Jump to content

40/70 Benchmark

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    79,970

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, 1807 was up there on my list. Good stuff, though...he reminds me a bit of Jim Hughes with the space weather focus.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    I wasn't rebutting your insight, just offering my own.... talking to you, not at you.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would describe that is a shitty pattern that while not prohibitively warm, per se, isn't good enough for the coast...especially early in the season.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Absolutely, but I think that there are more subtle seasonal undertones afoot that will provide at least one window for an event the likes of the Megalopolis blizzard of Feb 1983, the January blizzard of 2016 and the December 23, 1997 short-term crippling snow event across interior SNE. Will SOMEONE be left out? Probably-
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agreed....I called that January blizzard over the summer down to within a week.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, I like a weekly peak between 12/17 and 12/29, which is when 1997 and 1982 peaked, respectively. This yield a NDJ ONI peak. Great assessments this year.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, we were both always suspicious of any major impact from the strat. This is why just shake my head when trolls call me a "denier", etc...I usually keep it pretty real and don't hype anything unless it's truly warranted.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think the STJ could be north of that season.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Absolutely, but I think there maybe some deviations given the state of the extra tropical Pacific.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    This never had a prayer of being easterly.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Seems like we all agree it will be warm....just a matter of whether there will be a decent window or two.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    That looks like the porn I tried to watch growing up during the 80s and early 90s in my mom's house....I think I can make out a nipple there, Donnie, you dirty birdie...
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    @forkyfork..."cope".
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    I will say I think this bolsters confidence that it won't be as warm as 2015, but I don't think it will be "wintry".
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not necessarily....but I'm with you, I still think December is mild...too much evidence.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, that is a lock considering it's a "bottom-up" phenomenon...
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    I have no idea what you mean. I don't see how or why that is an analog in any way, shape or form, aside from the fact that it's likely to be a mild winter.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Def. not this quickly, but it does stand to reason that CC will chip away at the bookends of the season first.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    We ended up getting a western PV lobe to phase in, which ruined that storm...I remember DT gave up on winter after that .
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    He is one of those AI jockeys like SnowBirdBob and all of those fools.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Thanks for the correction....what was it for Dec- March. so I can check my numbers?
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    To be fair, those are all warm ENSO events offered far less resistance to be the development of HLB...probably to an extremely neg AO season like those years.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree, here.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    That may very well happen, but I would think that is what guidance would be showing at this point, regardless.....first of all, those runs default towards ENSO in the longer term, secondly, they are usually adjust to stratospheric phenomena had a pretty lethargic pace. This is why I spent 5-6 months telling people that that big +TNH pattern was going to develop late last January, despite guidance looking to protract that mid month mild period at times.....slow to adjust to the reflection event that I knew was coming in July.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    45+ days for November.
×
×
  • Create New...