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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    He is never going to be able to reconcile his version of reality with the fact that he was wrong. I'll tell you exactly what he'll do...he's going to say something to the effect of "see, the storm formed, but it tracked a bit too far east".
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    KA?
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, he has a really unsavory method of communicating.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes. Sell that and punt to the moon.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    This looks like last January failed phase in some respects attempts...not identical pattern. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/02/thursday-storm-threat-by-wayside-as.html
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I find him nauseating....he's always hyper-defensive and I'm quite certain his mid-January storm potential will go down the toilet.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Depends on the pattern, though...I'd give 2014 and 2015 another go-
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right...the PDO is more a reflection of the antecedent pattern that can feedback somewhat if it persists long enough.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Except in terms of the EMI.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes. But it's probably a binary outcome...meaning one or the other.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Warm night time mins can drive up anomalies, which I'm sure you know, is largely how CC manifests.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yay, Windham and Salem, NH will get snow and ice, while it transitions to rain 200 feet north of my door steps.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Oh, I know that....but snowfall if the main reason I do this, so I'm more interest in that, than whether it only drops to 29 at night instead of 27 on average.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I honestly thought we would have done better for snowfall in December...man it was colder and LESS snowy than I thought. Figures-
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I still think we see the +TNH @Krs4Lfe, so I get the 2014 comparison...but devil is in the details.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Ninja.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would need to look at the phases with respect to seasonal intervals, but that may also have to do with why we couldn't buy a storm...usually stormy patterns for AK aren't so great here. The fact that it was early in the season may have allowed for colder conditions out here relative if it had occurred mid/late winter, too....wave lengths and MJO correlations change at different junctures of the season. Again, just a thought...won't look in depth at this until May for the postseason write up.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    All of the good skiing is in AK.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Everyone is whacking it to the cold, but at the end of the day, the MJO still hasn't spent much time in the phases conducive for east coast phasing/major cyclogensis..it's largely been either null and void, or in the MC, which is what I forecast in my outlook. That should improve somewhat later...
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think it's a combination of that AND the predominate MC forcing directing what opportunities for phasing there are, west and east of this region. That MC forcing is a Deconstructive influence on NE US phasing, which overlayed onto the overall trend for less phasing is BAD news for us. I'm confident the MC forcing will shift eventually...it's the overall trend for somewhat less phasing that probably won't. Least of all, there is some bad luck, too...but the majority is more than that.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't mean to imply that a weaker RONI is never good anymore...it absolutely can be, but you have to analyze the ENTIRE hemisphere...especially the western Pacific, in order to contextualize ENSO, and discern what exactly the RONI indicator is trying to convey. It's a forecasting tool intended to bridge the gap between yesterday and today's climate...misuse it at your own peril.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right...it had a weaker expression in the hemisphere because it was partially masked by a competing MC influence, which is NOT favorable.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, read the excerpt I just posted above.
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