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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Another possibility I am toying with is having more of a supply of cold readily available to the CONUS relative to the east-based intense Nino composite AND having the STJ displaced N & W relative to said composite...which could be great for us, especially across the interior.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm a bit torn on how the disconnect between the PDO and ENSO may go.....I see some indicate that it could force a colder outcome in the east, but that definitely didn't work out in 2023. I see how it could weaken the GOA low, thus reducing the proclivity for +EPO/strong Pac jet, but I also see that adding an element of destructive interference via elevated se heights....I tend to place greater emphasis on the latter, but perhaps we are especially prone to severe bouts of winter when said SE heights relative to expectation relax.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I was actually going to add a mid atl reference, too. haha The majority down there are great posters, but there are a select few that just make you want to make use of the idle snowblower and lie yourself down on the drive way.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right...and that wasn't directed at you.....I know you are well aware of the perils of dismissing potential over shorter-term intervals out of deference to a longer-term mean.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    All I ask is that people keep an open-mind....the need for preemptive defensive posturing is every bit as prominent on this board as any bias born of lust for the D-drip.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think that is the issue...usually the blame arrow points towards the party speaking in absolutes, which is the "no winter" crowd...if you see anyone supremely confident in a great winter, please point them out to me. On the other hand, I see plenty hell-bent on a non-season, which is silly even just considering the intensity of ENSO overlaid onto CC....that position inherently demonstrates a lack of understanding as to the complexity of the implications of CC. As an example....CC has tended to attenuate the influence of ENSO, which we are still seeing to an extent, and has increased intra-season variability. Additionally, the poles are warming faster, which leaves us prone to shorter-term bouts of extreme blocking patters, which always bares watching given the magnitude of the STJ that is anticipated. Obviously hand we are dealt is heavily weighted toward warmth IN THE MEAN, but in no way precludes all hell breaking lose over shorter intervals of time for the reasons discussed.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    He loves doing that to people so I couldn't resist.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    I highly doubt we see a +AO winter.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Show me on the doll where mother nature hurt you....
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's pre-emptive defensive posturing from all of the people who have been mortally wounded by mother nature.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Primshineweather.com?
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I feel like the trend on seasonal guidance is at least as, if not more important than the absolute data and CANSIPS keeps trending warmer and further south with that ridge...this is why February is now no longer above average precip for us, but if you look back at the 9/1 and especially 8/1 run, precip was way above average.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    CANSIPS is unquestionably too cold.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Trend of the CANSIPS is as I expected...its strengthening that ridge and edging it further southward. For instance, it's trying to do this for December. But I think we end up with something like this:
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't love the look of the CANSIPS in February....that looks rather suppressed at peak climo.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    4.65" on the month.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    That looks best in December and gets progressively worse.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    I hate the 1997 analog for everything but ENSO....2015 is good from a polar standpoint. This is the summer analog H5 composite I came up with.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Ohhhhh...that makes more sense...so 50% of between -.78 and +.32...that is more palatable for me, but I would still hedge higher.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    We have been dead-on past few years, but I may have to stray a bit this year lol
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Okay....so DJFM mean NAO of -.75...so 50% chance of having a mean DJFM NAO between -.25 and -1.25.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Geez...that is convincing...I hate to go against the descending solar/W QBO/multidecadal trend, but that makes it tough. What you mean by -.75 PER MONTH.....isn't -.75 the DJFM aggregate mean per the formula?
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I bet we see the PDO ascend to near neutral between now and the end of November.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I saw that post concerning October and viewed it as good news. I still remember when you schooled me on that as a weenie back in the fall of 2006....we had this big block in October and I got all excited, and you went on about how it meant +NAO later and how it would be an epically warm winter.....rest is history.
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