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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Exceptionally strong....I don't argue 1.5-2.0 can be favorable.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Maybe I'm wrong...but until I see data to the contrary, I will feel as though extremely strong ENSO is hostile for high latitude blocking.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right....on average.....exceptionally strong events aren't average.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    No, I'm not "stuck"....what I do know is there is literal dearth of high latitude blocking when ENSO is exceptionally powerful, and I don't think that's a coincidence. Okay, the sample size is small....but it still is what it is.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would prefer it a bit weaker...but I don't doubt we could have had a good interlude(s) if the polar domain were not so hostile. I compare all of these analogs with a fine-tooth comb this summer and fall.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree 100%.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Orientation doesn't matter much for weak events, either.....much more disparity in weak events....ie east-based events that were colder, and west-based that were warmer.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not counting one KU in the mid Atlantic....I mean above average snowfall throughout the NE and colder than average.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think it's a combination of the fact that there is so much excess heat in extreme warm ENSO, and it impacts the Atlantic STJ in such a manner that is very hostile to high latitude blocking. I'd have to look back at the research to double check..been a minute.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I knew you would call sample size Well, once we get a big NE winter with a 2.1+ El Niño, I'll capitulate.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    No argument there....highly doubt it averages negative for the season next year.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm not arguing the pattern doesn't look different....I'm arguing it doesn't really matter if ENSO gets that powerful.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    No, until you find me a +ENSO north of 2.0 that offered a favorable outcome for winter enthusiasts, it's factual.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Most strong El Niño events give you +PNA....excessively strong El Ninio usually has a dearth if high. latitude blocking.....again, not surprising.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    NAO is probably going to be crucial this year, assuming ENSO does remain at or below 2.0, which I believe that it will.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looking a the data, 2.0 is a pretty crucial threshold....you still have a fighting chance until you get over 2.0, then it's lights out. 1957 halted right at 2.0.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't understand why it's so surprising that 1991-1992 was warm because it was such a a powerful El Niño, hardly weaker than 2015. It doesn't matter whether it's east or west when it gets over 2.0. It was significantly more powerful than 2009 and 2002.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Just going by climo...not the depiction. Didn't look.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    My area is likely porked......maybe CT is okay.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, anything is theoretically possible when ENSO isn't overwhelming....because other factors dictate the hemispheric pattern...too early to say just yet.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    First order of business is to determine whether or not El Nino will ultimately grow prohibitively strong.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    It depends....if it gets over 2.0, it doesn't really matter where the anomalies are focused, it's going to torch. I made that mistake in 2015 and won't again.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Mass in general doesn't care....other areas don't get it.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
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