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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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First Legit Storm Potential of the Season Upon Us
40/70 Benchmark replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
I stand with the pope. -
First Legit Storm Potential of the Season Upon Us
40/70 Benchmark replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
Yea, no one expects a blizzard. -
First Legit Storm Potential of the Season Upon Us
40/70 Benchmark replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
Jesus, time to step away for a while. -
First Legit Storm Potential of the Season Upon Us
40/70 Benchmark replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
I think some sort of compromise is in store. -
First Legit Storm Potential of the Season Upon Us
40/70 Benchmark replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
Can include here. -
First Legit Storm Potential of the Season Upon Us
40/70 Benchmark replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
@The 4 Seasons@RUNNAWAYICEBERG Not to clutter the thread, but I honestly didn't even mean to exclude CT in the sentiment expressed in that title.....truth is, I'm often rushed maintaining that blog with a full-time, part-time job and 4 little kids. -
First Legit Storm Potential of the Season Upon Us
40/70 Benchmark replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
Could be, but I feel like this has a better chance for reasons stated. Doesn't have to work out... -
First Legit Storm Potential of the Season Upon Us
40/70 Benchmark replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
I never saw the problem before, which is the point that is apparently lost on you. -
First Legit Storm Potential of the Season Upon Us
40/70 Benchmark replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
Probably a terd on my face -
First Legit Storm Potential of the Season Upon Us
40/70 Benchmark replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
Odd to focus where you live, I know -
First Legit Storm Potential of the Season Upon Us
40/70 Benchmark replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
Kind of like how many of your maps focus on CT....funny how everyone is able to seamlessly wrap their mind around that. -
First Legit Storm Potential of the Season Upon Us
40/70 Benchmark replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
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First Legit Storm Potential of the Season Upon Us
40/70 Benchmark replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
EASTERNMASSweather... -
January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
40/70 Benchmark replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
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Winter 2025-2026 Offers Return to Normalcy
40/70 Benchmark replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
Significant Snows Possible Latter Half Of Holiday Weekend Eastern Mass Weather asserted late last week that a significant storm was highly unlikely to materialize on Friday into Saturday. However, there was a distinct possibility that the follow up wave could produce major winter storm this coming Sunday Monday, due in large part to subtle changes in the orientation of the western CONUS ridge. There is now a growing signal amongst guidance that such a storm may indeed materialize. Synoptic Overview There are no changes with respect to the prevailing thought process surrounding storm number one. The energy will simply fail to coalesce soon enough for the region to be impacted by a major winter storm due to the follow up disturbance triggering a reconfiguration of the western CONUS ridge into a more positive (southwest to northeast) orientation. This subtle change promotes a slower down stream evolution, which results in the energy phasing over the Canadien Maritimes instead of just off of the east coast. While this does not preclude snowfall, per se, it doe relegate the region to a lighter snowfall that may accumulate an inch or two over the higher terrain of the interior. These type of wave spacing issues, as referenced last week, were a common occurrence that consistently plagued storm potential last season. Thereafter, the amplification of the incoming trough over the midwest will allow for a reconfiguration of the ridge back to a more positive orientation. This will afford the system more of an opportunity to amplify fast enough to have a greater impact on the region by Sunday night into Monday. However, there remains considerable uncertainty concerning whether or not it will amplify fast enough to provide significant snows for all of the region, or whether the primary impact will be more confined to eastern zones. Anticipate a First Call on Friday. Threat Assessment -
Significant Snows Possible Latter Half Of Holiday Weekend Eastern Mass Weather asserted late last week that a significant storm was highly unlikely to materialize on Friday into Saturday. However, there was a distinct possibility that the follow up wave could produce major winter storm this coming Sunday Monday, due in large part to subtle changes in the orientation of the western CONUS ridge. There is now a growing signal amongst guidance that such a storm may indeed materialize. Synoptic Overview There are no changes with respect to the prevailing thought process surrounding storm number one. The energy will simply fail to coalesce soon enough for the region to be impacted by a major winter storm due to the follow up disturbance triggering a reconfiguration of the western CONUS ridge into a more positive (southwest to northeast) orientation. This subtle change promotes a slower down stream evolution, which results in the energy phasing over the Canadien Maritimes instead of just off of the east coast. While this does not preclude snowfall, per se, it doe relegate the region to a lighter snowfall that may accumulate an inch or two over the higher terrain of the interior. These type of wave spacing issues, as referenced last week, were a common occurrence that consistently plagued storm potential last season. Thereafter, the amplification of the incoming trough over the midwest will allow for a reconfiguration of the ridge back to a more positive orientation. This will afford the system more of an opportunity to amplify fast enough to have a greater impact on the region by Sunday night into Monday. However, there remains considerable uncertainty concerning whether or not it will amplify fast enough to provide significant snows for all of the region, or whether the primary impact will be more confined to eastern zones. Anticipate a First Call on Friday. Threat Assessment
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January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
40/70 Benchmark replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
I think some appreciable snow is a good bet. -
January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
40/70 Benchmark replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
It's coming. Bite, and bite down hard. -
January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
40/70 Benchmark replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
See...tilt that PNA ridge negatively instead of positively and everything congeals faster and more proficiently near the coast. -
January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
40/70 Benchmark replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
Told you guys last week this 18-19th deal was the one to watch- -
January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
40/70 Benchmark replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
Yes, it's not like the potential went unrealized on a hemispheric scale... -
January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
40/70 Benchmark replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
Shocked..... -
January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
40/70 Benchmark replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
The energy doesn't really coalesce until the Maritimes, though. Just didn't dig enough. -
January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
40/70 Benchmark replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
The persistent +WPO portion has obviously started to shift already, and the behavior of the MJO will eventually follow suite.....but that is lagging, which is at least part of the reason why we still have a dearth of large east coast storms despite a N Pac more conducive to cold...also some plane bad luck, I'm sure. -
January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
40/70 Benchmark replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
Well, the gradient between the stagnant cold over Siberia and warmth east of Japan not only accentuates the jet, but emphasizes the n PAC placement ...it goes hand-in-hand. That is starting to change... The Limitation of Traditional Conceptualizations In A Warming Climate The Relative Ocean Nino Index (RONI) attempts to remove the trend due to global warming in an effort to produce a measure that is of more direct relevance to changes in tropical convection driven by SST anomalies, rather than the general warming around the globe. This is similar to the issues addressed with respect to the original PDO patterns in that the general background warming alters these traditional relationships. Just as the west Pacific warm pool enhances the general cold phase of the Pacific despite the general warming along the coast of the western CONUS, it also strengthens the proclivity for the MJO to frequent the MC in a similar fashion to canonical La Nina despite any competing forces. In this case, the competing force is perhaps some heightened convection and vertical ascent in the vicinity of the dateline relative to what would normally be expected for a cool ENSO event. Thus it is probably unreasonable to expect as consistently of a cold pattern as seen in an older analog, such as 1995-1996, due to the increased baseline tendency for MC forcing and Pacific jet extensions. Note the absence of subsidence in the vicinity of the dateline in the traditional weak and east-based La Niña composites. However, the most recent weak and east-based events are not devoid of this Modoki like subsidence in this area, rather it is just more subdued. This is indicative of considerable periods of MC forcing and Pacific jet extensions, albeit less propounded than in a canonical La Niña that is more west-based. This is also illustrated by the aforementioned increase in the Pacific jet over time. How this manifests in terms of the RONI is that these modern La Niña events often have stronger RONI values due to the west Pacific warm pool accentuating the cool ENSO influence. This is what feedbacks into the pattern that reenforces the cold over Siberia and warmth east of Japan that embodies the +WPO regime, and strengthens the jet. Below is the progression over the past quarter of a century in the north Pacific relative to the intensity of the Aleutian low, as the attendant Hadley Cell has continued to expand northward. Note that this western Pacific warmth was less pronounced in the older La Nina analog composite, which is why the jet was weaker in the mean.
