40/70 Benchmark

The more you have, the more is lost to settling/sublimation.

The concern there is the gradient between the NAO block and the se height bump via RNA....I think I'd prefer to play it safe and just do overruning rather than try for a coastal in that setup.

Nice looking tarrot card.

+QBO...too early to say on El Nino, but we're due for a Modoki El Nino...some of these cool ENSO seasons that are inundated with warmth throughout the western subsurface, such as 1967-1968 and 2008-2009, are predisposed to Modoki El Nino the following season...see 1968-1969 and 2009-2010.

Seasonal forecasting is like any other challenging endeavor...put the work in to learn from your mistakes and you'll be successful. Some are challenge-averse and that can't be helped.

I've been feasting for 3 months TBH.

I beg to differ.

Separate.

That is my inclination.

Depends on orientation.

That would be surprising.

Vintage 1980s aluminum can haha

Last fall, I assumed that the strong PV accompanying the +TNH would be more coupled with the troposphere, so I thought we would have +NAO, that is why I originally forecast the blocking to redevelop for early March. I missed the late January -NAO accompanying the +TNH, which is why it was colder than even I had thought.

Oh...I misunderstood your post...I thought you were saying heights in the mid latitudes. Yes, since we are already in deep -NAO/-AO, there should be much of a lag. I mentioned that in my update on Wednesday. My bad...agree.

I'd just assume be done with it if that's the case, but no choice.

Tough season for Mr. Webb.

-PNA for February is non-negotiable IMHO....always has been.

It's still a bit west of 2015 IMHO...it does look like we may finally be seeing a light at the end of the tunnel, but not enough for this season IMHO. Next year could be great.

Until this changes, we are going to remain largely cursed with respect to east coast phasing IMHO.

Last storm was a way around that due to the extreme nature of the airmass...but it wasn't a big, phased coastal until it got beyond us.

Still looks pinned to MC to me, and the behavior of the MJO this season reflects that. We have gotten the cold due to the combo of weak-east biased La Nina, strong East QBO and near solar max (as I explained ad nauseum last fall), but notice the big east coast storms still remain absent.

We should be able to score some of that in Feb given the RNA and relaxed -WPO.

Frustrating, but all I can do is hit the LES belts when I retire.

It's because of the MJO IMHO.....if you notice, it always finds a way to minimize both residence and amplitude in phase 8...and even the few days it spends there, it's some non-comital BS like split-forcing. The fast flow is what it is, but it's not fast enough to prevent bombs for the Great Lakes and Canadian Maritimes. I do think CC plays a role, but it's more about the disproportionate warming in the West Pacific predisposing the convective forcing to MC positioning, while repelling it from the more favorable (relative to east coast cyclogenesis) dateline and African continent.