40/70 Benchmark

Nothing wrong with posting data....I just mentioned it looks just like 2023. Is that likely? Not IMO, but possible if Chuck is right about the N Pacific.

I think 15-16 is possible...97 and 82 is unlikely. That being said, I think in the absence of a N Pac vortex, assuming that is the case, the range of potential outcomes this winter would expand because we maybe less prone to an overwhelming Pac jet.

My position is in between both of you....I don't think it's merely a coincidence, as there are plenty of signs that El Nino has not yet coupled with the mid latitudes throughout the N Hem....however, Chuck seems more resigned to the fact that that won't change for winter than I am.

Heh... @Typhoon Tip

Man, the latest CFS is how you watch 'ole man winter swallow a pistol.....brutal combination of east-based El Nino overlaid onto residual MC regime....look familiar? It should-

If ever there were a season to be leery of disregarding ENSO in favor of CC-oriented conceptualizations, it's this one.

Looking at the orientation of the vortex up north and the slope of the height field out west, I would be willing to hedge "white over wet", especially for the interior, in this map VERBATIM. IMHO, while it isn't a cold pattern with that raging PAC jet, what cold is available would be streamlined into our quadrant of the country. Like Will said, if that GOA low ever found it's way 1000 miles west, then the sky would be the limit...but I don't anticipate that.

AFTER the first week of September. I give it a cursory glance as I do the contributors on this site as far as the winter outlook goes....but personally, I'm not fond of his presentation.... has this way of going about it where as he never actually commits himself to anything, and I think his interpretation of ENSO leaves a great deal to be desired. He clings to these archaic, over simplified generalizations, such as "winter will rock if ENSO weakens quickly"...his understanding of ENSO is quite crude and not nuanced enough. It's apparent that he doesn't have a firm grasp of local climo when viewing his storm maps for the region.

That's +PNA/-NAO...don't mistake the blue shading out west in association with an immense PAC jet as RNA....look at the height lines..see how they have a gentle WNW - ESE slope? That is a subtle +PNA.

Not him...you are obsessed with DT. Joe Karnik

Guy I trust said after the first week of September.

Yea, the outlook overall was garbage, though...I misinterpreted the El Nino adjoining the west-warm pool as more of a Modoki influence, rather than MC, which is what it was. I learned so much from that bust, and from Chris.

Index Value Predicted '23-'24 DM Value Range Actual '23-'24 DM Value Forecast Error Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) -.30 to -.60 -1.51 Biased .91 positive Perennial North American Pattern (PNA) -.35 to -.65 +.55 Biased .90 negative ENSO OND 1.7-1.9 ONI EMI: .6 - .8 (West Tilt Basin-Wide) NDJ 2.0 EMI: .30 .01 degree too cool and one month too early. Biased .30 West (J-M) East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) +.30 to +.60 -.04 Biased .34 positive Arctic Oscillation (AO) -.30 to -.60 -.10 Biased .20 negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) +.10 to -.20 +.76 Biased .66 negative

I don't consider 2020 El Nino, but the other two I have as analogs....I am expecting a neutral PDO. I don't see what is outlandish about that in the most powerful El Nino in history.

My view is it's definitely something to be mindful of and keep a very close vigil on, but it's too early to read too much into it.

You don't need to convince me of that...I just spent an entire weekend writing about it...but by the same token, you can't go on about how low of a correlation ENSO has this time of year in one post, then read too much into the current disconnect RE winter in the next.

I guess maybe for a small area...however, I feel like it may be tougher to pull with how much humidity is increased as a result of more moisture. I think higher nighttime minds may foil any attempt at a redux.

Looks like a fish to me.

"On the 233rd consecutive day of rains, I fastened the business-end of the noose to Sally-Mae's tree house and donned thy rubbers for added weight"

No way.

My dream-August, that's what.

Excerpt from my latest Pacific work...shoutout to @bluewavefor some of the graphics: Summer 2026 Ground Truth Still Somewhat Redolent of Cool ENSO Although it is true that forcing and gradients are comparatively weak in the summer relative to the cold season, there is no disputing that summer 2026 has diverged from the intense El Niño composite, which validates the disconnect between the tropical and mid latitude AAM data. The theme of this summer has been ridging and much above normal temperatures throughout much of the CONUS. This is in stark contrast to the summer pattern preceding other intense El Niño events, which featured a prevailing trough and much cooler temps across much of the CONUS. Here is the 2026 individual summer season compared to those preceding the past four strong El Nino events, which have gotten progressively warmer : Some of this difference is likely attributable to the general pattern of expanding ridges and shrinking troughs that is a byproduct of climate change. However, since the pattern this summer is essentially the diametric opposite of the one in the summer composite preceding intense El Niño, it is fair to wonder if the developing intense El Niño is continuing to face more MC competition than is readily apparent. Note the similarity to summer 2026 with the summer composite preceding strong La Niña events. Obviously it isn't a perfect match, as there are higher heights over the northeastern CONUS in the La Niña composite (left), but the argument could be made that it is a stronger match to 2026 than the intense El Niño summer composite.

Summer 2026 Ground Truth Still Somewhat Redolent of Cool ENSO Although it is true that forcing and gradients are comparatively weak in the summer relative to the cold season, there is no disputing that summer 2026 has diverged from the intense El Niño composite, which validates the disconnect between the tropical and mid latitude AAM data. The theme of this summer has been ridging and much above normal temperatures throughout much of the CONUS. This is in stark contrast to the summer pattern preceding other intense El Niño events, which featured a prevailing trough and much cooler temps across much of the CONUS. Here is the 2026 individual summer season compared to those preceding the past four strong El Nino events, which have gotten progressively warmer : Some of this difference is likely attributable to the general pattern of expanding ridges and shrinking troughs that is a byproduct of climate change. However, since the pattern this summer is essentially the diametric opposite of the one in the summer composite preceding intense El Niño, it is fair to wonder if the developing intense El Niño is continuing to face more MC competition than is readily apparent. Note the similarity to summer 2026 with the summer composite preceding strong La Niña events. Obviously it isn't a perfect match, as there are higher heights over the northeastern CONUS in the La Niña composite (left), but the argument could be made that it is a stronger match to 2026 than the intense El Niño summer composite.