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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I feel like we could see some patterns set up that resemble the CANSIPS output..maybe even the entire month of January or February, but not the seasonal mean.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, it's going to be warm in the mean. The question is will we have some respites from the jet...my early hunch is that we will.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I don't even think it's worth sweating those details....usually when it gets this powerful, it's safe to just concede warmth on par with an east-based event. But there are other factors that could foster the development of a favorable stretch(es), especially later in the season.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    My El Niño intensity composites are pretty similar to his...few differences....notably, I consider 1972 as merely strong and 2009 as moderate.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    JMA site is awesome, but my primary complaint about it is the inability to run composites.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's like your teaming having a lead in the top of the 2nd inning.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Gonna touch upon this in my June blog in a few weeks....I feel like it's better to focus more on factors like this since it's pretty obvious where we are headed intensity wise, which makes the modoki value pretty moot.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Jives with my early thoughts of a very warm December for the NE on par with 2006, 2015 and 2023...essentially a super/east-based composite. Looks like an early +WPO that maybe flips later in the season.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Do you really like cold and snow? Sometimes I feel like your screenname is a sadistic manifestation of deep-seeded self-loathing.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think the CANSIPS did best last winter, granted non of the models accurately incorporate the magnitude of CC attributed ridge expansion. Just saying...not meant to imply it necessarily will again.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    As an anecdotal note, I think the run of "bad luck" for the east coast has come to an end and feel like we are starting to more efficiently cash in for a while. Just a hunch.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'll bet if we did 1997 over again, it would work out somewhat better for my area.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I agree that it could have turned out better than it did with a little luck, but I would take 1982 12x over 1997. Dec 1997 had a great storm here just before Xmas, which was the one good event that entire wretched season.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think it's important to not get too cute with the EMI when ENSO gets this strong because all of them are going to be "basin wide" in the sense that the anomalies will encompass the entirety of the ENSO area. Good luck getting 2.5C in the east or west, and having 0C on the other end. This is why I'm not really focused too much on EMI.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Another nod towards 1997.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Usually the seasonal guidance will be biased towards stock ENSO, so when a seasonal model shows that output leading into an intense El Nino episode, it should provide reason for pause.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    I do think we need to remain mindful of the fact that there has been some sort of shift in the North Pacific the past couple of years....the dominant +WPO is over. That was part of the reason 2023, and that several year stretch, was so mild in the NE.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Am I sold on a torch? No, but it's very possible.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    No, I wouldn't. Did you see my May blog?
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Kind of looks like last winter with a STJ added. Interesting.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Bob was a yawner for most.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    1.03" total rainfall.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, it's all connected...sure, the RONI only measures the oceans, but I think the warming oceans are somewhat connected to the more pronounced 500MB ridges....I think there is an element of feedback at play. Bottom line is there is more heat, which is being reflected in the ocean and the atmosphere, but it just so happens that the RONI only measures the former...so technically, yes...it certainly goes beyond the RONI.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    It is. The Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI.v2) is a comprehensive climate index used to measure the intensity and phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It improves upon single-variable indices by combining five oceanic and atmospheric variables across the tropical Pacific: sea surface temperatures, sea-level pressure, surface winds, and outgoing longwave radiation
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