40/70 Benchmark

I will be surprised if we don't see a major SSW and full reversal later this season.

2016-2017 lead into another La Nina...not an El Nino. I don't think that really has any value here, aside from the fact that February will often bias the Jan-Feb period warm in the east in a La Nina. 2022-2023 was a deeply +WPO/-PNA season, and I'm quite certain that won't be the case this season. Doesn't mean the second half will necessarily be great, but I don't think much can be gleaned from that particular composite.

All 6 of those seasons finished with a mean DM -WPO, so this season should, too....though we could have a month or two average +WPO, as was the case in 1990. Looks like I am going to be off on the WPO again...it's so tough to forecast. At least I didn't go strongly positive....

I don't think Noyes is a hypster.

I am definitely prone to those negative aspects, but not to this extent.....not looking back at my climo. Now, this spot is hostile to jackpots for the reasons that you have mentioned, yes....but more often than not I get enough to still average over 60". The point I will disagree most with is the SWFE....this area cleaned up in 1970, 2007 and 2008.

I love building a base of my own resources....I sometimes draw upon them when the situation warrants. It's also nice when some douche misquotes me, as I simply copy/paste my actual thoughts in short order.

ONI should def. peak in OND period.

I forget some stuff...especially over the off season. I find myself reading some of my old material to get reacclimated...no better way to reorient yourself with material than having it presented in a way that is uniquely tailored for your own understanding....I am probably best suited to author those works. haha.

I think he was a little tongue-in-cheek with the "winter ends" proclamation, but just my take. Point was that the pattern looks to be subpar for a while.

I don't think my climo has dropped this precipitously for the long-term...maybe it has and I'm wrong, but talk to me in another 6-8 years.

I didn't get that impression...

No doubt...I just do the blog because the writing keeps me sharp.

Every year I get excited to see that the weather will be like around Xmas in the hopes that we'll get something that leave everyone stranded at grandma's, but that hopeful period of blissful ignorance is just about over.

Will has disappeared- You know that that means....

The sequence this December has summed up my climo since 2018....this exact sequence. 12/2 nailed areas JUST to my north....like legit 3-5 miles, then the mid atlantic gets a couple, followed a closer graze that nails southern portions of the region. Now we flip back to a NNE pattern that will focus north of me. Just relentlessly frustrating, aside from maybe 3 days....1/7/2024, 2/1/2021 and 12/6?/2019. I get something from both extremes, so I avoid the cellar seasons that SOP has gotten, but have an unmatched streak of overall futility (7 consecutive seasons of greater than 10" below average and counting).

I'm going to do pattern update blog this week, hopefully tomorrow. Don't expect really any changes from the progression that I laid out on 11/10, just maybe more specific.

Well...snow. You have had a decent amount, and I haven't.

I find myself challenged for time this year because the family is home and I have 4 kids aged 1-6, so sometimes my results will reflect that a bit. Not to make excuses....I still should have trusted my work and stuck to my guns more.

Unreal...early season has gone exactly as I had expected patten progression wise, just colder and LESS snow than I had expected. Make. It. Stop.

This definitely isn't like a ratter pattern and I think the season is over...I still like the season as a whole, but now we enter into a decidedly more unfavorable regime for a rather extended stretch after squanders.

No, not on you....my tone is awful because I'm frustrated. Wasn't clear...

No, I agree front enders are possible....just sucks to be where we are after how cold it has been, and now be relegated to hoping for a couple of inches of slush before it washes away and we add to the snow stake.

I only did one map for this....I def would have went 2-5" down there had I updated Saturday because almost did on Friday....but guidance was awful Friday, I got scared a bit....the 2-4" was still aggressive then.

Yes, I think we will avoid getting shut out next few weeks...couple that with improving climo and the next few weeks will probably still be snowier than the last few.

I know you are into that, but I don't give a rat's ass about the negative departure if it doesn't snow.