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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Maybe it lingered just long enough at 70mb to help trigger this...who knows....
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Why celebrate your kid's 1st grade graduation, or take pride in dropping 30lbs....the rate of warming in the arctic is more impressive. I mean, if someone is in fact using a single storm or arctic outbreak as evidence against CC, then by all means....start the firing squad, but simply enjoying it for what it is? The fact that CC is in fact real warrants that we savor it even more TBH.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I understand that it's true, but given the rarity of blizzards of that magnitude, it just seems tone-deaf. I'm not angry...I just don't get it....sure, the anomaly with respect to the warmth is more impressive statistically speaking, but anyone with a pulse is more compelled by the anomaly that is magnificently impacting their sensible weather in the short-term. Focusing on the blizzard that is dropping 30" in your drive way and understanding that CC is real are not mutually exclusive...why is their this tacit mindset that you're in denial unless you're strutting around nude on main street with a banner touting your ever-expanding Hadley Cell. Shit, strap on a loin-cloth and enjoy the fruits of ma-nature; smoke 'em if ya got 'em, as fleeting as they may be. I mean, I got married, had 4 kids, launched a career and purchased a home..."geez, look at that guy, he's in denial about his own mortality"... "Why bother, he's just going to die anyway, idiot"-
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    March could snap back...
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    There was literally a generational blizzard ongoing last February, and he was posting images illustrating how the magnitude of that the anomaly paled in comparison to the warmth in the southwest....love-ya-mean-it, Chris...but wow-
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I love a lot of his data, but the instinct to compulsively extinguish any potential hope for winter is uncanny....it's like Robo Cop or Terminator...whereas you don't even have to explicitly express optimism, but if his sensors flag data he perceives as something that could theoretically engender even a modicum of hope, he pounces.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Jesus, Chris....we get it. There's no hope. "My beach umbrella is bigger than your snow shovel"
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Including 1997 as an analog isn't intellectually lazy in and of itself....it's in my composite with ample data to support it. You can identify MC forcing by looking at where the velocity potential, highest precipitation rate and OLR are focused....if it's in the MC, then it's MC forcing. This year it is not....2023 it was, 2015 it was somewhat....I don't see this year being dry given the intensity of El Niño and absence of MC forcing.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    The incompetence watch has been upgraded to a warning.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Of course it's going to be masked by the strongest El Nino in history in the seasonal mean, the question is whether it portends a favorable stretch of two during the winter, which often makes the difference between a bottom-dwelling winter in terms of snowfall and a middling season.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm not a huge SAI guy, but I heard both SCE and SAI are at record levels....noteworthy, anyway if true.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Larry, I wouldn't say "lack of any seasonal model support".....EURO and UK have hitting blocking hard.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    He is brutal.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I DMed you...
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Probably right, but you also have to leave open for the possibility that the longer range defaults towards climo.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Of course it lags, but it leads you to the driver.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    2023-2024 had strong MC forcing though, which as you know is significant source of destructive interference for high latitude blocking. I don't deny that this is probably CC enhanced, and perhaps it won't end up meaning much...I'm open to that, but I don't think that we can summarily dismiss it as an artifact of CC.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Getting Modoki value correct is part of what comprises an accurate ENSO forecast....you want to say EURO has been best, okay....but it's not been perfect is all I mean.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    I understand that, but it's still off...doesn't matter why.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    I told you why I doubted the magnitude...had nothing to do with a desire for cold.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    65-72 was -AMO, I believe.....we were in a dry pattern in the NE bc we had MC forcing for the better part of a decade. ..I would not go dry this year.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Makes sense because it's also been too far west, along with everything else...just less so. I'm just saying, it may very well have been best, but it's not perfect.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    My latest call as of Latter September was peak RONI between 3 and 3.2 and 3.4 to 3.6 for ONI during NDJ. One final assessment next week.
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