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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    WINTER, WINTER, WINTER, WINTER, WINTER
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Get this all teed up for @bluewaveto compare it to future warmer runs as the ridge trends southward.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    This what I was getting at with a reflection event being the safer bet....these warmings are feast or famine, whether they result in reversals or not....yet they result in these mass cyber-orgies.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Is anyone subscribed to The World Climate Center paywall? I made an inquiry about a trial, but haven't heard back.....I'm looking to access a data set...
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    And refuse to acknowledge it....(not Adam).
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    CC trolls will disappear if it ever fails....like they did last year.....either that, or have a circle jerk over how warm it was in New Mexico if they can't troll us. " I realize you just had a NESIS 4 event, and a Feb system that rivaled 1978 in SE NE in the midst of your coldest winter in over a decade, but the warmth in New Mexico was more anomalous than the cold in the NE". Funny thing is it still proves the point that even though the climate is rapidly warming, these patterns remain cyclical and will largely even out over time independent of the background warming. I know there was some talk that we were going to be in the MC for the rest of eternity give or take, but if ya don't know....now ya know.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think that means anything...early 1983 got cold via wave 1 reflection, which this season is better suited for than 1998 was due to the strat and especially the sun. TBH reflection is a far safer bet for wintry impacts than strat warming, which is hit or miss.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    2023 and 2001....
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, it probably won't be record setting....not intending to imply it's a physical implausibility. I get how anomalous this is...could also be a record deal nationally, but not in any one region.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    John, how do you feel about last winter's early season warming? I know there was some skepticism there as well, and it ultimately (at least partially) led to a colder turn in January. I'm not trying to gaslight you or anything, either...honest inquiry, as the stat stuff is often so complicated and ambiguous.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Absolutely 100%...this is what I was trying to explain to Forky. The pattern will still suck, but it won't be record setting.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not a torch, per se...but not a good look, either....really no avenue for cold to get here.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Chris has said that.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    In the seasonal mean? No....I don't think so. I mean, technically speaking, it's basin-wide now, but I would certainly consider it heavily eastern biased...it will probably grow somewhat more evenly distributed around mid season before perhaps collapsing back eastward early next spring.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    No, it's not going to turn into a Modoki...I agree that that is laughable at this point.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, that is the dual forcing I have been alluding to...it's from about 130-150 degrees longitude....I think early on, the eastern node will dominate, then we will see more variability beginning beyond the ides of January, as that western node starts to constructively interfere with some other aspects at higher latitudes in addition to ENSO perhaps leaking westward a bit overall/weakening at that juncture.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm not sure it should be drier than 1997-98....stronger El Niño plus CC...I agree December will probably be warmer than 1997, but after that it's pretty iffy.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't see why it should be drier....
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    CC is one factor, but we lack the MC contribution that 2015 had, which accentuated the warmth.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, this is more east based at the surface then 2015, no one world argue otherwise.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    95 faded west...it was more east-based, pretty much evenly distributed at peak.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Don't agree with what? I said December wouldn't be as warm as 2015.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Warm, yea...2015? No.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    -PDO for different reasons, though...which is important down the line IMO.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I actually had 1981 as an analog, so I wasn't suprised by the early warming last year...I just didn't think it would end up as a full reversal..it was close.
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