40/70 Benchmark

Things probably won't pick up appreciably until the latter half of October.

Most anomalous snowfall of my life occurred in April 1997, which was an otherwise bottom-dwelling season.

I don't think the fast flow will be a large issue this year.

Much more moisture available today, along with the warmer climate.

I will say that the 1877 event was pretty similar to this and that winter sucked.

I don't see why it would be displaced southward...agree on northward.

Sorry for OT...honestly forgot which thread I was in.

Region 4 has kind of dried up for now, but I don't think that wil last.

Shit....I forgot I was in the Sept. thread...my bad. I early hunch on how the unprecedented magnitude of ENSO will factor in is one word...VOLATILITY. When you have those type of anomalies throughout the basin, it's going to introduce a myriad of different forcing schemes along with a very prominent and loaded STJ.....line it all up nicely, and the sky is the limit....but don't blink, or it will melt and you'll miss it.

Given the pace of the tropical season, there isn't much to catch up on. Three blogs, though the last two are very deep.

My feeling is that more often than not, we are going to struggle with precip type, but the region still may very well score climo snowfall from the couple of events in which we do not have that issue.

Get out of my head.

That is exactly what I am grappling with. If your thinking is fixed firmly within the box with respect to seasonal forecasting, then your final forecast product is likely to suffer a large degree of error.

I will say that @Typhoon Tipwere musing just yesterday about a theoretical "unicorn-scenario" in which the residual cool ENSO residue retards the development of said GOA low in such a manner as to allow for that. Said impact would need to be both more subtle than 2023 and more apparent than 2015.

I am usually lethal with ENSO forecasting, but I will say that the unparalleled magnitude of this El Nino is really posing a challenge for me with respect to any forecast precision beyond the blanket "super-El Nino designation. I am someone who exhaustively parses data to come up with analogs to inform future intensity forecasts and it makes it difficult given that this one is in a class of one. Def. take my exact numbers with a grain of salt this year.

I am usually lethal with ENSO forecasting, but I will say that the unparalleled magnitude of this El Nino is really posing a challenge for me with respect to any forecast precision beyond the blanket "super-El Nino designation. I am someone who exhaustively parses data to come up with analogs to inform future intensity forecasts and it makes it difficult given that this one is in a class of one.

True, that is how I feel.

Presto: 30 Day change:

Segment from July 25th blog: Alternative Scenarios....AKA "What can Go 'Wrong' " Lagged North Atlantic Climate Response to Solar Variability There has been a primary emphasis within this writing to adequately portray the sun as the both the omnipotent and omnipresent figure that it is as it pertains to the earth's atmosphere. Indeed, from it's influence on the polar domain via the modulation of ENSO by the degree of solar irradiance emitted, it's modulation of the arctic via the transmission of geomagnetic energy via the solar wind throughout the stratosphere, it's reach around the globe is boundless. It has also been established that the atmosphere in largely governed by the oft delayed feedback between the land, sea and air that serves to budget the immense degree of solar energy that is concentrated around the equator by redistributing it upward. First in altitude via the convergence and upward ascent of air due to convection, which is a term referring to concentrated areas of showers and thunderstorms. Then eventually poleward by both major storms such as hurricanes, which are essentially spinning gyres of convection, as well as ocean currents and oscillations. This epitomizes how the cycle of ocean and air processes act to budget heat around the globe, which was touched upon in an oblique manner when referencing the interplay between the sun and the poles at work in the "bottom-up" theory. The work of Sciafe et al, 2013 is revolutionary in that it ostensibly bridges the previously discussed works concerning polar sensitivity to the solar cycle with prior research (Czaja, 2002) positing a 6 month lag between the leading of the NAO by the 500mb pattern over the Atlantic. The work posits the Atlantic also has a sensitivity to solar UV variability that triggers an immediate atmospheric signature that takes several years to accumulate in the subsurface of the ocean, during which time the atmospheric response progressively increases as part of a coupled feedback between the ocean and atmosphere. The response continuously projects onto the winter North Atlantic Oscillation and the familiar tripole pattern in North Atlantic sea surface temperature, as referenced by Cjaza et al (2002), with a lag time of 2-4 years (Sciafe et al 2013). Thus is it is reasonable to conclude from the preponderance of evidence owed to a multitude of varied research efforts that changes in solar irradiance along the progression of the solar cycle trigger instant surface responses that subsequently progress through the subsurface, and then ultimately resurface through a process of meridional overturning. This reemergence fosters a delayed feedback (6 months) between the sea and air that can be self-sustaining. Member stormchaserchuck1 at Americanwx.com weather forum has put this theory into practice. His index consists of a measurement of May 1 - Sept 30 SSTs in the North Atlantic. It's correlated to following November-March NAO/AO (+6 month lag). The index is a composite of 2 areas in the North Atlantic (blue box - red box). Because the northern area has more volatility, the total dataset, SSTs and NAOwere normalized by multiplying the total historical absolute number of both, and dividing it by each other. When blue box is cold SSTs, a negative NAO is implied for Winter. When red box in warm SSTs, a negative NAO Winter. For comparison, and red box is 65% value of blue box anomaly (so -1 blue +0.65 red is same thing). Visa versa. Thus far, through July 15, which is about 50% of the way through the identified May 1st- September 30th period, it is estimated that the index currently signals approximately a -0.40 for DJFM NAO predictor. Since the standard deviation is .50, there is it a 50% chance of having the DJFM NAO calculate between -0.90 and +.10. The .40 mean of the polar analog composite would rival the 2012-2013 season and would be the most negative NAO season since 2009-2010. Unsurprisingly, both of these seasons occurred during the easterly phase of the QBO and coincided with the ascending portion of the solar cycle. Given the previously discussed westerly phase of the QBO that is ongoing in conjunction with the pending peak in geomagnetic energy, it is expected that this formula will normalize over the course of the next two+ months. In the event that it does not, it should be interpreted as a nod towards the increased volatility within the polar domain relative to the classic east-based seasons that has been advertised. The fact that ample evidence has been provided for increased volatility during the second half of the DJFM winter season also implies that this may represent a feasible plausibility that will need to be evaluated over between now and the onset of boreal winter

I was adamant that it would do away... I do not expect a mean -NAO this winter.

I think you're trying to be, but I think everyone would attest to the fact that you have some sort of underling assumption that winter will suck, which predisposes you to an inherent bias.

Social media has fostered an enormous proclivity for the development of these highly superficial and useless maps in the place of in-depth analysis.

Here is a crazy idea...how about objectivity over negativity and positivity? Just a thought-

Winter is far more interesting to me.

I love how some resign themselves to a winter absent of snow or cold, and then throw temper tantrums when tornado alley doesn't wind a path into New England during the summer.