40/70 Benchmark

F^ck that. Next-

Winter Poised To Return Next Week As Scheduled Increasing Storm Risk Will Accompany Colder Pattern The Descent & Stretching Of Polar Vortex It was reiterated by Eastern Mass Weather last week that a positive TNH pattern would begin to establish itself around the middle of the month, which is a theme that has been consistently advertised list last fall. It was asserted that this new pattern would stabilize by approximately January 20th, at which point a slew of moderate winters storms would ensue as the PV meanders in the general vicinity of James Bay. This +TNH configuration is clearly materializing by early next week, with a colder resurgence accompanying the establishment of the PV near James Bay, Canada, and the first of probably sequence of winter storms organizing. Although the +TNH pattern is often accompanied by lower heights out west given the tendency for southeast ridging, the expectation from Eastern Mass Weather was that the development of a +PNA configuration would ensue during the month of January in conjunction with this pattern, and that is exactly what is poised ensue. As it turns out, it is the precise evolution of this PNA ridge out west that will have major implications on what exactly materializes on the east coast late next week and into the weekend. West Coast Ridge Crucial To Coast Storm Threats Next Week The current interval of RNA that began near the end of November has been a very prominent and protracted one indeed, having persisted for approximately six weeks. Eastern Mass Weather used history as a guide last fall in positing that the consistently negative PNA values from December would give way to a mean positive PNA in the mean during the month of January. This notion was recently buttressed by data provided by Don Sutherland of Americanwx forums, which indicated that 10/10 -PNA streaks of 35 days or greater during the months of November-December since 1980, have averaged positive over the subsequent 30 day period. Data Courtesy of Don Sutherland While guidance has been slow to adjust to this notion, it has, and there is is evidence that is continuing to do so even as the PNA finally recovers to positive values today. Note that the guidance from just one week ago had the RNA returning as early as the 15th of January, which Eastern Mass Weather correctly identified as incorrect. Sure enough, the most recent data indicates that this transition has now been delayed 4 days to January 19th. This an internal part of the forecast for the +TNH pattern that is becoming established for the latter half of January because the addition of a +PNA in this type of pattern will increase the likelihood of significant, and perhaps even major east coast cyclogenesis, as opposed to the traditional overrunning type of precipitation events that typically rule these sort of regimes. This is due to the fact that southeast heights are often elevated enough to compress the flow when abutting against the colder, lower heights south of the PV over the Northeast, which shears storms. However, this is mitigated largely neutralized by the PNA. This trend for a more protracted period of PNA is likely to continue given that the MJO will be approaching phase 7 at a relatively high amplitude just beyond the 20th of the month. This particular convective forcing regime across the tropical Pacific will constructively interfere with the amplification and maintenance of west coast ridging for the vast majority of the balance of January, despite what guidance currently implies. Note how crucial the position and orientation of said ridge is to the evolution of the potential interval of storminess along the east coast late next week. The first wave of energy on Friday is unlikely to coalesce quickly and proficiently enough to yield a major storm given the location and especially the orientation of the the west coast ridge, as was the often the case last season. However, the western ridge positions itself in a manner that is more favorable for significant northeast US storm impacts by next Friday, as the predecessor ocean storm exits stage right. The region is poised for the first in what is likely to be a series of winter storms with MJO assist next weekend, although precipitation type issues are likely to join the fray with subtle retreat of the PV. More updates to follow this week.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/01/winter-poised-to-return-next-week-as.html

"Very high" in terms of confidence that it will snow, or "very high" in terms of the perceived ceiling....

Are you surprised by how good it is?

Well, urinating on the napkin would take care of that, too. You must not read my storm forecasts...they really aren't long.

If there is that much, the family will be sent away and my schlong will be out on the table hovering over the maps

You posted that my forecasts are too long and difficult to understand, that's why I posted that....just ball busting back, but if you had a seasonal effort, post it and let's compare...

Right, and then watch it be a monster-east based event.

Hey, I never thought I'd be on the verge of 8 consecutive shitty seasons, but here we are....and for the record, I have utterly pantsed Webb so far this season.

If one is a CT to Scooter special and the other one pounds MHT points north, I am absolutely going to be sectioned.

I have seen him do that, but I think he is guilty of what a lot of us are...when a situation sucks, or goes to shit...we tend to disappear like that Homer Simpson GIF into the bushes lol We have all done it.

Yea, I believe him....like I said, I didn't see it.

@brooklynwx99 I have all the respect in the world for you guys that are bright enough to earn that degree because I am not. I could not ever do it. I am truly obsessed with certain aspects of meteorology and I have good writing skills, that's it.

I didn't see the interaction....I'm just using your comment as a launching pad to make that comment. Nothing personal at all.

He likes to point out the avenues to a successful solution...it's not wrong, per se...it's easy for people to project frustration onto that type of poster after 8 consecutive dud seasons. I think he knows his stuff....but I did roll my eyes when he mentioned his college accolades....no one cares about your GPA in any field...it's all about how practically skilled you are, and can other human begins stand you. There are plenty of degreed mets that I would forecast the pants off of with respect to winter weather in this region....synoptically, or seasonally. At the end of the day, how passionate are you and how obsessively do you seek to hone your craft. Those are the two most important boxes to check emphatically. This can't just be a job or hobby....weather needs to be a clinical affliction to excel.

Yea, just did all of the lights.

I'd rather worry about that than confluence....SSTs down near 40 and dropping, so getting tough to totally bone me that way....

Man, 8 holiday seasons I have been at this house, and it's the first time I had difficulty extracting my xmas light laser stake from the ground....I figured after a couple of warm days, now was the time...but I still had to pour 3 full glasses of hot water at the base of it and pull with all of my might with gloves on...finally. Ground is really frozen with the lack of deep snow cover and consistent cold...the likes of which I haven't seen in a long time. Going to be an absolutely dreadful pothole season.

I know...nothing against you. I just need to laugh because otherwise I'll cry.

I wish I could measure your movies with a yardstick...it would be a much more wintry decade.

Definite late-blooming Miller B-east run.

..but rain in eastern Mass....:

Yea, I mean...those are Ginx specials since he gets off to minimum central pressure and beach erosion. All I care about is how deeply my yardstick becomes submerged.

TBH, I'd prefer like 970-980....the super intense lows always do strange things with QPF and end up porking in terms of snowfall...like that Jan 4th deal back in 2018.