IDK...10:1 on the EURO has no one over 5"...I feel like a bit of a blend is in order, at least.....I am fine with the EURO Kuchie, but ignore the GFS product.
We always see a few rouge OP runs trying to up the ante on these deals, but we know that they are.....dynamics are really limited to a relatively short window. 10"+ amounts are very isolated if they do occur.
Yea, I just think it's wise to modulate expectations based on past experiences with systems of this ilk, rather than every permutation of model consensus.
I'm annoyed that I caved on first call and had everything so far SW instead of sticking to my guns it would move north.
Can already see it this year...one west on 12/2, north last one, even though I got the white xmas, and now southwest...every direction. Next one rainer (north)...
I'll be lucky to get 2", but ignore the NAM with respect to WAA at your own peril...no, it's not a SWFE per se, but you're still advecting a warm layer over top of a cold air mass.