40/70 Benchmark

I'm willing to bet that isn't an issue later this year.

I'll bet I end up right near the zone of demarcation...

It's quite challenging to entirely wipe the slate clean and not carry past forecasting failures into the next season, as this is something that I have grappled with after busting far too cold/snowy a couple of times during that least +WPO regime. That was definitely on my mind and played a role in the reluctance to fully commit in terms of aligning my temp composites to reflect the pattern that I was so confident would ensue.

I was wrong on that....the stratosphere never really clicked like I thought it would. The attempt the second week of February ended up being a fake-out, which is where we parted ways with 2018....then we ended up succeeding in a reversal in early March, but it wasn't a true SSW and was kind of late, anyway by that point. Disappointing finish to be sure, but I am happy overall with my outlook this year. I do need to fine tune how I develop my temp composites, though bc I wasn't cold enough...I'm still learning how to properly assimilate the role that CC plays in this. I think what I missed is that if the pattern is a dead-ringer for cold, which it was this year, then go nuts...don't water down the composites to account for CC in a generic sense because that is far too reductive a practice that will lead any forecaster astray. It can still get damn-cold, but it's just that the dice are now loaded against that particular outcome in any given region. The trick is to be a skilled and confident enough seasonal forecaster to identify those 1 or 2/10 seasons and go all-in. You can't be non-committal and meek, or else accuracy will suffer. The truth is that I am remiss because I diagnosed this seasonal pattern about as accurately was any accomplished seasonal forecaster ever will, but I never fully committed to it, which was reflected in my temp composites.

6" here...I've seen worse in terms of snowfall, but been very mild.

I can't believe how badly March sucked, but then again, it makes sense in one respect given seasonal snowfall was already about where I had envisioned.

Yea, it's the type of pattern we could work with a month ago, but now? Zone of proximal butt-plunge, as the spring zealots will still find it obnoxious to be outside, and the weenies will be at a loss for a reason to post the snow emoji. Perfect-

Yup.

That's what I'm thinking...

I'm pretty much wiped. You can rest easy.

I'm fully immersed in fantasy baseball, so it's going to have to take a strong consensus for a major event to pull me back in, and a day 7 OP EURO won't do it.

Yea, probably the latitude at which that foot will verify.

Odd....someone accessed his account because his profile says last online 10 hours ago....

You don't say?

Oh, man.....so sorry to hear. Dude was definitely enthusiastic about weather...he'd go with a 40"-burger somewhere in just about every big nor' easter. RIP.

Nope.

.74" event total...snow finally wiped except for the 3' drift near the fence...still a few inches there.

Rain has underperformed... .71"

I smell another CC diatribe brewing....see ya next fall.

Unless something really looks ominous, I've viewed guidance for the last time this AM...just did a cursory glace and it seems more conducive for NNE.

Yea, I'm not holding my breath...if something comes together, great.....but I'm not pinned to the models. I've reached the stage where I'm content with the winter and am ready for the off-season....but if the hype starts to mount, I'll get ready for one last hurrah. I haven't cancelled the subscriptions...yet.

Pretty similar to 2017-2018, just flip February and March and slit the snow between Jan/Feb.

Yea, I've pretty much checked out.

Best QPF probably south of me ......again, which I won't mind this time.

Cleared out here.