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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Lightning accompanying downpour in Tewksbury
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm largely ignoring AI guidance this season...they are in AAA in my view. Maybe ready for the big leagues next season...maybe consider as an ensemble at times.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, this is probable a "one and done" forecast, like the last one.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    I have to look at this over the weekend....I just briefly paid it homage on a wider, synoptic scale on Tuesday, but haven't yet done a deep dive.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's probably right because it always is when it sucks....but of course fell flat on it's face 12/2.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    This time of year, 40 hardly dents it...March and even latter February is a different story.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm sure everyone remembers how brutally awful I handled the El Nino a couple of years ago....was completely undressed by @bluewaveon how it would interact with the west Pacific. It was the best thing that ever happened to me in terms of my ability to forecast on a seasonal level
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Ha...I remember that. Wow, that is weak.....lost some respect. Acknowledgement of errors is the primary catalyst for growth.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    :crap:
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think January 2022 is a decent analog, but the cold will likely be delayed a bit relative to that month.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    ...or when they have 4 little kids and are desperately trying to complete a 36 page winter outlook
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Actually a very apt disclaimer for these past several years.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Certainly one of the more innocuous ones I have observed on this forum...
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Absolute-100% same page.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Hopefully it doesn't blow the soap and shampoo away
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Now it's also pouring, which isn't as inspiring from a wind standpoint...
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    First of all, I think some of the guidance exaggerated the blocking...especially a couple of days ago. Secondly, -NAO doesn't matter if your arctic flow is cut-off, which it will be with the lower heights building over AK to counter the Bering ridge. Finally, and this goes along with #1....I think guidance not only exaggerated the amplitude of the blocking, but the extent to which it will retrograde into a favorable position, and east-based "thumb-ridges" are far less impactful for the east.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    I trust Will and Scott over any OCM now that Harv is gone.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Then do it if it gets them to spend.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm thrilled it doesn't look like last year.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    March 2001 is another great analog.....maybe March 2023 with a less hostile Pacific.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Instantly top of my list.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I do have some glimmer of hope that selling the Pens will afford them a bit more investment in the Sox, but they will probably just pocket it and buy giant golden dildos for their wives-
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