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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    .19" on the day here....so spitting.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Wow..
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Put mine up last week.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    I still feel the same way I did earlier this summer....the only real difference is it's more east-based than I expected, but I have said all along I didn't think Modoki index would matter much the year, though I still expect it to leak westward post-peak.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    When in doubt regarding the impact of CC, expect a generally warmer outcome with greater volatility. Certain trolls are only going to focus on the first part, which neglects the crucial second part which will make or break seasonal forecasts and dictate how a winter will be remembered.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    it's not going to be all winter, it's going to be the majority of the winter.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    No one mentions this part...
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    2016 looks okay for Feb....
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Going on strictly VP, nothing compares.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I can't find a match to this, though. 1997 is closest....
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I can't find an analog that has forcing as expansive throughout the tropical Pacific during the month of December as this year is forecast.....1983 looks like a good match for January, as it begins to erode a bit on the eastern flank...the image below is reflective of VP on the color scheme, with the contour representing precip rate to really hone in on the best forcing.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    CC is a nutshell...yes, the days are obviously warming, but it's more pronounced at night.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Pretty sure that very cold run isn't happening.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, this is what I was getting at....maybe it won't be pretty, but it will be a +PNA.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, me, too....but there is no way the EURO will be too warm under that ridge...the pattern in this era of accelerated CC, the correction vector for seasonal guidance has been warmer underneath the ridges, which is why I was saying that...it's not some random, arbitrary guess. The model doesn't have much of a shot of busting cold anywhere nowadays, and if it does, it isn't going to under the ridge.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I will bet anyone $5,000 right now that DJFM will average +PNA....now, maybe guidance overdoes it, or the placement/orientation is less than ideal...different argument.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Completely agree, which is why my preliminary assessment of the extra tropical Pacific holds it near neutral.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    One thing I am really starting to hone in on as we get closer to go-time is the split forcing that is prevalent until Feb, when the east-basin backs off a bit....but everything about this season screams "bipolar".
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Like I told you before, it's not going to be too warm under the ridge, which will be over se Canada this year...it was over the SW US the past two seasons. Apples and oranges to compare it this year.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would argue that it's a bit of a net positive, but nor argument that it's not anywhere approaching comensurate with the magnitude of El Niño.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    It should.....the main argument against a better expression of El Nino is the CC enhanced MC regime destructively interfering, but I don't think anyone would argue that the S Hem isn't experiencing CC, as well.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Same people bitching about the two weeks of rain would be panicking about how we aren't seeing coastals start to show in the lead up to winter.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looks a lot like it save for the deep se/FL.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Take...bring it.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would say it's a tic worse than 1957, though due to the orientation of the GOA low, as it's more elongated towards the Bering sea, as opposed to poleward in the direction of AK in 1957. Would need to see monthlies to confirm, but given the expected retrogression of that low during the evolution of the season, that is likely a limiting factor with respect to periods of cross polar flow during the second half....so news flash, second half probably won't be as good as 1958...no $hit-
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