40/70 Benchmark

That is my inclination.

Depends on orientation.

That would be surprising.

Vintage 1980s aluminum can haha

Last fall, I assumed that the strong PV accompanying the +TNH would be more coupled with the troposphere, so I thought we would have +NAO, that is why I originally forecast the blocking to redevelop for early March. I missed the late January -NAO accompanying the +TNH, which is why it was colder than even I had thought.

Oh...I misunderstood your post...I thought you were saying heights in the mid latitudes. Yes, since we are already in deep -NAO/-AO, there should be much of a lag. I mentioned that in my update on Wednesday. My bad...agree.

I'd just assume be done with it if that's the case, but no choice.

Tough season for Mr. Webb.

-PNA for February is non-negotiable IMHO....always has been.

It's still a bit west of 2015 IMHO...it does look like we may finally be seeing a light at the end of the tunnel, but not enough for this season IMHO. Next year could be great.

Until this changes, we are going to remain largely cursed with respect to east coast phasing IMHO.

Last storm was a way around that due to the extreme nature of the airmass...but it wasn't a big, phased coastal until it got beyond us.

Still looks pinned to MC to me, and the behavior of the MJO this season reflects that. We have gotten the cold due to the combo of weak-east biased La Nina, strong East QBO and near solar max (as I explained ad nauseum last fall), but notice the big east coast storms still remain absent.

We should be able to score some of that in Feb given the RNA and relaxed -WPO.

Frustrating, but all I can do is hit the LES belts when I retire.

It's because of the MJO IMHO.....if you notice, it always finds a way to minimize both residence and amplitude in phase 8...and even the few days it spends there, it's some non-comital BS like split-forcing. The fast flow is what it is, but it's not fast enough to prevent bombs for the Great Lakes and Canadian Maritimes. I do think CC plays a role, but it's more about the disproportionate warming in the West Pacific predisposing the convective forcing to MC positioning, while repelling it from the more favorable (relative to east coast cyclogenesis) dateline and African continent.

I don't see it ending anytime soon...not to this extent, but still solidly below average.

Pattern moving forward kind of looks like December again, but hopefully maybe a bit less pronounced on the WPO?

It basically took a wall of SW flow aloft slamming into the arctic tundra to get it to snow with any purpose here, but we still can't buy a phase in the vicinity of where we need it.

This cold is going to get old really quickly if that shit keeps up.

Ensemble mean also doing "mean" things.

Everyone gets how far off it is....what else is there to talk about, solutions that aren't modeled?

Ensembles are even worse. Thoughts of my fantasy draft are beginning to seep in...