40/70 Benchmark

I think I went 19-29" for CPK.

Yea, we were on the same page. Glad it worked out..withstood the model waffles, when it looked meager on Friday, then beefed up last night...stayed the course.

1".

Not as it pertains to forecasting, which has an inherent element of subjectivity....unless you rip and read exclusively. There is also such an excess of data that it's easy to cherry pick.

1" here....about as expected.

@jbenedetThe beauty of blogspot, as archaic and unsophisticated as it may be, is that is provides a written account of my predications....I've largely nailed the progression of the month, and was actually far too WARM. I think I need a new pair of snow covered goggles....

In fact, the proverbial "Grinch Storm" is more likely than not. A Pacific trough should begin to evolve towards the end of the month in conjunction with a rather stout PV, as a mild pattern ensues to ring in 2026. The month of December will average near normal, anywhere from -1F to +1F, except near normal to +2F across the middle Atlantic.

Hopefully after harassing you the other day, @jbenedet can Sey-Mour reason for optimism moving forward.

I like to think of posters as I do model guidance...they all have biases, you just have to learn to accept that and elicit whatever value there is to glean from them. You aren't going to "fix" their biases....all it is going to do is foster underlying tension that will create distractions, and detract from the quality of the forum dialogue. Adam does seem like a smart guy....sure, his contributions are decidedly one-sided, but if you understand that, he does offer plenty of value.

I don't always see eye to eye with snowman, but he is reasonably pleasant for the most part. He can have an edge to him, though.

I'll just take your word for it and hit the hay.

GFS gives me 3.3"....really seems to hit the inverted trough hard over eastern areas at the expense of the CT RV.

Wow...3", that would narrowly beat the 12/2 deal.

Too bad me missed you, John. Maybe next time.

I bet some of us get most of our accumulations from the inverted nonsense later on....I think that may happen here.

Wow, 18z EURO with 2.2" here...where do I sign??

Fine with me, as I'm missing tomorrow, anyway.

-5 anomaly with 40* being climo.

That's like mid-upper 30's here.

I have noticed those national guys like to ignore the NE...just like when we have an arctic plunge into the center of the country that only produces pedestrian cold here, as we have so many times over the past decade.....all we hear about is how epic the airmass is. Inverse here.

My, how we've missed you-

Waste of bandwidth.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/12/festive-light-snowfall-likely-sunday.html

Festive Light Snowfall Likely Sunday Plowable Possible South & East Compromise Solution This Weekend On Wednesday, Eastern Mass Weather discussed subtle differences between the GFS and European suites, respectively, with the latter favoring a plowable snowfall for large portion of the region and the former merely flurries. The preference was for the European blend, which entailed a significant snowfall for most of the region; however, as is often the case, it appears as though a compromise will ultimately be in order. Synoptic Overview It appears as though a rather modest parcel of energy congealing over the prairies of Alberta, Canada later today and tonight will race east-southeastward and begin interacting with a lobe of the polar vortex (PV). This particular randevu will be a complex, and somewhat noncommittal one, at least initially. The two pockets of energy will initially flirt with one another in that they will reman in close enough proximity to hunter the amplification of the smaller system. However, any phasing will occur at a rather lethargic pace owed to the shallow amplitude of the western ridge, which will lack the depth to trigger a more aggressive and committed union. The end result will be a light snowfall, which a some moderate totals likely well to the south, where plowable amounts remain possible. Anticipated Storm Evolution Light snowfall will begin to break out after midnight Saturday night, during the predawn hours on Sunday from south-southwest to north-northeast. The "peak" of the storm will occur in the vicinity of dawn on Sunday, when low pressure will begin to slowly strengthen south of Long Island, and snowfall becomes more steady and even moderate at times the southern and southeastern third off the area. Snowfall will begin lighten up later in the morning and during the midday hour, but just as that happens, the energy from the polar vortex lobe to the west will begin to drop in to initiate phasing as the system exits. This will likely serve to protract light snow across especially the eastern half of the area through the afternoon, which will entail the potential for very light additional accumulations before ending during the early evening hours. Stay tuned for important updates on the holiday period to be issued early next week- FIRST & FINAL CALL

I hear ya. Hope you can make it for a bit. Family def. comes first.