Jump to content

40/70 Benchmark

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    79,427

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    2016 looks okay for Feb....
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Going on strictly VP, nothing compares.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I can't find a match to this, though. 1997 is closest....
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    I can't find an analog that has forcing as expansive throughout the tropical Pacific during the month of December as this year is forecast.....1983 looks like a good match for January, as it begins to erode a bit on the eastern flank...the image below is reflective of VP on the color scheme, with the contour representing preci rate to really hone in on the best forcing.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    CC is a nutshell...yes, the days are obviously warming, but it's more pronounced at night.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Pretty sure that very cold run isn't happening.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, this is what I was getting at....maybe it won't be pretty, but it will be a +PNA.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, me, too....but there is no way the EURO will be too warm under that ridge...the pattern in this era of accelerated CC, the correction vector for seasonal guidance has been warmer underneath the ridges, which is why I was saying that...it's not some random, arbitrary guess. The model doesn't have much of a shot of busting cold anywhere nowadays, and if it does, it isn't going to under the ridge.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    I will bet anyone $5,000 right now that DJFM will average +PNA....now, maybe guidance overdoes it, or the placement/orientation is less than ideal...different argument.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Completely agree, which is why my preliminary assessment of the extra tropical Pacific holds it near neutral.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    One thing I am really starting to hone in on as we get closer to go-time is the split forcing that is prevalent until Feb, when the east-basin backs off a bit....but everything about this season screams "bipolar".
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Like I told you before, it's not going to be too warm under the ridge, which will be over se Canada this year...it was over the SW US the past two seasons. Apples and oranges to compare it this year.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would argue that it's a bit of a net positive, but nor argument that it's not anywhere approaching comensurate with the magnitude of El Niño.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    It should.....the main argument against a better expression of El Nino is the CC enhanced MC regime destructively interfering, but I don't think anyone would argue that the S Hem isn't experiencing CC, as well.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Same people bitching about the two weeks of rain would be panicking about how we aren't seeing coastals start to show in the lead up to winter.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looks a lot like it save for the deep se/FL.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Take...bring it.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would say it's a tic worse than 1957, though due to the orientation of the GOA low, as it's more elongated towards the Bering sea, as opposed to poleward in the direction of AK in 1957. Would need to see monthlies to confirm, but given the expected retrogression of that low during the evolution of the season, that is likely a limiting factor with respect to periods of cross polar flow during the second half....so news flash, second half probably won't be as good as 1958...no $hit-
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    I know it's instinctive to look at the colors on those maps and feel compelled to projectile-vomit, but it's really not far off of a bast-case scenario given the hand we are dealt. I have no issue with this composite...we have a bit of breathing room in terms of latitude with respect to the pig-ridge to the north, and the GOA low isn't pressed up against the coast out west. We can't see the composite seasons, but that looks a great deal like 1957-1958 to me.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looks like basin-wide La Nina next year...I'd take my chances with that in combination with an easterly QBO and a move away from geomag peak.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Nothing surprising there...gotta see what the monthly mean looks like. CFS should have a good idea in another 10 days or so.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    About 10" below average...still would be tied for the 2nd most snow that I have had since 2017-2018. Take. That close to climo in a super El Nino likely includes a big fish.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    We're in agreement on that.....could easily average negative.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Same thing up here....but hopefully we get Chuck's Xmas blizzard this year.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think the warm Xmas puns a play off the warm December that is expected....I don't think anyone it honestly trying to forecast down to the day at 3 months out.
×
×
  • Create New...