40/70 Benchmark

When in doubt, go warm, though...not disputing that. But I'm like that 4th grade math teacher trying to instill the processes of solving long division problem into the class..."make sure you show the work", even if the short-answer could be easily discerned.

Perfect example, RONI and EMI denoted a La Nina that was better established than the traditional ONI would imply, so of some forecasters went warm in the east just based off of that...oops.

Yea, I'm taking about the actual pattern, though....not simply "warm or cold". Obviously warmer is the safe bet....

Eh.....having issued 12 winter seasonal efforts now, I think they still have plenty of utility as long as you make an effort to incorporate climate change into the work. For instance, it's important to understand that what other forces are now competing with ENSO, and the ramifications said forces have on the hemispheric pattern. If you simply interpret a lower RONI as a weaker El Nino and blindly forecast colder because of that....yea, good luck.

Makes that succession of +WPO seasons that we had even more impressive considering we have also had a consistent cool ENSO baseline. No wonder we had such an awful stretch of eastern US winters given that we were ripping off +WPO La Nina events and the strong El Nino that was accompanied by -PDO.

I'm pretty sure we aren't getting a super El Nino.

Yea, this past season already seemed to have behaved more like a +PDO, if anything, despite the continued negative readings.

Chuck, thanks so much. Two questions....I have to assume it's tougher to get the -WPO loading SST pattern ("C") during an El Niño? Secondly, do you have a similar schematic for an EPO correlation? TIA.

My early hunch is it's right, but like I said....we shall see. So, so early...

Do you have an image from this past fall to illustrate how it lead the big -WPO winter?

WPO is the index I have struggled with the most......I went big -WPO winter 2024-2025 and it was EPO instead....this past season I went big -EPO and it was -WPO. N Pac is a PIA.

I remember you telling me about the Indian ocean Aug-Nov being a good indicator of winter WPO...it looked strongly positive all summer and into the fall, before flipping drastically at the last moment. Looked kind of neutralish, but the WPO ended up strongly negative.

This is my point...+PDO doesn't guarantee a cold winter...it merely increases the probability of the warmer west/colder east pattern. If we end up with like a 2.6 event, then it won't matter.

I have no issue with that.....it's why I always like to compare my work with your NAO formula before publishing.

Yes...and maybe that happens and it's still warm, or warm everywhere....too early to entertain that or dispute it.

AGAIN....don't mistake this for me saying it has to be cold in the east next year...not what I am implying.

We just flipped from this: To this: And now a healthy WARM ENSO is going to revert it back?? Shoot me for not buying in instantaneously and having pause-

Agreed, but I doubt we have a -PDO next season, and I'm also not sure it's east-based. The Pacific is changing....I don't think you are going to pull off an appreciable warm ENSO and maintain -PDO. We just saw that two years ago and it isn't happening again...never has.

I'm not arguing for a big winter next year...all I am trying to say is that nothing is set in stone yet. This is why I usually don't get into it this early. You end up defending a hypothetical position that you haven't even taken yet.

I did? Anyway, I'm not willing to delve in any further at this point.

Every other year is the warmest winter on record nationally...I don't see this is a novel concept.

I don't see what it matters if the mean pattern favors a west coast ridge and an east coast trough....that said, it doesn't need to be very cold to salvage a decent snowfall season.

Doesn't have to be west-based necessarily to have that type of outcome.....basin-wide is fair game. That year was also emerging from a persistent -PDO. I've already said I don't expect next winter to be that cold, regardless, but my point is that I don't think a +5F season is a foregone conclusion.

I don't anticipate a super el nino just based on what has happened in the past and where it looks like we're headed...just doesn't fit. My guess is a decent event that is not prohibitive to a good winter...a la 1957 or 2002. Again, just my hunch....I'm not saying a super event can't happen, but considering we just had a super event in 2015, and a very strong and very warm el nino in 2023 as we now begin to emerge from the ongoing Pacific cold phase, I just don't see it. I like 1957 because it is a good QBO fit and decent solar match (albeit closer to solar max) that followed up two Pacific cold phase El nino events. 2002 is a very good solar match and an okay QBO match that also occurred as we emerged from a persistent -PDO.

I would expect more of that this summer...not going to get into summer outlooks because frankly, the interest isn't there and I'd end up fired and divorced...but I think the smart money is on the emergence of a much wetter pattern.