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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    That is just an aside for me....certaintly not weighted much...regardless of the indication.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Webb?
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm sure this was next on snowman's list of Webb tweets to embed
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    There's a newer saying: What gets clicks, Bastardi will remember.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    +TNH.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't know about him, but that is Chris' explanation.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, I do consider that...or have the past year or two. I should have said the west warm pool in addition to ENSO...but what I meant is I don't obsess over finding SST meps that are replica matches around the hemisphere.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right, but probably a bit cooler.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    It seems like intensification was reinvigorated when it began moving a bit more readily, so upwelling may have slowed the rate a bit for a spell.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looks like Back River is the winner.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, the two aren't mutually exlusive.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    One of the "best" areas that it could have hit in terms of population....west jog did us a small solid.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, St Elizabeth's Parish will get wiped.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    System is a wonderful casestudy in how to navigate internal processess in the healthiest way possible. Wow.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Very important point...personally, I feel folks get too carried away with SST maps because although somewhat of a feedback can develop to a degree, they are not the primary mechanism driving the pattern and are more of a reflection of it. I don't focus on that at all, aside from ENSO.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, to be fair...really only one direction for them to go.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    I mentioned that to him a couple of weeks ago.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Oh, agree then. I forget you are coming from a northern mid atl perspective sometimes.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Higher up will have stronger winds and heavier rain, too.....ugh...safer from surge, but elevation will amplify the senisble storm impacts.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, you said mid winter....in December, sure....but mid season (ie Jan-Feb), I'm sure there would have been some mixing along the immediate coast...def. big issues on the coast, but did you see the band over SE MA?? That would have been a heavy pasting. There spots in se MA that had 6-7" of rain.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    I do think the WSW jog is a small break.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't know that they would benefit much....so peak winds would be maybe 140mph instead of 160mph....bit less damage over a tiny area, but a bit more damage over a larger area from a larger wind field and greater surge capacity. It would also stand to increase the rainshield in aerial coverage. I do agree we will see one, though.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    I disagree; the antecedent airmass was great. I'm not trying to steal anyone's CC...just saying, that last one would have been a big snow event in mid winter.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think in the last coastal we had did that.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think he was more just focusing on that due to the +TNH/strong easterly QBO aspect....but yea, I'm not using it beause it was +ENSO. It is about as good of a QBO analog as you can get.
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