40/70 Benchmark

I don't understand why he feels as though the warm pool needs to shift to allow for +TNH??? We have had intervals of it in this regime previously both last year and in 2022 ...

If you are basing analysis off of the weekly output, I get it...all I'm saying is they are probably right given the Pacific trough regime that has become established and a probable reflection event looming later in January. I like to use those as probabilistic tools, rather than deterministic.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/12/white-christmas-likely-for-portion-of.html FIRST & FINAL WHITE XMAS CALL:

White Christmas Likely For Portion Of The Area Weak System Impact On Tuesday Synoptic Overview It now appears as though the possibility of a White Christmas has increased for at least a portion of the area, despite Friday's "Grinch" storm having scoured the region of any residual snowpack. This is due to a weak system that will break off of the Pacific energy out west during the day on Tuesday and subsequently slide to the east-southeast in the flow between the polar vortex and central US ridge. Although this energy will begin to amplify upon reaching the coast as it descends the eastern periphery of the ridge, it will do so too far to the east to produce a significant storm for the forecast area. Had this ridge been centered a at the longitude of Montana as opposed to Minnesota, far greater travel disruptions would be likely given that a faster rate of amplification would yield a much more significant storm further to the west, and closer to the coast. While that will not be the case, a period light snowfall will leave light accumulations across especially the interior. However, the track of the system will be to the north of the area prior to a full transfer to the coast, which will allow winds to switch to the south. This will eventually induce a transition to rainfall prior to precipitation ending Tuesday evening across much of the coastal plain, which will obviously affect which locales manage to observe a White Christmas (1" or greater of snow on the ground at 7am Christmas morning). Anticipated Storm Evolution Light Snow will begin overspread the western half of the area during Tuesday morning and reach all but the eastern third of the area by midday. The morning commute should be fine given the late start of the snowfall, meager intensity and the reduced volume of traffic given the holiday period, however, commuters in Connecticut may be wise to leave some extra time, especially southwestern areas. The south coast of Connecticut will have transitioned to rain b early evening, as the storm begins to intensify and the storm moves closer to peak across the area, which will slow a Tuesday afternoon commute that will likely already have a heavier volume owed to holiday traffic. The storm will begin to redevelop off of the coast by midnight into the early predawn hours of Christmas Eve, but not before precipitation ends as rain roughly inside of I 495. Snow and rain showers will taper off during the predawn hours on Christmas Eve, with the first light yielding a festive blanket of white across the interior, a barren, puddle-filled earth near the coast. Stay tuned for more information on what maybe a similar system on Boxing Day. FIRST & FINAL WHITE XMAS CALL:

You get 4", and I'll send everyone on this forum a Xmas card with me wearing nothing but one of your skin tight vests with a turtle neck.

ICON looks pretty good up here.

This graphic epitomizes the past 7 years for me....I reside right under that "x"....

It moved north...actually a bit better than 12z for MBY.

Still learning...the awful forecasts are very instructive.

Doubt at your own peril.

I've been warning it would strengthen in mid December into February since early last fall. But as others have intimated, that by no. means January is a lost cause.

I expected some stretches like this during December, which pretty much worked out.

Man, you go over my head with this stuff, but I do absolutely expect a very favorable Pacific to take shape by mid month.

I def tape that EURO snowmap right under the mistletoe.

I would take 2" and run in this pattern....no complaints..... Unless Scooter gets 3"-

EURO looks decent here....but the usual, with the real good being 10mi north of me.

Tough to buy the GFS at this point, but something to watch....for now, consider that the spiked-eggnog outcome.

Good look, esp. NOP

-EPO/+NAO with a PV near James Bay. January 2014, 2022, 2015

His thoughts..not mine, but I guess I could see it as a phase change to my +TNH

Truth.

Shocking it would favor that corridor.

Guy I talk shop with online is whispering about a big coastal between Jan 8-12.

Lightning accompanying downpour in Tewksbury