Jump to content

40/70 Benchmark

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    78,861

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, but it is my belief that we will have less MC influence than 2023 and more variability than 1997 due to the magnitude of warmth throughout the basin. That said, we shouldn't have the early season blocking that 1997 did due to the different solar and QBO factors.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Okay. The NDJ period trended towards a greater SE trough.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't agree that it's more east-based than 1997, but that is beside the point. You are obsessing over the temp anomalies themselves....it will be above average. We get that. The model will be too cold...got it. But why is it trending colder this late in the game is my point.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think it's important not to automatically dismiss the correction towards default El Nino leading into the strongest El Nino in history.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right, but was there a trend towards a more defined se trough this late in the game? I feel like that is what is important because call me crazy, but this may just be the year when a correction towards default El Nino may be the correct adjustment.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's probably due to the anti-2023 effect, which demonstrated that weaker doesn't necessarily mean colder. Guidance is probably picking up on the reduced MC competition, thus the less inhibited se CONUS trough expression.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    That one may have 2009-2010 like potential as we near solar min and potentially continue to relax the Pacific.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think it's much more for the east coast than your area, but def. get the point.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, we will learn a lot this year...the earth wants ENSO to couple with the mid latitudes because it's that coupling that represents the most proficient avenue for the redistribution of all of that heat...this unprecedented ENSO is the planet's best attempt at bridging that gap in the face of mounting anthropogenic resistance. The only entity that desires the eradication of the west warm pool more than east coast snow enthusiasts is mother nature.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think it's late at this point....my hedge was that it will certainly couple more than 2023, perhaps along the lines of 2015, but I still doubt whether 1997 is walking through that door.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, this is why I was originally reluctant to accept the super-idea...but when I did my deep dive on the polar considerations a couple of weeks ago, I really considered everything from a solar perspective and it's really the 2023-2024 strong event that was the outlier....not this event. That is the one that "didn't fit".
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Is there anyone left debating the super Nino outcome? It already is I gave that up in March.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    You just described 75% of social media.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Oh, I misunderstood....right. I agree with that. It was obvious. As far as the ELI goes.....it's really not even worth arguing bc it's a moot point this season, anyway given the degree of warmth in the basin. That being said, if anyone uses that index exclusively to assess ENSO orientation moving forward, there will undoubtedly be issues....although that can probably be said about any particular metric.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    You don't feel that ENSO is coupled with the tropics right now? I guess we can agree to disagree, then. I prefer a to use all of them TBH, and they all imply the same thing...ENSO is driving the tropics attm.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    There is definitely a correlation....obviously the mid latitudes stand a better chance of being in sync with the tropics of the MEI is higher, but it's not absolute. Kind of akin to how the AO is correlated to colder mid latitude winters, but there are always exceptions when areas outside of it's domain are pervasive drivers.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    MEI is great for what it's designed to do...assess how well coupled ENSO is with the tropical atmosphere: The bi-monthly Multivariate El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index (MEI.v2) is the time series of the leading combined Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) of five different variables (sea level pressure (SLP), sea surface temperature (SST), zonal and meridional components of the surface wind, and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR)) over the tropical Pacific basin (30°S-30°N and 100°E-70°W). I'm not sure why it should be viewed as a quality assessment outside of that bounded area of the tropical Pacific....it's not going to be able to detect how well the tropics are in sync with the mid latitudes, rather it is designed to measure the quality of the coupling between the ocean and atmosphere in the tropical Pacific. The RONI is probably better equipped to gage the link between the tropics and mid latitudes, but ultimately I think we just need to dig in an assess for ourselves like Chris has been doing. I don't care is the MEI is 5.3, there is still obviously a prism between the tropics and mid latitudes and no, that isn't necessarily a "good" thing for winter.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    None of us are perfect...best any forecaster can do is try to keep an open mind, be willing to admit error and look to improve. My outlooks got a lot better the moment I stopped perceiving alternative view points as a threat and tried incorporating them....truth is that every individual has something to offer.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    My mistake...I guess I spoke out of turn and should have double-checked. Thanks. I'm going to stick with that source, though in an effort to be homogeneous.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Completely agreed. That is all I was getting at originally.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is the one that I use, as I have found that the other reading hasn't accurately depicted the severity of this Pacific cold phase throughout the 2020's. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think it will end up near neutral....either side.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, basically a -PDO negatively interferes with every element of El Nino that is favorable from the perspective of an east coast winter enthusiast.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think the 12-rack you consumed for breakfast deconstructively interfered with your thought process.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I've said before I'm not a big fan of the ELI, and frankly disagree it's more east-based than 1997, but I also don't think that it matters. Solar is another reason to bet against the 2009 and 1957 analogs.
×
×
  • Create New...