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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    For the most part, but I could see a good 3 week stretch between mid January and mid February we're that could be decent retention. 1983 was like that.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is what I mean...seasonal guidance isn't that different, regardless, but like I said, the EURO is probably most realistic.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think that matters.....I think you're being a bit too linear. The EURO has it a good handle on this and it has the forcing near 160W, too. Maybe it's wrong, but I don't see any reason to assume that is the case.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    My largest knock on 1957 is it occurred right near solar max, which is not as hostile to blocking as descending solar, but that it just one factor.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, it was discussed in the main ENSO thread that the JMA actually nailed the Aleutian ridge this summer, which is NOT stock El Nino....frankly, neither is the -NAO that is being flagged by all guidance, even the EURO...so they are seeing something beyond ENSO. I think it's valid, albeit overcooked. We aren't getting a DJFM mean -NAO, but it does speak to the volatility of the coming season.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    @GaWxI would say around 120W.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I usually go with orientation at peak as most representative of the winter season, so December should be pretty representative. I agree, CANSIPS is off.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think we will tap that cold in Siberia for a brief interval or two during the second half.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes....maybe a bit of 1965 and 1986, too....though the latter is a poor extra tropical Pacific match.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I know it will be warm....otherwise I'd be expecting well above average snowfall given the amount of percip. we should see. I think normal snowfall is about our ceiling this year if everything breaks right.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    The December output def. seems further off than the DJF mean, though, Nick.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    If you read on, I noted that. It's come into much better agreement, though.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Good point, I hadn't noticed that...it's actually like +4F.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't have an issue with the possibility of an awful winter, sure, but he used the word "never"....sorry, but that is an impossibility around here. Terd season, okay...but snowless? Nope-
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm more confident of a KU for the mid atl than I am here...the pressing of the Canadian ridge is a concern.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not happening at this latitude.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    No argument there, it's initialization of the Pacific, both tropical and mid latitudes, has left a great deal to be desired.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Probably at least in part why it's overcooking the Modoki theme.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    CANSIPS is def. underselling 1.2 and 3, though, so I see what you are saying. JAMSTEC probably is, too.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    John, CANSIPS is really only a hair west of the EURO with regard to the orientation of El Nino, at this point.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    JAMSTEC and CANSIPS essentially now shaking hands on the east-based orientation of El Nino this winter, but I do think the hemispheric evolution of the European guidance makes more sense. I think the Japs and Canadiens are overselling that second half flip in the seasonal mean.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    The JAMSTEC pulls of the unicorn scenario that I was discussing with @Typhoon Tip in that it's an east-based event that essentially acts as a Modoki due to the residual cool ENSO influence/Pacific basin warmth biasing the forcing west of where one would expect based on a traditional synthesis of the basin. Very similar to what happened in 2023 when it looked like a Modoki at the surface, but ended up heavily MC oriented....forcing pulled westward. Do I want to bet on that actually happening in the seasonal mean? About as much as I want to be locked in thread alone with @forkyfork, BUT it does confirm my early hedge to advise caution to those forecasting a season largely bereft of winter on the east coast once we get to about mid January and beyond. This season appears bipolar to me.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    What's interesting to me is that, like the CANSIPS, it's been correcting east with the El Nino, but it doesn't really make much of a difference in the forecast output. This is consistent with what I have been saying about how orientation isn't going to be a huge deal this season given the magnitude of the event at hand. While I think the JAMSTEC and CANSIPS are overdone, you don't need to convince me that forecasting a season largely devoid of winter weather on the east coast is utter folly. It's certainly not going to be wall-to-wall cold and snow...but I think we are essentially trading a great deal of MC influence for a canonical east-based first half, and quite frankly, that is a trade I want mother nature to render final approval of, yesterday.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, ignoring consensus trends is silly.....precision verification isn't the point.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    That is impressive....the magnitude of warmth under ridges is always underdone in these modern times, so no biggie....did about as well as can be expected.
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