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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is what I was driving at.....the very strong +IOD didn't prevent the La Nino in 2023, so how can we be confident that it will this year....
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, you could do that with any period....add March in and winter wasn't that cold.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Of course, I'm just saying it's a consideration. I used to be oppose to it, but have started incorporating it a bit.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Either way it will be mild, but we would at least have a shot at a decent stretch if you're right. So the +IOD wasn't that strong in 2015 and 2023??
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    The coming winter season is goin to be a good test as to whether the absolute RONI value or the delta between it and the RONI is of greater significance. The key is whether or not we get that "La Nino" half-assed Aleutian low like 2023 again.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think keying in on major signals when developing an analog composite does have some value.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I def. wouldn't be as worried about it where you are....more wiggle room.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    TBH, I think I would bet on this season being more impactful for the US than last season.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    That isn't what I said. However, I will discount a winter that is anything like 2009-2010 this coming season. Does that mean very little snowfall? No, not necessarily, but it will be warm.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Everywhere.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is in no way 2009-2010...not remotely relevant. You have brought that up a couple of times...it's moot. It was much weaker and the warmth was relegated to the western flank...not to mention we had just passed solar min with a neg QBO.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    What choice do I have? If it's a super El Nino with the RONI lagging the ONI like 2023, then it will suck...just pray for one good storm and an exit from Bluewave's warm-pool nightmare.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    With any luck, this El Nino will provide the impetus for the exit of this west-warm pool oriented decade, as snowman suggested. I understand that may mean biting the bullet this year.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, this is why I don't think the Modoki is really going to matter. I think it's more about how it relates to the ONI.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Hopefully that helps boost the RONI.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right....2018-2019 was la Nino, as well. It's honestly been over a decade since we've had a true El Nino, and the RONI even lagged in that one.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, unfortunately, I feel like the remaining delta between the two is more important than the absolute RONI reading. Looks like a subpar season with an elevated risk for a big-dog.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Cyclical.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, that is my fear. I managed an awesome event on January 7th, though....was pretty localized, though.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Absolutely. This is what I have been getting at with the RONI focus.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    I've really made a concerted effort to factor CC in after the 2023 El Nino handed me my ass.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Only issue is that the RONI ls lagging the ONI by more this go-around, even though it is like to reach or exceed that absolute value of 1982.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    No idea, I only do hurricanes in the summer....and incremental winter outlooks prep.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think it will depend on the RONI vs ONI relationship.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
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