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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agreed.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    I am speaking in the present....I agree there is a chance that this one can become a more prominent hemispheric driver, but we aren't there yet. This is all I meant on Sunday when I Said El Nino still had work to do.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    The influence of ENSO, especially warm ENSO, is more geographically restricted now and more largely relegated to the tropics, regardless of it's intensity. Powerful events are more influential....in the tropics. However, the mid latitudes are now more dictated by these marine heat waves and expanding ridges. I get what Adam is saying....this El Nino is a powerhouse, but it's just that it's more the scope of Andrew rather than Katrina.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Exactly what I was getting at the past couple of days...pattern resembles La Nina right now. In the past, this would imply a flaw in the development of El Nino, whether it be weak and/or poorly coupled. However, that is not necessarily the case in our modern climate. Powerful, well coupled warm ENSO and cold phase Pacific are no longer mutually exclusive due to the degree of heat that is now stored in the Pacific basin. ENSO simply isn't as prominent a driver anymore because it's partially offset and this is what RONI tries to convey. I think Adam perceived this as me saying that El Nino isn't as well developed as most think, but that is not at all the case. It's just facing more prominent competition from around the hemisphere relative to it's predecessors.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    If possible, 1941-1970 and 1961-1980 would be ideal.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, we aren't getting a "high-end" season with an El Nino that potent even if everything worked out perfectly...just too great a volume of Miller A systems. I will bet anything that the signature storm of the season will jackpot the mid atlantic...maybe we still get slammed, but to a lesser extent. Our ceiling this season is normal to maybe about 10-12" above normal snowfall....like 1965-1966. But odds strongly favor less than that.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Appreciate that...no worries at all. We're all very passionate about the weather.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Solar-nape season ends in 4 weeks.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is what I was trying to get across to Adam. Like I have been saying, this isn't something I want, so it's not out of bias. @bluewave can tell you how I resistant I was to the idea in the lead up to 2023...I mocked him and made light of it, and the dude nailed it. No harm in getting it wrong....we all do, just learn from it and be willing to adapt.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Clearly this will be one of, if not the most powerful El Niño events on record. I was never debating that, but all I meant earlier is that it's fair to wonder if some of these marine heat waves that are a consequence of a rapidly warming planet are providing stronger competition around the hemisphere with even the strongest of ENSO events. It seems clear to me that they are. It's not a matter of "El Niño isn't well enough coupled or strong enough"; there is simply a lot more heat distributed throughout the Pacific basin, regardless of what ENSO does.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    https://www.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/figures/db_hist_mon_tcc.html You can get VP here...
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    1982?
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    2015-2016 has been referenced quite frequently for it's pretty abrupt transition to some wintry interludes throughout the NE during the second half...I wouldn't say they aren't remembered. It's just that they weren't as anomalous or long-lasting as the warmth in December, so the season was mild in the aggregate. I wouldn't be at all be surprised to see something similar this year.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Exactly.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Very feasible....I don't debate that.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think it would be warmer if El Niño DIDN'T take over entirely. Anyway, all I said was El Niño still has work to do....I never even implied that there is no chance that it will not take over the hemisphere entirely this fall.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Adam ( @snowman19)....as a clinician, this is an honest suggestion....look into this. This is my only contribution to this thread. I have used it as a clinician and a patient, so it's not meant as an insult. I think the latter two skills would be particularly beneficial for you. Dialectical Behavior Therapy The 4 Core Skills Modules DBT skills are divided into two acceptance-oriented modules and two change-oriented modules: [1] Mindfulness: The foundation of DBT. It teaches you to stay present, observe your emotions without judgment, and focus on the current moment. [1, 2, 3] Distress Tolerance: Helps you get through crisis situations without making them worse (e.g., using physical sensations like holding ice cubes to tolerate intense urges). [1, 2] Emotion Regulation: Teaches you to identify, name, and change specific emotions, reducing your overall vulnerability to negative emotional spirals. [1, 2, 3, 4] Interpersonal Effectiveness: Equips you with tools to ask for what you need, say "no" to demands, and maintain your self-respect and relationships.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I injected some sarcasm by mocking him a bit....guilty; but there was no need for the absurd racism accusation. Anyone with any familiarity with this thread knew what I was doing there. He has a tendency to respond to resistance in this truly vile manner that usually includes very derogatory insults, and in this case, a pathetic attempt to inject race as a means to vilify me rather than simply address the point. Primitive deflection tactic.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    As do I......I also have hope that one day you will succeed in wrapping your mind around the fact that a well coupled El Niño is not mutually exclusive with some residual MC influence throughout the hemisphere.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Shocking that only one of us in this thread has a history of being 5 PPD...can't possible think of why.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Larry, I don't see the issue with reenforcing the fact that this July has been more representative of the -PDO data set and it has the developing super El Niño.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    What? Why don't you formulate a cohesive counter to the point rather than deflecting with silly attempts to inject race into the issue and copy and paste a slew of tweets. I'm a licensed social worker with 4 African children and an African wife, who was mocking your proclivity to scan every crevice of the internet for tweets to quote that fit your bizarre ENSO agenda.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    For the record, this is worse for winter than a classic super El Niño look...I have no interest in MC influence for the coming winter, but I have even less interest in cherry picking data.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Hey @snowman19, maybe you find find some tweets in Swahili that will convince us this July has shaped up like this.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    The fact that we still have a very healthy -PDO in place tells me this El Niño has some work to do with respect to vanquishing the competing MC influence, regardless of how man posts we can find on the internet suggesting otherwise.
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