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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Probably right, but you also have to leave open for the possibility that the longer range defaults towards climo.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Of course it lags, but it leads you to the driver.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    2023-2024 had strong MC forcing though, which as you know is significant source of destructive interference for high latitude blocking. I don't deny that this is probably CC enhanced, and perhaps it won't end up meaning much...I'm open to that, but I don't think that we can summarily dismiss it as an artifact of CC.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Getting Modoki value correct is part of what comprises an accurate ENSO forecast....you want to say EURO has been best, okay....but it's not been perfect is all I mean.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    I understand that, but it's still off...doesn't matter why.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I told you why I doubted the magnitude...had nothing to do with a desire for cold.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    65-72 was -AMO, I believe.....we were in a dry pattern in the NE bc we had MC forcing for the better part of a decade. ..I would not go dry this year.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Makes sense because it's also been too far west, along with everything else...just less so. I'm just saying, it may very well have been best, but it's not perfect.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    My latest call as of Latter September was peak RONI between 3 and 3.2 and 3.4 to 3.6 for ONI during NDJ. One final assessment next week.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Maybe the EURO is doing better than the guidance continuously underestimating El Niño, but it looks like it's been overshooting to me.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm surprised that 1963 and 2002 are there.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    That is a good point....like @LakePaste25said, maybe it just means the extreme anomalies are more relegated to the nation's mid-section.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Do you think that dampens any later season correlations?
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    This ties in will with all of Chuck's research, as well as my analog composite. Now, as I'm sure @forkyfork and @bluewavewith will point out faster than the rate at which the polar ice caps are melting, this doesn't guarantee much in terms of sensible weather...but it is what it is.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Sure, but it's not like the coast would benefit much this early, anyway.....like I said, I think the intrigue is for later in the season. Sometimes major early disruptions predispose the strat to future occurrences later in the season.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I know it sounds cliche, but awful forecasts are the best learning tools....it's all about perspective. You just have to own it and approach with an open mind.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    @forkyforkMy mistake concerning underselling ENSO early on was being focused too much on periodicity given the magnitude of the 2023 event just 3 years ago, but upon gaining a more through appreciation for the impact that the solar cycle on ENSO, I now realize that it was 2023 that was the anomaly given that it occurred near solar max. This event is occurring right in the descending solar wheelhouse. My guess is the magnitude of 2023 was largely the result of CC in that it represented a failed effort to redistribute that warm pool eastward...if at first you don't succeed....
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Everyone who puts themselves out there is going to miss...like he missed last year...some our transparent and honest with ourselves, others not so much.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    For above average snowfall in my area? Certainly...old news.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Owning mistakes and learning from them is more important than flaunting victories. I don't hide from them at all....people value transparency. Thanks.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think we all are punting a cold and snowy December, but it's important to keep it real, too.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I personally couldn't care less if it's +10 or +6...TBH, if it isn't going to snow, give me the former....I just think there is reason to doubt that with all central and eastern Pacific forcing.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    There is also no antecedent airmass to work with this early in the season.
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