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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    As an anecdotal note, I think the run of "bad luck" for the east coast has come to an end and feel like we are starting to more efficiently cash in for a while. Just a hunch.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'll bet if we did 1997 over again, it would work out somewhat better for my area.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I agree that it could have turned out better than it did with a little luck, but I would take 1982 12x over 1997. Dec 1997 had a great storm here just before Xmas, which was the one good event that entire wretched season.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think it's important to not get too cute with the EMI when ENSO gets this strong because all of them are going to be "basin wide" in the sense that the anomalies will encompass the entirety of the ENSO area. Good luck getting 2.5C in the east or west, and having 0C on the other end. This is why I'm not really focused too much on EMI.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Another nod towards 1997.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Usually the seasonal guidance will be biased towards stock ENSO, so when a seasonal model shows that output leading into an intense El Nino episode, it should provide reason for pause.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I do think we need to remain mindful of the fact that there has been some sort of shift in the North Pacific the past couple of years....the dominant +WPO is over. That was part of the reason 2023, and that several year stretch, was so mild in the NE.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Am I sold on a torch? No, but it's very possible.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    No, I wouldn't. Did you see my May blog?
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Kind of looks like last winter with a STJ added. Interesting.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Bob was a yawner for most.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    1.03" total rainfall.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, it's all connected...sure, the RONI only measures the oceans, but I think the warming oceans are somewhat connected to the more pronounced 500MB ridges....I think there is an element of feedback at play. Bottom line is there is more heat, which is being reflected in the ocean and the atmosphere, but it just so happens that the RONI only measures the former...so technically, yes...it certainly goes beyond the RONI.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    It is. The Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI.v2) is a comprehensive climate index used to measure the intensity and phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It improves upon single-variable indices by combining five oceanic and atmospheric variables across the tropical Pacific: sea surface temperatures, sea-level pressure, surface winds, and outgoing longwave radiation
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, air pressure is an element of the MEI, I believe.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is why I feel we want a high RONI during an El Nino event....the RONI represents a spectrum, or continuum if you will, of the ability of warm ENSO to modulate the north Pacific versus the baseline trend that is more reflective of CC, which is cool ENSO like. I think folks obfuscate this with the MEI, which simply measures the intensity of the warm ENSO coupling. RONI is not so much about the intensity of the coupling, but the war waged between ENSO and competing hemispheric forces.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not that it is going to flip on a dime, but the last -AMO cycle coincided with the negative portion of the multidecadal NAO cycle in the 60s. I think we are more likely to see a modified version of that (CC) around and after the solar min early next decade. This season should be decidedly positive.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think Boris would like that very much.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    February 1969 in May, yay.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Perhaps you and @CoastalWxcan rent a cabin together in the wilderness of Maine?
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Okay, I stand corrected. Colder than I recalled.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    It wasn't supposed to be as warm as it was, which is the point. It was supposed to be mild, though. Yea, I def. fell into that trap to a degree.......it's tough to wipe the slate clean an not try to overcompensate for the previous effort's errors. Hey, least we know I don't have unilateral cold bias now. haha I def. thought the polar domain would prevent a 1972 redux that season, but it didn't work out. The other mistake I made was misinterpreting the competing cool ENSO influence as some sort of Modoki influence.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, what could go wrong, went wrong that season.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I was thinking the same thing. That was supposed to be a mild winter that ended up even milder than expected.
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