Jump to content

40/70 Benchmark

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    78,420

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    He's not wishcasting if you read his posts, he expects competing MC forcing like 2023.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's going to be a torch.....but we had some shots back then that just didn't pan out. If things were timed differently, we could have availed of some -NAO periods...hell, my area pulled off a great event as it was just prior to xmas. Personally, I doubt it ends up as east-based as 1997...but if we don't cool the west Pacific off, then that would be even worse because it would mean MC competition as far as forcing. If we cool the west Pacific off and get a basin wide deal, then we have a shot at something.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Either way, we are getting a pig ridge in Canada...but we can either have a trough in the southeast, or a cool ENSO like se ridge. This why my 2023 outlook was such a dud...I didn't get that back then.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    A pure super El Nino would offer more hope for a wintry period than the warm/cool ENSO hybrid that we witnessed in 2023 and to a lesser extent, 2015....especially early in the season.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think this is the first time I have every genuinely hoped you were right.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I'm open to an alternate solution, but I think the default expectation should be continued attenuation of the ability of warm ENSO to modulate the north Pacific moving forward.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Tell me you're a weenie without telling me-
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think you have to assume another La Nino given the consistent RONI lag.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, CC is limiting the utility of traditional indexes....we need a RONI for the IOD. I bet the modern IOD readings are falsely inflated due to the rising SSTs, so you can't assume this will entirely eradicate the La Nina background.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is what I was driving at.....the very strong +IOD didn't prevent the La Nino in 2023, so how can we be confident that it will this year....
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, you could do that with any period....add March in and winter wasn't that cold.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Of course, I'm just saying it's a consideration. I used to be oppose to it, but have started incorporating it a bit.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Either way it will be mild, but we would at least have a shot at a decent stretch if you're right. So the +IOD wasn't that strong in 2015 and 2023??
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    The coming winter season is goin to be a good test as to whether the absolute RONI value or the delta between it and the RONI is of greater significance. The key is whether or not we get that "La Nino" half-assed Aleutian low like 2023 again.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think keying in on major signals when developing an analog composite does have some value.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I def. wouldn't be as worried about it where you are....more wiggle room.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    TBH, I think I would bet on this season being more impactful for the US than last season.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    That isn't what I said. However, I will discount a winter that is anything like 2009-2010 this coming season. Does that mean very little snowfall? No, not necessarily, but it will be warm.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Everywhere.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is in no way 2009-2010...not remotely relevant. You have brought that up a couple of times...it's moot. It was much weaker and the warmth was relegated to the western flank...not to mention we had just passed solar min with a neg QBO.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    What choice do I have? If it's a super El Nino with the RONI lagging the ONI like 2023, then it will suck...just pray for one good storm and an exit from Bluewave's warm-pool nightmare.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    With any luck, this El Nino will provide the impetus for the exit of this west-warm pool oriented decade, as snowman suggested. I understand that may mean biting the bullet this year.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, this is why I don't think the Modoki is really going to matter. I think it's more about how it relates to the ONI.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Hopefully that helps boost the RONI.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right....2018-2019 was la Nino, as well. It's honestly been over a decade since we've had a true El Nino, and the RONI even lagged in that one.
×
×
  • Create New...