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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think we all are punting a cold and snowy December, but it's important to keep it real, too.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    I personally couldn't care less if it's +10 or +6...TBH, if it isn't going to snow, give me the former....I just think there is reason to doubt that with all central and eastern Pacific forcing.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    There is also no antecedent airmass to work with this early in the season.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, all we can say is that this El Nino will be a bit warmer than it would have under identical conditions a decade ago....but not sure that is enough to account for the lack of MC contribution. We spent a decade observing how that amplifies warmth over the eastern CONUS, so we can't now pretend that it wasn't a factor.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think the elimination of the ample MC forcing from 2023-2024 helps. Strat warming is pretty varied in how it manifests so it's tough to say outside of the fact that it is probably too early at this point.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think it's too early to mean much for us, even if it does result in a colder period.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think I have made it clear that I am skeptical of how impactful this strat warming will be and am more interested in what it may portend later in the season.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's almost as if the climate is warming or something...
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, this a great example of why I keep pointing out that secondary convective node around 130-150W......it fosters some variability. Does it preclude a mild season overall? No.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    That didn't take long
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    WINTER, WINTER, WINTER, WINTER, WINTER
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Get this all teed up for @bluewaveto compare it to future warmer runs as the ridge trends southward.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    This what I was getting at with a reflection event being the safer bet....these warmings are feast or famine, whether they result in reversals or not....yet they result in these mass cyber-orgies.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Is anyone subscribed to The World Climate Center paywall? I made an inquiry about a trial, but haven't heard back.....I'm looking to access a data set...
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    And refuse to acknowledge it....(not Adam).
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    CC trolls will disappear if it ever fails....like they did last year.....either that, or have a circle jerk over how warm it was in New Mexico if they can't troll us. " I realize you just had a NESIS 4 event, and a Feb system that rivaled 1978 in SE NE in the midst of your coldest winter in over a decade, but the warmth in New Mexico was more anomalous than the cold in the NE". Funny thing is it still proves the point that even though the climate is rapidly warming, these patterns remain cyclical and will largely even out over time independent of the background warming. I know there was some talk that we were going to be in the MC for the rest of eternity give or take, but if ya don't know....now ya know.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think that means anything...early 1983 got cold via wave 1 reflection, which this season is better suited for than 1998 was due to the strat and especially the sun. TBH reflection is a far safer bet for wintry impacts than strat warming, which is hit or miss.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    2023 and 2001....
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, it probably won't be record setting....not intending to imply it's a physical implausibility. I get how anomalous this is...could also be a record deal nationally, but not in any one region.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    John, how do you feel about last winter's early season warming? I know there was some skepticism there as well, and it ultimately (at least partially) led to a colder turn in January. I'm not trying to gaslight you or anything, either...honest inquiry, as the stat stuff is often so complicated and ambiguous.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Absolutely 100%...this is what I was trying to explain to Forky. The pattern will still suck, but it won't be record setting.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not a torch, per se...but not a good look, either....really no avenue for cold to get here.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Chris has said that.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    In the seasonal mean? No....I don't think so. I mean, technically speaking, it's basin-wide now, but I would certainly consider it heavily eastern biased...it will probably grow somewhat more evenly distributed around mid season before perhaps collapsing back eastward early next spring.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    No, it's not going to turn into a Modoki...I agree that that is laughable at this point.
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