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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, it was feverish pace for several years...used the opportunity to dig deeper on winter seasonal stuff and hone my methods.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    My last post on the tropics was a post-mortem on Hurricane Milton on October 10th, 2024. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/10/hurricane-milton-verification-devil-is.html All you need to know.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looking at them both, which was painful...I agree that 2015 was worse from a synopitc standpoint at H5...2023 was bad, but December 2015 was as bad as it gets.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Oh, phew...
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    They were both brutal...like...how painful? Slam the refrigerator door shut on my balls, or kick me as hard as you can?
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Where is that? Nationally last year wasn't close to 1995-1996. Here is the PNA from last winter DJFM: 2026 -1.41 0.79 -0.56 -1.74 That is very favorable?? It was the orientation of the PV that saved us, not the PNA. Very predictable outcome considering the high solar/extreme easterly QBO predisposition towards intense mid winter +TNH regimes. In fact, strong +TNH is often accompanied by RNA. It did coincide with an interval of PNA from mid January into February in this case, which probably heightened it, but the PNA was not last winter's defining teleconnection. Strong +TNH season.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I Iike that analog better from a +TNH (High solar/E QBO) perspective....2015 would have been my top polar analog had it been cool ENSO, but wish I had still used it. I'm not going to be as ENSO restrictive with weaker events moving forward, especially as ENSO continues to wash out some. The extra Pacific was much more hostile in general than 2015, which is somewhat related to ENSO, but def. a great polar analog.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    You understand both can be true, right? It's not as cold as the 1970s...got it.....but last season was not as conducive to sustained cold and high latitude blocking as 1995.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    I do think the increasing predisposition towards +NAO and +WPO is in part a byproduct of CC, but it's not the only factor...there are other reasons why 2025 was not as favorable as 1995. That being said, would an identical pattern be as cold? No...agree, there.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is the problem with any issue as politicized as CC....no one is ever going to "win", or change their mind because the data is always going to be shoehorned into a specific ideology. We could end up somehow having this winter be colder than last year and I would bet my life they would find a way to link it to CC.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    So weren't the solar cycle and the state of the northern Atlantic....both of which were much different from 1996. Chuck and I were both pretty accurate with that.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right...weakening correlation due to the the ambient warmth washing it out, which is why it's facing more hemispheric competion.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Like I just said, competing forces....it's why 2023 had MC tendencies. Last season wasn't as favorable as 1995....you keep acting as though CC was the only difference. It wasn't.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree Dec probably sucks.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    For anyone wondering about the source here...great tool: https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/index200reg.html
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think it has value for higher end events, but some may interpret it too reductively...IE, lower RONI=Weaker EL Nino=colder. I interpret a lower RONI in a high-end event as more competing forces around the hemisphere than would normally be expected with such a high ONI, like we have spoken about. Having a lower RONI and the ONI in an El Nino is often an ominous sign for NE snow lovers IMHO.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't mean the North Pacific pattern per se...I didn't even use 2015 as an extra tropical Pacific analog. I mean that I expect the degree of MC influence to be similar to 2015. The PDO will be much lower.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Will be interesting to see how close we get this year...my guess is 2015 like.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    2015 not far off, either.....likely also at least somewhat related to the residual MC influence we have discussed.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Nothing wrong with posting data....I just mentioned it looks just like 2023. Is that likely? Not IMO, but possible if Chuck is right about the N Pacific.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think 15-16 is possible...97 and 82 is unlikely. That being said, I think in the absence of a N Pac vortex, assuming that is the case, the range of potential outcomes this winter would expand because we maybe less prone to an overwhelming Pac jet.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    My position is in between both of you....I don't think it's merely a coincidence, as there are plenty of signs that El Nino has not yet coupled with the mid latitudes throughout the N Hem....however, Chuck seems more resigned to the fact that that won't change for winter than I am.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Heh... @Typhoon Tip
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Man, the latest CFS is how you watch 'ole man winter swallow a pistol.....brutal combination of east-based El Nino overlaid onto residual MC regime....look familiar? It should-
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