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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    2009 was a pure Modoki season and was much weaker in magnitude. 1957 was basin-wide, but it was focused pretty far west and was barely a super-event. Forget 2009, but I guess 1957 is about as cold as one could expect, which was around normal.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think he means "stable" within the context of the modern GW trend.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    CANSIPS actually did well last season, but I agree it's too biased towards the Modoki end of the spectrum this year....alomng with the JMA, IMHO.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    No...it's not. It will be above average.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Where is the July verification composite from, the JMA site?
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think these changes are entirely immaterial with the degree of warmth throughout ENSO.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    No one thought it was right with a straight Modoki in the seasonal mean.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    1.78" Three-day total IMBY...much needed.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Go back and search...he literally calls for East coast bullseye every season.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    The arctic outbreak INVO VD Day was pretty remarkable.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I wouldn't because I think it will be solid.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, that's there I'm at.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    That's why Chuck's formula is negative.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'd bet against this being once in a lifetime given the acceleration of CC....it's not a coincidence.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    QBO is a great forecasting tool....I've been killing it the past couple years integrating the QBO with solar cycle.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I understand all of that....and I have tried to explain to you that you are taking that composite far too literally....it's not a forecast composite....it does't even incorporate the extra tropical Pacific. It's literally just a composite derived from solar, QBO and ENSO data, as that is how I assess the polar fields.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, generating clicks....which is often the antithesis of sound meteorology. Same crap-maps every year...without fail. I know to ignore him, but the masses don't know any better.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    God, I can't stand him...biggest hack there is.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    He was okay on a seasonal level, but I remember he initially rushed the flip back to cold in January. He kept to trying to go cold again first week and I knew it would take until mid month. At least he owned it.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, those are the brief shots of possibly historic cold. Probably January, then wave 1 reflection triggers a flip of the ride to Greenland and the -NAO will be more protracted. See Jan-Feb 1983.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Oh, okay....agreed. I thought you were implying that it may literally be negative...no way in hell. I agree that it could be boot leg.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes we can; it's gong to be positive. I'll bet you $500 right now- There is absolutely zero doubt in my mind. The PDO is another story, as that is much more nebulous.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    I was referring to JB, not you.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    No wonder I'm in a severe drought...this spot is always a regional min.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Actually viewing the data that you're using is overrated.
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