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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I get that it's fluid, as is everything.....but it's been a consistent theme. Here is the graphic from a month ago: The graphics are tools, not substitutes for critical thinking. We have a developing record El Nino abutting a decade of cool ENSO residue throughout the N HEM....this resistance makes sense, and is not the product of some short-term perturbation. Although it is true that forcing and gradients are comparatively weak in the summer relative to the cold season, there is no disputing that summer 2026 has diverged from the intense El Niño composite, which validates the disconnect between the tropical and mid latitude AAM data. The theme of this summer has been ridging and much above normal temperatures throughout much of the CONUS. This is in stark contrast to the summer pattern preceding other intense El Niño events, which featured a prevailing trough and much cooler temps across much of the CONUS.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    WIZ GW
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think the solar cycle plays into that to some extent....descending solar approaching peak geomag is prime-time for super El Nino...it's not a coincidence. Now, add the unprecedented degree of OHC into the mix and it's a perfect storm for mother nature to make a max effort at heat redistribution. I know @Stormchaserchuck1has often mused that these higher-end El Nino deals shouldn't be as skewed towards +NAO as they are, theoretically speaking....well, it make sense given that they usually coincide with near peak geomag during descending solar. I get the sample size issue, but I think we need to make an effort to think beyond that as a community, and the solar angle makes sense...only super Nino that did not occur in this portion of the cycle was 1997.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think the relaxed flow down south will leave us prone to some slow movers, so hopefully we can time one or three with decent cold.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    For once, your "days and days" mantra is befitting.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Paging @Ginx snewx
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Seems like from about my latitude on southward is pretty locked in....even up to MHT looks good, Nice.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    It does have a tendency to overamplify, but the AI stuff seems relatively lock-step with it, so it probably has the right idea....I'm not paying close attention, though.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    One of these days, Boris will make a post without tagging Scott. ALL @CoastalWx ALL DAY... @CoastalWx, @CoastalWx, @CoastalWx!!!!!!!
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I wish we could get this evolution during the winter.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'd love to get some weak residual +AAM for next winter....
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, El Nino is a beast in the tropics, but note the one significant pocket of -AAM on the globe happens to be right at our latitude, which make sense given the sensible disconnect with past major El Nino events. I appreciate the magnitude of the event, but just think it's a bit disingenuous to comment on how well coupled the El Nino is without mentioning that, since we all live within that latitudinal envelop.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Like you said, forget -NAO in the seasonal mean like guidance tries to do...no argument there....but I do think it lends support to the notion of some second half interludes of -NAO.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    All of the seasonals are doing it...UK, JMA and CANSIPS, too....I take it as obviously overdone, but support for some second half volatility.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's not like I take snowfall on seasonal guidance seriously.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I suspect the PDO will average pretty near neutral this season..we'll see, which could leave us prone to some interludes of cross polar flow, between which we nape.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Typical manifestation of CC....it's often not readily apparent and rather insidious.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, it's clear something still isn't quite clicking.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's a pretty safe assumption that unless otherwise specified, comments in this thread pertain to the N HEM, since that's where we live. If you would like to discuss the S Hem, then the onus in on you to make that known. @SnoSki14originally commented on implications for N HEM winter, which is what prompted my reply.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Again...you want to deduce that it will couple in the mad latitudes of the N hem based on what is taking place in the s Hem, fine...different point. I agree with that to a large extent, but that doesn't change what is going on right now.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Trying to figure out when that region became the northern Hemisphere....
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    May very well get there, but we are talking about NOW...the fact is that El Nino is not very well coupled with the mid latitudes of the N HEM at this time.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    @LakePaste25Perhaps this image can help to reduce your confusion and add some clarity....this point is also illustrated by the struggle to develop an Aleutian low to this point.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I know, but I think I'd eventually have issues with it backing into Ginxy's dog kennel like that.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Took the words right out of my mouth.
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