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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. Who is doing that? Cite the name specifically?? All I see are expectations for a warm season with a heightened risk of a big snow event or two. Obviously the season could easily fail to produce like 1998, but it's not very compelling to discuss that in depth on a weather forum. The upside if we get lucky here in SNE is near normal snowfall and above normal snowfall in the mid atl.
  2. It's a DJF mean. Worked for Feb 1983, but I agree it's precarious for the coast. Here is Feb....I think we have seasonable cold here with that ridging out west.
  3. Tell me there is explosive potential this winter without telling me there is explosive potential this winter...okay-
  4. I don't think it's going to be an appreciably negative PDO.
  5. Pretty much....I would push back a hair with regard to snowfall, though...1982 was just about normal.
  6. You are giving yourself too much credit. I don't need you to help me formulate a valid idea of how this season is going to progress....I'm merely giving you an opportunity to at least feign an interest in contributing anything of value.
  7. The cooling east of Japan and warming in the GOA is driving the neutralization of the PDO:
  8. Leaves are already falling up here because it's been so dry.
  9. Likely because the cold El Niño events of the late 70's freaked them out.
  10. Yea, just depends on the precise SST measurement and calculation are, but I wish they could centralize it. Regardless, neutral-negative now.
  11. https://satellitewx.com/ocean?p=ssta&d=2026-09-09&dom=Global&v=r,-160.000,0.000,387.600 Thanks to @BlizzardWx...my new home site.
  12. Absolutely. I didn't understand that 3 years ago and misdiagnosed it as a Modoki signal.
  13. I think you can hedge in the narrative....not these asinine AI-generated graphics...agree, there.
  14. See how far west 2023-2024, hence the heavy MC influence.
  15. EURO hits that even harder. It's due to two things IMO....Stratosphere, but not what you think...wave one reflection, as opposed to SSW.....we aren't seeing a reversal IMHO. El Niño is also going to fade westward post-peak, so likely some periods that are more redolent of Modoki in the back half of the season.
  16. Not to that degree, no...that is why I am wondering if adds more Modoki influence versus MC influence relative to the east-based-super composite.
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