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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    You can see that NF cold pool go bye-bye, as I was expecting earlier this summer.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    30 Day change:
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    August should be out early next week.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    August isn't quite out yet...May-July: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/atmoswrit/map/index.html
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, like you said....we need to give it through October.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Should be in the seasonal mean, but we need to time one during the negative intervals...there should be some.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    BTW, if you have seen the EURO and CANSIPS snowfall output, this appears to be what these models do.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Sure, but the question you need to ask yourself..."is it already out of the picture completely"...because if the answer is no, then it will show up this season.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree. I wonder if a neutralish PDO with an El Niño of this magnitude doesn't shift the STJ inward and upward relative to climo for intense El Niño.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, someone in the New England forum was trying to tell me were going to have a -PNA this winter...I was like, find a super El Niño that pulled that off. -AO/+PNA means you can essentially eliminate the bottom dwelling seasons....even 1972 didn't. Now, maybe it will be bootleg, etc...but the season will average +PNA in the DJFM mean.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    What I can tell you based on what has been happening for the past decade is that the error is likely to be guidance underestimating the scope and magnitude of that Canadian ridge, so it's probably safe to assume that the greater heights will extend further to the south and east than most guidance suggests.....which combined with the poor read on the Pacific makes me very suspicious of that trend to shove the lower heights northward on the CANSIPS. This isn't me saying awful winter....I don't think, or want that to be the case, but that doesn't mean that I'm going to don my Frosty the Snowman boxers every time that I post.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't know Wall, so I'll take your word for it. I think most on this board would agree that my only agenda is getting the forecast correct, and placing much stock into a model with such a poor initialization of the Pacific basin, both ENSO and extra tropical, gives me significant pause before seriously considering it's output. This isn't about CC, or how well the model did last year....it's about the fact that it has such an obviously poor read on the Pacific.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    So it's going to be too low with heights in the southeast, but nail the northeast and mid atlantic? Good luck-
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Music to my eyes, ears and weenie.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    @Stormchaserchuck1
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's affecting the pattern a great deal in the tropics, probably more so than any ENSO event in history at this time of year, but it's impact in the mid latitudes of the N HEM remains rather meager at this time.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Output looks okay on satelitewx.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    @stadiumwaveCan you link where you generated this image?
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    That doesn't change the fact that it's initialization of the Pacific is off, so I would still adjust warmer....but that does make a little more sense. Yea, H5 for August at one month lead was good, but that doesn't mean that is always the case every month.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Sure, but we have good reasons to believe that it isn't. I could still doubt that you're one of NYC's finest after you show me your badge and a pic of you sleeping in the cruiser, but that doesn't change the facts. No runs are key if the model incessantly suffers from an erroneous initialization. Again, this doesn't necessarily mean an awful winter is en route, it just means that CANSIPS output is highly flawed. Maybe we will make out okay and score a HECS...both can be true, and in fact, I suspect that they are.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, and I'm not being facetious....quite literally.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    -AO/+PNA winter en route.....confirms what I had already figured.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Often times when seasonal guidance misses, it never caves....it just misses.
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