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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, it's all connected...sure, the RONI only measures the oceans, but I think the warming oceans are somewhat connected to the more pronounced 500MB ridges....I think there is an element of feedback at play. Bottom line is there is more heat, which is being reflected in the ocean and the atmosphere, but it just so happens that the RONI only measures the former...so technically, yes...it certainly goes beyond the RONI.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    It is. The Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI.v2) is a comprehensive climate index used to measure the intensity and phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It improves upon single-variable indices by combining five oceanic and atmospheric variables across the tropical Pacific: sea surface temperatures, sea-level pressure, surface winds, and outgoing longwave radiation
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, air pressure is an element of the MEI, I believe.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is why I feel we want a high RONI during an El Nino event....the RONI represents a spectrum, or continuum if you will, of the ability of warm ENSO to modulate the north Pacific versus the baseline trend that is more reflective of CC, which is cool ENSO like. I think folks obfuscate this with the MEI, which simply measures the intensity of the warm ENSO coupling. RONI is not so much about the intensity of the coupling, but the war waged between ENSO and competing hemispheric forces.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not that it is going to flip on a dime, but the last -AMO cycle coincided with the negative portion of the multidecadal NAO cycle in the 60s. I think we are more likely to see a modified version of that (CC) around and after the solar min early next decade. This season should be decidedly positive.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think Boris would like that very much.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    February 1969 in May, yay.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Perhaps you and @CoastalWxcan rent a cabin together in the wilderness of Maine?
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Okay, I stand corrected. Colder than I recalled.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    It wasn't supposed to be as warm as it was, which is the point. It was supposed to be mild, though. Yea, I def. fell into that trap to a degree.......it's tough to wipe the slate clean an not try to overcompensate for the previous effort's errors. Hey, least we know I don't have unilateral cold bias now. haha I def. thought the polar domain would prevent a 1972 redux that season, but it didn't work out. The other mistake I made was misinterpreting the competing cool ENSO influence as some sort of Modoki influence.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, what could go wrong, went wrong that season.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I was thinking the same thing. That was supposed to be a mild winter that ended up even milder than expected.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I love how you mock those on Social Media who dare to suggest that the ONI may not top 2.5, and then quote a dude suggesting that his incorrect interpretation of the RONI forecast could trigger "dystopian global climate change impacts over the next 1.5 years". 'Cmon, Adam...you're better than that.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Take.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Doesn't seem all that wet next weekend per the P&C...
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    No it wasn't. It was clear as day that January would be +PNA at several months lead time if you knew what to look for.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    I wonder if the eastern Pacific playing a bit of catch up has helped the northern Pacific get more favorable over the last couple of years, which helps more with respect to cold than snow, as we still have the issue of the stronger jet to contend with. We need to find a way to cool the west Pacific to mitigate that.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think so....pretty much the key to next winter IMHO.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Only .38" yesterday....thought I had gotten porked again, but I was stunned to see another .87" in the gage today for a 1.25" event total. Seems to have been kind of mesoscale because some surrounding sites had much less.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, precipitation is the problem from your area into NNE....temps pretty near equally as correlated to snowfall here...close. Slight hedged towards precip from my area near the NH border and on up.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    @bluewaveIs that you?
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I know what you mean. 1957 and 1965 were very good here, but they were kind of borderline strong versus super.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, just having some fun. I appreciative his insight and refreshers in espanol.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think I'm fluent in 12 different languages as a result of following your ENSO updates.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, it's the only decent one out here.
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