40/70 Benchmark

Yea, someone measured in a drift. I had 18" drifts in my driveway...other spots had 3"...average it out to 10".

Think I gave you my shameful total ... 10".

Too bad...it was so immensely gut-wrenching for me to have history clutched from my grasp at the 11th hour that I just had to disassociate and go to sleep. I would have been physically ill had I remained awake to bare witness to that....it's like the weather god's afforded me the mercy of anesthesia as they disemboweled me. Just absolutely brutal because it would have been like nothing I have ever experienced with widespread 3' amounts. Two in a row now...on the heels of January 2022...I mused about the comparison in the lead up and that's exactly what happened. One consolation is the mayor of Methuen actually DMed to express his appreciation for my posts on social media alerting them as to the magnitude of the impending storm prior to any OCMs. ..just too bad I kind of threw up on myself concerning amounts up this way-

False.

Forecast Verification For Blizzard Of 2026 Lessons Learned From The Great Storm & Forecaster Accountability Cars Submerged By Record 41 Inch Snowfall In Fall River, Mass A Record Final Snowfall Total of 37.9" Was Recorded In Providence, Rhode Island With Upwards of 43" In Tiverton The Eastern Mass Weather identified the March 1-15 period as a favorable period for a major, KU-caliber snowstorm along the east coast in the Winter Outlook issued early last November, as it turns out, history made an appearance six days early. The Eastern Mass Weather Final Call for the recent Blizzard of 2026 was good quantitatively speaking, as 30" or greater snowfall totals were actually anticipated dating back to First Call on Friday. However, as is evident in the final forecast verification posted below, these extremely heavy, all-time record-breaking bands of heavy snowfall ended up materializing south of forecast. The forecast clearly left something to be desired as far as the mesoscale diagnostics of the best deformation banding and there are two primary reasons why. Forecast Neglected Consideration Of Northerly Dry Air Drain Confluence in association with the block over southeastern Canada was part of the reason why Eastern Mass Weather was originally pessimistic one week ago about the prospects of the historic storm making it far enough north to have a major impact on the majority of the forecast area. Although it became evident by Friday that said confluence would indeed retreat enough to allow the blizzard to move up the coast, there was ultimately not enough consideration given to the fact dry air remained perilously close to being entrained into the northern half to the region as the storm materialized. This of course proved to be a major player in eventuality of a large portion of southern New England avoiding the truly crippling snowfall that was observed over much of southeastern Mass and Rhode Island. This negated the forecast rationale of a deep, 850mb layer easterly fetch off of the Atlantic mitigating subsidence zones between bands, resulting in the extension of historic snowfall totals to the eastern slopes of the Worcester hill, Monadnocks and Berkshires. Instead, the dry air was entrained from north, as the system congealed south of New England, and aided in relegating historic snowfall to one prominent deformation band to the southeast. Another forecast rationale was that there would be a secondary band of very heavy snowfall to the north west. Obviously one factor that prevented this secondary area of very heavy snowfall to the northwest was the aforementioned dry air intrusion, but there was also peculiarity in the frontogenic forcing pattern as the blizzard it's explosive deepening phase on approach to the region. Aligned Forcing Restricted Coverage Of Heaviest Snows The term "Fontoegensis" simply refers to the development of an area of changing winds and/or temperatures in the atmosphere. This is the primary mechanism that drives intense precipitation rates in strong coastal systems such as Monday's blizzard. Ordinarily, at last during the developing stages, low pressure systems are tilted southeast to northwest, and thus so are the areas of frontogenesis, with the lower levels (850mb) begin further southeast and the mid level (700mb) further northwest. The forecast rationale for the historic snowfall over the interior was due to a combination of intense 700mb forcing to the northwest, and deep layer feta of moisture in the lower levels off of the Atlantic. Obviously the latter factor was nullified due to the dry air entrainment from the northern stream energy, which also acted to limit the ability to any residual 700mb forcing inland to produce heavy snows. However, indiosyncracies of the blizzard's evolution also dictated that the mid level forcing quickly congealed with the lower level forcing to the southeast, potentially due to not only the system's Uber-fast bombogenesis rate of development, but also the aforementioned drier air to the northwest. Note the strong 700mb frontogeneic forcing along the middle Atlantic coast and into the trip-state area responsible for very heavy snows from Delaware coast up through the tri-state area on Sunday evening. This is the area that was expected to eventually produce very heavy snows over the interior on Monday morning. It did indeed lead to over a foot of snowfall throughout much of Connecticut late Sunday evening into the predawn hours of Monday. However, this area rapidly began to weaken and redevelop southeast during the predawn hours on Monday, eventually congealing with lower level forcing over Cape Cod by dawn. This resulted in one incredibly intense band of snowfall with rates up to 4" per hour that moved onshore and pivoted over southeastern Mass, central-southern Rhode Island and extreme eastern and southeastern Connecticut throughout Monday morning and into the midday hours. Either side of that band there was a pronounced area of what is referred to as "subsidence", or sinking air due to the tremendous upward vertical motion going on in that one uber-intense band. The development of this single band displaced the historic snowfall to the south east, and the dry air to the north ate away at the northern extent of the amounts, which is reflected by the forecasting error. This has some similarities to the January 2022 blizzard The collapse of the northwestern 700mb band was virtually complete by midday on Monday. Barely discernible from the primary area of subsidence just to the east, as a blizzard for the ages paralyzed locales over southeastern Mass and central-southern Rhode Island. The extremely rapid rate of intensification working in conjunction with the encroachment of drier air from northern stream is responsible for the restriction of historic snows to one primary band displaced south and east relative to forecast. This dry air impingement and displacement of the band south and southeast are likely attributable to shift in the expected track of the story after the Final Call map was realized very early on Sunday. Blizzard Tracking South Of Forecast Is No Excuse There is tendency in the meteorological community to passive aggressively shirk responsibility for errant forecasts by arributing said error to "changing data" as opposed to forecaster error. Models change because they are imperfect. This is a 100% "loser's lament" aimed at a deflection of accountability because it is absolutely incumbent on the forecaster to not only anticipate future changes in data, but also use experience to inform discretion when guidance is in error to apply needed corrections. The fact of the matter is that amateur forecasters like myself are especially vulnerable to "changing data" because time is limited with a separate full-time job, four young children and a wife, thus it often impractical to wait until the day of the storm to issue a Final Call given the constraints of life. However, be that as it may, I knew that dry air lurked to the north. I also understood that the pattern was marginally favorable for a close enough approach to allow for a historic impact given my original stance that storm would primarily pass out-to-sea. The fact of the matter is that the storm was projected to pass narrowly inside of the 40/70 Benchmark when the final forecast was issued. However, the track shifted to the southeast by approximately 75 miles to a position outside of the benchmark in the 24 hours leading up the event, which is likely connected to the dry air encroachment to the north. Some forecasters would offer the sentiment that "the forecast is only as good as the data", or "The forecast was bad because the data changed". This is utter nonsense because there is a reason that we have forecasters, and that reason is to detect and anticipate bad, or changing data. If the forecaster has enough data to issue a forecast, then they have enough data to be held accountable for said forecast, just as a pro athlete is considered healthy enough to perform if they are healthy enough to play. The public wants to hear about an injury the Monday morning after a bad game about as much as much as they want to hear about "changing data" after 3 feet of "Partly Sunny". The reality is that sometimes storms go-out-sea, but forecaster accountability should never suffer the same fate. Not for an amateur, and sure as hell not for any "professional". Final Grade: D+

Verification of the great Blizzard of 2026 revealed that the forecast was not as highly skilled was I would have liked, to say the least. I bought into historic snowfall totals too far to the northwest, despite some glaring red flags that ended up biting me harder than my 1 year old daughter. Most notably, the track kept shifting south after I pulled the trigger early Sunday. That said, what you will not hear from an amateur like myself, is the garbage excuse of "changing data", "missing data" or "bad data" that you get from far too many "professional social mediaologists"....this is the equivalent of all of the injuries you hear about after the team gets it's face ripped off in the Super Bowl. That said, I was able to put that behind me to enjoy the spoils of a truly great winter's day outside with the kids. Final Grade: D+ PS: Winter is not over, but more about that after I resume day-to-day life. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/02/forecast-verification-for-blizzard-of.html

Thanks, you have the link?

Anyone have the latest record bulletin for Providence snowfall?

Works for verification purposes.

Exactly....agree. DT was breaking my balls on Facebook......dude always makes excuses when he busts..."The data changed"....love that one. Like...WTF is a forecast for if you can anticipate late trends and know when the data is BS?? He always used that excuse.

True...I couldn't pull it off this storm I had to average out the drifts.

I deal with fatigue and time constraints, too...I make excuses to talk my self out of needed to redo anything, which I normally don't do, anyway...I'm not a pro, so I don't other to correct Final products...but the writing was on the wall...notice I went to sleep at 330. NEVER would have happened had I been excited about what I Saw. If you live in my area and see my sleep during an event, you're fucked.

Yea, I have no issue with it....RAD and pics align. in fact, if I were there, I would have measured 50" because I would not have slept and cleared every 6 hours.

I am working on a post mortem now and will illustrate all of this. See, this is me now, as opposed to 10 years ago....now I'm able to bare the busted forecast trauma to salvage growth.

Looks to me like CT managed MECS numbers due to the decaying H7 fronto that hit Delaware, but that was cooked by the time it got to me, as all fronto aligned over SE MA and RI. I know I posted a couple of times about being afraid that fronto hole that was originally over CT would end up over me with the combo of slightly delayed development and the se tic. Exactly what happened...CT got the 15-25" zone that I had for my area.

Are you speaking of 700mb RH? Oh, surface...I see it. I always say shitty forecasts are the best learning tools...This is a perfect example of it. Class is session...I'll do better next blizzard.

10"

Not what I said....however, SSTAs are less impactful when ENSO is weak...take a look at 1976...east based event, yet crushed NE. Even with Nina....2000 was modoki, yet crushed NE. (similar solar/QBO to this year). When ENSO is weak, other factors play more of a role, like solar cycle, etc. 18-19 was low solar-descending solar/west QBO, which is a shitty combo. 2019 was neutral.

Agree. Big March incoming...

I would never have guessed that was under "lower"dynamics...

Thanks, I usually use F5 site for fronto, but only has EURO.

Thanks so much. Where is that fronto option of TT? Having trouble finding it...does it require subscription?

-EPO (+TNH) was a byproduct of high solar and exceptionally strong easterly QBO....like this year. The fact that it was a modoki El Niño helps, yes.

Take a look at weak El Niños versus stronger back throughout history.......2014, 2004, 1977, 1976, 1968...all weak and NE winters. 2015, 2009, 2002, 1986, 1982, 1957...those stronger ones get the mid Atlantic.