40/70 Benchmark

@LibertyBellhas the record for most quotes in one response.

You are viewing a monthly mean, which is important considering any potential pattern change around that time...but I see some decent ridging out west.

No, the risk is not properly conveying an adequate sense of urgency concerning a landfalling hurricane. No one but we weather dorks cares if max sustained winds occur a mile off of the beaches, but the much larger deal is if significantly higher winds and surge than anticipated were to occur.

Catskills should do well.

Strong forecast. https://forecastmaven.com/forecasts/easternmassweather/hurricane-isaias-landfall-accurately-forecast/ Hurricane Isaias Landfall Accurately Forecast Timing Slightly too Slow The center of the rapidly degrading eye of Hurricane Isaias crossed the coast near Destin, FL with 105MPH maximum sustained winds at about 930PM EDT. This was precisely as forecast in the Final Call issued this afternoon in terms of landfall locale and intensity, but the timing was about 1.5 hours faster than 11PM EDT forecast. Although the landfall intensity needed to be adjusted upwards slightly in the Final Call issued earlier today, the Destin, FL locale was consistent since First Call on Wednesday. Final Grade: A

I wonder if I hit my max surge mark of 10'? Killed it on LF locale and intensity. ...should be a quick post-mortem.

Post less, sleep more

I think it will become more evenly distributed...I do agree that the EURO is overdoing the westward shift, as all guidance has been.

I was not, nor do I deny CC.

I'm talking 3 months from now.

Heh...DT jumping on the "Second half Modoki" train....that is an exaggeration, but as I have ben saying, it will erode from the east, which will allow for more conducive mid seasonal flip.

Matt is a helluva writer...does baseball and weather.

Final Call for Major Hurricane Isaias...no changes in track, but slightly stronger. Landfall near Destin, FL at 11PM tonight with maximum sustained winds of 105MPH and maximum storm surge of around 10' in the vicinity of Choctawhatchee Bay, FL. https://forecastmaven.com/forecasts/easternmassweather/final-call-for-dangerous-major-hurricane-isaias-approach-to-fl-panhandle/ Isaias Final Call:

This won't weaken as much as Lilly...that went from 145mph to 100mph at LF.

I still like Choctawhatchee Bay for max surge of 10'.

Good call. I was all over the eastern track, but I should have factored the implications of that more heavily into the intensity forecast, as more of an easterly component minimizes shear. I hit that hard in the Thursday and Thursday night forecast period from Wednesday, but neglected it later.

Yea, once it moves perpendicular to the shear, disruption to the circulation increases.

Sat image reminds me of Opal.

Yes, I though this window was going to close about 12 hrs early than it is. Nice from a met standpoint, not so nice for the Gulf coast.

@WxWatcher007It was such a tough call on whether to pull the trigger on major peak or not when I issued the first stab on Wednesday...I'm happy with the forecast overall, but looks like I may have underestimated my 110mph peak a bit. I thought conditions would be hostile by dawn today, so that is the difference. Also happy with the Thursday night hedge for best deepening window.

It's a tough call because like they said in the statement, a 6-hour delay in the onset of shear could mean 20mph in LF intensity....so they are making the right call hedging more intense. They have to balance the need to disseminate as precise a forecast as possible to the public with the need to convey a sense of urgency commensurate with the worst possible outcome that can be reasonably expected.

Like I said to you a few days ago, always hedge east when a poleward moving tropical entity is interacting with a mid latitude system....going with the bots was a tremendously easy call. That said, there are no absolutes, so I get the conflicting thoughts by some.

Recency bias.

Yes, this is what I was getting at....I understand that the baseline warming elevates that critical threshold for convection, but the warming across the eastern Pacific was lagging the west Pacific, so these recent potent El Nino events are part of a concerted effort to neutralize that...especially this latter, record surge. It's a battle, so the expression of warm ENSO has been masked to an extent, which is what @ensonerd1233e343was driving at. The antecedent warm west/cool east stratification and the record warm ENSO push are two competing forces, the latter attempting to restore a prior baseline in the midst of rapid GW. You're right...no one knows for sure how this will all work out, and I appreciate the different perspectives.