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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. Still mainly above average for the most part.
  2. I expect a lot of more Strat help late this year than 2011.
  3. There is my +PNA. Looks like the blocking reprieve won't last as long as I thought since the Strat and troposphere are remaining uncoupled, but I did get the strengthening PV right.
  4. I think I'm too low up here.. gonna need a bigger boat
  5. Oh wow...my dad is from Woburn..I grew up in Wilmington. Ton of Spinazolas in Woburn... Yea, known Scott for about 16 years from this place...great met.
  6. Great stuff...appreciate your posts...just made the connection lol. I'm Ray from that group.
  7. Oh haha you are Boris from weather enthusiasts on Facebook lol
  8. Folks laughed at my map, but let's see how this play out.
  9. H7 warm front stagnates out there as it runs into resistance from the confluence and the system decays.
  10. Final https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/12/final-call-for-saturday-snows.html
  11. Final Call For Saturday Snows More Significant Impact Region-wide Synoptic Overview There have been subtle changes from First Call issued on Monday that will have fairly significant impacts across the region. The general evolution remains the same, as the northern steam disturbance approaching from the west will encounter confluence over northern New England and weaken while being deflected to the southeast. However, it now appears that said confluence will be slightly weaker and further to the northeast, meaning that the approaching system makes it slightly further north and remains coherent enough for sizable impacts into the region. Note that by 4pm this afternoon, the system has closed over the eastern Great Lakes. After midnight, the mid level low makes it into New York State, at which point it begins to encounter the confluence from the block to the north east, and in response weakens and veers more to the southeast. Expected Storm Evolution Snowfall should begin to break out across southwestern Connecticut this evening. Overspreading central Massachusetts by midnight. And the balance of southern New England by shortly thereafter, although it may struggle to reach the ground initially due to the antecedent dry air. During the predawn hours, a heavy burst of snow moving northeast in association with the 700mb warm front will begin to slow over Connecticut river valley of Massachusetts into the far northeastern corner of Connecticut, as the warm push aloft meets resistance from the confluence stationed over Maine. This will prolong a few hour stretch of up to 1-2"/hr snowfall rates in this area. It is at this point that the system will begin to weaken, and the dynamics will before more diffuse as the storm progresses eastward. This is evidenced by the disparity in the forecast soundings across the state of Massachusetts, as the profile is much more conducive for a period of heavy snow at Westfield, for instance, than it is at Lawrence. Westfield, MA Lawrence, MA It is around mid morning that the focus of the storm will shift to the north and south shore of the Boston area, as ocean effect and enhanced snow becomes the predominate low level forcing mechanism as the mid level dynamics decay. Snowfall will taper off across the region of the region during midday hours. and ultimately during the afternoon across the north and south shore. FINAL CALL:
  12. You can see that on the soundings...cross hair sig out in Westfield, but it get smore diffuse further east.
  13. Well, it's not coming up from the south and running west of us....it's a northern stream storm that rides east through the lakes, closes off, and then hits the confluence, turns se and begins to fall apart.
  14. This is why some of the same SWFE rules in terms of limitations are applicable here...we get there a bit differently, but this is essentially a SWFE in which the cold ultimately winds....usually in those the warmth does in a relative sense.
  15. Right's...it's attenuating....closing lows over NYS and antecedent dry air doesn't scream S+ to me.
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