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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    If it were ever going to happen, this is the year.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    I love how every few days he takes to social media and declares Iran dead, yet the war carries on and prices stay up. I should have went on X yesterday and told everyone that the Sox kicked ass in the Bronx and have clinched the division.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    New run of the seasonals should be out soon....I expect them to back off of the -NAO and go warmer early on.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Should be 40s with his elevation
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Wow, looks cool next weekend...nice.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Interesting...didn't know that. Confirms what I had already suspected about this December. Maybe that is why El Nino Decembers are usually warm....not so much about El Nino itself, but some of the intervals of -SOI that goes along with it...though, I guess it really doesn't matter.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Like I have been saying, you need to take that "SevereweatherEurpe" or whatever it is with a grain of salt....I picked apart his arguments for a neg NAO season in my July blog, as his stuff is full of half-truths. He doesn't lie, but he cherry picks data and doesn't tell you the whole story. Funny how it doesn't look as favorable for an NAO winter now a month later.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I expected that and explicitly predicted that your index would neutralize when I did my polar post in latter July.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Getting pretty close to go-time for Check's NAO calculation....should be shifting towards + with only one month remaining in the period...
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yup.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I think the JMA is too cold, too. ...they both have the El Niño with a hard shift towards Modoki. I think the EURO is more reasonable with a basin-wide shift.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, it was feverish pace for several years...used the opportunity to dig deeper on winter seasonal stuff and hone my methods.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    My last post on the tropics was a post-mortem on Hurricane Milton on October 10th, 2024. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/10/hurricane-milton-verification-devil-is.html All you need to know.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looking at them both, which was painful...I agree that 2015 was worse from a synopitc standpoint at H5...2023 was bad, but December 2015 was as bad as it gets.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Oh, phew...
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    They were both brutal...like...how painful? Slam the refrigerator door shut on my balls, or kick me as hard as you can?
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Where is that? Nationally last year wasn't close to 1995-1996. Here is the PNA from last winter DJFM: 2026 -1.41 0.79 -0.56 -1.74 That is very favorable?? It was the orientation of the PV that saved us, not the PNA. Very predictable outcome considering the high solar/extreme easterly QBO predisposition towards intense mid winter +TNH regimes. In fact, strong +TNH is often accompanied by RNA. It did coincide with an interval of PNA from mid January into February in this case, which probably heightened it, but the PNA was not last winter's defining teleconnection. Strong +TNH season.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I Iike that analog better from a +TNH (High solar/E QBO) perspective....2015 would have been my top polar analog had it been cool ENSO, but wish I had still used it. I'm not going to be as ENSO restrictive with weaker events moving forward, especially as ENSO continues to wash out some. The extra Pacific was much more hostile in general than 2015, which is somewhat related to ENSO, but def. a great polar analog.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    You understand both can be true, right? It's not as cold as the 1970s...got it.....but last season was not as conducive to sustained cold and high latitude blocking as 1995.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    I do think the increasing predisposition towards +NAO and +WPO is in part a byproduct of CC, but it's not the only factor...there are other reasons why 2025 was not as favorable as 1995. That being said, would an identical pattern be as cold? No...agree, there.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is the problem with any issue as politicized as CC....no one is ever going to "win", or change their mind because the data is always going to be shoehorned into a specific ideology. We could end up somehow having this winter be colder than last year and I would bet my life they would find a way to link it to CC.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    So weren't the solar cycle and the state of the northern Atlantic....both of which were much different from 1996. Chuck and I were both pretty accurate with that.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right...weakening correlation due to the the ambient warmth washing it out, which is why it's facing more hemispheric competion.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Like I just said, competing forces....it's why 2023 had MC tendencies. Last season wasn't as favorable as 1995....you keep acting as though CC was the only difference. It wasn't.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree Dec probably sucks.
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