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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Why are you still here if you find nothing of value?
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    I just don't get anything out of operating under the assumption that others have nothing to offer.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Honestly, though...I don't think anyone could read through my material over the course of the past couple of years and come away with the conclusion that I am in denial of, or neglecting CC. I think that is also true of this forum for the most part.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    See ya...we'll miss this post quality.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    I just feel like discord is much more difficult to follow.....it's just rapid faire posts that just scroll into oblivion. I prefer the pages on the forum.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    100%. The NE forum has had countless get togethers.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    100%. I have seen zero personal attacks from you....snowman launched attacks like that routinely, for all of the valuable info that he added.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I have zero qualms with the folks that have zero sense of humor exiting stage right.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    To be fair, that was before I was taking Chris' musings about the increasing prevalence of MC forcing very seriously...I mocked him in the lead up to that 2023-2024 winter and he ultimately handed me my ass. Invaluable learning experience for me because my outlooks have been much better since and I've addressed what had been a cold/snow bias.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Depends where you are....most likely prohibitive along the east coast, at least.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I expected a bitter stretch in latter January into early February in association with that +TNH pattern, but it was cold more consistently than I expected.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Probably @Typhoon Tiplol
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    That JMA output is textbook Modoki composite. Again, I think that is overdone in the seasonal mean, but it is what it is.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's coming lol I'm telling you, he's going to shred this optimism like a ninja with absolute surgical precision.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Larry is feeln' it- Dude needs a Bluewave intervention, and pronto He'll slap you across the face with a series of JMA VP images.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    What I mean by exaggerated is with respect to the DJF mean pattern...it's probably going to be too cold in December, and while that DJF mean map may very well be representative of one month (February), it's highly likely to be overly reflected in the DJF mean on the model.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Wayyy too much optimism in this thread. We could use a Bluewave tutorial on how CC has engineered the failure of past auspicious seasonal runs by way of gargantuan ridges eating away the troughs like Pacman.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    We are def. due for a stretch like that.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I made that comparison the other day. I think it's valid, but exaggerated..
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    People were dicks because of the venom that he often spewed in his responses. The data that he posted was not the issue; I appreciated that. I had nothing to do with his latest intrapersonal conflict, but I have had my share with him, as well. Maybe he just needed a break...I think we all have at one time or another.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    1982-1983 had -EPO and a-WPO....uncharacteristically favorable N Pac. that year...only on in that subset, which is actually an outstanding analog....we just need to keep closing that RONI/ONI delta. 1972-1973 was the worst N Pac.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    I bet we see that delta continue to slowly shrink. 1982 actually ended up with a RONI that was higher than the ONI, which is likely why it's the only intense El Niño to average slightly -WPO. I don't expect us to get that far this year, as the ONI will remain somewhat higher, but I do think that the absolute RONI value will get higher than that Dec 1982 record of 2.4. I could see that RONI/ONI delta getting down to like .2 by winter.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    I like that the RON/ONI delta seems to be closing a hair (.5 to .4)...I mentioned back in my blog earlier this summer that this will be key to salvaging a decent second half...I hedged towards a 2015-like middle ground (think 1997 canonical /2023 MC opposite ends of spectrum), and still like that....at least.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I get what you were saying...no way will December be similar. I am sure to explain how I derive my seasonal composite members before introducing the map, in addition to also giving a composite list for each individual month, so I agree that a measure of preemptive context is important.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    It implies a negative AO winter in the mean for the coming season.
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