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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    It may be hard to get too many inside runners with that look, though....IF THE MODEL IS RIGHT...pretty big time -NAO.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    It kinds of seems like the same forecast from 2023, just amplified, which doesn't engender a ton of confidence from me.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    One thing I will say is that with somewhat less MC influence, perhaps it may be a it easier to pop a -NAO during the coming season, but still a lot working against it in the grand scheme of things....solar cycle is about as hostile as it gets with geomagnetic energy peaking a couple of years removed from solar max.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Forecast -NAO is def. more severe this year than 2023, but it was biased too negatively in 2023, and I suspect that is again the case. That being said, this reality is certainly not prohibitive to some intervals of blocking, I just think the model is overdoing it.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Sept 2026: Sept 2023:
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Shrivel!!!
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Problem is I don't buy it given the magnitude and orientation of El Niño along with the QBO and solar cycle...it was kind of doing the same thing in Sept. 2023. Feb 2024 ended up with a +1.09 NAO.... +.76 DJFM mean NAO, so it whiffed on that.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm not concerned about that at all. We'll need it the year, IMHO....will be the difference between infrastructure-paralyzing paste and wind-swept sheets of rain. That is absurd for February....like 2010, stuff.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm not sure that I characterize much it's leaning into the -NAO as "very much canonical east based Nino". Aug: Sept:
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Things probably won't pick up appreciably until the latter half of October.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Most anomalous snowfall of my life occurred in April 1997, which was an otherwise bottom-dwelling season.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think the fast flow will be a large issue this year.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Much more moisture available today, along with the warmer climate.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I will say that the 1877 event was pretty similar to this and that winter sucked.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't see why it would be displaced southward...agree on northward.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Sorry for OT...honestly forgot which thread I was in.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Region 4 has kind of dried up for now, but I don't think that wil last.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Shit....I forgot I was in the Sept. thread...my bad. I early hunch on how the unprecedented magnitude of ENSO will factor in is one word...VOLATILITY. When you have those type of anomalies throughout the basin, it's going to introduce a myriad of different forcing schemes along with a very prominent and loaded STJ.....line it all up nicely, and the sky is the limit....but don't blink, or it will melt and you'll miss it.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Given the pace of the tropical season, there isn't much to catch up on. Three blogs, though the last two are very deep.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    My feeling is that more often than not, we are going to struggle with precip type, but the region still may very well score climo snowfall from the couple of events in which we do not have that issue.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Get out of my head.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    That is exactly what I am grappling with. If your thinking is fixed firmly within the box with respect to seasonal forecasting, then your final forecast product is likely to suffer a large degree of error.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I will say that @Typhoon Tipwere musing just yesterday about a theoretical "unicorn-scenario" in which the residual cool ENSO residue retards the development of said GOA low in such a manner as to allow for that. Said impact would need to be both more subtle than 2023 and more apparent than 2015.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I am usually lethal with ENSO forecasting, but I will say that the unparalleled magnitude of this El Nino is really posing a challenge for me with respect to any forecast precision beyond the blanket "super-El Nino designation. I am someone who exhaustively parses data to come up with analogs to inform future intensity forecasts and it makes it difficult given that this one is in a class of one. Def. take my exact numbers with a grain of salt this year.
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