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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    That cold in the high plains is NOT stock El Niño.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yup...which is why they are my two top polar analogs.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    The westerly QBO and the descending solar are two red flags for that kind of an outcome in the seasonal mean, neither of which were present in 2009....not to mention nearly 20 years of CC.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would be careful with buying into it full-stock....I feel like these Modoki like solutions are overdoing it in the seasonal mean because they are undergoing the magnitude of the warmer interludes early on. Rather, I interpret those solutions as validation for my conceptualization of how the second half will evolve.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    That quick warm up in early spring is another parallel to 2009-2010.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    1997 was easterly QBO/Low-ascending solar, so it isn't that surprising that the polar domain was more disturbed early on.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    That CFS plot looks like 2009-2010 IMO.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    That doesn't look like prohibitive warmth in SNE, either....like 2004-2005 warmth probably. ... +1-+3F. Give me that all day long if it comes with tons of moisture....I'll take that over last year in a heartbeat. 2004-2005 was slightly above average in terms of temps, but only 1995 and 2014 saw higher total seasonal snowfall IMBY.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Happy Nape Day!!! Solar max, exit stage right!!
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    4 consecutive days and counting of 90+.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Reasonable outcome, but I don't put much stock in the output, otherwise.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Sure, but ask yourself which season was better suited for that to actually occur than this one?
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    NAO and WPO were much more favorable....I feel like the WPO helped to limit major precipitation events on the east coast last year. I know it looks very negative in the seasonal composite, but it was a bootleg WPO and was actually positive in the mean.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Chris, 1995-1996 was a perfect storm of a flawless pattern and extraordinary luck.....I get what you are saying about the impact of CC of the size of ridges, but we could get an identical pattern to 1995-1996 100 times over and not come away with record snowfall the length of the east coast. That season was a unicorn. The pattern last year was not as favorable, as not only was the NAO severely negative in the mean owed to the easterly QBO/solar min combo, but the WPO was also strongly negative. The pattern was simply more favorable that year, even if the ridge sizes were identical. Your point is valid, but that isn't the only reason that we didn't get a repeat of 1995-1996.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, right under the trough...but that was essentially the only area on the globe where that happened, which is why it's so exceedingly rare at any given locale during modern times. That said, our area is due for a run of colder seasons relative to the west.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I agree with that. I have been touting a lot more variability throughout the second half....but -NAO in the seasonal mean is a very tall task.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, it's a touch warmer up here, but NBD. Generally speaking, you are correct. Interesting trend.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    In the seasonal mean? Plenty of evidence......Like 4 neg NAO seasons past 30 years, descending solar and +QBO. I'm not speaking in absolutes here, but it's pretty easy to make a case for that.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, because the ridge was out west....his point is that the ridges are always more intense than expected.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    I could totally see double digit + departures in December.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Good summer?
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    I only knew bc Kev mentioned it in our group text, so sprang into action an got the gage out.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not sure I agree with that for the latter half of the season.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I had a brief shower around 11pm...just .02".
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looks like -WPO is favored next winter? Would fit with the theme of the recent shift.
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