Jump to content

40/70 Benchmark

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    79,938

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm not forecasting above normal snowfall or below average temps for the season...just to be clear.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not to mention....1972 and 2015 featured such a dearth of snow up here due to supression during colder intervals, NOT continuously prohibitive warmth. Now we expect a STJ displaced futher to the north as a byproduct of CC, which I think is a net gain up here despite a warmer mean. Christ, give me the keystone event of the season further north if it means the season is +7 instead of +5.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Wonder if anbody stopped and wondered what will happen if they issue a stop-payment on their subscription?
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    We have talked about this and it's the recent why I am employing the "reversal" terminology moving forward, rather than SSW to avoid these scientific inconsistencies.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    On a national level, of course given the background warming in conjunction with how much OHC has built up to trigger this unprecedented El Niño, but I'm not concerned with that....no one in their right mind is disputing the notion of a very mild season in the DJFM seasonal mean. I don't think the folks like bviking, who laugh at each one of my insights, have really wrapped their minds around what I am saying. What I am focused on is that the prospects for a large east coast winter storm should be heightened relative to 2023 and probably even 2015 given the absence of MC convective forcing. Yes, this season is more east-based than 2015....but it's also less MC-based, as well. You can't obsess over the background warming and neglect the implications of having absolutely no convection in the MC because it means that source of destructive interference for major east coast cyclogenesis is removed during those fleeting colder intervals. I feel as though you are playing with fire if you disregard the prospects for any major winter weather along the east coast with a STJ that potent in conjunction with all CP and EP forcing....the reality is that ALL THREE of this seasons produced snowfalls of well over a foot on the CP of SNE, and 2/3 had substantial MC contribution, so I think folks need to cool it with the group think philosophy and pry open their minds a bit.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I assume this is a typo.....
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Here is my track record for the 15 cities that I do seasonal snowfall forecasts for....mid Atlantic killed me in a couple of seasons....13th will be next week.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm not as resigned to a bottom-dweller season as you are.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    The system that dropped a 40_spot on PVD was just outside....
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Chris only does calls out to like 3 weeks, which he is very skilled at...but he does tend to have CC autism, just as we do with respect to snow. It is a "spectrum", you know.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    I got like 10"...I went to sleep very early on because I knew it wasn't my storm...just like in the Jan 2022 event. The lead-up is exhausting, so if I don't think it will produce to a level commensurate to hope/expectations, then I check out.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    No one is infallible...I'm disregarding. Who knows, maybe he caught a buzz and was feeling gitty....dude is human-
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Maybe it lingered just long enough at 70mb to help trigger this...who knows....
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Why celebrate your kid's 1st grade graduation, or take pride in dropping 30lbs....the rate of warming in the arctic is more impressive. I mean, if someone is in fact using a single storm or arctic outbreak as evidence against CC, then by all means....start the firing squad, but simply enjoying it for what it is? The fact that CC is in fact real warrants that we savor it even more TBH.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I understand that it's true, but given the rarity of blizzards of that magnitude, it just seems tone-deaf. I'm not angry...I just don't get it....sure, the anomaly with respect to the warmth is more impressive statistically speaking, but anyone with a pulse is more compelled by the anomaly that is magnificently impacting their sensible weather in the short-term. Focusing on the blizzard that is dropping 30" in your drive way and understanding that CC is real are not mutually exclusive...why is their this tacit mindset that you're in denial unless you're strutting around nude on main street with a banner touting your ever-expanding Hadley Cell. Shit, strap on a loin-cloth and enjoy the fruits of ma-nature; smoke 'em if ya got 'em, as fleeting as they may be. I mean, I got married, had 4 kids, launched a career and purchased a home..."geez, look at that guy, he's in denial about his own mortality"... "Why bother, he's just going to die anyway, idiot"-
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    March could snap back...
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    There was literally a generational blizzard ongoing last February, and he was posting images illustrating how the magnitude of that the anomaly paled in comparison to the warmth in the southwest....love-ya-mean-it, Chris...but wow-
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    I love a lot of his data, but the instinct to compulsively extinguish any potential hope for winter is uncanny....it's like Robo Cop or Terminator...whereas you don't even have to explicitly express optimism, but if his sensors flag data he perceives as something that could theoretically engender even a modicum of hope, he pounces.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Jesus, Chris....we get it. There's no hope. "My beach umbrella is bigger than your snow shovel"
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Including 1997 as an analog isn't intellectually lazy in and of itself....it's in my composite with ample data to support it. You can identify MC forcing by looking at where the velocity potential, highest precipitation rate and OLR are focused....if it's in the MC, then it's MC forcing. This year it is not....2023 it was, 2015 it was somewhat....I don't see this year being dry given the intensity of El Niño and absence of MC forcing.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    The incompetence watch has been upgraded to a warning.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Of course it's going to be masked by the strongest El Nino in history in the seasonal mean, the question is whether it portends a favorable stretch of two during the winter, which often makes the difference between a bottom-dwelling winter in terms of snowfall and a middling season.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm not a huge SAI guy, but I heard both SCE and SAI are at record levels....noteworthy, anyway if true.
×
×
  • Create New...