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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's not an official La Nina, no.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree!!! Candidate for post of the year!!!
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Probably centered on when the actual split is taking place.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Take a look at set ups with decidedly +EPO/+WPO/-NAO...promise it won't be this cold, and often downright mild...we've seen some examples over the past several years.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    No it hasn't, the North Pacific has. -NAO can prevent a torch and help to lock cold in when it matters, but it's not the source of this arctic flow.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    No, it impacted March, but the extreme RNA still worked mid atlantic and SNE.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Why is that?
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Those were my two top SSW analogs, and very good seasonal analogs in general. Hence the KU window in early March,
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Just being a dick. Long range forecasting is hard...only way to get any better is falling in on your face enough (not suggesting you did). I think I have another 22-32" to go IMBY this season.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Say buckle up enough, the seatbelt will eventually click.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Snowing at the rate of 3"/week....Feb 2015 and Jan 2011. I actually see the value of the Feb 2015 analog, but my gag-reflex kicks in when people compare the snowfall.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    That output verbatim blows biggies.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Depends what happens from here on out in terms or snow...I'm still about 2' shy of average snowfall, so plenty left to be desired from my perspective if the balance of the season dissapoints in that respect.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, you, nor anyone else, has reduced it to zero...so there is luck as far as we know...I think we are aways off from getting there.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    We had a -PDO decade like this...the 1950s...it was colder, but still sucked for snowfall. We didn't get "buried" in shit patterns before...they still sucked.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    There's luck involved in everything....chaos, whatever you want to call it. The pattern can be perfect and sometimes it just doesn't work out. We did have an El Nino like 2023-2024...it was 1972-1973...-PDO /strong Nino combo. It was just as awful in terms of snowfall, but not as warm.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    I agree.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Again...agreed on the fast flow. Said that a few times....but if you are getting stuck in forcing patterns that destructively interfere with east coast amplification, you have two options: 1 The storms develop and amplify elsewhere....great leakes 2 You get a storm on the southeast coast in a cold pattern that can't amplify enough to clime the coast until it's over Atlantic, and becomes a Maritimes storm. I agree I don't think it's permanent...Mother Nature will find a way.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    YES..absolutely agreed,...we have had extended periods of unfavorable forcing. I'm not saying this is anything that hasn't happened before, but I just think the CC is enhancing it a bit this go around...just like it will enhance the snow the next time we get croacked. The west pac warmth is enhancing the MJO in the crap phases, an making it averse to the favorable phases.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not arguing this. Agreed.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    When the tropical forcing isn't favorable, it's like a scene out of the horror series "Final Destination" for east coast amplification....the atmosphere isn't going to flash a check engine light warning that hemispheric forcing regime is unfavorable...but what will happen is you will see phasing attempts retarded/sabotaged by defects like nipple lows, and chasing convection, which those who don't understand, or who wish to bury their head in the sand will attribute to "luck".
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't follow you... We have an arctic flow from Canada over the eastern half of the country in a +TNH pattern....we have a disturbance in the jet stream that pops a low on the southeast coast due to the regime being so suppressed....but if you have tropical forcing that destructively interferes with east coast amplification you tell me what you think is going to happen after that suppressed storm hits the se coast????
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, that is how forcing works, JD. What is favorable for one area isn't inimical to others.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right, but it is a factor....you can't be dialectical with this stuff.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    No, the flow is faster...that is real. I just don't buy that this why we aren't getting storms bc other areas are...that's why I think it's more a combo of forcing, -PDO and bad. luck.
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