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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    We had a -PDO decade like this...the 1950s...it was colder, but still sucked for snowfall. We didn't get "buried" in shit patterns before...they still sucked.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    There's luck involved in everything....chaos, whatever you want to call it. The pattern can be perfect and sometimes it just doesn't work out. We did have an El Nino like 2023-2024...it was 1972-1973...-PDO /strong Nino combo. It was just as awful in terms of snowfall, but not as warm.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I agree.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Again...agreed on the fast flow. Said that a few times....but if you are getting stuck in forcing patterns that destructively interfere with east coast amplification, you have two options: 1 The storms develop and amplify elsewhere....great leakes 2 You get a storm on the southeast coast in a cold pattern that can't amplify enough to clime the coast until it's over Atlantic, and becomes a Maritimes storm. I agree I don't think it's permanent...Mother Nature will find a way.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    YES..absolutely agreed,...we have had extended periods of unfavorable forcing. I'm not saying this is anything that hasn't happened before, but I just think the CC is enhancing it a bit this go around...just like it will enhance the snow the next time we get croacked. The west pac warmth is enhancing the MJO in the crap phases, an making it averse to the favorable phases.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not arguing this. Agreed.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    When the tropical forcing isn't favorable, it's like a scene out of the horror series "Final Destination" for east coast amplification....the atmosphere isn't going to flash a check engine light warning that hemispheric forcing regime is unfavorable...but what will happen is you will see phasing attempts retarded/sabotaged by defects like nipple lows, and chasing convection, which those who don't understand, or who wish to bury their head in the sand will attribute to "luck".
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't follow you... We have an arctic flow from Canada over the eastern half of the country in a +TNH pattern....we have a disturbance in the jet stream that pops a low on the southeast coast due to the regime being so suppressed....but if you have tropical forcing that destructively interferes with east coast amplification you tell me what you think is going to happen after that suppressed storm hits the se coast????
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, that is how forcing works, JD. What is favorable for one area isn't inimical to others.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right, but it is a factor....you can't be dialectical with this stuff.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    No, the flow is faster...that is real. I just don't buy that this why we aren't getting storms bc other areas are...that's why I think it's more a combo of forcing, -PDO and bad. luck.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, if you have a powerful +TNH pattern, storms are going to have to form to the south, but you don't see them phasing proficienty to get up the coast until they are over the Atlantic. This is why when you watch the news, there is nothing more than flurries in your forecast tomorrow.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right...that is my issue with the fast flow narrative.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    I agree with him that CC is a factor, but like I said, I think it's more an issue convective forcing destructively interfering with major east coast cyclogenesis...the storms are forming, just not near the BM. Either the lakes or Maritimes.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    If you notice, we have still yet to pull off a big coastal all-season long...the one big event was a half-assed low slamming into an arctic dome. It was a cheat code to a boring pattern.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Knew I shouldn't have touched it.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think I'm just deleting my first call map on this is shit-canning instead of doing a Final.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    4. The resident contrarian..which on this board is anti-cold and snow.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    You saw my forecast snow totals for the season, right? Just bc a particular analog has some value doesn't mean it's going to be a replica season.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think the lag will apply since we have antecedent blocking in this case. It's just going to protract it.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm not saying it will be awful....I just don't expect a blockbuster month.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I don't love snow prospects in February...actually like March better.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Shouldn't even be a lag with ample antecedent blocking...another consequence of me missing the current blocking is that we won't have to wait until March to feek the impact of the mid month SSW.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, to be fair....I've been too warm all season with respect to my Outlook last fall, despite nailing the pattern save for the late January -NAO.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Can we send a storm to the glue factory?
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