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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I hope your accordion breaks on stage.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Nah, IDC about that.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I get that...I'm not arguing the semantics of it, all I am saying is that amplification of the MJO in phase 6-7 de-constructively interferes with east coast suppression, which is also true.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Maritime Continent. Lag of 7-10 days from when the storm hits is phase 6, so I don't see how that supports your position that the N trend is unrelated. It was amplified in phase 6 minus 7-10 days from storm impact.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Constructive/deconstructive interference is an impact.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    If there is lag that implies more of an impact bc it's moving out of the MC.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    So close to the vest, as usual...
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's going to have to fly..it was in phase 6 3 days ago.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looks plenty cold up here...
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    MJO has actually really amped up of late. https://www.bom.gov.au/clim_data/IDCKGEM000/rmm.74toRealtime.txt
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's like the pre Xmas 2024 event, but stronger storm and better airmass.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, good call.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I added this after: . (Phase 8) it's become a unicorn since the west Pacific warmed. This is why.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's not impossible....phases are usually flawed and complicated...odds are that it will be imperfect, but probably not in that precise manner given the lead time left. That doesn't have to mean we get a blizzard, though.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I should have checked the MJO before whining about confluence....def my bad on that. I don't look deeply until I blog.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm always leery of predicating any forecast on phase 8 until at minuscule lead time....it's become a unicorn since the west Pacific warmed.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, this is what I have been saying, which is why it's important to get ample mid level dynamics on the interior CP.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think it's more IP/dry slot risk, at least off of the cape...but we aren't quite there yet.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    I will get pounded for this, but I'll take the March 2001 risks as opposed to what was modeled......
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Get to school, junior
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Get outta my head.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    He has, but to TBH, it's a pretty different landscape from what his looked like 2 days ago.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think this is still in flux, but I won't begin my deep dive until tomorrow.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Boris, I kind of feel as though that evolution is akin to an inverted trough in that while it is not physically implausible to be the final outcome, it's more likely to a provisional solution as the model attempts to reconcile previous depictions of the evolution with what will actually happen.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
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