40/70 Benchmark

Not as much as you think....models have still been far too zealous with phase 8 residence time and amplification....I worked this into my outlook and called BS in December, which was correct. A lot of it is due to the west warm pool biasing convection out there, and I do think it will shift eventually. Thus SSTS and conditions near the ground can reenforce a given atmospheric regime in the absence of a major catalyst for change. When considering the graphic below, it is apparent that the largest increase in oceanic heat content has occurred in the western Pacific, with a secondary area off of the northeast US coast to the south of Newfoundland. These areas are not coincidental and are likely a byproduct of both the prevailing trades as regulated by the Walker Cycle (West Pacific), and perhaps the melting of sea ice slowing the warming in the higher latitudes (near New Foundland). These maxima of heat content are in areas that correlate with both +WPO and +NAO. Accordingly, there has indeed been an increased tendency towards the DJFM winter period being biased towards +WPO/+NAO in the mean that has been remarkably evident since the major El Niño event of 2015-2016 accelerated the warming. In fact, since 2016, only two seasons have averaged a -WPO (2016-2017, 2021-2022) and just one season has averaged a -NAO (2020-2021). This would seem to imply that this is at least partially attributable to some sort of feedback accentuated by the stored ocean heat content that is a byproduct of climate change. Note the similarity to the West Pacific Oscillation (WPO) correlation map in terms of both temps, as well as the 500mb pattern over the US during DM period over the course of the past decade, which validates the premise that the west Pacific has been the prevailing catalyst in the pattern. While the vast majority of the country has been running above the 1951-2010 climatology base owed to the general background warming, it is clear how the magnitude of said warmth is weighted disproportionately in that it is much more intense across the eastern portion of the country. The eastern half of the country has been running several degrees warmer than average, while areas of the Pacific north west coast hardly at all. This is due at least in part to the aforementioned heat maximum over the west Pacific, which has come to be known as the West Pacific Warm Pool. This immense warmer body of water, which is likely attributable to some combination of climate change and natural variation, has caused the convective pattern known as the Madden Jullian Oscillation (MJO) to spend an inordinately excessive amount of time in the maritime continent (MC) phases of 4-7 as a result of the aforementioned tropical convective processes that act to budget and redistribute the immense amount of stored heat around the globe. These are phases that correlate with greater heights and warmer weather over the eastern half of the country during the winter season, which is precisely what has occurred in the mean over this span of time.

That is when it should be come better, as the MJO hits 7.

I think part of it is the behavior of the MJO deconstructively interfering with major east coast cyclogenesis...but agree on over-attribution.

At some point that will start happening again....we just don't know when, as Wolfie would say....

Yea, either way, it's not going to be December 5, 1981....I just meant qualitatively speaking...not amounts.

Seems like east has better shot at accumulating snow per guidance...I think that is what he meant.

Take a look at this event....Sunday night is a toned down version, but it happens...accept and deal.

Hang in there....I don't think it will stay boring. Sunday night will probably be mainly east of you, admittedly, but it's going to get active.

I hate the cold without snow, but I do long for one of those days when I was kid...temp would be dropping through the single digits during the afternoon and be zero by nightfall. We used to get those more in the 80s...

This period was always supposed to be mild...NBD.

Yea, that's a nice 'lil Miller B-East specimen for MLK...been sparse past several years.

I see some falling into the trap of dismissing everything due to an ill-fated threat failing to materialize......big mistake.

Buy.

We're going to get a real nice stretch...no way this season ends early like last year. And if you remember a year ago, I was slamming the early spring drum. I knew that one was over.

Except mid January, as was outlined last fall.

But La Nina is dead!!!!

Yea, I've been on the big-finish train. You have to think it starts up soon...probably when the MJO hits 7.

Guessing no, since posts went "poof" faster than the long range PD II.

What would shut the winter wuss up? We don't know?

For me it would depend how we get there....several 4" events? Pass.

I'm still watching....reason why I held off on a blog today.

I remember that. You did.

Your understanding of how La Nina influences the pattern is far too reductive. Since we're in the mood to discuss seasonal trends, why don't see consider the model bias with respect to the amount of time that the MJO has spent phase 8. I wonder why that, and has been, for the better part of a decade...

All I agreed with him on is that it's been dry and La Nina still has an influence....I'm asking for information on his other "claims", which has yet to be provided.