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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Wow, cool...so it's more precise then simply viewing a VP or OLR composite. Is the latest data behind a paywall? I'd love to incorporate that...
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    What is ELI?
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    That looks like the east-based/intense composite forcing, but more expansive both to the east (into S America) AND to the west (towards Dateline). Supports what raindance and I were mentioning RE volatility, albeit a mild national temp in the mean (warmth more anomalous and greater residence than cold) this winter.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Tempest sounds like Ambient. I have a separate Stratus rain gage that I use....tipping gage always clogs no matter which station you use.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    That is baseline for the QBO.....it's an oddity when it remains in the same phase for consecutive years.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not much value in a 35-60" range, which is why you shouldn't bother to issue a seasonal snowfall map in July.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I had a Davis VP 2 years ago, as well.....agree that the maintenance is cumbersome and the data interface is not very user-friendly. Ambient is a nice alternative....not a huge step down in terms of accuracy and much less of a PIA. I've had it for about 7-8 years.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Def. agree with raindance on volatility....probably going to be a potpourri of east-based, Modoki and MC forcing, with less emphasis on that latter relative to the past decade.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Probably a better shot than most of the past decade to be perfectly honest...it's been dry as hell.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    This season will definitely average +PNA and probably safely so. I think we get an RNA month, it may be December.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think we are going to see wall-wall -PNA.... I agree the polar domain will be crucial.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    -EPO/-WPO is usually tough to come by in super El Niño events.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    John, check out my update from last month.....really hits on what you are eluding to. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/06/forecast-intense-el-nino-potential.html I think we are going to maintain about. a.5 delta between the ONI and RONI, which would continue to denote some MC competition with El Niño.....less so than 2023, but perhaps similar if not more than 2015. Guidance tries to push back against that idea, but I'll believe it when I see it....they have done a very poor job with that throughout the past decade, usually erroneously modding in favor of stock ENSO.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think a strong -NAO signal from the North Atlantic would be a real feather in the cap of the 1957, 1965. 1986 camps....even 2009.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Some of the modeling may have rushed it a bit, but this El Niño is still ahead of any other on record.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Should be an interesting forecast for the polar domain this season....on the one hand, it looks pretty definitive that we at least aren't headed towards a strongly +NAO per the N ATL formula, which would be huge because that is game-over in an El Niño of this magnitude. On the other hand, we are now into the portion of the solar cycle that is very hostile to high latitude blocking. Descending solar 2-4 years removed from solar max is strongly supportive of +NAO as geomag peaks given the lag from solar flux. That said, my early solar analogs are not devoid of blocking, so my hunch continues to be some fun and games during the second half after a tepid first half. The key to increased confidence would be getting a -WPO (neutralish) signal, a la 1982...more on that later this season. I will of course draft all of this out complete with visuals to elucidate my thoughts in vivid detail later this fall. If we can avoid a strongly +NAO/WPO, then we should be okay.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I just looked back at that section of my publication from last fall. I think if we hold it for another month, we should be good.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    No....Boxing Day was very frustrating...it was an occluded, shredded mess....great banding was back in the tri- state area.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    If I ever witness another Feb 2010, I'll go @snowman19
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    We are what, about 60% of the way through your May-Aug period?
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, thank you.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Raindance has stated that -AMO could lead to a cold winter for the country.....I'm not saying there isn't any truth to that, it's just that that site tends to seeks out avenues to cold IMO.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Just be careful with that severe-weather-weenie site.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    We probably need something like this to reconfigure the Pacific, even if it means this coming season sucks, of which I am not convinced..
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    .94"
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