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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    How is 2015 a poor analog? 2015: 15JUL2015 region 1.2 2.7 region 3 1.9 region 3.4. 1.4 region 4. 1.1 2026: 15JUL2026 region 1.2 3.6 region 3. 2.3 region 3.4. 2.1 region 4. 1.1 1997: 16JUL1997 region 1.2 3.8 region 3. 1.9 region 3.4. 1.4 region 4. 0.4 2026 is even stronger everywhere else, but region 4 is identical. Technically, this is more east-based than 2015 because there is simply more heat back east, and region 4 is the same, but 1997 was def. more east-based. Neither of them are perfect, but I prefer 2015 because in 1997 region 4 wasn't even in El Niño territory....but again, I think it's irrelevant. Region 4 is leveling off, as it was in 2015 at this time if you look at the data...dropped down from 1.1 to .7 by July 29th. I think you are unnecessarily splitting hairs...we can all agree there is too much warmth east for this to act like a Modoki. It's basin-wide that will act like and east-based in the mean bc of all of the warmth back east, but there will be more volatility than a strictly east-based event.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, very plausible.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think @raindancewxhad the right idea....it will fade to just either side of neutral for winter.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    That Andrej Flis guy from severe weenie EU is full of shit again....only valid piece of analysis on that post is the El Niño favoring SSW over La Niña and the EURO blocking signal. I go in depth on his selective pruning of information at the end of my blog...should post tomorrow night.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Man, the Euro has big-time NAO blocking in January....I don't agree with that, but tries to pull a 1966.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Positive. Here is the PNA progression from DJFM 2023-2024, a weaker El Niño within the heart of the Pacific cold phase. 1.21, 0.45, 0.09, 0.45 It's going to be more negative than that season? Good luck....take a look at all of the super El Niño events....waaaaay positive. Even 1991....only one that was neutralish was 1972, but it was still barely positive. Now, maybe the orientation of the PNA ridge will suck....but the reading won't come out negative for the DJFM mean.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't agree with a -PNA winter season.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, but that doesn't render them worthless...rather it's incumbent on a quality seasonal forecaster to apply the necessary modifcations.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Everything @snowman19is pointing out about the magnitude of this event is spot-on, which is why there is hope that the pattern over the N Hemisphere grows more redolent of warm ENSO as we approach boreal winter.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Absolutely....basically what I am intimating. I am not discounting that at all.....just pointing out we aren't there yet.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Buy.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Modern climate seems to have more of a disconnect between the mid latitudes and tropics, which would obviously impact the summer more, when the signals are weaker at baseline....perhaps this will change as we get into the fall given the magnitude of ENSO.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    MJO was rather diffuse for the most part in July 1991, but notice the only appreciable amplitude was in the MC on the 7th-8th (phase 4) and...19th-22nd (phase 7) https://www.bom.gov.au/clim_data/IDCKGEM000/rmm.74toRealtime.txt This July, we are also getting huge amplitude in phase 8, but doesn't seem to matter.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Another -PDO season.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, all I need to see. This is what ultimately matters, so IMHO, you (collective) can shove all of the OLR, VP and MJO plots......we are having a cool ENSO July. Not what I want, but it is what it is.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    MJO isn't always the best tool because it doesn't show split forcing...check the Homollover (sp?) Anyway, the ridging this month in the NE has not been El Niño like....sure, you could blame the lack of correlation in the summer, but most other developing intense Nino events did not have it, and this one is developing faster. I think it's also important to mix in actual observations with the array or tools.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, both can be true.....Nino is epic in the tropics, but we still have some MC competition in mid latitudes.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I am getting a great deal of consensus from an early stage just like I did last season, which proved pretty damn accurate. My polar domain assessment should be ready hopefully before the weekend. It's taken a bit longer than I had hoped, which is par for the course if you're doing it right.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    I hate the heat, but the humidity is no prize, either....but I expect that in August...by far the most humid month, while July is hottest. It's the inverse of the winter, when January is coldest, but February is snowiest. at least here on the east coast.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, this is confirming that the tropics are 100% in El Nino mode, but I await more evidence that the mid latitudes are.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Nope, literal- question mark was confusing, I guess. My bad-
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree...what I said. lol
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I love Chuck's formula, but I am skeptical of it this year with that signal.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Guessing Feb 2015 was the one top-ten coldest. I wish we would focus a bit more on temp maxes instead of mean because I feel like the nocturnal element does inflate the degree of impact somewhat. I don't really care if its 21 on RAD nights instead of 18....I care how warm it is during the day and when it's precipitating. Don't get me wrong....I know it's warming, I'm not trying to steal anyone's climate change, but it's warming the most on clear nights and the days/stormy nights are most relevant to us.
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