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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    @forkyfork..."cope".
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    I will say I think this bolsters confidence that it won't be as warm as 2015, but I don't think it will be "wintry".
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not necessarily....but I'm with you, I still think December is mild...too much evidence.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, that is a lock considering it's a "bottom-up" phenomenon...
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    I have no idea what you mean. I don't see how or why that is an analog in any way, shape or form, aside from the fact that it's likely to be a mild winter.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Def. not this quickly, but it does stand to reason that CC will chip away at the bookends of the season first.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    We ended up getting a western PV lobe to phase in, which ruined that storm...I remember DT gave up on winter after that .
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    He is one of those AI jockeys like SnowBirdBob and all of those fools.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Thanks for the correction....what was it for Dec- March. so I can check my numbers?
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    To be fair, those are all warm ENSO events offered far less resistance to be the development of HLB...probably to an extremely neg AO season like those years.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree, here.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    That may very well happen, but I would think that is what guidance would be showing at this point, regardless.....first of all, those runs default towards ENSO in the longer term, secondly, they are usually adjust to stratospheric phenomena had a pretty lethargic pace. This is why I spent 5-6 months telling people that that big +TNH pattern was going to develop late last January, despite guidance looking to protract that mid month mild period at times.....slow to adjust to the reflection event that I knew was coming in July.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    45+ days for November.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, it was tougher sledding down there, no pun intended....but we saw well over a foot just prior to xmas up here. I agree with most of what you say, but I just think there will be a bit more of a window this season than you do. We are probably pretty close on mean temp departure for the season, though.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    2016 sucked around here...basically for areas that whiffed on the blizzard.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    2.21" rainfall on the month.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Deeply negative, no....but I think it will get more favorable in that domain during the stretch.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, toss the Modoki crap...all guidance has been erroneously doing that.....but Cansips and JMA have been worst.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Nice.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm not forecasting above normal snowfall or below average temps for the season...just to be clear.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not to mention....1972 and 2015 featured such a dearth of snow up here due to supression during colder intervals, NOT continuously prohibitive warmth. Now we expect a STJ displaced futher to the north as a byproduct of CC, which I think is a net gain up here despite a warmer mean. Christ, give me the keystone event of the season further north if it means the season is +7 instead of +5.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Wonder if anbody stopped and wondered what will happen if they issue a stop-payment on their subscription?
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    We have talked about this and it's the recent why I am employing the "reversal" terminology moving forward, rather than SSW to avoid these scientific inconsistencies.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    On a national level, of course given the background warming in conjunction with how much OHC has built up to trigger this unprecedented El Niño, but I'm not concerned with that....no one in their right mind is disputing the notion of a very mild season in the DJFM seasonal mean. I don't think the folks like bviking, who laugh at each one of my insights, have really wrapped their minds around what I am saying. What I am focused on is that the prospects for a large east coast winter storm should be heightened relative to 2023 and probably even 2015 given the absence of MC convective forcing. Yes, this season is more east-based than 2015....but it's also less MC-based, as well. You can't obsess over the background warming and neglect the implications of having absolutely no convection in the MC because it means that source of destructive interference for major east coast cyclogenesis is removed during those fleeting colder intervals. I feel as though you are playing with fire if you disregard the prospects for any major winter weather along the east coast with a STJ that potent in conjunction with all CP and EP forcing....the reality is that ALL THREE of this seasons produced snowfalls of well over a foot on the CP of SNE, and 2/3 had substantial MC contribution, so I think folks need to cool it with the group think philosophy and pry open their minds a bit.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I assume this is a typo.....
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