40/70 Benchmark

I remember you telling me about the Indian ocean Aug-Nov being a good indicator of winter WPO...it looked strongly positive all summer and into the fall, before flipping drastically at the last moment. Looked kind of neutralish, but the WPO ended up strongly negative.

This is my point...+PDO doesn't guarantee a cold winter...it merely increases the probability of the warmer west/colder east pattern. If we end up with like a 2.6 event, then it won't matter.

I have no issue with that.....it's why I always like to compare my work with your NAO formula before publishing.

Yes...and maybe that happens and it's still warm, or warm everywhere....too early to entertain that or dispute it.

AGAIN....don't mistake this for me saying it has to be cold in the east next year...not what I am implying.

We just flipped from this: To this: And now a healthy WARM ENSO is going to revert it back?? Shoot me for not buying in instantaneously and having pause-

Agreed, but I doubt we have a -PDO next season, and I'm also not sure it's east-based. The Pacific is changing....I don't think you are going to pull off an appreciable warm ENSO and maintain -PDO. We just saw that two years ago and it isn't happening again...never has.

I'm not arguing for a big winter next year...all I am trying to say is that nothing is set in stone yet. This is why I usually don't get into it this early. You end up defending a hypothetical position that you haven't even taken yet.

I did? Anyway, I'm not willing to delve in any further at this point.

Every other year is the warmest winter on record nationally...I don't see this is a novel concept.

I don't see what it matters if the mean pattern favors a west coast ridge and an east coast trough....that said, it doesn't need to be very cold to salvage a decent snowfall season.

Doesn't have to be west-based necessarily to have that type of outcome.....basin-wide is fair game. That year was also emerging from a persistent -PDO. I've already said I don't expect next winter to be that cold, regardless, but my point is that I don't think a +5F season is a foregone conclusion.

I don't anticipate a super el nino just based on what has happened in the past and where it looks like we're headed...just doesn't fit. My guess is a decent event that is not prohibitive to a good winter...a la 1957 or 2002. Again, just my hunch....I'm not saying a super event can't happen, but considering we just had a super event in 2015, and a very strong and very warm el nino in 2023 as we now begin to emerge from the ongoing Pacific cold phase, I just don't see it. I like 1957 because it is a good QBO fit and decent solar match (albeit closer to solar max) that followed up two Pacific cold phase El nino events. 2002 is a very good solar match and an okay QBO match that also occurred as we emerged from a persistent -PDO.

I would expect more of that this summer...not going to get into summer outlooks because frankly, the interest isn't there and I'd end up fired and divorced...but I think the smart money is on the emergence of a much wetter pattern.

Perfect time of year to check out of the weather and immerse oneself in baseball.

IMHO the default position should be that it will relocate given a strong enough El Nino because that is what has always happened...sure, you could argue that the magnitude and residence of this particular warm pool is unprecedented, but I can tell you what else is unprecedented....ANY type of pattern or SST signature becoming a permanent fixture in the hemisphere (general warming notwithstanding), so in that sense we have plenty of evidence. This is akin to me arguing that the warm east/cold west/+WPO pattern wasn't permanent, which we now know for certain.

I think we could eliminate the possibility of a high-end NE snowfall outcome in that case...mid Atlantic is different since they don't average as much and can exceed their seasonal allotment in one storm given the powerful STJ. I am with you on the cold...even if we do get a 2002-2003 or 1957-1958 type of El Nino, I don't anticipate it being as consistently cold as last season.

You are in good shape, Jerry...lots of folks maintain vitality and independence into their 90s...you keep active, too...physically and mentally. I Look forward to exchanging obs during winter 2037-2038....if Tip doesn't engineer to have the sun swallow us whole by then.

I see what you are saying based off the RONI, but it didn't hit 0.5 again until February 1953....the MEI actually dipped negative briefly in December 1952 and didn't hit 0.5 again until March. Based on this, the answer is "no"....1952-1953 was neutral. https://www.webberweather.com/multivariate-enso-index.html

Looks to me like 1957 is a bit better of a QBO analog, and 2002 a better solar analog....neither one are awful polar analogs, though. 2002-2003 flipped to negative QBO at 30mb and 1957-1958 was right at solar max. 2026-2027 will be positive at 30 and 50mb, like 1957-1958, and descending past solar max, like 2002-2003. I see no reason why we should be resigned to an awful winter....locking in an east-based super El Niño is every bit of a wish cast as anything else at this early juncture.

We did have two in the 1960s, as well (1965-1966 and 1968-1969) my mistake....but 1968-1969 was weak.

We did have two in the 1960s, as well (1965-1966 and 1968-1969) my mistake....but 1968-1969 was weak.

Interesting that we have had two consecutive episodes of El Nino that were accompanied by -PDO (2018-2019 and 2023-2024) for the first time since the 1950s (1951-1952 and 1953-1954). The third of warm ENSO of the 1950s was a strong/border line super event. Sound familiar? 1957-1958 did not follow that trend. I can't wait to delve into the stratosphere and solar analogs this summer....this is not the slam-dunk that many are portraying it to be.