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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Interested to see what 12z looks like. I am with John....my initial instinct was no, but it's not impossible and could still go either way. The ridge has moved slightly WEST and amplified since I indicated I was against it, so it looks better now. I originally thought maybe 25% shot, now I would agree it's like 50/50.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, Scott...Fri night is a SWFE...exactly what that is.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Elaborate?
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    That would have a crazy deform-band...someone would be having a snow-thundergasm.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Funny how there is just a grave yard of Pacific disturbances amassing underneath that little block.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, that's blatant plagiarism of the KU cookbook.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is why 2018 and 2023 are both valid analogs, despite each invoking drastically different reactions from CoastalWx!!
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Remember all year I was saying I think it will be like March 2023 with a little more help...case in point. While the pattern is redolent of that particular latter season stanza, the Pacific troughing is not quite as deleterious to winter prospects in this case because it's not as extreme and is accompanied by a favorable PV positioning.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Undoubtedly related.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    That little block south of James Bay is really saving our bacon during a bonafide Pacific trough onslaught.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    EURO is the least impressive in general with the two follow up potentials.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm not trying to imply that it will necessarily rival that stretch on a per inch basis, but I think it does help to validate the use of that season as an upper tier analog. That was a very anomalous period.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    You are a bit better off being further west because it's attenuating as it comes eastward. 06z EURO ticked back N a bit, at least.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    First event is at risk of sliding just south of me.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not sure how that invalidates the analog.....potential light-moderate-major trifecta is close enough for me.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Jesus, 3 systems? I'm overwhelmed with blog overload. I haven't experienced this since...oh, IDK....March 2018??
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Geez, not often my area is the cool spot.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    My P&C is 35...must be missing something.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Potential for a March 2001 type run (I just mean activity level, not meant to trigger).
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    GEFS AI looks outstanding....BM EPS AI OTS.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    GFS AI tracks over @Typhoon Tipand the EURO AI still a graze....so some detes to work out.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    GEFS seem to focus more on Saturday then the Monday deal? One of them probably goes bye-bye if there is to be a big event.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Neurodiversity and acne doesn't help, either.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Nah, ironically enough it's the dearth of an ego that has allowed me to improve the past few years....failure is instructive if you own it.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    THIS is what I want to see to get in on this....if this is real, and other guidance follows suite, I'm in.
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