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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Probably best for his mental health...I applaud the resolve to actually do it.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    I still struggle with that, but have gotten better...it's just tough when you have a history of struggling to be receptive to alternative viewpoints and spend so much time and effort articulating your own thoughts....all of the investment, which is ostensibly a positive in that it's a vehicle for growth, tends to leave me more susceptible to undervaluing dissenting viewpoints. It's a balance between the understanding the that the incorporation of others' thoughts is ideal, and the instinct to be protective over an ideology that you have spent in an inordinately excessive amount of time and effort formulating. That is the essence of DBT in a nutshell...utilizing the ability to balance the extremes in life to identify and correct maladaptive thought and behavioral patterns to improve intrapersonal relationships. It's apparent on social media that many folks within weather circles could use a DBT course.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    He really does know his stuff and has valuable insights....but I think unfortunately many get distracted from a great deal of the value that he offers by the obvious emotional struggles.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Same. Last time I had it out with him a few weeks ago there was an OT thread started and I suggested dialectical behavioral therapy to him...I was serious, too....I really think he'd benefit from it, as it would his interpersonal relationships. I don't intend it as some big insult, either....I've participated in it as a clinical and a patient and it's something the majority of us could benefit from.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looks like he just peaced-out.........I remember raindance was vocal about how he couldn't figure out how delete his account last year, so Adam probably encountered the same issues. Hotel Amwx....you can check out anytime you'd like, but you just can't ever leave.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Traced back to everything I missed early Wednesday on his account Oh, man....looks like he went out in a blaze of infamy.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    What's up with @snowman19? He get banned?
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't know if you have a chance to view my polar post a couple of weeks ago, but this is a valid progression during the second half...it's just overdoing it, like Chuck said.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Absolutely....you seem to be on the same page that I am. It's taking a valid element of the coming winter and just amplifying it. Like I said a few posts ago....valid pattern for an interval during the second half, but we aren't going to see that in the seasonal mean.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    That cold in the high plains is NOT stock El Niño.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yup...which is why they are my two top polar analogs.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    The westerly QBO and the descending solar are two red flags for that kind of an outcome in the seasonal mean, neither of which were present in 2009....not to mention nearly 20 years of CC.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would be careful with buying into it full-stock....I feel like these Modoki like solutions are overdoing it in the seasonal mean because they are undergoing the magnitude of the warmer interludes early on. Rather, I interpret those solutions as validation for my conceptualization of how the second half will evolve.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    That quick warm up in early spring is another parallel to 2009-2010.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    1997 was easterly QBO/Low-ascending solar, so it isn't that surprising that the polar domain was more disturbed early on.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    That CFS plot looks like 2009-2010 IMO.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    That doesn't look like prohibitive warmth in SNE, either....like 2004-2005 warmth probably. ... +1-+3F. Give me that all day long if it comes with tons of moisture....I'll take that over last year in a heartbeat. 2004-2005 was slightly above average in terms of temps, but only 1995 and 2014 saw higher total seasonal snowfall IMBY.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Happy Nape Day!!! Solar max, exit stage right!!
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    4 consecutive days and counting of 90+.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Reasonable outcome, but I don't put much stock in the output, otherwise.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Sure, but ask yourself which season was better suited for that to actually occur than this one?
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    NAO and WPO were much more favorable....I feel like the WPO helped to limit major precipitation events on the east coast last year. I know it looks very negative in the seasonal composite, but it was a bootleg WPO and was actually positive in the mean.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Chris, 1995-1996 was a perfect storm of a flawless pattern and extraordinary luck.....I get what you are saying about the impact of CC of the size of ridges, but we could get an identical pattern to 1995-1996 100 times over and not come away with record snowfall the length of the east coast. That season was a unicorn. The pattern last year was not as favorable, as not only was the NAO severely negative in the mean owed to the easterly QBO/solar min combo, but the WPO was also strongly negative. The pattern was simply more favorable that year, even if the ridge sizes were identical. Your point is valid, but that isn't the only reason that we didn't get a repeat of 1995-1996.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, right under the trough...but that was essentially the only area on the globe where that happened, which is why it's so exceedingly rare at any given locale during modern times. That said, our area is due for a run of colder seasons relative to the west.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I agree with that. I have been touting a lot more variability throughout the second half....but -NAO in the seasonal mean is a very tall task.
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