40/70 Benchmark

February Review: https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/02/latter-january-early-february-display.html The unexpected early month blocking kept it colder than forecast in the east, but the midwest really torched and erased the early-month +TNH signature. Really tough to nail the pattern for the whole season, NVM the timing.

March Preview: https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/02/latter-january-early-february-display.html Looks bad for my preseason forecast right now, but I do thin there is eventually going to be some blocking that isn't being picked up get....the stratospheric zonal wind reversal being delayed has really thrown a wrench into my anticipated timing of the pattern progression...looks like mid March is the shot instead of early month.

How far did this actually track outside of the Benchmark?

I think it was the ENSO subsurface that I liked about 2012, if I recall correctly...

@WinterWolfYou remember when I mused to you last fall about how I almost included 2012-2013 as an analog, but didn't due to ENSO? Ha......there was indeed some value in that season after all. 2014-2015 was actually just about as perfect a QBO/solar analog as you will find....so the manner in which this season has unfolded isn't too surprising, even though I kind of gagged om the monthly composite this month. It's astounding how much you learn through the trial and error of actually doing this seasonals...can't teach that in a class.

My current spot was scooter for that...like 15 mi out.

I would have traded places.

40" can happen inland if you get under the banding long enough...NYS had in VD 2007....many areas in December 2020.

I mean, you still had 2 feet...even I wouldn't have bitched about that.

Tradeoff I am willing to make TBH...give me a decade of shit winters if we get an event like that.

Shit, he'll be whining in March, when I get a lousy, damn 7" SWFE that rains on him.

Well, tell CC I'm about due for my reach around.

Not over IMO.

That is bit too early to be impacted by the reversal...lag time is like 15 days at this juncture.

My KU window was off by like 6 days on the blizzard...was March 1-15.

This was my best outlook to date in the 11 years I have been doing it, but it wasn't perfect by any stretch. There are avenues for improvement that I will discuss in the post season analysis...most notably, I emphasized the thawing PT regimes too much in the composites, so the temp composites were not cold enough....thought H5 was very good. I pretty much nailed the progression of the strat.

Yea, -PNA from here on out, as expected....but that was also the case in March 2018, one of my two main strat analogs, along with 2001. It won't be as cold, but not will it be prohibitive to snow.

Okay, that is recency bias, but they are prone to getting more vicious blizzard than other other locales when they do get them...that is more what I meant.

Jan 2011 was okay where I am...like 20".

I'm ready for spring....45 and drizzle.

Jan 2015 was near my area.....Jan 2011 was more Ginxy...Feb 2013 was Wolfie

Woflie, nothing personal at all, though...I know you are a very intelligent guy having met you. Just still exhausted, frustrated...and very confident that that isn't it.

Just dumb luck......but I will say, your area to Brett to Steve is well situated for extreme events sticking right out into the ocean like that, but a bit off of the coast. Definitely a better situated for extreme events down there. Steve has some sneaky elevation, too...nice spot.

Yea, just going to go with an inch....no way there wasn't some melting and I came home to 1/2" on the pavement.