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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    This season will definitely average +PNA and probably safely so. I think we get an RNA month, it may be December.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think we are going to see wall-wall -PNA.... I agree the polar domain will be crucial.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    -EPO/-WPO is usually tough to come by in super El Niño events.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    John, check out my update from last month.....really hits on what you are eluding to. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/06/forecast-intense-el-nino-potential.html I think we are going to maintain about. a.5 delta between the ONI and RONI, which would continue to denote some MC competition with El Niño.....less so than 2023, but perhaps similar if not more than 2015. Guidance tries to push back against that idea, but I'll believe it when I see it....they have done a very poor job with that throughout the past decade, usually erroneously modding in favor of stock ENSO.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think a strong -NAO signal from the North Atlantic would be a real feather in the cap of the 1957, 1965. 1986 camps....even 2009.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Some of the modeling may have rushed it a bit, but this El Niño is still ahead of any other on record.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Should be an interesting forecast for the polar domain this season....on the one hand, it looks pretty definitive that we at least aren't headed towards a strongly +NAO per the N ATL formula, which would be huge because that is game-over in an El Niño of this magnitude. On the other hand, we are now into the portion of the solar cycle that is very hostile to high latitude blocking. Descending solar 2-4 years removed from solar max is strongly supportive of +NAO as geomag peaks given the lag from solar flux. That said, my early solar analogs are not devoid of blocking, so my hunch continues to be some fun and games during the second half after a tepid first half. The key to increased confidence would be getting a -WPO (neutralish) signal, a la 1982...more on that later this season. I will of course draft all of this out complete with visuals to elucidate my thoughts in vivid detail later this fall. If we can avoid a strongly +NAO/WPO, then we should be okay.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I just looked back at that section of my publication from last fall. I think if we hold it for another month, we should be good.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    No....Boxing Day was very frustrating...it was an occluded, shredded mess....great banding was back in the tri- state area.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    If I ever witness another Feb 2010, I'll go @snowman19
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    We are what, about 60% of the way through your May-Aug period?
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, thank you.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Raindance has stated that -AMO could lead to a cold winter for the country.....I'm not saying there isn't any truth to that, it's just that that site tends to seeks out avenues to cold IMO.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Just be careful with that severe-weather-weenie site.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    We probably need something like this to reconfigure the Pacific, even if it means this coming season sucks, of which I am not convinced..
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    .94"
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, I hear that....but first of all, I feel as though at this range, the reluctance to forecast an event of an unprecedented magnitude/nature should take precedence with any ultimate capitulation reserved for closer lead times. In other words....in July, it's safer to heavily incorporate analogs and if it still looks unprecedented later this summer and into the fall, then revisit. Secondly, this is just me musing when I offer guesstimates in the forum like that...it's not as though I'm issuing any type of published forecast online or anything.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I was saying it would end up centered around 140W.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    How do you access 33? I had a membership over there, but all I can find is the X and Facebook accounts....
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Oh, I know...he has a lot to offer...he used to DM me some times in the lead up to large events. He just doesn't take this site seriously, which is fine, but in that case just lurk.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    EURO def. in the CFS camp by the look of NDJ, which is what I would expect.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Def. a risk with a pumped STJ....see 2016. More often than not, that is more of a worry for NNE.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, all of the data is available in this post above. Check how closely CANSIPS resembles Modoki data set.
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