40/70 Benchmark

I'm pretty confident that any huge PV infiltration would knife down through the center of the country, anyway.

Last season I bailed after that big January threat failed. We has one decent stretch in early Feb and that was it. I felt like March was a lost cause dating back to the fall, and I was absolutely correct. It was.

I don't know, ask someone who think it's over-

I think "by January 12th" is aggressive, anyway.

I think 2014/2022/2025 analogs will play a role in January and February, along with 2001...not a bad cast.

Main difference between this year and 2018 is I think there will be much more of a +TNH element to this season to partially shield us from stronger PV intervals...this is what I think saves us for at least the start of February due to the carry over from the second half of January. The cold will be there after the flushing next week. It will get scary with the PAC jet firing and all, but it's temporary.

Still really like 2001 type of progression the rest of the way....the only pause that the 2018 analog gives me is that I do not feel February will be that warm....2022-2023 second half with a better Pacific may also be apt, which could be quite nice. That March would have been lethal with a serviceable Pacific.

This incoming stretch was completely expected, and I still think it will get active beyond mid-month...but man, if this winter ends up disappointing, I'm probably going to start treating winter the way I do the Red Sox cold-stove season....complete and utter disinterest barring something imminent. It's a shame...I used to be so excited, now I just look at off season articles, roll my eyes and keep scrolling. I really thought we would have done better in December. That said, I can totally see a March 2018 type period coming up in the second half. Try to hang in there because it's not over. This season has that 2018-type of profile.

Sucks, because the fantasy snow has been coming to fruition.

Shortest post I've ever seen you make.

Best part of 2025 weatherwise for me was the ball dropping last night.

Squalls went south of me....glad. I ignored the 1/4" on the blog and in real life . Didn't touch the drive way.

I just didn't want lure Wolfie into reiterating how enjoyable it was for him.

I was just preemptively covering myself.

First half is a lost cause, which isn't news to me, but it sucks that most squandered December (I know it was great for CT...I get it).

It's the second week.

Makes more sense to me.

I think that is the first positive feedback I have ever received from you.

Nothing wrong with that.

I doubt PNA goes away again....hopefully I'm right.

Well, in your defense....you have to acknowledge the development of a strong consensus on guidance....that's what I did over the weekend. I rationalized why guidance was potentially doing that as the lack of coupling between the strengthening Strat PV and troposphere, while acknowledging potential colder risks to my forecast. This abandonment of major blocking makes more sense to me, though.

I wouldn't be a surprised to see a day or three like that, but I don't think that will be representative of the majority of the month.

I did't get that from the post of his that I agree with, but figured maybe there was another one that I didn't see.

Yea, latter January should be +NAO/PNA/TNH

Oh, my bad...I didn't see that. I disagree there, as well. I also see cold in the latter half, although probably focused west of here.