40/70 Benchmark

I think we all would take anything over MC forcing, which is the worst.....another thing to think about is if this El Nino is strong enough to pull all of the forcing east, as Chris seems to imply, then that would eradicate any MC influence....which he has stated in the past has acted to accentuate the warmth in recent El Nino events relative to past events, so this season could end up a bit cooler due to that....lots to think about. A bit of MC influence could leak into central forcing, but not east.

No doubt...the issue is whether it will be virtually all eastern Pacific, or some intervals of central Pacific influence will be at play.

I don't know how you can emphatically cite how much MC influence there was in 2023, then dismiss any influence of the central basin this season....yes, El Nino is stronger, but it's not omnipotent, as evidenced by the PDO resistance owed to the Japanese warm pool. Anyway, we'll see what happens....good chatting, as always.

You mean 1.2? I just showed you the precip anomalies....they are higher in region 3.4 than in regions 3 and 1.2. I do agree that the forcing is sheared due to the warmth on the eastern flank of ENSO, but it's not as large of an area as the central node of warmth. Again, all I am arguing for is a nice stretch mid season when that central area takes hold....not a 2002-2003 or 2009-2010 like outcome.

Let me be clear....I agree with Chris that this season will be east-based as far as temp anomalies...warmth will be more prevalent; I'm just arguing that there will be some favorable windows during the 2nd half. I'm not arguing for a Modoki season or anything.

These longitudes are all in 3.4, BTW...should have placed the ENSO regions on here. I will go back to do so in my blog. Big thanks to @BlizzardWxfor making all of these features available on Satellitewx.com. https://satellitewx.com/

I'm not arguing that the season will look east-based in the mean in terms of sensible weather, but I think there will be greater variability than the typical east-based season for the reasons stated.

Well, you have the SST anomaly map....if you look at absolute SSTs, the 30C+ waters are mainly relegated to the central Pacific. I believe you have stated in the past that bc of CC we have crossed a critical threshold whereas convective forcing is now dictated more by there the SSTs in excess of 30C are as opposed to the greatest anomalies. This seems to have proven prescient based on where guidance is placing the most pervasive convective forcing. Yes, I agree on the split forcing.....this is the competing convection between the warm pool and ENSO. I feel it will be weighted more towards ENSO early, and flip to more warm pool guided for a time mid season into February. If you look at the modeled rainfall rates, they actually favor the central convection. Perhaps the most prominent impact of climate change is the battle royale that is constantly waged between a plethora of competing sources of convective forcing given the unprecedented degree of heat that is stored in the oceans as the climate continues to warm at an accelerating rate. Winter 2026-2027 is poised to provide those on the east coast with a front row seat to the main card match facilitated by an immense barrage of WWBs between two juggernaut sources of convective forcing in the record El Niño and central-based warm pool. An examination of the convective forcing via equatorial precipitation anomalies throughout the eastern and Pacific basin yields a similar story to that of the velocity potential. The axis of heaviest convection is located furthered east in December when El Nino, at 155 degrees longitude, while El Niño is most prominent in that battle for convective proxy. It shifts westward to approximately 163 degrees longitude in January, as the central mode becomes a bit more dominant around the midway point of the season. And continues to hold fairly steady at around 162-163 degrees longitude throughout the month of February. This 155-160 mean position of the sheared convective axis as a result of the two competing centers is consistent with both the 1982-1983 (left) analog, as well as the basin-wide composite (right). The 1982-1983 season is rapidly distinguishing itself from other analogs due to its' similarities to a unique set of circumstances that play a crucial role in dictating exactly how this winter season ultimately evolves. These factors include the ultimate peak intensity of El Niño, considerations that impact the behavior of the polar domain, such as the solar cycle and state of the stratosphere, in addition to the precise evolution or El Niño that will be so critical to its' interaction with the central Pacific warm pool that will dictate how convective forcing influences our sensible weather.

My theory on why 1997 occurred where it did in the solar cycle is that it was Earth's response to the early acceleration of CC.

I think this season will feature late blocking via wave reflection rather than a SSW given the combination of descending solar and W QBO, but the strong signal among guidance (likely overstated) in conjunction with the strong match to 1983 buttresses this postulation....all of this in conjunction with the locale of the warm pool in the central Pacific renders any westward propagation of ENSO merely a constructive interference bonus of sorts, but not a requisite development.

Expounding on this point....December 1997 in one of the most intense, east-based El Nino events in recorded history, yet had a decent -NAO. Why? Take a look at where 1997 occurs in the solar cycle (left side of chart) in conjunction with a strong easterly QBO....your overreliance on ENSO as a modulator of the NAO is too reductive here, Chris. Now check where 2026 falls... And every other super-El Nino.... Why is blocking favored GENERALLY earlier during E QBO and later during W QBO? Holton-Tans relationship. Integrating Solar & QBO Research for a Comprehensive Polar Forecast The aforementioned Holton-Tan relationship, which dictates that an easterly QBO is correlated with both a greater incidence of, and an earlier development of SSW, becomes more complicated when considering the solar cycle. In some cases, when the QBO and solar cycle are in conflict, they can either over ride one another or even cancel each other out (Gray et al 2004). Here is a list of combinations and the theorized relationships for clarity. Solar min/W QBO: This is entirely consistent with the Holton-Tan relationship in that the westerly QBO essentially "wins". Solar max/W QBO: In this case, the Holton-Tan relationship is applicable early on in the season, as major warmings are unlikely. However, the Holton-Tan relationship reverses mid winter and the latter portion of the season from February onward is susceptible to warmings and major PV disruption. Winter 2024-2025 was a textbook example of this. Since winter 2026-2027 will occur in the descending phase between the max of solar cycle 25 and the min that will occur early next decade, each of these previous two scenarios warrant consideration with a preference for the former, solar min/W QBO data set given the geomagnetic energy is will likely be peaking during break winter 2026-2027, thus any SSW will likely be delayed until latter February, or more likely a final waring in March. This does NOT necessarily preclude the incidence of minor warming and/or tropospheric wave breaking earlier, though. Solar Min/E QBO: There are no inconsistencies here, as the entire season is more prone to polar vortex disruptions and SSW as per the Holton-Tan relationship. Solar Max/E QBO : The Holton-Tan relationship applies early on given that PV disruptions are likely in December, before the relationship reverses and they are less likely later in the season. The final warming is of course the exception to this rule, while it is usually more relevant for spring, it can and does sometimes occur early enough to have an impact for the major population centers in terms of late season cold and/or snowfall. Below are a couple of annotations to aide in the simplification and visualization of these relationships.

Yes, but you keep neglecting the fact that did in fact begin severely east-based. No, the stratospheric conditions were different due to the QBO (west this year and 1982, east in 1997) and the solar cycle (high and descending this year and 1982 versus low and ascending in 1997), not ENSO. I think there is some connection between ENSO and the solar cycle on a larger scale, which is why the most intense El Nino events usually coincide with descending solar, post max, but it's more solar driving ENSO, not vice versa ENSO orientation does have some direct impact on the NAO, but it's more Modoki that specifically favors -NAO....basin-wide is more variable and depends on other extraneous factors, such as the strat, and solar cycle. No guidance forecasts the warm pool to near the Mexican coast....if you have anything that does, then by all means...present it. Could it make it further east than all guidance currently depicts, sure....not I doubt it's off by that much. Guidance places forcing in a very similar spot to 1983 despite any disparity in the orientation of El Nino in the respective of years bc of where that pool of 30c+ water resides. .

There is a reason why 2023 had MC forcing despite having record anomalies in region 4.....warm pool was in the west Pac. This year, record anomalies are over eastern ENSO, but the warm pool is in the western half of ENSO. Look at where the seasonal models place the forcing...no shock.

1982 was very east-based early in the season, as well. The forecast is more east-based in terms of SSTs mid-season, but I don't know how much that will matter given the warm pool in the central Pacific. A large reason why 1997 was better early and 1982 was better later was the stratosphere.

My guess on Friday before this got going was just under 2" in total here, but I should sneak just over that.

Wow...sharp cut-off around this area over the weekend....I'm not far from MHT at all.

In case there was any doubt as to where the west Pacific warm pool has migrated.....

I would have lost my mind if this were winter. Puts a dent in the drought up here. but definitely doesn't entirely alleviate it.

This is a stronger version of 1982 with the main difference being the warm pool east of Japan, hence the lower PDO....But QBO, solar, east-based super El Nino trying to shift more basin-wide mid season and the secondary 1.2 peak. Elite analog...about as good as it gets.

Repeat of the blizzard...same spots hammered, same spots T-boned. TBH, I'm just fine with expending this bullet from the chamber now, in the early autumn.

1.06" rainfall on the day in Methuen. .58" Saturday, .03" Friday for a 3-day event total of 1.67"

The JJA summer composite was not El Nino like, but August was.

NBD here...pretty boring.

I had .61" event total as of midnight. .03" Friday and .58" yesterday.

Man, Cosgrove sounds aggressive....have 2014 a shoutout.