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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't agree with a -PNA winter season.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, but that doesn't render them worthless...rather it's incumbent on a quality seasonal forecaster to apply the necessary modifcations.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Everything @snowman19is pointing out about the magnitude of this event is spot-on, which is why there is hope that the pattern over the N Hemisphere grows more redolent of warm ENSO as we approach boreal winter.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Absolutely....basically what I am intimating. I am not discounting that at all.....just pointing out we aren't there yet.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Buy.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Modern climate seems to have more of a disconnect between the mid latitudes and tropics, which would obviously impact the summer more, when the signals are weaker at baseline....perhaps this will change as we get into the fall given the magnitude of ENSO.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    MJO was rather diffuse for the most part in July 1991, but notice the only appreciable amplitude was in the MC on the 7th-8th (phase 4) and...19th-22nd (phase 7) https://www.bom.gov.au/clim_data/IDCKGEM000/rmm.74toRealtime.txt This July, we are also getting huge amplitude in phase 8, but doesn't seem to matter.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Another -PDO season.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, all I need to see. This is what ultimately matters, so IMHO, you (collective) can shove all of the OLR, VP and MJO plots......we are having a cool ENSO July. Not what I want, but it is what it is.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    MJO isn't always the best tool because it doesn't show split forcing...check the Homollover (sp?) Anyway, the ridging this month in the NE has not been El Niño like....sure, you could blame the lack of correlation in the summer, but most other developing intense Nino events did not have it, and this one is developing faster. I think it's also important to mix in actual observations with the array or tools.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, both can be true.....Nino is epic in the tropics, but we still have some MC competition in mid latitudes.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    I am getting a great deal of consensus from an early stage just like I did last season, which proved pretty damn accurate. My polar domain assessment should be ready hopefully before the weekend. It's taken a bit longer than I had hoped, which is par for the course if you're doing it right.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I hate the heat, but the humidity is no prize, either....but I expect that in August...by far the most humid month, while July is hottest. It's the inverse of the winter, when January is coldest, but February is snowiest. at least here on the east coast.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, this is confirming that the tropics are 100% in El Nino mode, but I await more evidence that the mid latitudes are.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Nope, literal- question mark was confusing, I guess. My bad-
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree...what I said. lol
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I love Chuck's formula, but I am skeptical of it this year with that signal.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Guessing Feb 2015 was the one top-ten coldest. I wish we would focus a bit more on temp maxes instead of mean because I feel like the nocturnal element does inflate the degree of impact somewhat. I don't really care if its 21 on RAD nights instead of 18....I care how warm it is during the day and when it's precipitating. Don't get me wrong....I know it's warming, I'm not trying to steal anyone's climate change, but it's warming the most on clear nights and the days/stormy nights are most relevant to us.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think it's important to be mindful of both if you are genuinely interested in the weather and especially if you forecast. It's important to take CC into account in forecasts, so it helps to be in tune with the rate at which it continues to progress, regardless of whether the NE CONUS was in a pocket of colder air last season. It important to keep everything in context...that said, it was refreshing to confirm that CC is not prohibitive to good NE winters.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    It seems that NAO is far more malleable and influenced by the solar cycle and ENSO than the AO, so I feel strongly that the AO will be lower than the NAO this season.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, I do see an opportunity for some of that, but I'm speaking of the seasonal mean. It clearly will not be the predominate DJFM pattern.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Notice 1997-1998 didn't have a big +NAO? It occurred during ascending solar, not too far removed from solar min....not to mention -QBO.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    @Stormchaserchuck1, I think I know why the connection between intense El Niño and +NAO seems overstated....the causation for the +NAO during intense El Niño is likely more due to higher-end El Niño being favored during descending solar/peak geomagnetic energy, rather then the intense El Nino itself. Descending solar/high geomagnetic is the actual "smoking-gun" behind the +NAO causation, however, intense El Niño with all of that warmth leaking east does inhibit -NAO, I'm sure. The combo together is lethal if you're hoping for big blocking. https://www.issibern.ch/teams/interplanetarydisturb/wp-content/uploads/sites/14/2015/01/Asikainen_03_2014.pdf
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Highly doubt that persists through winter.
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