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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Gonna look at everything this weekend and probably write something up.....maybe also urinate a snowflake onto a napkin for Steve to understand.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    That looked like a Miller B-East job to me.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I think seeing Brian loop that convinced me it would have ended well...not that it matters.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    My storm forecasts aren't actually long...it's only the seasonal outlook.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, I always include a map, so if that isn't clear enough for you...IDk.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Very low confidence on this....but the 2013 analog that I discussed with Will is in the back of my mind and we do have some catching up to do. I like early March better, but eyes should be peeled in February. I was so torn on including that year in my February composite, but opted against at the last moment bc it was too warm ENSOish...but I wouldn't argue with anyone that did.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Put the lips' n' hips on ice, the dog logs should be covered soon.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    No doubt it's radiational cooling when I am lower than you lol
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would bet anyone, any amount of money the monkey is long gone by February 1.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I was a bit surprised it got down to 19.8....figured there would have been a higher launching pad. I'm sure it's mostly fake born of radiational cooling and will be wiped out shortly, but still-
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Combination of cold and low solar irradiance has really maximized snow cover.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think spiking the MJO amplitude in phase 7 later this month would further bolster confidence in this outcome, but my confidence is already pretty high.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Man, no wonder you've both been so cranky...4 years...
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Absolutely....many on social media, including DT, are always inclined to rush the demise of ENSO. It's tiresome. I do expect the PNA to be the primary catalyst for some significant snowfall here in short order, as I do not expect NE coastal snowfall to remain this paltry.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't mean "deathblow" to winter...as in winter over; quite the opposite. It's just getting started, as frustrating as it's been.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I mean that that PV is going to ultimately incur a severe disruption that will end in a split, after the stretching of the next few weeks.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    I was just mentioning in the ENSO thread, we are going to stretch the shit out of the PV during the second half of January, then the death-blow will come in February....we should end up splitting that b!tch in two. The +TNH setting up next week is the precursor to that major wave 2 disruption that will culminate in a February split. We are going places pattern wise, and the snow should follow suite.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    The theme for latter January will be stretching....the knock out punch comes in February.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Cold, icy and windy has characterized this winter so far.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    There will be something of significance this month...we aren't making it to February in single-digits.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    I like that period better......beyond mid-month.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well said. I think CC is playing a part in the absence of winter weather over the past several years, but it's not "the new norm"....it's just accentuating and protracting these oscillations. Just my take...I think it also played a role in the snow-blitz of 2015.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    The first one that I buy is the Adams total.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Kicking myself for not hitting 2017 harder in my December composite....would have mitigated missing on the magnitude of the cold.
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