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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    That is a good point....like @LakePaste25said, maybe it just means the extreme anomalies are more relegated to the nation's mid-section.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Do you think that dampens any later season correlations?
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    This ties in will with all of Chuck's research, as well as my analog composite. Now, as I'm sure @forkyfork and @bluewavewith will point out faster than the rate at which the polar ice caps are melting, this doesn't guarantee much in terms of sensible weather...but it is what it is.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Sure, but it's not like the coast would benefit much this early, anyway.....like I said, I think the intrigue is for later in the season. Sometimes major early disruptions predispose the strat to future occurrences later in the season.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I know it sounds cliche, but awful forecasts are the best learning tools....it's all about perspective. You just have to own it and approach with an open mind.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    @forkyforkMy mistake concerning underselling ENSO early on was being focused too much on periodicity given the magnitude of the 2023 event just 3 years ago, but upon gaining a more through appreciation for the impact that the solar cycle on ENSO, I now realize that it was 2023 that was the anomaly given that it occurred near solar max. This event is occurring right in the descending solar wheelhouse. My guess is the magnitude of 2023 was largely the result of CC in that it represented a failed effort to redistribute that warm pool eastward...if at first you don't succeed....
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Everyone who puts themselves out there is going to miss...like he missed last year...some our transparent and honest with ourselves, others not so much.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    For above average snowfall in my area? Certainly...old news.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Owning mistakes and learning from them is more important than flaunting victories. I don't hide from them at all....people value transparency. Thanks.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think we all are punting a cold and snowy December, but it's important to keep it real, too.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    I personally couldn't care less if it's +10 or +6...TBH, if it isn't going to snow, give me the former....I just think there is reason to doubt that with all central and eastern Pacific forcing.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    There is also no antecedent airmass to work with this early in the season.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, all we can say is that this El Nino will be a bit warmer than it would have under identical conditions a decade ago....but not sure that is enough to account for the lack of MC contribution. We spent a decade observing how that amplifies warmth over the eastern CONUS, so we can't now pretend that it wasn't a factor.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think the elimination of the ample MC forcing from 2023-2024 helps. Strat warming is pretty varied in how it manifests so it's tough to say outside of the fact that it is probably too early at this point.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think it's too early to mean much for us, even if it does result in a colder period.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think I have made it clear that I am skeptical of how impactful this strat warming will be and am more interested in what it may portend later in the season.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's almost as if the climate is warming or something...
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, this a great example of why I keep pointing out that secondary convective node around 130-150W......it fosters some variability. Does it preclude a mild season overall? No.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    That didn't take long
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    WINTER, WINTER, WINTER, WINTER, WINTER
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Get this all teed up for @bluewaveto compare it to future warmer runs as the ridge trends southward.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    This what I was getting at with a reflection event being the safer bet....these warmings are feast or famine, whether they result in reversals or not....yet they result in these mass cyber-orgies.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Is anyone subscribed to The World Climate Center paywall? I made an inquiry about a trial, but haven't heard back.....I'm looking to access a data set...
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    And refuse to acknowledge it....(not Adam).
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