40/70 Benchmark

Great stuff in here today.

Yea, major El Niño season's are very high stakes....the dice are loaded towards huge events, but opportunities for more quotidian, or pedestrian snowfalls are limited by a dearth of cold in the seasonal mean, so it can be tough to sniff climo snowfall if you whiff not the big dogs.

Well, I was referring to "favor" within a forecasting context....

Well, latter December is more palatable....but what I specifically meant is the latter November/early December type of deal we saw this past season....that is exceedingly rare. Once nearing the new year it's much more common. For instance, I count five prior to the ides of December between 1958 and 2012 in this table.

Just as an aside, SSW climo time frame isn't late autumn and early winter.... mid winter, okay....last season was very rare in that regard.

It's more +NAO....AO is pretty much a push, but I would hedge towards subtle negative given my composite. I think we will def. have some -NAO periods....I just don't think it will be a mean DJFM -NAO. I also don't expect a SSW....it will be triggered more by strat reflection, etc...

There is some validity to that, but it's more useful during cool ENSO. There probably is some statistical connection between very inactive hurricane seasons and poor subsequent winters due to super El Nino.

There will undoubtedly be less MC influence this season relative to 2016.

You don't think +EPO has been historically favored during super El Nino with a huge GOA low?? The seasonal mean will be +EPO, but I think we can have some fleeting periods of cross polar flow.

I think your thought process is intentionally linear here.....you know damn well how chaotic snowfall is and the bar that year is pretty damn low...I'll take the over.

Eh...I see what you're saying, but ENSO doesn't operate in a vacuum. I get the sample size limitation, but we also need to consider that 3/4 Super El Ninos have occurred during the descending portion of the solar cycle, which is pretty hostile towards sustained high latitude blocking. I don't think that connection between descending solar and super El Nino is a coincidence, either.

I feel like Allison would rather not find out....

Shocker.... He favors blocking every season if you go back and read through his stuff. He keeps touting super El Nino as being very disruptive to the PV, but neglects the fact that we are 0-4 in triggering a SSW during a super El Nino. He likes to cherry pick data to suit his agenda...what he doesn't mention is that the portion of the solar cycle (descending) that predisposes the Pacific basin to super El Nino is very hostile to the development of sustained high latitude blocking. He harped on the sea ice pattern over the summer as a factor in the argument for blocking this winter, but failed to mention that it only has predictive value during the easterly phase of the QBO. Needless to say, I'm about as much of a fan of his work as he is of objectivity. That said, they do make for interesting reads and he has some cool graphics.

Let me guess....he favors big time blocking.

No...2 years removed, approaching geomagnetic peak.

41.9 this AM.

This should be pretty accurate, so forecast maybe about right for the northeast and could be a hair warm south of about DC....but another trend we have seen is for the ridges to verify south of forecast, which places "too cool" on the able for the NE forecast, if that were to be the case.

It comes down to the position of the ridge, which should be over se Canada, so I doubt it will be too warm in the NE. Maaaaaaybe the se....... 23-24 it was over se Canada, so it was too cool anywhere near that ridge. Last year it was too cool in the SW, under the ridge.

For the most part, but I could see a good 3 week stretch between mid January and mid February we're that could be decent retention. 1983 was like that.

This is what I mean...seasonal guidance isn't that different, regardless, but like I said, the EURO is probably most realistic.

I don't think that matters.....I think you're being a bit too linear. The EURO has it a good handle on this and it has the forcing near 160W, too. Maybe it's wrong, but I don't see any reason to assume that is the case.

My largest knock on 1957 is it occurred right near solar max, which is not as hostile to blocking as descending solar, but that it just one factor.

Well, it was discussed in the main ENSO thread that the JMA actually nailed the Aleutian ridge this summer, which is NOT stock El Nino....frankly, neither is the -NAO that is being flagged by all guidance, even the EURO...so they are seeing something beyond ENSO. I think it's valid, albeit overcooked. We aren't getting a DJFM mean -NAO, but it does speak to the volatility of the coming season.

@GaWxI would say around 120W.

I usually go with orientation at peak as most representative of the winter season, so December should be pretty representative. I agree, CANSIPS is off.