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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think it's a no-brainer to take the under on last year....odds are two La Nina seasons with a deeply -PDO will feature an extremely +PNA.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    This doesn't mean you should book 70" of snowfall at LGA.....but it is what it is. The PNA should be just south of neutral in the DM mean.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    And I agree, as it was strongly positive last year, but I don't think it will be strongly negative this season.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, the PDO and PNA part ways relatively frequently, as was the case last season. This is probably why the PNA in many of my analogs isn't as negative as you seem to think.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Don't get me wrong....I try to be pretty objective and back you up on plenty of takes, but you seem to be reaching here to eliminate that season from consideration altogether. The MEI hasn't been update since May, so perhaps you are mistaken. The RONI is -.40 and rising....
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    2014 peaked at .52 RONI. I don't see it getting below -1.0 this season. MEI peaked at -0.5....They haven't updated since AM, but I can't imagine that is going to get much lower than the RONI.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Negligible. I seem to recall you questioning whether there was a discernible difference between ENSO neutral and weak La Nina when people were questioning whether this would become an official La Nina....is that particular take context dependent?
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't necessarily agree with this. Its a good polar and ENSO analog.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    1.17".
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    So doesn't Miami...what is the value of that perfunctory assessment? The volume disparity makes it silly to compare. When you put things into respective regarding how anomalous the prior decade was in the opposite direction, the current drought is still largely regression attibutable. I know my 10 year average just slipped blow normal this past year....but frustrating, nonetheless.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    In fairness, that isn't too rare in major nor' easters. It wasn't a huge deal.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, this is what I was referring to.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, I'm not necessarily arguing for a wholescale pattern change....just a rising PDO that will be somewhat less negative.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I lost my mind with Edouard....I was a HS kid and didn't know any better. I was so excited and ended up absolutely despondent.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    One thing I have learned is to always assume a harder recurve with respect to systems paralleling the coast, UNLESS there is a patently obvious reason not to, such as vigorous ULL absorbing the system....which are exceptionally rare occurences. This is why major NE strikes are so exceedingly rare.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Noone was, unless you lived in a vessel ouside of the BM. I have lived in NE my entire life, though. I remember all of the hype for what ended up being yet another wide-right.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think it will come as close to New England as Edouard did.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    This one has never been much of a US threat.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Small sample size...look back long term and winter is clearly the path of least regret for weather enthusiasts in these parts.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree concerning those land features. This was never much of a concern for the US IMHO.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    I will confidnetly bet against the PDO returning to those levels during the upcoming cold season.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Everything that I am looking at says an extreme/ record PDO at this time of year is gong to elevate percipitously as we head into winter, which isn't a shock...one direction in which to go. Obviously it will be negative this winter.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm sitting this one out regardless due to an impending trip to Africa, but I do not foresee a big US threat.
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