40/70 Benchmark

I putting the finishing touches on my stuff....just about done. If not this weekend, Monday,

No surprise to me....I was saying I wasn't at all considering La Niña peaking early when you commented on the subsurface warmth last month. Same thing happened over the summer, and in 2008....which peaked LATE.

I would not expect a very cold Decemer, - NAO just delivers consistently pedestrian departures. You need the +TNH get really cold values...and this is assuming tha the -NAO isn't overdone, which it probably is.

135.5 Final ACE

Found it. If Anthony didn't post the EURO, then the EURO looks just like whatever he posted.

I think the absence of a severe RNA would also help...sure, the Pac jet would still mitigate KU potential, but it's not absolutely prohibitive to more moderate events.

Anyone have the EURO PV forecast?

The big rise since July was a given....it was at record levels.

I did wonder about warm ENSO before spring, but quickly relazed it wasn't happening. I do think we are nearing a PDO shift, but obviously not there yet.

Anyone know where Judah's fraud index landed? Guessing about normal?

Apprently all 5,323 -IOD graphics were earth shattering, even though no one can say definitevely how manifests into the pattern.

Yes, it's not ideal, though I would gladly take heaping serving of December 2007 with a side of December 2008. The ceiling in any single event isn't there, but they are defintely the safer bet in terms of a floor my area. There is a wide array of ways for my area to get proked in coastals, and I have found just about ever single one of them this decade independent of CC.

I'm confident that isn't permanent. SE Canada is going to get colder, as we saw last year and are likely about to again. That helps the NE more than the mid atl, but it is what it is.

It's definitely not zero....but I don't view this as a season that screams "KU".

I think it will be tough for VA.

I agree with what you are saying, but I highly doubt this "screw zone" is permanent...part of the issue has been the lack of cold in SE Canada, which seems to be changing, so there will be more snow indepenedent of BM blizzards.

Absolutely. Makes perfect sense. My guess is that we can, but will have to "make hay", so to speak in reduced intervals of time relative to similar patterns in the past.

Your contention is that the warm pool creates a +WPO pattern that promotes both a western storm track, and a fast jet that knocks down PNA ridges/shears phasing attempts and causes suppression, correct?

Yes. I agree with the vast majority of what you are saying.

I think the strat may offer some assistance late season, but if it doesn't, all bets are off. I will posting my thoughts early next week....a great deal of time is spent addressing many of the CC related issues that @bluewaveraises.

I am referring you the attribution aspect and what it means moving forward, but will leave it at that because nothing constructive will come of it.

I actually like February better than most of January.

Here is a snippet from my outlook, which I'm still balls deep in. So much for the warm pool ending La Nina prematurely. During the month of October, there was some speculation in certain weather circles that La Niña may meet a premature demise owed to an encroachment of the subsurface warm pool from the west. However, Eastern Mass Weather cited the strong Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), as well as a precedent for a the subsurface cold pool to recover after a retreat to the east during last summer as protective factors against an earlier than forecast peak. Comparisons were also made to the subsurface of the 2008, which had similar subsurface warmth on the western flank and still did not peal until mid winter. This has analysis has ultimately proven correct, as the subsurface warmth has reclaimed much of the western flank of region 3.4 and event some of region 4 on the heels of consistent trades bursts