40/70 Benchmark

Eh....maybe more like replacement level...say Darren Bragg https://www.fangraphs.com/players/darren-bragg/83/stats/batting

Yea, I can't even begin to say at this point. Contrary to what some are implying.....I haven't "forecast" anything yet. I have said numerous times that I don't even begin to delve in until after the spring barrier. While I have opined on several occasions throughout the thread that I doubt that a super El Nino will materialize, that is simply an early guess based on superficial observations. If June comes around and the data strongly suggests that we are going over 2.0, then my initial ENSO blogs will reflect that. I don't know why on earth anyone would struggle to distinguish casual discourse on an internet forum from an actual forecast. If it can be found and linked on my blog, then it's a forecast...if you are quoting a guess from an internet thread in March or April, then that isn't a forecast. That said, at the end of the day, the only forecast that is graded is what I post in the seasonal write up released in early November....data changes throughout the year, which is not a novel concept because seasonal forecasting is immensely complex, fluid and multifaceted. I often respond to dissenting viewpoints with sarcasm...yes, as I opt to inject humor into any semblance of conflict in an effort to mitigate tension. This is different from name calling in my mind. However, if it turns out that I am wrong, as was the case concerning the El Nino of 2023-2024, I think that both yourself, as well as @bluewavewould attest to the fact that I wholeheartedly capitulated and offered congratulations. I then authored a long blog post in an effort to illustrate where I exactly I went stray as part of a concerted effort to avail of the opportunity to learn from my mistake. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/05/winter-2023-2024-outlook-largely-failure.html Everyone makes errors, but an "idiot" refuses to own them, and then ultimately acquiesce to an alternative view point in order to gain a greater breadth of perspective. I think I have aptly demonstrated a willingness to do so by way of my online contributions to this forum.

Not sure which I enjoy more, the liberation from mother nature's infernal oven courtesy of the Atlantic's salty life raft, or @Typhoon Tipcolorful rectal analogies....it's close.

I could see an evolution like 2023-2024, but hopefully we would have a more conducive western Pacific this go around to the extent that we would at least have a fighting chance to score a decent period or two.

Strobe lighting on the privates?

Man, thank god for backdoor fronts...almost makes the 33-and-rain days worth it.

I don't "use it to forecast". It's just something I have noticed about the strongest of events. I love how 1983 and 2016 are qualified as BS when in fact they were officially designated as La Niña....that is BS. 1966-1967 sure as hell seems cool-neutral to me........1957 and 1991, sure....I'll grant that. Must be a sample size issue I don't think I used any offensive language in my response to Chuck.....if he feels as though I did, by all means, let me know. At least to me, employing sarcasm is different than using incendiary terms like "idiot". And yes, as a father of four young children and a licensed independent social worker/therapist, I would be immensely offended if I were called a pedophile, despite the fact I have never harmed any child. Frankly. I find your analogy utterly disgraceful, but it doesn't surprise me coming from you.

I'm not offended. I'm proud of my work over the last decade plus...learned a ton. I'm just tired of your loathsome, vile persona acting as though you're superior to everyone and always spewing venom. When in the hell did I run to the mods? I know as a byproduct of your incredibly meager existence you repeatedly made baseless claims of me plagiarizing your work....I called that out, but I don't recall ever getting mods involved. That accusation is every bit as accurate is your idiotic claim about the "smiley" snowfall pattern leading to another shitty east coast winter. Of course, you never acknowledged that. Okay, cool...you found a couple of exceptions ....of course, within this context the sample size is no longer an issue, and those examples can be used to completely debunk my assertion because it's convenient. "The sample size" crap is so fraudulent when you aren't consistent with it. Like I said, put your money where your keyboard is and take the bet, if I'm such an idiot.

I out the central air on a bit before bit and after I woke up this AM...but no need now.

Yep...62.2 underneath the baseball.

71.6

Great...."now batting for East Coast Winter Enthusiasts....Dave....Kingman".

That would be brutal for eastern winter enthusiasts...would mean warmer and less snowfall overall, but perhaps more large events.

I start following ENSO in the blog in about a month, once I do the wrap up on the prior season and we clear the spring prediction barrier. Should be pretty clear by then.

Would make for an easy forecast in terms of temps.

I have a very low tolerance for people who can't disagree without hurling insults......talk about a tell-tale sign of feelings of inadequacy. Ball-busting sarcasm is one thing, but there is simply no place for calling anyone an idiot, or referring to their postulation as "idiotic".

What is idiotic is your inability to wrap your mind around the fact that it works for the strongest of events. Weaker events are much more variable and cool ENSO doesn't get as strong; I have already stated that. Assuming we peak over 2.0 during the coming El Nino, I will bet you an idiotic $100 right now that 2027-2028 is yet another cool ENSO. Should be something akin to taking the proverbial candy from a baby for you, right?? I get what you are saying about the sample size being inadequate in the grand scope of time, but that doesn't necessarily mean that the relationship doesn't exist. You can pull sample size on any relationship or correlation with respect to the weather because all of our sample sizes are inadequate. We have been keeping records for such a small fraction of time.

Well, we won't have the frequency of strong cool ENSO events.....no Uber-strong events. It's the strongest events that are most likely to trigger the opposite phase.

I agree....I could totally see a weak-neutralish +PDO. Just saying I don't think we are going to do 2023/1972 again.

Good work....backs up @Stormchaserchuck1's research on +QBO warm ENSO being a torch in the east....but I'll bet it's an ice box in the east if you check back in about 337 years or so-

Classic Chuck... Love you, mean it...your work is great...but your default go-to when the data doesn't illustrate what you theorize that it should is "give it another few centuries, and it will work". Well, perhaps my great, great, great, great, great, great, great grandchildren can dig you up and capitulate, but for now, there is in fact a correlation there. It makes sense because the mechanisms that drive ENSO are self-destructive, which is what perpetuates the cycle. I wrote about almost a decade ago. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2016/08/delayed-oscillation-and-newtons-third.html

We did have that....we went from a super El Niño to a weak La Niña....that is a large swing to the opposite ENSO state.

Damn, I was expecting it vault positive as soon as the new EURO run modeled a 2.5 ONI next fall.

That isn't what I said......what I said was the majority of the excessive warmth from the 2015 was stored in the western Pacific, which triggered a default cool ENSO paradigm moving forward. That being said, there actually is a documented propensity for powerful ENSO events to trigger opposite phases..it's called the delayed oscillation theory. 72-73 was followed by La Nina....1982-1983....followed by la Nina....1997, 2015 and 2023...ditto.

The more central-based super warm ENSO of 2015 triggered the development of the warm pool, just as I believe a super-eastern biased El Nino would eradicate it.