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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I went 2.4 to 2.6 for a tri monthly RONI peak a few weeks ago...could be a touch conservative, but I find it's best to err on the side of caution when guidance is signaling an unprecedented anomaly. It looked even worse then.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yikes, look out down below, @weathafella
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    At least I shouldn't have to worry about OES lines streaming over se MA...much rather take my chances with slush.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, the EURO was better...but I'm willing to bet that the CANSIPS and JAMSTEC have missed by more than the CFS.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, save the precip regression for when it matters. I understand it's going to be warm...got it, but you def. want to swing the chamber as many times as possible if temps are an issue.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    That season may represent a decent proxy for what next year would look like with a weak El Nino.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Use of sensible weather analogs will pose a unique challenge this year given the rapid state of flux throughout the hemisphere....you can't take them at face value. -EPO predominated Winter 2018-2019, so given that this season should have a +EPO, flipping the anomalies may provide some value. Coolest se, warmest high plains.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    2018 looks like the early leader in the clubhouse.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Time to start compiling a sensible weather analog composite....last one prior to the outlook.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Any insight as to potential windows that are less hostile for the east coast?
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Makes sense since the drop is due to the El Nino being focused east of 3.4 right now, rather then any type of reduced expression of El Nino across the hemisphere
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    You are 100% right as it pertains to the seasonal mean, but I think the trick is to try and focus on when the pattern may stray from said mean. I think that is where the more skilled forecasters have a chance to distinguish themselves. Same thing as if it we have a fall of 2009 type regime....that was a an obvious snow-season for the mid atl leading in, but when are the thaws??
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    @ORH_wxman @CoastalWx Check this site out....nice site for a quick and easy guide on pattern diagnostics. Nothing new to us, but it helps to illustrate when you feel like a pattern is good, bad or ugly.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Cool site...def. adding this to my arsenal. Thanks.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I was never wishing for a lower RONI because given how warm the Pacific basin is, I think that could predispose the hemisphere to residual MC influence in the mid latitudes, as we are still seeing signs of those competing forces despite the magnitude of El Nino.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Absolutely.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Just about all guidance has, but especially the CANSIPS and JAMSTEC....take that data with a grain of salt, as I have been advising all summer.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would say not, but perhaps a bit around P Town.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    That is so odd...I mean, it can help to determine how favorable the set up is for a phase, and/or to come up the coast...but need H5.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Pretty nice look for a time in mid January, as that ridge lists northward for a bit.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    I agree it won't be as warm as 2023, but seasonal guidance will always underestimate huge monthly anomalies. Don't be surprised if we see one.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, to be fair, they never predict the +10 month....they have also been trending warmer.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Why isn't it H5? 200mb is somewhat less helpful.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    48.4 this AM....gorgeous.
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