40/70 Benchmark

Keep thinking what? It's not subjective...I told you what my forecast was...that is objective fact.

I used December 2000 as an analog for the warming in that it would narrowly miss a reversal, but also mentioned December 1981 as an example if it were to actually reverse. I said that the MJO would staddle the border of MJO phase 8 and perhaps make it into phase 8 at a reduced amplitude, which would allow other factors to potentially modulate the pattern. And I'm not sure how in the hell you are grading the nuances of the 500mb composite for a month that has yet to begin. You are absolutely desperate for snow in Central Park, I get it.

I stopped reading your response right there. Either you didn't actually read my outlook, or you're illiterate to some extent.

Just see how EPS trended.

I have explained my forecast rationale in quite vivid detail, so if the logic is still lost on you, the issue is not mine. I will be sure to pay particularly close attention to how much the I 95 cities south of Boston receive in December. Good luck-

It would probably be a pattern that would still stack snow in NNE, but my area points southward would struggle on the cp.

Yea, the cold 500mb is what I was getting at by "cold in se Canda", which I was supremely confident would be in play this year, in sharp contrast to the past decade.

I still think there will be some sort of break prior to Xmas....also not huge on mid atlantic snowfall this month...at least not in the lower terrain on the coastal plane.

I think so...which is why I wanted you to bet. I was very confident in a fast start to the month based on my analogs.

Sell early phase.

I probably rushed the PV recovery, which I can live with...the bigger deal is getting the Pacific trough transition correct.

I wouldn't worry about the OP details yet...like where we stand.

Good look.

I don't think it is..let's see what verifies. It's not zero chance, though....any time you get a weak PV the guard has to be...which is why I said slight chance of a KU between Dec 1 and 15, but I think the better window is late season.

Looks like it copied me.

Best EPS yet.

Yea, GFS has the crazy gradient over KASH, EURO over Attleboro...place it over rt 128 with a parcel and a pear tree.

Similar to 06z, but a bit tamer.

Oddly enough, I think the GEM is most realistic, IMO.

Yea, I would sign for the GEM.

Looks like the trend tonight is towards less proficent cyclogensis, regardless of track...which isn't surprising. This isn't a pattern ripe for bombs.

Same, exact gradient, just more moderate amounts.

No, it isn't.

GFS is awful.

What a like about this low is we seem to time the life cycle well, so that could help those areas that are marginal.