Jump to content

40/70 Benchmark

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    79,757

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right....about 150W....that is what was in the MC previously. I have a question for you guys..name me all of the El Niño events with a very warm Kuroshio current east of Japan like we have now....then, once you do that, do me a solid and eliminate the ones with ample MC contribution and let me know the ultimate list. I think the folks whacking it to subsurface erotica need to remember that absolutely nothing operates in a vacuum...not even the most intense El Niño in history.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    We don't know how it's going to work out....maybe it won't end up mattering and the eastern convection will dominate for a 1997 replica, but I think ignoring alternative outcomes is silly. You can't just pretend the dual forcing isn't there on modeling.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    2015 and especially 2023 had the warmth enhance by the MC convection and 1997 had one clean convective node the east. I don't feel like you are being entirely consistent in that you obsessed over the MC activity in previous seasons, but now you ignore that warm pool since it's in the central Pacific.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Literally no one said that......arguing for competing forces to emerge mid season and claiming something is "more important" are two different statements. It's not a matter of something else "trumping" the El Niño, but rather how other factors interact with it and the rest of the hemispheric landscape.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    That's because the El Niño forcing is the only game in town right now .....as the season goes along, it's going to get some competition from the west that 1998 didn't have once some of these gradients steepen. I never debated intervals of record warmth...but it's not going to be wall-to-wall. The first half will be very mild and that will not be negated...no way.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think you can totally discount the loss of MC forcing, though....so don't count your carbon footprints before they are made.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I ultimately deemed 1997 worthy of inclusion in the final QBO composite, but agree it's not one of the stronger ones.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    AGREE.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    No one is saying that...the question is how does the interaction between the strongest El Niño in history and the most powerful antecedent cold phase in history manifest across the hemisphere this winter.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    The season may look like 1997 in the mean, but it should be timed differently...you don't think December has a better shot at being milder and February colder than that season? You have been touting a warm December....1997 wasn't that warm.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I changed my stance on that a bit...it's not a bad QBO analog....only real weak spot is solar.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    That guys has always put out crap...it was previously organic crap, now it's chemically treated with AI.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    To be fair, models have also be underestimating that warm pool east of Japan, which is the primary driver of the residual -PDO...so that goes both ways...can be said for both competing forces.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, we'll just have to see. I understand that....this is why it wouldn't be wise to hedge towards an outcome as severe as 1965, in addition to CC, of course.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Total agreement.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    You would think that would be reflected in the precip output, but perhaps the models are just in error in that regard. We shall find out. BTW, I think the break did you well....your approach to disagreement is noticeably different and great for discussion.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, but you are neglecting the western portion of that "birdge", which actually has the heaviest precipitation anomaly...this is why I argue for increased variability relative to the super composite.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I was arguing that the forcing would be little to the west of the super-El Nino composite due to that, and you disagreed....it was like a couple of weeks ago.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right...like I said in my original point, which you disagreed with....PDO is not the driver, but it is reflective of the drivers, so it shouldn't be ignored.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm not crazy about the JMA this season....it has continued to try to turn this event into a Modoki, which never made much sense to me, and makes even less since now that it's getting the warm pool that far east.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    You were resisting me on the importance of the 30C warm pool with respect to forcing when it was modeled south of Hawaii, and I was arguing it would compete with the east-based El Nino, but now that there is support for it getting further east it's full-steam ahead. lol
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Thanks for the elaboration. We can agree to disagree. I don't think it's the <20C waters that is the issue, but rather the continued high-octane OHC that has been building in the western portion of the basin relative to the eastern section over the past decade plus. Obviously the west PAC has always been warmer given the Walker Cycle, but I think part of the reason we have seen this barrage or La Nina events this decade is due to the growing disparity between the west/eastern basins as a product of CC augmenting the cool phase of the multidecadal cycle. Sure, now we have the unprecedented magnitude of this El Nino finally working to restore some balance, but I have a hard time believing there won't be any resistance.....I think we are seeing that with respect to the lethargic rate of recovery of the PDO, most prominently evidenced by the warmth building east of Japan, as well as the residual disconnect between the El Nino and sensible weather over the course of the summer and into the fall. This battle is why I feel the forcing is modeled west of the intense-El Nino composite.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    @LakePaste25I'd love to hear why the PDO isn't reflective of crucial forcing. The "X" emoji's are similar to the gaudy AI visuals in that they add very little value. -PDO is not reflective of El Nino, but rather a competing force...you can ignore it at your own peril, or figure out what said force is and account for it.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right, but it's a refection of hemispheric forcing that absolutely has a profound effect on the long wave pattern. You are missing the point....it's like seeing a juiced-up disturbance ridging the STJ and up the coast, but telling people not to worry about the arctic high parked over Ottawa because it can't produce precipitation. Sure, but it will interact with entities that absolutely can. Stop viewing the atmosphere in a vacuum and focus on how everything interacts. You don't consume a bag of flower for dessert, right? No, you bake into the pie first.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Eh, details...it looks awesome, though, right?
×
×
  • Create New...