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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    MULTI-decadal cycle....it's more like 30 years.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Last trace of snow at the end of my driveway melted out today.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I certainly don't think we should be resigned to it.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think a season like 1991-1992 is more of a threat than 2015-2016.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Absolutely, and we will be until the turn of the decade, but there are ENSO driven deviations from the multidecadal cycle....look at 1957....also near solar max and preceded by consecutive -PDO +ENSO events.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think there are other factors that made 92-93 through 95-96 colder.....volanic impacts vary greatly depending on location. Yea, IDK....I find it hard to believe the N Pacific is going to maintain -PDO for a third consecutive El Niño and revert back to cold west/warm east configuration.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right, I'm not debating El Niño.....what is in question is intensity and persistence of -PDO. I think the largest concern for winter enthusiasts is a 1991-1992 type of outcome....whereas the PDO recovers to near neutral and it's still awful as the PV is very strong constricted, but I think Pinatub may have played a role there.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Just to be clear, I am NOT suggesting that a RONI over 2.0 cannot materialize....I just do not think that it will. However, too early to rule anything out.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    I have said it before, but I will be STUNNED if we pull do go on to have a bonafide El Niño AND the -PDO persists....I just don't see that happening. It will be interesting to dive into which El Niño seasons were very mild across the east in the absence of a -PDO and Uber-strong intensity. I think it may be a relatively short list of awful winter seasons with a RONI below 2.0 and +PDO.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I agree concerning the pattern of stagnating patterns....I've noticed that, as well. Obviously if the data continues to support it, that's one thing, but at this early juncture I reman skeptical of an uber El Niño in such rapid succession with 2015-2016 and 2023-2024. If this winter is a mild, it's going to have to be due to the warm ENSO overwhelming because I just can not envision reverting to the cold west/warm east configuration of the 2020s with he tropical Pacific moving the direction that it is.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm not triggered at all....just having fun.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Ah.....it's the time of year when @snowman19begins scanning the globe ....he's finally come upon hieroglyphics scribbled on a pyramid that when translated, offers conclusive evidence that El Nino will in fact be east-based, and winter is doomed. Love the dude's passion.....he's very eclectic and cultured in the he finds a way to ram it up the keister of winter enthusiasts in 17 different languages between spring and fall.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    it was mid-loaded with regard to snowfall here. I agree about needing one more major storm to be considered a great season...I said the same, exact thing.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I think my last piles should go today.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Father time is undefeated.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    You mean just pack, or including piles? I still have a couple of small mounds left at either side of the end of the driveway.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    I thought I recall you posting something to the effect of a "typical front-loaded La Nina winter"? Perhaps I'm mistaken. Yea, I mixed up February and March, but other than that...one of my better efforts in the aggregate.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yup. We are definitely seeing more variation with fringe-events, though, which is why passing the baton from ONI to RONI was so crucial.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    When in doubt, go warm, though...not disputing that. But I'm like that 4th grade math teacher trying to instill the processes of solving long division problem into the class..."make sure you show the work", even if the short-answer could be easily discerned.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Perfect example, RONI and EMI denoted a La Nina that was better established than the traditional ONI would imply, so of some forecasters went warm in the east just based off of that...oops.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I'm taking about the actual pattern, though....not simply "warm or cold". Obviously warmer is the safe bet....
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Eh.....having issued 12 winter seasonal efforts now, I think they still have plenty of utility as long as you make an effort to incorporate climate change into the work. For instance, it's important to understand that what other forces are now competing with ENSO, and the ramifications said forces have on the hemispheric pattern. If you simply interpret a lower RONI as a weaker El Nino and blindly forecast colder because of that....yea, good luck.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Makes that succession of +WPO seasons that we had even more impressive considering we have also had a consistent cool ENSO baseline. No wonder we had such an awful stretch of eastern US winters given that we were ripping off +WPO La Nina events and the strong El Nino that was accompanied by -PDO.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm pretty sure we aren't getting a super El Nino.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, this past season already seemed to have behaved more like a +PDO, if anything, despite the continued negative readings.
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