40/70 Benchmark

Looks to be a severe -WPO/EPO.....somewhat +PNA and a modestly -NAO/AO. PNA and especially AO are iffy...

Not that this is right per se, because it probably isn't....but I'm not sure folks appreciate just how cold this is given the 1984-2009 climo base. If I were planning to copy and paste a composite of the past ten winters as some often muse, this would give me pause.

It's coming.

CFS for December:

I don't think it's means much in the sense that it will nail the forecast per se, as the CFS is really only useful anout a month out; however, it is very notable because the model is usually warm in the winter.

I give you guys credit for forecasting a lame tropical season, but the consensus was not at all for a hyper active season.

Mot of us have already been using this for a few seasons.

Those 4 seasons are all normal to slightly above normal snowfall around here.

Yea, I don't know where all of the cries over failed hyper activity calls come from....majority of what I saw was like a tic above average.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/08/preview-of-extra-tropical-pacific-for.html https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/08/preview-of-polar-domain-for-winter-2025.html

I think that is a given.

I guess I am talking about widespread 20"+....

I guess that is KU material for you guys, but certainly not something I would consider high-end.

2013-2014 also didn't have any higher end KU events if I am not mistaken....perhaps I am, not sure. But I know for my area, there were no really memorable events, which are tougher to achieve without a well placed PNA ridge. It's much easier to get more moderate snowfalls, which is mostly what we saw. Anyway, like I said...no absolutes. You don't absolutely NEED the PNA to cooperate...you can still time everything perfectly, but it's just much tougher.

It's much easier to have east coast winter weather in general without an active PAC jet...I'm not arguing it's favorable. But it's not the only reason the east coast has been struggling. The pattern has sucked. We did manage a -WPO in 2021-2022.

That was one of the most severe -WPO seasons on record. Like I said, nothing operates in a vacuum and there are no absolutes. Lets look at the following year....we must really want an extraordinarily +AO/NAO than.

Yes.

If you view the dailies from the dates of major storms, the PNA ridge is centred just off of the west coast. I don't care how fast the PAC jet is, that wouldn't have worked out in 1852. I do agree that PAC jet has been an issue in general, as it makes it more difficult to time the palcement of the PNA ridge correctly, and for it not to fold too quickly. Here is a prime example from last winter of the Pacific jet undercutting a +PNA ridge and thus tilting it positively, leading to a failed phase attempt on the east coast.

Mentioned before, I am confident this will be BS this season. Will revisit next spring.

It didn't work out because the PNA ridges consistently positioned off of the west coast. Put it over the chinmey of Idaho and it will work.

I think the PNA will be volatile and average near neutral...we should be a big +month in January that will coincide with +NAO.

I prefer to study females, but you do you.

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/atmoswrit/map/index.html

I think it's one of the more helpful teleconnectors in terms of individual storms, but I would take the -EPO for starters during a given season....getting a vortex over AK is the kiss of death for any season.

I think there can start to be some positive feedback, but it's defintely not the primary catalyst. Agreed.