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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think you can hedge in the narrative....not these asinine AI-generated graphics...agree, there.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    East-based composite versus Euro forecast:
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    See how far west 2023-2024, hence the heavy MC influence.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Basin-wide forcing, despite east-based Ssts.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    EURO hits that even harder. It's due to two things IMO....Stratosphere, but not what you think...wave one reflection, as opposed to SSW.....we aren't seeing a reversal IMHO. El Niño is also going to fade westward post-peak, so likely some periods that are more redolent of Modoki in the back half of the season.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I use it more for poleward Aleutian ridging in La Niña.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not to that degree, no...that is why I am wondering if adds more Modoki influence versus MC influence relative to the east-based-super composite.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Hitting my the top end of my 2.4 to 2.6 range...
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    1973 is the one I don't like, but I don't expect the strongly +AO that that season had...even NAO maybe more favorable. Biggest issue here maybe the ridge suppressing storms at times.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looks to be slightly less MC influence than 2016.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Lines up well:
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    1958, 1987 and 1973 look like best matches to me.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think we need to be careful here because the heat sink-oceans are changing the way we need to view the hemisphere when doing seasonal outlooks....there are some illusions taking place with regard to how 2023 appeared to mimic a Modoki configuration at the surface and was actually a La Nino-hybird, as this year maybe ostensibly an east-based deal acting more basin-wide as by product of all of that warmth tugging everything westward relative to expectation.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    What is also interesting is that the EURO has trended stronger with the Canadian ridge centered near the east shore of HB, as the it adjusts to the unprecedented magnitude of El Nino, but the position of that Aleutian low remains dead-nuts on that of the August run. IOW, it hasn't trended into any more of an east-based configuration. This isn't what I would expect to see if you are looking for a season 6-month long fall.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    That is an east-based El Nino with a basin-wide expression across the hemisphere on the EURO...no doubt. I think those expecting a season completely devoid of winter weather on the east coast are going to be in for a surprise if that model is correct.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    They should if they are incorporating real-time data.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    That is an east-based El Nino with a basin-wide expression across the hemisphere on the EURO...no doubt. I think those expecting a season completely devoid of winter weather on the east coast are going to be in for a surprise if that model is correct.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    @Typhoon Tipand I were speculating about this as a potential "unicorn" scenario...
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    The GOA low doesn't hug the coast as much as I would expect with an El Nino that east-based.....I wonder if the residual cool ENSO/MC residue is helping us a bit on the EURO. Consider how the forcing got tugged into the MC in 2023, even though the it appeared as though it should be in the Modoki region on the VP composite....almost looks like here, it's acting more like a basin-wide event even though it looks textbook east-based. Maybe the benefit of an unprecedented push eastward to get that warm pool displaced a bit. Still def. -PDO tendencies with the warmth east of Japan, etc...
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    I kind of feel dirty for saying this, but December doesn't look awful on the EURO....it starts that ridge up by HB, near where the basin-wide composite has it, before it slides ESE and presses as the season evolves. January looks the most hostile IMHO, especially for the coast. Pretty damn near climo snowfall...almost looks like the Feb storm track.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    EURO seems to favor the interior for January, kind of like 1987 and 2003, and then a coastal track for February...the type that @dryslothates, which gets shunted eastward by a block, as the Canadian ridge intensifies and presses.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Best ENSO analog def. looks like 1997, but I still like 1982 better as a seasonal analog.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Hopefully that gap closes a bit more, but it will be tough...maybe get it to .3.
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