40/70 Benchmark

I know someone posted the JJ MEI value, but any idea why it has't updated here? https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

No, next month.

It's usually time to draw the shades and hide in the AC if you hate dews from now until about first week or two of September.....this next two months are usually awful, save for a rogue pleasant day or three-

Completely agree here.

Yes, but most of the warming is in the West Pacific, which biases the hemisphere towards a cool ENSO regime.

It's safe to say everything correlates to La Niña in this "new, warmer climate".

Which part do you want me to elaborate on?

Yea, I expect a step back from last year in the extra tropical Pacific before a more concerted and consistent recovery takes place, thereafter.

I think he strongly favors a 2013-2014 like impending winter season and is thus basically rip and reading the 2013 troipical output. I think there already is and is going to be a more established cool ENSO pardigm than evident that year.

I'll def take the over on Phily's numbers.

I think you guys need to be leery of a late surge in ace from intense home brew and/or GOM systems...it can catch up quickly, though it is tougher without the long-trackers. When a system does encounter a favorable upper level pocket, the entire basin is undisturbed....

Nothing they say is outlandish or patently incorrect.....but IMHO, they tend to seek avenues to cold/snow. For instance, notice they make no mention of being near or just after solar max, which is a pretty strong counter argument to the presented evidence for a very weak PV. I found the info about specific areas of sea ice favoring weaker (stronger) PV interesting...the QBO relationship is common sense amongsts weather circles, but I really didn't care for the weak cool ENSO/weak polar vortex association....that speaks more to how strongly intense cool ENSO events favor a stronger PV IMHO....weaker ENSO just means that other extra tropical influences will drive the bus.

I used to follow them closely, but really not impressed....they have a low-key cold bias IMHO.

An inch or two of snowfall is basically noise...

Typo..yea.

Yea, I know it happens, but its still eyebrow raising for me....even in winter it can happen. I was floored in Dec 2003 when I had like 11", and I drove like 5 miles southeast and there was over 2'...was nuts and infuriating. I also remember a hell of a hail storm driviing through Reading, MA when I was a kid, and then we got home in Wilmington, just over the line, and hardly a trace.

Agreed...but I did think it was cool for my gage to have nothing in it when you had a downpour...even during the summer, our weather is usally pretty similar.

I bet the segment of the population that takes the time to actually sit in front of the televison and consider folks like, @CT Rain appointment viewing is probably at least a bit more engaged and more mindful/knowledgeable hobbyists than the one that largely follows these social media goons. This is why there is probably a higher standard for accuracy for OCMs.

I doubt 90% of his following is engaged or meticulous enough to note that 5" verified instead of his forecast for 9"....or that one week from tomorrow ended up 83 instead of the advertised 71....so its self perpetuating ignorance that fuels that following, is my guess. That's the social media monster continuing to feed itself.

Its a weather forum?? The reason I found it interesting is probably synonymous with the reason that we frequent this forum. Jesus, you are like a conflict seeking missle.

Dude, I believe you....just saying its honestly interesting. Not too uncommon during the summer, though.

Its a sensationalized way of saying a pool of cooler air, that is if he in fact realizes that the PV isn't a thing in mid July, which is doubtful...so not sure.

Unfortunately, it emblematic of the collective decay of the cognition of society given the advent of social media....it is what it is, which isn't pretty.

I love how Moregarbage has the identity verification check on X....that shows you he really is clueless and possesses zero insight. I'd want my identity verified about as much as I'd like my balls dropped in sulfuric acid if I were publishing that nonsense....like "Yup...its really me, guys".....eff me-

Instant thumb-swipe.