Jump to content

40/70 Benchmark

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    72,654

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I thought we could see a modest warm ENSO late last winter, but have since backed off of that.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm not arguing that the active jet isn't inhibiting snowfall opportunities, or that forecasters shouldn't be mindful of it. My point is that it wasn't the only reason we didn't see a large east coast snowstorm last year. That said, I also think the jet plays a role making it more difficult to get a well placed PNA ridge. Its both.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I think that is applicable more for your area through the LES belts and into NNE....but I do agree with Chris that CC maybe starting to infringe on SNE snowfall climo....at least a portion of SNE, anyway. That said, we are simply in a hostile pattern for SNE that is less so for your area over to NNE.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    It goes both ways...there are plenty of deniers, too....so I get why some feel the need to overcompensate on the other end of the spectrum, but we need to all make a concerted effort to be a bit more moderate or else objectivity becomes compromised.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    CC probably did play a role in that, too....I am in agreement with the idea that it fosters greaters variability with the overall trend line pointed downward, but that doesn't mean that you have to go robocop on people to tie it to every missed opportunity for a snowstorm. There have always been misses and rough stretches during which the misses far outnumbered the hits.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    At the end of the day, the snow drought is a product of CC enhancing what already would have been a very hostile multidecadal base state. I don't know what is unreasonable about that...jesus, CC is so politicized that its now just like actual politics in that everyone is so polarized that its the few moderates that bare the brunt of the cross fire.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    It was off the west coast when the storm took place, which is all that matters. Yes, the jet was a factor, but so isn't the poor positioning of the ridge. I don't know why you inexoprably seek agreement on a 100% CC attribution for everything.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Believe it or not, sometimes the big storm doesn't work out and the reason why isn't directly attributable to climate change. Even in those two monthly composites, its easy to see that the January 2022 pattern was much more suportive relative to January 2025, when the lowest heights were right over the NE. The vortex was a little further NW, over SE Canada in 2022, which was less supressive.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    First of all, that is a monthly mean composite, but the ridge was actually a bit more favorably positioned during the timeframe that the blizzard took place. Secondly, the better positioning of the ridge in conjunction with the strongly negative WPO that was in place that month (and season) made that pattern more conducive than this past January.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, that was an instance of the PNA ridge beging just off of the west coast. I'm sure that the active jet didn't help matters, but the positioning of the PNA ridges was consistently an issue.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    The WPO and PNA were actually pretty consistently positive, and the EPO negative last season. I am not necessarily disagreeing with you in general, just speaking of last year. The AO/NAO were variable, agreed. Thing was that the PNA was consistently focused along and just off of the west coast last year, which is has never and will never be favorable for major east coast snow events.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm speaking of the season in the aggregate...it was decidedly +WPO.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Add 2021-2022 to the list of -ENSO/-QBO...forgot that one. That Aleutian ridge looks about as flat as Pablo Sabdoval's waistline after the Sox signed him in 2012.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    He was definitely wrong about the -WPO (as was I)...that part didn't work out. It was all EPO..I expected the opposite, too, incidentally.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, its not that I didn't believe you...I'm just not sure I buy it as being a huge factor, which isn't to say it has zero creedence...its just that its something I feel is easily overrided by other factors. But again...will I be shocked if this season has a flat Aleutian ridge? No, at least not at this early juncture.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, 2011-2012 was a Modoki La Nina and I'm willing to bet that much of the balance of that data set was, as well. I'll sell that...that isn't to say that I am necessarily sold on poleward ridging or a good winter...I just don't buy the QBO connection. I buy the weaker/easterly La Nina poleward ridging data.....2000-2001, 2005-2006 and 2017-2018 are three relatively recent -QBO negative ENSO seasons that featured plenty of poleward Aleutian ridging.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't know where you get this from....
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I am not at all implying 2014 is a good Pacific match....all I am saying is that I don't think it will be a bad arctic analog...that said, I won't be suprised if get a decent look around AK next season, just not to the extent of 2014.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    2014 is in a class of its own for QBO matches right now......its also a pretty damn good match for solar, too....so more reason to be skeptical of much arctic blocking. We are probably going to need to get it done on the Pacific side, which is what the CANSIPS does. That is also consistent with my very early idea, but extremely low confidence obviously.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    #pantstent
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, this doesn't suprise me. No reason to bet against that for the balance of the decade, with perhaps some better luck and a mismatch season or two thrown in.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Although, I think 2022-2023 with a bit less extreme troughing out west would have been pretty good...I doubt the RNA would be that extreme again. December and March would have been much better, at least for my area, with even a predestrian RNA pattern.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    2022...great, said no one east of the Mississippi except for @snowman19....
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, usually the cool phases last a bit longer....it could spill into the next decade a bit...but it won't be as extreme....long term trend line will def. be lifting.
×
×
  • Create New...