40/70 Benchmark

I had a little black ice on the driveway, but roads were fine here.....finally melted the ice off of my stairs from last week.

Yea, I def. see the rationale, but my issue with this is that, as you intimated, it's based solely on ENSO...which you have opined is becoming less of a forcing mechanism, anyway (not to mention it's meager), but beside the point. My concern with that kind of perfunctory (not meant in a derogatory-dickish way) is that it neglects the potential implications of the stratosphere, which is primed to have an influence this season given the extreme easterly QBO in concert with the high solar output and background cool ENSO. The implication of this, per my deep dive, is that we are especially prone to both episodic +TNH intervals born of stratospheric reflection events, which render said polar field abandonment moot, and a subsequent major SSW that actually will result in a full reversal.

I vehemently disagree.

It's not like I was biased towards NE cold and snow, either...I think the work reflects that. Thus far I have been too warm, and by a significant margin. Last year I was also too warm.

Lucky SOB-

I will tell you right now, there is no way my seasonal sequence will work out entirely...I understand that going in. A seasonal forecast as detailed as mine is never going to be as nuanced as the actual pattern that evolves....it's akin to expecting a weekly product to nail the deformation zone for a storm at day 16; it just isn't practical. I hope to get the general idea...while I said turning warmer in the 2nd half of December, and then colder again mid January, there is no way it will work out entirely like that. I'm sure there the timing will be off, and there will be some colder periods interspersed during the advertised warmth.

@qg_omegaReally not sure what the point of trolling my hedge is? If I end up wrong, I'll admit it, as I always do. I think if we did a poll, the board would overwhelmingly reflect that. All kidding aside, everyone who takes the time to articulate their thoughts into a cohesive forecast is going to get it wrong at times, otherwise no one would ever learn anything. It seems patently silly to mock said efforts on a forum that is designed to be an outlet for such endeavors.

I think he is referring to anomalies.....obviously the west PAC will always have more convection and VP as a baseline because it's warmer (Walker Cycle)...this is why there is such a high volume of super typhoons out there.

I can't wait for the cold to relax and it warms up, as I think that will offer up more snow...at least for my area.

I had it beginning to shift around the middle of the month, with January starting milder and then shifting cold.

I never concern myself with DC, so it's not relevent.

mid level magic probably from Kevin to ORH over to Boston.

I think this is reasonable, but could see higher.

For ya mutha

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/12/plowable-snowfall-still-favored-sunday.html First Call probably tomorrow or Friday, barring an unforeseen "poof".

Plowable Snowfall Still Favored Sunday Devin In Details As Considerable Model Uncertainty Remains Rainfall Likely Tonight Regardless of the ample supply of cold throughout the first third of the month of December, the storm system approaching the region today still looks to fall as primarily light rainfall for the majority of the region. The rising temperatures throughout the overnight period last night were the first indication of this outcome, as an innocuous looking wave over the Ohio River Valley manages to phase in enough with a lobe of the PV to amplify and track through southern Canada, which has already turned the winds out of the southwest across much of the northeastern CONUS. Although some light snowfall is possible across the higher terrain of the Berkshires, this particular system will prove more met than white. This is a very easy forecast since the system is traveling so far to the north, however, when that is not the case, modeling will be very sensitive to any subtle change with respect to phasing attempts is an extremely fast flow. This will be on full display with regard t the weekend forecast. Complicated Weekend Scenario Unfolding As of this morning, there were two more distinct parcels of energy over the arctic that are modeled to be on a collision course over the Canadian prairies late this week. The system over the Arctic Ocean, and the one entering Alaska are forecast to rapidly funnel SSE in the flow between the PV and west coast ridge, before ultimately coalescing in the vicinity of Alberta, Canada on overnight on Friday. The system will then careen around the southern side of the PV on Saturday, at which point guidance diverges concerning the precise nature of this crucial interaction. The European cluster of ensembles favors a scenario in which there remains enough space between the PV lobe and the developing system to allow to amplify sufficiently as to eventually impact much of the region with a plowable snowfall on Sunday. The GFS camp, on the other hand, keeps the PV in close enough proximity to greatly impede the development of the wave to the south by largely shearing it apart, which results in little if any snowfall across the area. The version of the EURO guidance that is derived from Artificial intelligence (AI) is even more aggressive than the traditional model, and implies a warning event of 6" or greater throughout at least a portion of the area. The Eastern Mass Weather hedge remains in favor of a plowable snowfall for at least a portion of the forecast area on Sunday given previously discussed analog support and teleconnector convergence, in addition to robust AI support in addition to a death of high latitude blocking at present to pin the PV slightly further to the south. First Call is likely either Thursday or Friday.

Nope, and that's how we learn...in that respect, AI and actual intelligence are alike. Thank you.

I said that to some of the guys in a group text last night....the second half of the month will be better for snow, even though it will be milder.

I think it's pretty clear the pattern is going to break.

Yea, if the nascent mid level lows are far enough south, sure....just going by the position on those ensemble products neat the BM. I would have to assume the mid level lows would be far enough north to impact most of the area.

I think it depends on whether it develops at all in the mid levels prior to passing by...if not, then probably overdone.

I could see a low-end warning if everything broke right.

It's not ideal, but correctable with ease at this range, especially given the sensitivity to subtle changes that we are seeing in guidance as a result of the phase on the fly.

EURO and EURO AI focus on SE areas, GEFS mostly OTS, and GEPS develops a bit too late, but decent SOP.

Buy. Been touting that for a month.