40/70 Benchmark

3.25" Nice event.

3.25"

I actually have a shot to get the best of both worlds this weekend....usually the opposite in that I just miss out on both.

Wanna hear a dirty little secret...come closer....(whispers) today was my largest event of the season....

3.25" here. Zero complaints....at all. See, don't need to jack.

Significant Snowfall Likely Sunday Night Into Early Sunday Light To Moderate Totals Region Wide Winter Finally Picks Up The Pace The pace of winter storms has picked up past the halfway point of the month, as advertised last fall. Indeed, the final flakes from today's snowfall are still fluttering to the surface, yet the arrival of the next storm is already within 12 hours. Synoptic Overview It is a subtle variation of the orientation of the Western CONUS ridge that is allowing the incoming system to track closer to the coast than advertised by the consensus, as outlined last week. Note the positive tilt of the ridge as the system on Friday departed. Versus the orientation of said ridge this weekend. This will allow for more amplification and thus a closer track than the Friday wave, however, yet another incoming system dropping into the midwest on it's heels will limit just how much it can amplify in this fast, progressive flow. There was a brief period last night where it seemed as though this "kicker" would exert enough of an influence to prevent much of a storm at all, despite said amplification and the eventual negative tilt of the trough. However, it is now clear the original idea of a light to moderate snowfall will indeed materialize. That being said, there is not much of a ceiling for higher amounts due to the presence of the aforementioned "kicker" system upstream. This will ensure that our storm on Sunday night will remain progressive enough to ensure that the low will not close off in the mid levels of the atmosphere until it passed our latitude and approaching the Canadian Maritimes. This will limit moisture flow and thus limit heavier banding, which means that amounts of 6"+ will be scarce if existent at all. Expected Storm Evolution Snow will break out around dawn on Sunday over southwestern Connecticut. Light Snowfall will then overspread the rest of the region throughout the balance of the morning, with the focus being over central areas, as a lead finger of lift approaches ahead of the main system. Light and spotty mixed precipitation likely over the cape and islands at this time. There may be somewhat of a lull during the afternoon on Sunday as the initial lift weakens in advance of the main storm. Snow will then become steadier and pick up in intensity again over tall but far western Massachusetts, as the coastal storm approaches and begins to intensify on Sunday evening, at which point mixed precipitation transitions to rain on the outer cape and Nantucket island. The storm will begin to pull by midnight, as precipitation slowly lightens from west to east, and any residual mixed precipitation or rainfall over the cape and islands transitions back to snow. This is where the majority of accumulation will take place over the outer cape and Nantucket Island. Snow should be ending by shortly after dawn on Monday, although snow showers may perhaps be protracted a bit over eastern locales, as upper level energy feeds into the offshore storm. Final Call:

Best shot at tomorrow....man, just get this over....what a PIA. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/01/significant-snowfall-likely-sunday.html Final Call:

I must have misunderstood/missed something.

850 low doesn't close until it's gone.

3"

Same winners as today.

2"

Yea, I have been aggressive on this from the get-go, aside from when I got skiddish last night, but I don't see enough evidence that the kicker will allow this to congeal enough in the vicinity of our area to have those mid levels close quickly enough.

We'll see...gotta slow the flow down some...will be tough to pull off if that doesn't happen.

IDK, I wouldn't hammer mid level banding too much....looks like it's past us by the time H85 closes, NVM H7.

I'm sure Allison would agree....probably even more.

With any luck at all, March 2018 incoming....I'm telling you, this is glaring.

There actually is an emergent signal already....maybe it gets abandoned at some point, but this should ultimately grow.

I wouldn't expect guidance to pick up on any Strat shenanigans just yet....give it another couple of weeks.

You'e been all over that John, nice.

Snow growth is phenomenal here right now...

Man, Boris, you and CoastalWx need to get a room-

IF the midlevels get cranking, it's usually near the QPF gradient as a crude rule-of-thumb.

Nah, 3-5"....but all set with 10" on the s shore, 3" here and 6" in MHT.