40/70 Benchmark

Aside from March 1993, which storm that dumped on Atlanta gave us 2'+?

Which is why I have orographic enhancement in addition to OES...not sure why it would the band would run east to west when the topography is N to S.

I'm talking reality, not long range model runs...but that isn't high-end, anyway....nice storm, but not anything epic.

Yea, no thanks.

Any storm dropping snowfall that far south will not be high end for us, unless it's a 1/100 year full phaser.

I'm not shocked....I mentioned to Steve, 2014-2015 was the best QBO/solar match I could find...couple that with the subsurface warmth within the ENSO region, and bang. Furthermore, check out the analogs in this +TNH composite that I compiled for the late January/early February period in my outlook? Here is a composite of seasons that fit this +TNH description over the past decade or so. I also liked 2012-2013 as analog, but ultimately decided against using 2012-2013 and 2014-2015 because they were too warm ENSOish, but I thought they both had value for latter January into early February. Moving forward I am going to be more aggressive with straying from ENSO in my seasonal analog composite unless it's strong.

Tightening up that gradient with the press of confluence...may not be worst thing in the world for se NH independent of any OES.

Got my answer Figured.

How did it trend from 00z?

The N to S bands over interior are orographically enhanced due to onshore H850 inflow.

I'd rather see it get west of me than stay well east TBH....last think I want is it pinned inside of 128.

EURO and some TV outlets have it by me Sunday night before collapsing Monday.

PD II absolutely blew in my area.

If I were the Pats, I would have practiced in Denver all week to get acclimated to the altitude and avoid the travel delays.

Yea, I was being facetious with those comps, but I would still like to avoid getting 15" while Norwell gets 27". That said, it definitely wouldn't induce a melt with another shot on the horizon.

ORH hills and inside 128, I should say...but EURO is insistent on that northern band, which bodes well for MRV.

Especially on EURO....I'm just nervous of wind backing more NE and 850 flow weakening or shifting.....I just want to avoid getting Dec 2003, PD II, Jan 2022ed...not asking for a jack, but just avoid getting 12" while surrounding areas have 20-30".

EURO matches my forecast best RN.

I think they are for inside of 128.

Yea, like said speaking with you yesterday, there is a limit with PV pressing, west NAO block and 50/50 low.

I think I'd be like 13-15" that NAM run.

I need the 850 flow to save me, otherwise I'll be one of the lower amounts around with banding pinned inside of 128.

Weenie meso enhancement for you Yea, here we go....subby city.

Yea, I'm perfectly content with 12-18".....more is a welcome bonus.