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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    On the east coast...
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Should be a good flex tonight before it gets pummeled early tomorrow.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I thought we tied the record of 10/8 from 1851.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Which is why it probably isn't a good idea to speak in absolutes....the issue that has been plaguing us for the past decade is that we have been mired in a perpetual state of MC forcing...if 2023 was buoyed in phase 6 and this is further east, then I'll take my chances with that.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    In the mean....not necessarily over the shorter-term due to more stochastic pattern flexes; there are also favorable periods within a bad season.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't mean this to be insulting, either....I have had some brutal forecasts....anyone being honest and transparent has.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Either way, it all boils down to a warmer baseline.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Pretty sure Forky missed the nice season we had last year...honest question @forkyfork, what would you need to see to forecast a decent winter? It was petty obvious to a lot of folks that the combination of high solar/very strong easterly QBO and modest-eastern biased La Nina would yield a plethora of chances last winter.... I get that the ridges were larger, troughs smaller as compared to similar patterns 50 years ago...not the point-
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    We all agree it's an uphill battle, but it's the close-minded, bandying about of absolutes in a divisive manner that folks take umbrage to....it's a nuisance at the very least, and a barrier to constructive dialogue at worst.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    TBH, it needs to be to have a similar impact given the anecedent state of the Pacific.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    We can all agree 1995-1996 was in incredible winter, but there was a notable deviation from that pattern during the middle portion of January.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    You're right...I guess Ayer, MA will have to settle for 2"/hr instead of the 6" in 1997...then again, there is more moisture available in the warmer air...
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    More often than not, sure...but as you know, there are shorter-term deviations from the longer term seasonal mean. On Tuesday December 23rd, 1997 - A snowstorm was forecasted to be fast-moving and produce light snow across New England slowed down and intensified dumping nearly two feet on some parts of the regio
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    1997-1998 was more favorable early on because it was unique in the sense that occurred during a strong easterly QBO in conjunction with the low and ascending portion of the solar cycle. This season will undoubtedly be more hostile early on, but probably more favorable later in the season given the westerly QBO/descending solar that is far more common during intense episodes of warm ENSO.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    How did this one work out in SNE?
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm surprised, usually low pressure over SE Canada works out well on the east coast.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's also important not to be too dialectical in our thought process, as it's human instinct to focus on snow/rain as binary events, but the truth is that in all likelihood they often won't be this season. Several 2-5"ers followed by IP and rain still counts towards the seasonal total.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    That would make sense to me and is consistent with my forecast.....RONI should still lag in the seasonal mean by around .2 to .4, but may get closer than that late.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, that is precisely what I was intimating in my write-up.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    I saw that...he's swinging in towards my early hedge. Usually he likes to tout a more rapid weakening of El Nino amongst data, but I don't think that is the case, so it's probably the EURO in general looking snowier.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    All guidance has a weak PV....check out the UK data. Blocking in a stronger El Nino isn't too surprising, but it is given the state of the stratosphere and solar cycle....I still feel like it's overdone in the seasonal mean, but I have no issue with a blocky second half overall.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, I think that it definitely part of it, but some more than others...I think it's also important to view the RONI relative to the ONI, rather than in a vacuum. A crude, but effective way to distinguish these more recent MC oriented El Nino seasons is to utilize the delta between the RONI, which separates ENSO-related warming from general background warming attributable to climate change, and the ONI. The positive ONI/RONI ratio in the four most recent El Nino seasons, which denotes a RONI lagging the ONI, is indicative of surplus of warmth over the western Pacific relative to the eastern Pacific, which is the very essence of the mechanism that focuses the convection there. Notice how the ONI and RONI are equal in 1997 and the ONI is actually higher in 1986-1987. However, in 2016, the RONI is significantly lower and the spread is even greater in 2023, with a RONI value .6 lower than than the ONI. ONI RONI RATIO 2023: 2.1 1.5 0.6 2018 1.1 0.8 0.3 2016 2.8 2.4 0.4 2014 0.8 0.6 0.2 2009 1.6 1.6 0.0 2006 0.9 0.9 0.0 2004 0.7 0.9 -0.2 2002 1.3 1.5 -0.2 1997 2.4 2.4 0.0 1994 1.1 1.4 -0.3 1991 1.7 2.3 -0.6 1987 1.7 1.6 -0.1
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I have it falling just short.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    31.1 this AM....fake cold, real frost.
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