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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Just stating to dig into ENSO in depth now that we are beyond the spring barrier, and I this isn't like 1997 per EMI....FWIW. Very similar to 2015. Stronger version of 2015.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's camped there from July-through September, too.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Copernicus seasonal mean seems to have a New Foundland cold pool in November.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    This what I meant this morning when I said we'd be walking a tight-rope...this season pull it off, though with a slight nude east of the warm pool. We are do for a good Nino...it's been over a decade.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    At some point, all of that warmth in region 4 is going to produce a Modoki season.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, well....we did just see a 2013-2014 type of pattern last year, so who knows.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    In the seasonal mean, sure....DJFM isn't averaging -NAO...not a huge leap of faith. But we just need one. month to average -NAO.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I find it interesting that last year had an SST profile that mimicked a Modoki set up, but the competing MC influence combined with the +WPO ended up making the pattern look east based. Some of the guidance this year is implying that while the SST may look more east-based, the warm pooling pulling more eastward with potentially a more favorable WPO may result in a more Modoki pattern. Tricky how CC modifies these traditional relationships.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    June 2023 forecast looked pretty different.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I know it's biased towards stock ENSO, but it makes sense to an extent if the warm pool does slosh east somewhat.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    We had more MC influence in 2023 for an east-based pattern despite Modoki like SSTs, but I wonder if we don't end with more Modoki pattern this season despite SSTs looking east-based due to the warm pool being tugged eastward a bit.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Anyone notice the JMA 2m temps for next winter? interesting... Looks Modoki.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would take that. I'm thinking maybe one solid month of -NAO.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    1972 and 1982 best for solar and 2015 best for QBO.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Tough for me to tell without monthly calculations, but it looks like 1957, 1982 and 2015 are good polar analogs.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    They still haven't calculated the QBO since February. What an absolute nightmare this administration is.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    WPO....it's usually + in these uber warm ENSO events, but 1982-1983 was negative....I could see us pulling that off again given the recent changes on the North Pacific. May be another notable difference between this year and 2023-2024.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    1957-1958 also had quite a bit of -NAO.....but Chris is correct to question how effective it would be today because even if the west warm pool relents, we still need to account for the exaggerated ridge and attenuated trough responses in our modern climate.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Never any guarantees with an El Niño that powerful, but we can all agree that we'll need some negative NAO to have an appreciable shot.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would welcome this, regardless of how we fare this coming winter.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, that's more of a traditional, canonical-intense El Niño response, more in line with 1997. NAO will be crucial to salvaging a winter. Probably cooler than 2023 in the NE in the absence of that competing MC element.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    I feel like we are going to be playing with fire a lot between periods of Modoki forcing and MC forcing....probably a good deal of variability after a consistently mild early season.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    No way in hell this is going to be a cold winter in the mean for the NE...even 1957 and 1965 were near normal.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I nailed it in 2016, though granted I was too cold and snowy. I have no issue with a big snow risk, but the cold that Europe site was selling is BS....maybe an arctic outbreak like Feb 2016, but not in the seasonal mean.
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