40/70 Benchmark

No argument here.

Def. somewhat less snowfall than I expected to this point....was referencing the pattern.

Absolutely. You've done a good job this month.

Get that mid-month signal into the weekend and I'll start writing.

No, you won't. One warning event in February and a big early March coastal. Only thing NOT going for me is my snow total so far....about the same as you.

Thanks, man...will probably reference this in the February preview to buttress my pre-season work.

Precisely as planned AFAIC....only wrinkle so far has been the huge -WPO ridge making December even colder than thought.

I have noticed ice on certain surfaces even just above freezing at certain points this season given all of the cold that has been around....

It was pretty icy in my area...28 and raining moderately when I left. 2 hour delay for school. My side street was slippery, but main roads fine. Snow is now encased. 29.8 now.

1000mb mean pressure at this range is actually pretty significant.

Does anyone have that literature concerning 6-7 MJO pulse triggering a SSW?? I would like to view that....wasn't aware, but it's so neat that I came to that same conclusion on the Feb SSW using alternative methodology.

My response to the "there must be a very warm month imminent because of CC" is this....the NE has been by far the warmest quadrant of the country over the past decade, so TBH, it should not be a surprise that this has started to reverse over the past 1.5 winter seasons. I understand the implication of the west warm pool in forcing that type of pattern modulation, but I have always posited that mother nature will manufacture a way to maintain some semblance of an equilibrium moving forward, and it seems as though we have started to see that. I do expect snowfall to follow suite sooner rather than later, whether that be this year or in subsequent seasons.

2001 and 2023 are also analogs. Does this guarantee a big come back in terms of snow? Nope...maybe we still get boned, but what I can tell you is that there isn't going to be some exotic +7 monthly departure in February just because the first half of winter was cold. I am pretty confident in that SSW, but IF that fails...then I could see a very warm March...but doubtful. February is not going to be very warm in the mean...maybe it ends up like January only in reverse order (cold start, warm up later as the strat does it's thing), but it won't be a lost cause.

This x1,000,000.

It's not logic at all.....it's fear-mongering neurosis triggered by unsavory weather outcomes of the past.

Don't write off early March as a potential prime KU target period....I also can see something pretty substantial in early February.

28.4 Had a coating of snow earlier this evening...just overcast now.

Yea, just don't allow that to lull you into a false sense of security concerning a warm February and early finish. It's not over...barely started.

I ended up nailing that stretch after the cold-scare. My PNA call for the month is more precarious, though...we'll see. I would have made the same call again given the data at my disposal last fall.

Always something....

I have a dad-bod...but all of my labwork and BP are pristine at 45 years of age. Secret is weight training.

If you do really wan to push the "La Nina is dead" narrative, Feb 2013 maybe a higher end analog that is achievable.....I almost included it in my February list.

Not really...I'd rather that circle shifted about 200 miles west.