere. This height mirrors the paroxysmal 2018 Anak Krakatau eruption, which ultimately released roughly 173,000 metric tons (173 kt) of \(SO_{2}\). If the 2026 eruption sustains this intensity, it could reach similar levels. [1, 2, 3]