40/70 Benchmark

Interesting that we have had two consecutive episodes of El Nino that were accompanied by -PDO (2018-2019 and 2023-2024) for the first time since the 1950s (1951-1952 and 1953-1954). The third of warm ENSO of the 1950s was a strong/border line super event. Sound familiar? 1957-1958 did not follow that trend. I can't wait to delve into the stratosphere and solar analogs this summer....this is not the slam-dunk that many are portraying it to be.

Sucks...Steve just lost a pet, too. I had two dogs as a child that I got in third grade....they lived until I was 27 lol. Like 18 years.

I don't delve deeply into this time of the year, but the roll forward into April and May doesn't look balmy.

It harkens back to what I have always said in response to those who have speculated that this would be the "new normal" as a result of CC driving the western Pac warm pool. YES....the globe is warming. However, these patterns remain cyclical and mother nature will find a way to achieve balance independent of the mean background warming.....abracadabra-presto! Notice a difference despite the west warm pool? What I will admit is we likely need to work on that to achieve more MJO phase 8 residence time and amplitude, which is likely still limiting large coastals, aside from the blizzard. I am willing to bet that the PDO will flip positive by next winter if we do get another strong El Nino, despite the CC signature on the SST pattern.

The coming winter is going to be heavily influenced by how potent El Nino becomes, and it's orientation.

Yea, I missed on March this year, however, I did mention in my outlook last fall that the risk was warmer because it was dependent on a successful SSW....and obviously the can got kicked. This actually helped my DM aggregate seasonal call because I'm too warm.

Personally, I wasn't shocked that 2024-2025 didn't produce in terms of snowfall...my forecast totals were pretty damned accurate, as they were this past season.

Well, obviously the globe has continued to warm over the past 11-12 years, but you are also neglecting to mention that winter 2024-2025 featured a strongly +WPO. This past season had a strongly -WPO, as did 2013-2014 and 2014-2015, and what do you know...the snowfall showed up. Obviously not to the extent of the 100" in 30 days like 2015, but I think we all understand that that has a very low return rate, regardless of CC. I know there was a school of thought that this +WPO regime would be permanent as a result of the warmth in the western Pacific, but this past season clearly validated those of us that have maintained that these oscillations will remain cyclical in nature.

I don't think these are mutually exclusive. It was warm for a couple of different reasons. 1982-1983 is the only super El Nino that was a accompanied by somewhat of a -WPO, which may help to explain why it's the only one to have featured decent snowfall throughout the NE.

Things that make ya go "hmmm".....

Gun-to-head right now....I don't think we are going to see that warm of a result accompanying El Nino again at such a short return rate, warming background state not withstanding. We just had a super El Nino that heralded in this western-warm pool oriented regime in 2016, and then the one in 2024 which seems to have triggered a "changing of the guard" so to speak in the north Pacific.

Nothing is a very good metric for measuring anything if the index is going to be taken at face value without an understanding of what the number is trying to convey. It harkens back to what we discussed regarding WHY the RONI lagged the ONI that season.....the weaker hemispheric expression was due to the antecedent cool ENSO configuration of of the hemisphere partially masking it, which was also reflected by the -PDO. It was very similar to the 1972-1973 in that sense. This is also why the degree of warmth across the NE that winter was still redolent of a higher end el Nino.

Yea, I am not resigned to a dud-winter next season. Quite the contrary, I think we are going to need an excessively strong and eastern biased warm ENSO to counter the clear paradigm shift we have observed in the north Pacific over these past two years. I think short of that, I am going to be be inclined to favor a 2002-2003 sort of outcome. I could see it gong either way at this point, but I think a lot rides on ENSO this season.

I was only 12" shy of 1995-1996 in Wilmington. 115.5" vs 127.5". 2004-2005 was 107.5".

Yea, same. 30 years and only 2014-2015 came within a foot. 2004-2005 is the only other season to come within 20".

This winter needed like one more 20"er to make high-end in my eyes. ...or at least a 1 foot, anyway. There were a few opportunities, but winter 2025-2026 kept missing the open net to seal it's place in interior SNE winter-lore. Instead it was winter-bore for the final month.

I feel like if we can dodge the super-status next year, we could holdover this cool east/warm west alignment and get a 2002-2003 type of season.

I mean stein relative to other areas...not that it's actually been bone-dry...but even the screamer was much less than areas to the south...I had well under an inch, like .74", I think.

I don't have my records in front of me, but that deluge on early Monday AM totally missed me...it was just a few snow showers.

Stein up here.