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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'll have a blog update within the next few days, followed by an ENSO update next week.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I've come up with 6 Solar analogs and 5/6 averaged positive NAO in the seasonal mean (one was very slightly negative), 3/6 had at least one month between DJFM that averaged -NAO and it looks as though the strongest signal is March. My money is on Chuck's formula shifting more positive from here on out, but I don't expect it to be an overwhelming signal, like last year.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Thanks
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, the heat in the Pacific is going to be the main driver one way or another this winter for sure.....agree on that.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I could see the mean being more like 140W, but either is reasonable.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm beginning my work on the polar domain, as far as solar, QBO, Atlantic subsurface (with help from Chuck) and ENSO considerations....I should have a more definitive stance by next week.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I highly doubt we see as much MC interference as 2023, and while I am not yet convinced that there will be less than 2015, I am certainly open to the idea.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, it's clearly BOSS in the tropics...just need to get that into the mid latitudes, which it ultimately will with any luck.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Hey @Stormchaserchuck1, what is the calculation of your NAO index right now?
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I woke up to wet ground, so creeped into N fringe of MA.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agreed.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I am speaking in the present....I agree there is a chance that this one can become a more prominent hemispheric driver, but we aren't there yet. This is all I meant on Sunday when I Said El Nino still had work to do.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    The influence of ENSO, especially warm ENSO, is more geographically restricted now and more largely relegated to the tropics, regardless of it's intensity. Powerful events are more influential....in the tropics. However, the mid latitudes are now more dictated by these marine heat waves and expanding ridges. I get what Adam is saying....this El Nino is a powerhouse, but it's just that it's more the scope of Andrew rather than Katrina.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Exactly what I was getting at the past couple of days...pattern resembles La Nina right now. In the past, this would imply a flaw in the development of El Nino, whether it be weak and/or poorly coupled. However, that is not necessarily the case in our modern climate. Powerful, well coupled warm ENSO and cold phase Pacific are no longer mutually exclusive due to the degree of heat that is now stored in the Pacific basin. ENSO simply isn't as prominent a driver anymore because it's partially offset and this is what RONI tries to convey. I think Adam perceived this as me saying that El Nino isn't as well developed as most think, but that is not at all the case. It's just facing more prominent competition from around the hemisphere relative to it's predecessors.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    If possible, 1941-1970 and 1961-1980 would be ideal.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, we aren't getting a "high-end" season with an El Nino that potent even if everything worked out perfectly...just too great a volume of Miller A systems. I will bet anything that the signature storm of the season will jackpot the mid atlantic...maybe we still get slammed, but to a lesser extent. Our ceiling this season is normal to maybe about 10-12" above normal snowfall....like 1965-1966. But odds strongly favor less than that.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Appreciate that...no worries at all. We're all very passionate about the weather.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Solar-nape season ends in 4 weeks.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is what I was trying to get across to Adam. Like I have been saying, this isn't something I want, so it's not out of bias. @bluewave can tell you how I resistant I was to the idea in the lead up to 2023...I mocked him and made light of it, and the dude nailed it. No harm in getting it wrong....we all do, just learn from it and be willing to adapt.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Clearly this will be one of, if not the most powerful El Niño events on record. I was never debating that, but all I meant earlier is that it's fair to wonder if some of these marine heat waves that are a consequence of a rapidly warming planet are providing stronger competition around the hemisphere with even the strongest of ENSO events. It seems clear to me that they are. It's not a matter of "El Niño isn't well enough coupled or strong enough"; there is simply a lot more heat distributed throughout the Pacific basin, regardless of what ENSO does.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    https://www.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/figures/db_hist_mon_tcc.html You can get VP here...
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    1982?
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    2015-2016 has been referenced quite frequently for it's pretty abrupt transition to some wintry interludes throughout the NE during the second half...I wouldn't say they aren't remembered. It's just that they weren't as anomalous or long-lasting as the warmth in December, so the season was mild in the aggregate. I wouldn't be at all be surprised to see something similar this year.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Exactly.
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