40/70 Benchmark

I don't consider 2020 El Nino, but the other two I have as analogs....I am expecting a neutral PDO. I don't see what is outlandish about that in the most powerful El Nino in history.

My view is it's definitely something to be mindful of and keep a very close vigil on, but it's too early to read too much into it.

You don't need to convince me of that...I just spent an entire weekend writing about it...but by the same token, you can't go on about how low of a correlation ENSO has this time of year in one post, then read too much into the current disconnect RE winter in the next.

I guess maybe for a small area...however, I feel like it may be tougher to pull with how much humidity is increased as a result of more moisture. I think higher nighttime minds may foil any attempt at a redux.

Looks like a fish to me.

"On the 233rd consecutive day of rains, I fastened the business-end of the noose to Sally-Mae's tree house and donned thy rubbers for added weight"

No way.

My dream-August, that's what.

Excerpt from my latest Pacific work...shoutout to @bluewavefor some of the graphics: Summer 2026 Ground Truth Still Somewhat Redolent of Cool ENSO Although it is true that forcing and gradients are comparatively weak in the summer relative to the cold season, there is no disputing that summer 2026 has diverged from the intense El Niño composite, which validates the disconnect between the tropical and mid latitude AAM data. The theme of this summer has been ridging and much above normal temperatures throughout much of the CONUS. This is in stark contrast to the summer pattern preceding other intense El Niño events, which featured a prevailing trough and much cooler temps across much of the CONUS. Here is the 2026 individual summer season compared to those preceding the past four strong El Nino events, which have gotten progressively warmer : Some of this difference is likely attributable to the general pattern of expanding ridges and shrinking troughs that is a byproduct of climate change. However, since the pattern this summer is essentially the diametric opposite of the one in the summer composite preceding intense El Niño, it is fair to wonder if the developing intense El Niño is continuing to face more MC competition than is readily apparent. Note the similarity to summer 2026 with the summer composite preceding strong La Niña events. Obviously it isn't a perfect match, as there are higher heights over the northeastern CONUS in the La Niña composite (left), but the argument could be made that it is a stronger match to 2026 than the intense El Niño summer composite.

Summer 2026 Ground Truth Still Somewhat Redolent of Cool ENSO Although it is true that forcing and gradients are comparatively weak in the summer relative to the cold season, there is no disputing that summer 2026 has diverged from the intense El Niño composite, which validates the disconnect between the tropical and mid latitude AAM data. The theme of this summer has been ridging and much above normal temperatures throughout much of the CONUS. This is in stark contrast to the summer pattern preceding other intense El Niño events, which featured a prevailing trough and much cooler temps across much of the CONUS. Here is the 2026 individual summer season compared to those preceding the past four strong El Nino events, which have gotten progressively warmer : Some of this difference is likely attributable to the general pattern of expanding ridges and shrinking troughs that is a byproduct of climate change. However, since the pattern this summer is essentially the diametric opposite of the one in the summer composite preceding intense El Niño, it is fair to wonder if the developing intense El Niño is continuing to face more MC competition than is readily apparent. Note the similarity to summer 2026 with the summer composite preceding strong La Niña events. Obviously it isn't a perfect match, as there are higher heights over the northeastern CONUS in the La Niña composite (left), but the argument could be made that it is a stronger match to 2026 than the intense El Niño summer composite.

1991 and 2018 also on the dewy list.....1991 was a strong El Nino with essentially neutral PDO and 2018 weak El Nino with decidedly negative PDO....both made my extra tropical Pacific analog composite.

Interesting that two of those "low dew August" years on top, 1957 and 1982, lead into strong El Nino events...the bottom "dewy August" list is comprised of predominately cool ENSO...yet here we are, heading that list. Tell me that the extra tropical Pacific is still at odds with ENSO without telling me-

Good assessment....that's where I'm at.

I don't agree...see where we're at in a few months. If we're still deeply negative, then I'll acquiesce, but I anticipate getting to around neutral.

This will couple more than 2024 at the height of the cold phase.

https://www.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/figures/db_hist_3mon_tcc.html

ECMWF hints at this, though I think this is exaggerated....likely closer to the coast than this. That is a resolution issue...like when the GFS places the CF near ORH a few days out from a storm.

Roundy's stuff favors W Canada.

I would do okay, but could def. see it being an ORH season...they have had some uncharacteristically skunkish seasons of late....gonna see that regress.

CFS January rendition would make some fun times for WOR folks....Miller B-East, much?

Has December near normal surprisingly. Is it a bit too cold? Probably....likely underdoing the magnitude and arial extent of that Canadian ridge, but I don't think this will be a bottom-dweller season in terms of snowfall.

Here is January:

Absolute same page....128-495 CFs. Megalopolis Storm CF was right over Wilmington.

This is the European monthly depiction of precip anomalies overlaid with temp anomalies for the month of Feb. Euro is my preferred solution because it doesn't have the zonked Modoki look that the CANSIPS and JMA do....that is overdone and crap. But the Euro simply evolves the El Nino in such a manner whereas the warmth gets pretty evenly distributed..pretty basinwide for winter. You drop those type of precip anomalies, I will gladly take my chances with a +1 temp anomaly at this latitude.