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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Tough for me to tell without monthly calculations, but it looks like 1957, 1982 and 2015 are good polar analogs.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    They still haven't calculated the QBO since February. What an absolute nightmare this administration is.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    WPO....it's usually + in these uber warm ENSO events, but 1982-1983 was negative....I could see us pulling that off again given the recent changes on the North Pacific. May be another notable difference between this year and 2023-2024.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    1957-1958 also had quite a bit of -NAO.....but Chris is correct to question how effective it would be today because even if the west warm pool relents, we still need to account for the exaggerated ridge and attenuated trough responses in our modern climate.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Never any guarantees with an El Niño that powerful, but we can all agree that we'll need some negative NAO to have an appreciable shot.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would welcome this, regardless of how we fare this coming winter.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, that's more of a traditional, canonical-intense El Niño response, more in line with 1997. NAO will be crucial to salvaging a winter. Probably cooler than 2023 in the NE in the absence of that competing MC element.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I feel like we are going to be playing with fire a lot between periods of Modoki forcing and MC forcing....probably a good deal of variability after a consistently mild early season.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    No way in hell this is going to be a cold winter in the mean for the NE...even 1957 and 1965 were near normal.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I nailed it in 2016, though granted I was too cold and snowy. I have no issue with a big snow risk, but the cold that Europe site was selling is BS....maybe an arctic outbreak like Feb 2016, but not in the seasonal mean.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Grain of salt....this guy is kind of a weenie IMHO. https://www.severe-weather.eu/
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I have been researching this for my upcoming blog....2015 had it somewhat, but it was much more pronounced in 2023.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Those on the Gulf coast should keep an open mind this winter, some dude in Pensacola measured a foot of snow outside of his office 17 months ago.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Nothing close-minded about my sentiment. I'll peer out the window every now and again if it happens to look ominous, but that is about the extent of my commitment.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Seems a higher percentage play at your latitude from what I have gathered.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Convection just doesn't do much for me because the odds of anything noteworthy at any given location is just so low........I mean, what are the odds one of those rogue cells sets up over MBY....and furthermore, what are the odds said rogue cell offers anything more anomalous than some heavier rain and gusty winds. While the jackpot is inherently elusive, at least during major winter storms the noteworthy significant blanket of snowfall is pretty uniform. That is a worthwhile endeavor relative to the ill-fated summer rendition of pin the convective tail on the weenie.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm the same, completely, except for hurricanes.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Lovers' quarrel?
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    I need the rain desperately...hopefully some big storms pop up here.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    https://peakbagger.com/List.aspx?lid=19322&cid=56096
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I haven't seen under 30" since 2011-2012.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm not talking about winning the relative to the mean trophy...it was my first season that wasn't 10" or more below average snowfall since 2017-2018. I'll take it and run.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    CANSIPS clearly has a Modoki look just viewing H5 next winter...don't have to look at SSTs. CFS has a more east-based look. My guess is it will look more like the CFS in the seasonal mean given how strong the event is going to be, but I could certainly see a stretch from latter January into February looking like the CANSIPS. I suspect we won't see a wall-to-wall furnace, although I'm sure Bluewave and the climate changer will be quoting tweets declaring it the warmest winter on record across the CONUS.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Definitely been a hot month out here...only recently shifted more temperate.
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