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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    That would be good news IMHO...don't get me wrong, I'm know it will be warmer than average, but like 1982-1983, that scenario would likely entail some bonafide period(s) of winter.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I figured there were some southern sliders in there because December and March had very little snowfall up here, despite not being prohibitively warm at all.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I expect to do a pretty deep-dive on the RONI/ONI relationship in my outlook this year because I feel that is going to be even more crucial than modoki index to be perfectly honest. I don't care if the SST pattern looks modokiish if the west Pacific is a hot tub and we can't pop an appreciable Aleutian low.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    We'll see what happens. I think 1982-1983 is a best case scenario assuming El Niño gets as powerful as some are suggesting. Looking back at the local climo data....winter was even better than I thought. Three storms over a foot in my area. December/January/March were slightly above normal temps and February slightly below normal. Snow pack peaked at 26" on February 11th....bit more than last year.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not necessarily.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I like that we seem to be closing the gap between RONI and ONI....I bet we see more of an Aleutian low/SE ridge response if that is the case. 82-83 had decent NE snowfall even though it was warm in the mean.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Still feel this will end up happening....sorry, @Stormchaserchuck1 Cool ENSO, anyway...we'll have to see about technical La Nina, but I would hedge yes.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    They need to start updating the QBO.....that is going to make forecasting the polar domain more challenging in terms of finding the best analogs if they don't resume at some point this summer. There is more to it than simply east vs west. Good point. I was bringing that up last winter and early on in the spring as an argument against super, but it clearly doesn't matter, at this point. Definitely going at least strong.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    You can generate on these two sites using ERA 5 dataset, Chuck....only issues are that the time periods are more restricted...ie I can't do DJFM, and there are no daily options....ie March 10-25, etc...
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Oh, wow...I didn't think those went past early March, like the H5 stuff.....awesome. Issue is just H5 dailies, then
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    These are the best I have for monthly composites right now.. https://climatereanalyzer.org Alternatively, you can also still use PSL by drawing upon the ERA 5 dataset, since NCAR was discontinued in March....my problem is that you can't use ERA 5 to generate daily maps here: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/composites/day/ You also can't get degrees F and precipitation in inches using ERA 5. So I am seeking an alternative to generate those maps as to now be relegated to monthly data using degrees Kelvin and measuring precipitation in mm moving forward.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    I ask questions like that in this thread because this is where most of the seasonal guys like to congregate, so there is a method to my madness haha...not going OT just to be obnoxious.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    No, sorry...I see why you thought that because this is the ENSO thread. I apologize for the OT inquiry...I am asking about temp and precipitation anomaly map generation. Looking for a site that allows for daily map generation for temps in degrees F and precipitation in inches.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Does anyone have a site where I can generate 12/1 through 3/31 temp/precip anomaly maps? All of the sites I have checked do NOV-APR, DJF, JFM, etc....it's so annoying. I can't find a site that will allow me to manually enter an arbitrary daily period like PSU had....they all bin them into predetermined periods. I can use the ERA 5 dataset on PSU: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/atmoswrit/map/index.html But it plots temps using degrees kelvin and precipitation in MM. Does anyone have a site that can generate DJFM temps maps using degrees F and precipitation using inches?
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    That is what we want to see to avoid the dreaded cool-ENSO-like se ridge during the coming season IMHO.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I have to be honest...I'm taking it with a grain of salt at this stage, too....to be fair to Adam. If it still looks like that in October, then it may be time to take it more seriously.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, WPO was still + on the season technically per calculation, but no doubt there was more volatility this season. I think we are likely to see that continue.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Very clever ploy in editing in the shout out to me, so as not to exhaust 1/5th of your daily allotment of posts!! 'Cmon, dude....you know I'm not a JB.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I mentioned that in my March recap...there is often a bonafide Pacific trough regime about 10 days following PV splits. Showed up in two of my primary analogs: This split of the PV was then followed by a strong Pacific trough regime that resulted in record warmth about 7-10 days later, which was in fact very comparable to the sequence observed in the wake of the February 2018 analog-warming. This is same phenomenon also occurred to a somewhat lesser extent in 2001, as very warm temperatures with highs in the 50s also occurred on February 20th, 2001, which is 10 days subsequent to the February 11th, 2001 PV split.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Okay, this is what I focus on...the reversal, which is why 2023 didn't register with me. I know February 2023 had a reversal.....but wasn't under the impression that the 23-24 season did.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    1982-1983 is the only super El Nino that had kind of a favorable WPO, which is likely why the NE managed near normal snowfall. While I could see something like that, I do have a hard time envisioning a cold season.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Snowman must have missed that part of the seasonal forecast in his tweet regurgitation.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Chuck, I think I do recall some blocking during 2023-2024 now.....I remember Chris going on about how the se ridge was adjoining the NAO blocks that season, which is what killed us....likely a byproduct of the cool ENSO residue that persisted that season (RONI lagging ONI).
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Just harkens back to my point about the monthly tabular readings not providing an accurate portrayal all of the time.....you need to view the dailies because there were significant -WPO intervals this season, which is why it was so cold with more snow.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I understand that, but I simply didn't recall them...probably because they were useless.
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