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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't we particularly prone because baseline assumptions aren't high...everyone excepts at least one month of like +8....
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    I like the MEI for coupling...I use the RONI more to gage how much MC influence there may be as a result of SST thermal distribution, but kind of related...
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Tri.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, that fits...we've avoided the big heat, but def. not fall like.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, but not just him...it's been pretty widespread. Doesn't seem like a cool pattern to me. It's not "hot", but seems at least seasonable...
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I am at 2.8-3.0 RONI and 3.2 to 3.4 ONI peak as now.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I had .45"...largely from one early PM heavy shower.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    All I keep reading on social media is how summer is over, fall is here in the east, blah, blah...then I look at the official forecast, and it's 80s for as far as the eye can see.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Once we get past cool ENSO episode, it's lights-out for the multidecadal Pac cold phase.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    You can never get a 500mb forecast composite to look perfect, though....especially considering CC because you have to use analog years to construct them.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I went with a preliminary .35 to .65 for DJFM mean PNA, and -.02 to .27 PDO. I feel comfortable with that.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    @Stormchaserchuck1I understand how the low the heights are in the N Pacific and into the SE CONUS on that comppsite...this is just preliminary. I'll probably make an adjustment to the final composite to address that, especially if El Niño continues to struggle to couple throughout the mid latitudes of the N Hem well into the fall...like subtracting a very early climo period rather than 1951-2020.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm just being a d1ck. What other factors do you feel are influencing it?
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Pretty good consensus between my composites.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Early work on the Extra tropical Pacific is done. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/08/preliminary-assessment-of-extratropical.html
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Pretty good consensus between my composites.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Early work on the Extra tropical Pacific is done. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/08/preliminary-assessment-of-extratropical.html
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yup, and I do think it will get more redolent of El Niño in the mid latitudes throughout the n hemisphere.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    I haven't been having an issue.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is why the pattern in the mid latitudes hasn't been more redolent of El Nino this summer. El Niño in the tropics, of course: Mid latitudes, not so much.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    I wonder if this has to do with climate change? That is, if the climate were actually changing....
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Every other week for me, but may miss this week.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think it's significant in the absolute sense in that a scenario where the ONI is higher is indicative of a different Pacific landscape than if the RONI were higher, however, I agree regarding the data source variation....it's likely just data set differences.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Your research on these patterns is a life-saver in terms of time trying to do these blogs with 4 little kids. haha.
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