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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Father time is undefeated.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    You mean just pack, or including piles? I still have a couple of small mounds left at either side of the end of the driveway.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I thought I recall you posting something to the effect of a "typical front-loaded La Nina winter"? Perhaps I'm mistaken. Yea, I mixed up February and March, but other than that...one of my better efforts in the aggregate.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yup. We are definitely seeing more variation with fringe-events, though, which is why passing the baton from ONI to RONI was so crucial.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    When in doubt, go warm, though...not disputing that. But I'm like that 4th grade math teacher trying to instill the processes of solving long division problem into the class..."make sure you show the work", even if the short-answer could be easily discerned.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Perfect example, RONI and EMI denoted a La Nina that was better established than the traditional ONI would imply, so of some forecasters went warm in the east just based off of that...oops.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I'm taking about the actual pattern, though....not simply "warm or cold". Obviously warmer is the safe bet....
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Eh.....having issued 12 winter seasonal efforts now, I think they still have plenty of utility as long as you make an effort to incorporate climate change into the work. For instance, it's important to understand that what other forces are now competing with ENSO, and the ramifications said forces have on the hemispheric pattern. If you simply interpret a lower RONI as a weaker El Nino and blindly forecast colder because of that....yea, good luck.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Makes that succession of +WPO seasons that we had even more impressive considering we have also had a consistent cool ENSO baseline. No wonder we had such an awful stretch of eastern US winters given that we were ripping off +WPO La Nina events and the strong El Nino that was accompanied by -PDO.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm pretty sure we aren't getting a super El Nino.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, this past season already seemed to have behaved more like a +PDO, if anything, despite the continued negative readings.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Chuck, thanks so much. Two questions....I have to assume it's tougher to get the -WPO loading SST pattern ("C") during an El Niño? Secondly, do you have a similar schematic for an EPO correlation? TIA.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    My early hunch is it's right, but like I said....we shall see. So, so early...
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Do you have an image from this past fall to illustrate how it lead the big -WPO winter?
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    WPO is the index I have struggled with the most......I went big -WPO winter 2024-2025 and it was EPO instead....this past season I went big -EPO and it was -WPO. N Pac is a PIA.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I remember you telling me about the Indian ocean Aug-Nov being a good indicator of winter WPO...it looked strongly positive all summer and into the fall, before flipping drastically at the last moment. Looked kind of neutralish, but the WPO ended up strongly negative.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is my point...+PDO doesn't guarantee a cold winter...it merely increases the probability of the warmer west/colder east pattern. If we end up with like a 2.6 event, then it won't matter.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I have no issue with that.....it's why I always like to compare my work with your NAO formula before publishing.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes...and maybe that happens and it's still warm, or warm everywhere....too early to entertain that or dispute it.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    AGAIN....don't mistake this for me saying it has to be cold in the east next year...not what I am implying.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    We just flipped from this: To this: And now a healthy WARM ENSO is going to revert it back?? Shoot me for not buying in instantaneously and having pause-
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agreed, but I doubt we have a -PDO next season, and I'm also not sure it's east-based. The Pacific is changing....I don't think you are going to pull off an appreciable warm ENSO and maintain -PDO. We just saw that two years ago and it isn't happening again...never has.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm not arguing for a big winter next year...all I am trying to say is that nothing is set in stone yet. This is why I usually don't get into it this early. You end up defending a hypothetical position that you haven't even taken yet.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I did? Anyway, I'm not willing to delve in any further at this point.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Every other year is the warmest winter on record nationally...I don't see this is a novel concept.
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