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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Just be careful with that severe-weather-weenie site.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    We probably need something like this to reconfigure the Pacific, even if it means this coming season sucks, of which I am not convinced..
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    .94"
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, I hear that....but first of all, I feel as though at this range, the reluctance to forecast an event of an unprecedented magnitude/nature should take precedence with any ultimate capitulation reserved for closer lead times. In other words....in July, it's safer to heavily incorporate analogs and if it still looks unprecedented later this summer and into the fall, then revisit. Secondly, this is just me musing when I offer guesstimates in the forum like that...it's not as though I'm issuing any type of published forecast online or anything.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I was saying it would end up centered around 140W.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    How do you access 33? I had a membership over there, but all I can find is the X and Facebook accounts....
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Oh, I know...he has a lot to offer...he used to DM me some times in the lead up to large events. He just doesn't take this site seriously, which is fine, but in that case just lurk.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    EURO def. in the CFS camp by the look of NDJ, which is what I would expect.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Def. a risk with a pumped STJ....see 2016. More often than not, that is more of a worry for NNE.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, all of the data is available in this post above. Check how closely CANSIPS resembles Modoki data set.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I wouldn't resign yourself to a lost season-just accept that we likely aren't getting much in the way of sustained cold.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Basin-wide, similarly to this...1982-1983 was very east-based, and even that had some fierce winter mixed in. December was pretty snowy in my area and of course the Feb blizzard....something to keep in mind given it was the one very strong warm ENSO without a pronounced +WPO, and we seem to have seen a decadal shift in the north Pacific over the past couple of years.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    The warmth isn't relegated to the east, though. We could see a sequence like 2016 with some extreme intervals of winter weather mixed in...it just won't be sustained.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Maybe we can get a depression to form
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    PROBABLY...but you never know with that much moisture hanging around....I got creamed just before Xmas in 1997, and the same thing nearly happened in 2023...it was just some flukey nuances of the of the PV phase that sent it west.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    CANSIPS is more full-fledged Modoki. CFS is more reasonable IMO given the magnitude if the warmth within the ENSO region.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, there is going to be some variability....it looks most like the east-based composite, but I agree that there will be some periods of dateline forcing. Heights are also extending back further west than the east-based composite in that forecast, which is a bit more difficult to dismiss than the northward displaced ridging, and denotes what you are referencing.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    If the model were right, we can probably assume that greater heights will leak southward into the NE given the tendency for seasonal guidance to underestimate modern ridges, so verification would be more reminiscent of the east-based composite.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    The intense composite has the ridge access displaced more to the south and over NE, like the east-based composite. It's definitely most redolent of east-based as compared to Modoki and Basin-wide, but that slight difference ostensibly allows for a salvageable pattern.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    I binned my El Nino composites by weak, mod, strong and intense.....the CFS looks exactly like the "strong" composite at 500mb (1957, 1965, 1986, 1987, 1991, 2009, 2023).
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I know the QBO will be positive...just looking for monthly numbers.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Anyone have any insight as to if/when they are every going to calculate the QBO again? It hasn't updated since February and with each passing month it gets more difficult to select analogs with any degree of specificity. I wish they would just use the ERA 5 data base....
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