Jump to content

40/70 Benchmark

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    78,520

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Those on the Gulf coast should keep an open mind this winter, some dude in Pensacola measured a foot of snow outside of his office 17 months ago.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Nothing close-minded about my sentiment. I'll peer out the window every now and again if it happens to look ominous, but that is about the extent of my commitment.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Seems a higher percentage play at your latitude from what I have gathered.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Convection just doesn't do much for me because the odds of anything noteworthy at any given location is just so low........I mean, what are the odds one of those rogue cells sets up over MBY....and furthermore, what are the odds said rogue cell offers anything more anomalous than some heavier rain and gusty winds. While the jackpot is inherently elusive, at least during major winter storms the noteworthy significant blanket of snowfall is pretty uniform. That is a worthwhile endeavor relative to the ill-fated summer rendition of pin the convective tail on the weenie.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm the same, completely, except for hurricanes.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Lovers' quarrel?
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I need the rain desperately...hopefully some big storms pop up here.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    https://peakbagger.com/List.aspx?lid=19322&cid=56096
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I haven't seen under 30" since 2011-2012.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm not talking about winning the relative to the mean trophy...it was my first season that wasn't 10" or more below average snowfall since 2017-2018. I'll take it and run.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    CANSIPS clearly has a Modoki look just viewing H5 next winter...don't have to look at SSTs. CFS has a more east-based look. My guess is it will look more like the CFS in the seasonal mean given how strong the event is going to be, but I could certainly see a stretch from latter January into February looking like the CANSIPS. I suspect we won't see a wall-to-wall furnace, although I'm sure Bluewave and the climate changer will be quoting tweets declaring it the warmest winter on record across the CONUS.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Definitely been a hot month out here...only recently shifted more temperate.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'll tell you, even if it's warm, I welcome a more active pattern with the El Nino...man, I am so sick of this drought the past few years. Even last winter was dry...there was only decent snow because it was so cold...precip was below average and there weren't many coastals.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    That data set seems to have a great deal of -PDO warm ENSO events, which may explain the curious QPF deficit. Super events were very dry over the interior, implying a coastal storm track...small sample size, I know.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I wouldn't completely dismiss this rather uncanny resemblance to last season, despite ENSO...one hallmark of CC that I have noticed is that these patterns tend to stagnate and become a theme over several seasons.....previously, we had the never-ending cold west/warm east +WPO look, but the north Pacific seems to have flipped starting with the the 2024-2025 season. It has remained rather dry, albeit colder, but ENSO is likely going to be the vehicle for change with respect to having precipitation pick up.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I was just thinking that yesterday on a totally anecdotal level...the big heat this month hasn't seemed Nino like. Glad the empirical data jives with my hunch.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm sure someone is going to explain why it wouldn't be enjoyable and would entail certain economic collapse and death, but we are hammered with that over GW, anyway....so excuse me if I salvage bit of solace form the prospect of my final days being snow-filled.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    "It plays a crucial role in the climate system, helping regulate global weather patterns. Its collapse would have enormous implications, including much more extreme winters" On no, not that...
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    93 again...heatwave
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Interesting...and for some, unsettling-
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    93 today.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    I will say, we are due for a break, so I would not at all be shocked if this one turned out okay...like 1982. Cold, no (at least not sustained)...but some good storms, yes.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    The only super El Nino that was decent here is 1982.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Lagging RONI was likely a reflection of the more meager Aleutian low, as we have discussed...but the huge ridge over the northeast was all ONI.
×
×
  • Create New...