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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Lets get cloudy, cool weekend afternoons with the sound of football filling the airwaves, and the scent of smoke in the nasal passage with rake in hand.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    If I had my way, it would be drizzle and 43 all weekend, so it's fine by me.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Crap is in the hand of the beholder.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    https://cyclonicwx.com/models/hovmoller/
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Regardless of the total picture, there exists absolutely astronomical, extraordinarily high potential during shorter intervals that belies what should be a mild seasonal mean....the devil is in the details and it's easy to miss the period when all hell broke loose when you only view a snapshot composite of a winter's life. Almost akin to considering a middle-aged guy like me....46 yrs, old, decent career, 4 beautiful children and an aggregate of circumstances that embodies a ho-hum mid-life...sure, but when viewing a 46-year composite mean, it's easy to miss the US Marine that collected 2 OUIs and came within a toad's whisker of having it all end long before any of my kids were even so much as a glint in my eye.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Usually in a warm ENSO of this magnitude, the GOA low is so prominent that it often bleeds into AK in the mean, so the season ends up predominately +EPO....BUT, one wild card is how that residual cool ENSO residue across the north Pacific parlays this season....yea, it will probably augment the Canadian ridge, but might it also mitigate the lower height leakage into AK, and potentially not bury the STJ quite as much as would be implied by the HOF-juggernaut El Nino composite?? Interesting....
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, that is what I figured he meant. I don't think we'll see that in the mean, but definitely possible for shorter windows.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I choose the black tail.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Do you mean the actual model data, or just the bogus tropical tidbits output?
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    What do you mean, a ridge extending down from the arctic through the west coast, rather than a more traidtional, El Nino-forced PNA ridge?
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Were you predicting -PNA for the season, though? What you are referring to is simply misinterpretation of a seasonal chart....I recall someone was telling me that the PNA would average negative. Anyway, NBD...I wasn't trying to call anyone out.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    My interpretation of that is volatility.....biased + first half, neutralish to perhaps even somewhat negative second half.....but AO should be negative.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    You can see that NF cold pool go bye-bye, as I was expecting earlier this summer.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    30 Day change:
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    August should be out early next week.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    August isn't quite out yet...May-July: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/atmoswrit/map/index.html
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, like you said....we need to give it through October.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Should be in the seasonal mean, but we need to time one during the negative intervals...there should be some.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    BTW, if you have seen the EURO and CANSIPS snowfall output, this appears to be what these models do. Multi-model blend:
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Sure, but the question you need to ask yourself..."is it already out of the picture completely"...because if the answer is no, then it will show up this season.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree. I wonder if a neutralish PDO with an El Niño of this magnitude doesn't shift the STJ inward and upward relative to climo for intense El Niño.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, someone in the New England forum was trying to tell me were going to have a -PNA this winter...I was like, find a super El Niño that pulled that off. -AO/+PNA means you can essentially eliminate the bottom dwelling seasons....even 1972 didn't have a -PNA. Now, maybe it will be bootleg, etc...but the season will average +PNA in the DJFM mean.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    What I can tell you based on what has been happening for the past decade is that the error is likely to be with respect guidance underestimating the scope and magnitude of that Canadian ridge, so it's probably safe to assume that the greater heights will extend further to the south and east than most guidance suggests.....which combined with the poor read on the Pacific makes me very suspicious of that trend to shove the lower heights northward on the CANSIPS. This isn't me saying awful winter....I don't think, or want that to be the case, but that doesn't mean that I'm going to don my Frosty the Snowman boxers every time that I post.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't know Wall, so I'll take your word for it. I think most on this board would agree that my only agenda is getting the forecast correct, and placing much stock into a model with such a poor initialization of the Pacific basin, both ENSO and extra tropical, gives me significant pause before seriously considering it's output. This isn't about CC, or how well the model did last year....it's about the fact that it has such an obviously poor read on the Pacific.
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