40/70 Benchmark

Yes. The thing about this stretch is that it has been consistently subpar, but I have avoided any bottom-dweller seasons.....just also missed out on the couple of decent ones. It's been a strIng of seasons in the 30s and 40s, save for 2020-2021, which barely snuck above 50".

True, I do expect a lot of inland primaries....I could see a slighly below average season, but shouldn't be an abomination at my locale....I don't think.

I don't expect to be strong until towards the new year..."bottoming out" is one thing...

I expect to the PV to beef up around the holidays and then we watch and wait for a January-February SSW.

It doesn't really add up IMO....they have slightly above average precip, normal temps...yet below average snow.

Everytime you post one of these inane click-whores' content, a weenie gets it's bun, and a brain cell dies.

I think the NAO will be okay in Decmber before becoming hostile for mid season, then turns more favorable in February...very much in line with raindance. Gun-to-head picking a single season that mirrors the expected behavior of the NAO, it would be 2022-2023. If you read between the lines, my stance was obvious last summer. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/08/preview-of-polar-domain-for-winter-2025.html

Agreed.

100% same page.

Yes.

I think 2013-2014 is definitely worthy of inclusion as an analog...most notably for it's statospheric reflection events during mid season. It's an awful polar analog...agree there.

No, the pattern has sucked...not arguing that. Bu no luck at all....going to have to disagree, as I often will when anyone speaks in absolutes, at least at this latitude. I had 42.5" in 2021-2022....a good 20" below my longer term average.

I didn't so much better than you....we often have pretty congruent obs.

Luck was still involved in general, as it always is....this is why I finished below average snowfall in each of those seasons, as I have each season since 2018-2019.

There will be some large differences from the 2013-2014 season, but for some reason, only a certain charcter of divergences are being discussed. I don't hear much mention of the fact that this season is likely to feature more high latitude blocking. It's indirectly referenced....ie, the poor QBO match will be offered as evidence against the analog in general, but little analysis elaborates on what that may entail; a weaker PV. And I've seen the research linking the -IDO to reduced coupling between the stratosphere and troposphere, and linking -QBO to reduced poleward ridging. Be that as it may, differences in an of themselves don't necessarily perclude a similar sensible weather outcome after accounting for CC.

Yea, I'm not saying it's a precise overlay...but generally similar....I think January '22 had more of longitudinal element to the gradient...this is more latitude.

This is actually pretty similar to the January 2022 event in terms of QPF distribution...same haves and have nots.

Much needed rain, regardless...but glad this one was a practice run.

Yea, it's going to be raining the majority of the day, but not going to add up to much outside of CJ land and the higher terrain. Very banded, and the bands will favor said areas.

Boxing Day on Columbus Day.

Miller up the Ass.

Don't worry, I'm sure there is another White Juan renactment this winter, on the heels of a primary through Buffalo that offers up a secondary appendage of false hope.

It was already beginning to grow more banded when it got into our area, and especially your's. There was one good initial pulse, and then it lightened up and I knew. The good ones come in like a wall. The rest of this storm will be banded crap.

There are execeptions.... but it's usually not a great sign when the precipitation struggles to get going...aside from a round of showers yesterday AM, it didn't really rain until mid-late evening. Obviously this is crude analysis because I don't dig in and forecast October rain events, but usually the "winners" get going with ease. January 7, 2024 was a great example of that...I got giddy when OES started up ahead of schedule during the day and that one did not dissapoint. Also works for changeover deals....Dec 1992 and March 2018....both instant crash-flips around mid night and off to the races. April 1997....late PM flip-bang. If you're squnting to see precip for hours on end or taking cat paws up the sphincter unlubed for several hours, you'd probably be best served to catch up on sleep and avoid dissapointment.