40/70 Benchmark

Conclusions Concerning the Extra Tropical Pacific It will be the volatility of the northern Pacific that will dictate the mercurial nature of winter 2026-2027, and an unprecedentedly powerful El Niño will be the primary catalyst. The barrage of immense WWBs responsible for the extreme magnitude of El Niño will also ensure that winter is mild in the mean due to the initial eastern orientation of the warm ENSO event. Ironically enough, it is these same WWBs that will also preclude winter 2026-2027 from being as warm as many within weather circles who have been conditioned by climate change may think, as it will also act to reduce the heavy MC flavor that we have become so accustomed to in modern versions of El Niño. There are no "silver bullets" with respect to seasonal forecasting, but perhaps the closest notion is the ability to hone in on the most anomalous pattern driver and simply follow its' lead. In case it hasn't been mentioned, El Niño is about to set the record for just about every measurement used to assess its' intensity, and the 4.1C anomaly measured in region 1.2 the weeks of July 29th and August 5th are the greatest ever recorded within any ENSO region. Excuse this forecaster for not being surprised that the winter 2026-2027 Extra tropical Pacific composite just so happens to be a carbon copy of the ENSO region 1.2 correlation with the winter pattern. In closing, forecast symmetry for winter 2026-2027 continues to strengthen with he addition of the extra tropical Pacific to the consensus. Polar Analog Composite, Solar Analog Composite QBO Analog Composite, Extra Tropical Pacific Composite Intense El Niño Composite, Basin-Wide El Niño Composite:

Primary Polar Analogs: 1982-1983, 2015-2016 2026-2027 Polar Analog Composite: The mean DJFM AO value of the polar composite near neutral and barely positive, at .09, and the NAO is moderately positive at .49, with high latitude blocking heavily weighted towards February and March, all of which represent a reasonable preliminary seasonal forecast for winter 2026-2027.

I was thinking similar to 2015 as far as residual MC influence when I did my early polar and Pacific work this summer in an effort to start conservative and err on the side of caution, but I am starting to lean less than that now.

This makes sense, though, if you consider that the N hemisphere was not at all redolent of El Nino throughout the summer, likely due in large part to the antecedent state of the extra tropical Pacific. If that were to begin to change, this is what it would look like. I think October will be the month that will really be telling, which I know you have posted data to the same effect.

I think he needs to do a better job of emphasizing that a full reversal is less likely than a stretch and/or reflection event, as he completely neglects the solar and QBO aspects, which are pretty hostile. I could see something like the scenario he laid out from January 2016 (I used this season as a strong polar analog), but I don't think a full reversal is as likely as he seems to intimate.

Uh oh....Larry is aroused

You also have to consider potential hybrid patterns and what that may look like. I think it's safe to assume that there will be more of a traditional El Nino response than 2023 and even 2015.

Great stuff in here today.

Yea, major El Niño season's are very high stakes....the dice are loaded towards huge events, but opportunities for more quotidian, or pedestrian snowfalls are limited by a dearth of cold in the seasonal mean, so it can be tough to sniff climo snowfall if you whiff not the big dogs.

Well, I was referring to "favor" within a forecasting context....

Well, latter December is more palatable....but what I specifically meant is the latter November/early December type of deal we saw this past season....that is exceedingly rare. Once nearing the new year it's much more common. For instance, I count five prior to the ides of December between 1958 and 2012 in this table.

Just as an aside, SSW climo time frame isn't late autumn and early winter.... mid winter, okay....last season was very rare in that regard.

It's more +NAO....AO is pretty much a push, but I would hedge towards subtle negative given my composite. I think we will def. have some -NAO periods....I just don't think it will be a mean DJFM -NAO. I also don't expect a SSW....it will be triggered more by strat reflection, etc...

There is some validity to that, but it's more useful during cool ENSO. There probably is some statistical connection between very inactive hurricane seasons and poor subsequent winters due to super El Nino.

There will undoubtedly be less MC influence this season relative to 2016.

You don't think +EPO has been historically favored during super El Nino with a huge GOA low?? The seasonal mean will be +EPO, but I think we can have some fleeting periods of cross polar flow.

I think your thought process is intentionally linear here.....you know damn well how chaotic snowfall is and the bar that year is pretty damn low...I'll take the over.

Eh...I see what you're saying, but ENSO doesn't operate in a vacuum. I get the sample size limitation, but we also need to consider that 3/4 Super El Ninos have occurred during the descending portion of the solar cycle, which is pretty hostile towards sustained high latitude blocking. I don't think that connection between descending solar and super El Nino is a coincidence, either.

I feel like Allison would rather not find out....

Shocker.... He favors blocking every season if you go back and read through his stuff. He keeps touting super El Nino as being very disruptive to the PV, but neglects the fact that we are 0-4 in triggering a SSW during a super El Nino. He likes to cherry pick data to suit his agenda...what he doesn't mention is that the portion of the solar cycle (descending) that predisposes the Pacific basin to super El Nino is very hostile to the development of sustained high latitude blocking. He harped on the sea ice pattern over the summer as a factor in the argument for blocking this winter, but failed to mention that it only has predictive value during the easterly phase of the QBO. Needless to say, I'm about as much of a fan of his work as he is of objectivity. That said, they do make for interesting reads and he has some cool graphics.

Let me guess....he favors big time blocking.

No...2 years removed, approaching geomagnetic peak.

41.9 this AM.

This should be pretty accurate, so forecast maybe about right for the northeast and could be a hair warm south of about DC....but another trend we have seen is for the ridges to verify south of forecast, which places "too cool" on the able for the NE forecast, if that were to be the case.

It comes down to the position of the ridge, which should be over se Canada, so I doubt it will be too warm in the NE. Maaaaaaybe the se....... 23-24 it was over se Canada, so it was too cool anywhere near that ridge. Last year it was too cool in the SW, under the ridge.