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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    One thing that hasn't snapped back as of yet is the increased speed of the jet sabotaging east coast storm cylogenesis....the January event was a cheat code for that because we had a great airmass slammed with a southwest flow aloft. Really only text book display of east coast cycolgen was the February blizzard that snipped my balls off.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    You know, it's funny...Will and I have reflected on how we went several winter seasons without being able to buy for a +pp over southeast Canada....times started changing about 18 months ago.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    It was odd prose, I guess I get it.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I'm not sure why that was lost on Edgar Allen Poe over there.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Let's station that there to add resistance to the STJ next winter...that would be neat-
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Correct, but it had a -WPO, which is why it was actually a decent season.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/05/development-of-major-el-nino-imminent.html
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/05/development-of-major-el-nino-imminent.html
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Can anyone link the RONI guidance?
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would take my chances with another 1997 versus 2023.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Without looking at anything, and in the absence of any context whatsoever, I will venture out on a limb and guess you are thinking warmer than forecast?
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    53/96 .14"
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I Just mean in the aggregate for the season. I haven't really dug in yet.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    He's not wishcasting if you read his posts, he expects competing MC forcing like 2023.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's going to be a torch.....but we had some shots back then that just didn't pan out. If things were timed differently, we could have availed of some -NAO periods...hell, my area pulled off a great event as it was just prior to xmas. Personally, I doubt it ends up as east-based as 1997...but if we don't cool the west Pacific off, then that would be even worse because it would mean MC competition as far as forcing. If we cool the west Pacific off and get a basin wide deal, then we have a shot at something.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Either way, we are getting a pig ridge in Canada...but we can either have a trough in the southeast, or a cool ENSO like se ridge. This why my 2023 outlook was such a dud...I didn't get that back then.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    A pure super El Nino would offer more hope for a wintry period than the warm/cool ENSO hybrid that we witnessed in 2023 and to a lesser extent, 2015....especially early in the season.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think this is the first time I have every genuinely hoped you were right.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I'm open to an alternate solution, but I think the default expectation should be continued attenuation of the ability of warm ENSO to modulate the north Pacific moving forward.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Tell me you're a weenie without telling me-
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think you have to assume another La Nino given the consistent RONI lag.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, CC is limiting the utility of traditional indexes....we need a RONI for the IOD. I bet the modern IOD readings are falsely inflated due to the rising SSTs, so you can't assume this will entirely eradicate the La Nina background.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is what I was driving at.....the very strong +IOD didn't prevent the La Nino in 2023, so how can we be confident that it will this year....
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