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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Oh, I misunderstood....right. I agree with that. It was obvious. As far as the ELI goes.....it's really not even worth arguing bc it's a moot point this season, anyway given the degree of warmth in the basin. That being said, if anyone uses that index exclusively to assess ENSO orientation moving forward, there will undoubtedly be issues....although that can probably be said about any particular metric.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    You don't feel that ENSO is coupled with the tropics right now? I guess we can agree to disagree, then. I prefer a to use all of them TBH, and they all imply the same thing...ENSO is driving the tropics attm.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    There is definitely a correlation....obviously the mid latitudes stand a better chance of being in sync with the tropics of the MEI is higher, but it's not absolute. Kind of akin to how the AO is correlated to colder mid latitude winters, but there are always exceptions when areas outside of it's domain are pervasive drivers.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    MEI is great for what it's designed to do...assess how well coupled ENSO is with the tropical atmosphere: The bi-monthly Multivariate El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index (MEI.v2) is the time series of the leading combined Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) of five different variables (sea level pressure (SLP), sea surface temperature (SST), zonal and meridional components of the surface wind, and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR)) over the tropical Pacific basin (30°S-30°N and 100°E-70°W). I'm not sure why it should be viewed as a quality assessment outside of that bounded area of the tropical Pacific....it's not going to be able to detect how well the tropics are in sync with the mid latitudes, rather it is designed to measure the quality of the coupling between the ocean and atmosphere in the tropical Pacific. The RONI is probably better equipped to gage the link between the tropics and mid latitudes, but ultimately I think we just need to dig in an assess for ourselves like Chris has been doing. I don't care is the MEI is 5.3, there is still obviously a prism between the tropics and mid latitudes and no, that isn't necessarily a "good" thing for winter.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    None of us are perfect...best any forecaster can do is try to keep an open mind, be willing to admit error and look to improve. My outlooks got a lot better the moment I stopped perceiving alternative view points as a threat and tried incorporating them....truth is that every individual has something to offer.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    My mistake...I guess I spoke out of turn and should have double-checked. Thanks. I'm going to stick with that source, though in an effort to be homogeneous.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Completely agreed. That is all I was getting at originally.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is the one that I use, as I have found that the other reading hasn't accurately depicted the severity of this Pacific cold phase throughout the 2020's. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think it will end up near neutral....either side.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, basically a -PDO negatively interferes with every element of El Nino that is favorable from the perspective of an east coast winter enthusiast.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think the 12-rack you consumed for breakfast deconstructively interfered with your thought process.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    I've said before I'm not a big fan of the ELI, and frankly disagree it's more east-based than 1997, but I also don't think that it matters. Solar is another reason to bet against the 2009 and 1957 analogs.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    2009 was a pure Modoki season and was much weaker in magnitude. 1957 was basin-wide, but it was focused pretty far west and was barely a super-event. Forget 2009, but I guess 1957 is about as cold as one could expect, which was around normal.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think he means "stable" within the context of the modern GW trend.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    CANSIPS actually did well last season, but I agree it's too biased towards the Modoki end of the spectrum this year....alomng with the JMA, IMHO.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    No...it's not. It will be above average.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Where is the July verification composite from, the JMA site?
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think these changes are entirely immaterial with the degree of warmth throughout ENSO.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    No one thought it was right with a straight Modoki in the seasonal mean.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    1.78" Three-day total IMBY...much needed.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Go back and search...he literally calls for East coast bullseye every season.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    The arctic outbreak INVO VD Day was pretty remarkable.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    I wouldn't because I think it will be solid.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, that's there I'm at.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    That's why Chuck's formula is negative.
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