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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Notice 1997-1998 didn't have a big +NAO? It occurred during ascending solar, not too far removed from solar min....not to mention -QBO.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    @Stormchaserchuck1, I think I know why the connection between intense El Niño and +NAO seems overstated....the causation for the +NAO during intense El Niño is likely more due to higher-end El Niño being favored during descending solar/peak geomagnetic energy, rather then the intense El Nino itself. Descending solar/high geomagnetic is the actual "smoking-gun" behind the +NAO causation, however, intense El Niño with all of that warmth leaking east does inhibit -NAO, I'm sure. The combo together is lethal if you're hoping for big blocking. https://www.issibern.ch/teams/interplanetarydisturb/wp-content/uploads/sites/14/2015/01/Asikainen_03_2014.pdf
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Highly doubt that persists through winter.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Just brutal; the world stopped with the discontinuation of NCAR.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I know about that...but it doesn't have the monthly tabulations like this site (50mb): https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data And this one (30mb): https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data They stopped updating in February.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    And of course we would have a season like that right after they stop calculating it monthly.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    This isn't going to be cold in the mean like 2002.....too much warmth too far east for that. I think we can get some brutal cold, but it will be fleeting, like 2016 and 1983.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, I was about to mention that....1997-1998 had that on display during -NAO, too. -NAO buys the coast a shot with marginal airmass and favorable storm track. Pacific def. won't be as favorable as 2009, albeit better than 2023.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    BTW, -AO/-NAO doesn't have to mean cold, either...and this is just the type of season where I could see that happening. If Canada is wiped out, all an NAO block will do is trap stale, maritime air underneath it. We will need time to build the source region during any jet retractions.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is the one that I used but your's is probably better. Walker Cycle Serves to Budget Solar Energy Focused Near the Equator by upwelling Cooler Subsurface Water and Distributing it Westward via Easterly trade Winds
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, can only work with what we have. I don't care to get into pre 1950 analogs.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Oh, yea...no doubt.....it's very clear in my break down of Hadley Cell placement per Modiki Index.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I mean in general....no relevance to this season, though ...although I don't think it's as clear cut as many do for other reasons.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Is this the Walker Cycle?
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is somewhat anecdotal, but the fact that 1997-1998 was extremely east-based and wasn't a severely +NAO supports your postulation.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I just went through the numbers on the intense composite, which is mostly east-based....it's like .67 NAO for DJFM...nothing obscene. AO is is just about neutral.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    This year is kind of the inverse of that, which is why I think we have a shot for something decent....there is a TON of warmth, but there is more to the west than 1997 and 1982....however, the warm pool is def. getting further east than 2023, so I feel like we will get some periods of Modoki forcing with less MC competition.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I figured there was something missed. Yes. It's not JUST about strength.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Theoretically speaking, if we venture to the land of make believe, and pull off a 3.2 ONI that is just about void of warmth in regions 1.2 and 3, then sure.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    You aren't getting what I'm saying. We aren't going to get an event that powerful that doesn't leak into the east. Find an example.....I'll give you a lifetime...go. 2009 is the closest, but not to that magnitude.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    It absolutely does in a sense because good luck keeping the warmth out of the eastern ENSO region in an event of this magnitude.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, but there is more warmer water further west than that year.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    If anything, -PDO would make it warmer and drier....that isn't a driver of cold in the NE.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    CANSIPS and JMA have a Modoki look, which I don't recall seeing on guidance in 2023. I don't think there is any way in hell we get that in the seasonal mean given the magnitude of this event, but I also wouldn't ignore it altogether. We should see some variability.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I remember I pointed this out last spring and got roasted for it.
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