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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I didn't have the data in front of me...I just meant it should be pretty warm. Maybe +6 instead of +13, sure.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Eventually it's going to happen...sure, the return rate maybe decreasing, but it will happen.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    (Saunters purposefully into oncoming traffic) Do we have an emoji for that?
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, it will be better, but the question is how much better...as Chris says.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    I expect something similar temp wise, but snowfall in the higher terrain of northern New England is still a bit of a wild card. Not a pretty look overall for December, though.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    December 1995, 2009 and 2013 were pretty cold, but by and large, you are correct. December 2005, 2007 and 2008 were normalish...
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    If this sticks, which I feel like it may, we probably pull of a serviceable snowfall season next year....albeit mild.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I do think we have changed to a better north Pacific pattern.....seem to have flipped from predominately +WPO for many years to more negative the past couple.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, makes sense. I think some of that is just natural variation, but it is undoubtedly augmented by CC eroding the the bookends of the cold season. I'm sure it's not happening as fast as could be inferred by the contrast between those two decades, though...my money is on a better decade for the month of March during the 2030's relative to the 2020s.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, I understand that...most winter seasonal considerations don't. I only do because it's a large part of the snowfall season around here...well, historically, anyway...not so much this decade.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    1982 is actually the only super El Niño to average barely -WPO DJFM (-.17)....probably largely why it's the only one in which my area pulled off normal snowfall. December was very strongly +, then January was about neutral before the bottom dropped out. Good Analog IMO. 1982 1.42 1983 -0.05 -0.89 -1.14
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Why would you measure anomalies from decades ago with present day climo? I use the appropriate climo period for all of my analogs...H5 and temps.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I have already said I think it may be colder than 2015-2016, just not cold.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    3.55" on the month.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, extreme anomalies throughout ENSO precludes a cold season, but also favors some variability. Just to be clear, while we should get some colder windows that will present an opportunity for significant snows, more likely during the second half, the cold periods will pale in comparison to the warm periods....so no need to bombard me with terd and weenie emojis.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I tried to clarify this yesterday...but all I mean when I call it "basin-wide" is just that-the intense anomalies are not relegated to only the east. Yes, they are strongest in the east, but given the magnitude it doesn't really matter. This is why the most intense El Nino events are all warm...because it spills into the eastern zones. Well, same situation here....we aren't getting a cold season because there is so much warmth in the eastern zones, but there is enough in the central and western flank to introduce some variability. I am not trying to imply that this is an excuse to forecast a 2002-2003 redux in the seasonal mean because there is too much warmth too far east-but what I am favoring is a warm overall season with some episodes of MC and Modoki forcing mixed in. Thus this is what I am trying to convey with any mentions of the 2002 and 2009 analogs, not a redux of those particular seasons. This is why why we have analog COMPOSITES. I agree that anyone forecasting a season as cold as 2002 is delusional, but that doesn't mean the analog can not be incorporated into a composite, nor that this El Nino can not be characterized as a basin-wide event because it should.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I agree. Probably higher and deeper into the interior than my locale.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agreed on both accounts here. I have been saying that I don't think the EMI will be particularly important this season given the magnitude of the warmth that is expected throughout the basin....should function as an intense, basin-wide event with some hints of MC competition...essentially similar to 2015-2016 in terms of sensible weather. Very warm in the mean with greater variability during the second half.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think what it comes down to is it's easy to keep the heat out of the eastern regions if it's weaker, but def. agree on the bolded.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Oh, geez....so sorry. My bad.....yea, I held out some hope initially, but quickly became clear it was not to be.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't understand how you have reached the conclusion that the mid Atlantic will not muster so much as a moderate event....Jesus, what is it with inability of the majority of this forum to accept any dialectical nuance. It's either ALL or NOTHING. The reality is that the coastal plane has a decent shot of a major event this year and history dictates that.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    We've definitely already peaked as far as the Pacific cold phase goes....likely pretty near neutral for the coming winter (slightly negative probably favored), but I still think it will be early next decade, around the solar min, when we truly switch into the new warm phase. Like a very big winter right after the solar min, as we begin the ascending phase.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree...it will also be well above in the mean because were aren't getting cold of that magnitude, nor as protracted later in the season. I am NOT trying to imply that this year will be like the colder basin-wide seasons like 2002 when I call it basin-wide.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Region 1.2 is pretty volatile given it's so small, so it may be helpful to consider region 3.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I agree 100% on this...but it's also important to remember that we DID get a crippling KU in January 2016 and we DID get a record breaking arctic outbreak in February. I am suggesting that same volatility here due to the basin-wide nature, not because El NINO is "dying", which is of course silly given the atmospheric lag.
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