Jump to content

40/70 Benchmark

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    78,624

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, one very good month is my thinking...maybe another averageish month if things break right.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I am not...at least not at this point in life. My focus is pretty concentrated around SNE snowfall and US cane threats. If the highlight of this winter is severe threats down south, my post count will be considerably lower than usual.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    What does ENSO state have to do with it? We know guidance has yet to catch up to the intensity of modern ridges because we just witnessed it last winter out west. ENSO state plays a role in dictating where the under-modeled ridging will set up, but it doesn't alter the fact that it is consistently under modeled. The whole "show me update data every season" is a cop out IMHO...the sky is blue, and I don't need data...either look upwards and check Google.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, this.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    He's saying that ridging is underestimated in this modern era, so where ever ridging is denoted, it's highly likely that seasonal guidance will be too cold and low with heights in that area...regardless of where it is.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I get what you are saying...there is some hyperbole going on, but I also think that you should be a bit more measured with respect to your own tone, as well....while the position of that GOA low is more redolent of the stronger composite than the weak data set, it's also not very representative of the east-based composite, either. I would expect that the season would cool down beyond December extrapolating out. Weaker (left) vs Stronger (right) Modoki (Left), Basin-Wide (Center) vs East-Based (Right)
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Frankly, I hope you're right bc a record canonical El Niño is theoretically better for east coast winter enthusiasts than a hybrid MC oriented event. That being said, I'm not ready to bite off on that yet.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Main take away for me is it seems to be more characteristic of warm ENSO than 2023 was....granted it's probably still underestimating the MC competition, but the point is it's less than 2023, which is what I have been figuring. I don't think this winter will be as warm as 2023 in the east and I feel pretty good about saying that.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Obviously we aren't near peak in early July...goes without saying.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    That sounds fair....may actually help December to avoid being quite as exotically warm given somewhat less MC competition.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not where I am...it was an utter abomination....but I realize we could have easily had much more snow. The warmth is what it is.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    March hasn't seen the north Pacific flip that boreal winter has over the past couple of years...it keeps reverting to +WPO. Like I said before, this isn't ALL a product of CC, but I'm sure it helps.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I didn't have the data in front of me...I just meant it should be pretty warm. Maybe +6 instead of +13, sure.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Eventually it's going to happen...sure, the return rate maybe decreasing, but it will happen.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    (Saunters purposefully into oncoming traffic) Do we have an emoji for that?
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, it will be better, but the question is how much better...as Chris says.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    I expect something similar temp wise, but snowfall in the higher terrain of northern New England is still a bit of a wild card. Not a pretty look overall for December, though.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    December 1995, 2009 and 2013 were pretty cold, but by and large, you are correct. December 2005, 2007 and 2008 were normalish...
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    If this sticks, which I feel like it may, we probably pull of a serviceable snowfall season next year....albeit mild.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    I do think we have changed to a better north Pacific pattern.....seem to have flipped from predominately +WPO for many years to more negative the past couple.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, makes sense. I think some of that is just natural variation, but it is undoubtedly augmented by CC eroding the the bookends of the cold season. I'm sure it's not happening as fast as could be inferred by the contrast between those two decades, though...my money is on a better decade for the month of March during the 2030's relative to the 2020s.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, I understand that...most winter seasonal considerations don't. I only do because it's a large part of the snowfall season around here...well, historically, anyway...not so much this decade.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    1982 is actually the only super El Niño to average barely -WPO DJFM (-.17)....probably largely why it's the only one in which my area pulled off normal snowfall. December was very strongly +, then January was about neutral before the bottom dropped out. Good Analog IMO. 1982 1.42 1983 -0.05 -0.89 -1.14
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Why would you measure anomalies from decades ago with present day climo? I use the appropriate climo period for all of my analogs...H5 and temps.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I have already said I think it may be colder than 2015-2016, just not cold.
×
×
  • Create New...