Jump to content

40/70 Benchmark

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    79,871

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    2023 and 2001....
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, it probably won't be record setting....not intending to imply it's a physical implausibility. I get how anomalous this is...could also be a record deal nationally, but not in any one region.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    John, how do you feel about last winter's early season warming? I know there was some skepticism there as well, and it ultimately (at least partially) led to a colder turn in January. I'm not trying to gaslight you or anything, either...honest inquiry, as the stat stuff is often so complicated and ambiguous.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Absolutely 100%...this is what I was trying to explain to Forky. The pattern will still suck, but it won't be record setting.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not a torch, per se...but not a good look, either....really no avenue for cold to get here.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Chris has said that.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    In the seasonal mean? No....I don't think so. I mean, technically speaking, it's basin-wide now, but I would certainly consider it heavily eastern biased...it will probably grow somewhat more evenly distributed around mid season before perhaps collapsing back eastward early next spring.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    No, it's not going to turn into a Modoki...I agree that that is laughable at this point.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, that is the dual forcing I have been alluding to...it's from about 130-150 degrees longitude....I think early on, the eastern node will dominate, then we will see more variability beginning beyond the ides of January, as that western node starts to constructively interfere with some other aspects at higher latitudes in addition to ENSO perhaps leaking westward a bit overall/weakening at that juncture.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm not sure it should be drier than 1997-98....stronger El Niño plus CC...I agree December will probably be warmer than 1997, but after that it's pretty iffy.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't see why it should be drier....
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    CC is one factor, but we lack the MC contribution that 2015 had, which accentuated the warmth.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, this is more east based at the surface then 2015, no one world argue otherwise.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    95 faded west...it was more east-based, pretty much evenly distributed at peak.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Don't agree with what? I said December wouldn't be as warm as 2015.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Warm, yea...2015? No.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    -PDO for different reasons, though...which is important down the line IMO.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I actually had 1981 as an analog, so I wasn't suprised by the early warming last year...I just didn't think it would end up as a full reversal..it was close.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looks like 1982-83 to me...totally reasonable.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Volcano is a non-factor...it was NBD.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Never made sense...the guys on social media calling for "wild weather" ahead in November maybe right for the wrong reason...wildly pleasant weather.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    DE-FENCE----CLAP-CLAP-CLAP.....DE-FENCE-CLAP-CLAP-CLAP
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    That should lock in through December and much of January.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I high doubt we see the full reversal, but would be interesting.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    New run looks like my Dec-Jan composite
×
×
  • Create New...