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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think these changes are entirely immaterial with the degree of warmth throughout ENSO.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    No one thought it was right with a straight Modoki in the seasonal mean.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    1.78" Three-day total IMBY...much needed.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Go back and search...he literally calls for East coast bullseye every season.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    The arctic outbreak INVO VD Day was pretty remarkable.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I wouldn't because I think it will be solid.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, that's there I'm at.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    That's why Chuck's formula is negative.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'd bet against this being once in a lifetime given the acceleration of CC....it's not a coincidence.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    QBO is a great forecasting tool....I've been killing it the past couple years integrating the QBO with solar cycle.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I understand all of that....and I have tried to explain to you that you are taking that composite far too literally....it's not a forecast composite....it does't even incorporate the extra tropical Pacific. It's literally just a composite derived from solar, QBO and ENSO data, as that is how I assess the polar fields.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, generating clicks....which is often the antithesis of sound meteorology. Same crap-maps every year...without fail. I know to ignore him, but the masses don't know any better.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    God, I can't stand him...biggest hack there is.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    He was okay on a seasonal level, but I remember he initially rushed the flip back to cold in January. He kept to trying to go cold again first week and I knew it would take until mid month. At least he owned it.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, those are the brief shots of possibly historic cold. Probably January, then wave 1 reflection triggers a flip of the ride to Greenland and the -NAO will be more protracted. See Jan-Feb 1983.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Oh, okay....agreed. I thought you were implying that it may literally be negative...no way in hell. I agree that it could be boot leg.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes we can; it's gong to be positive. I'll bet you $500 right now- There is absolutely zero doubt in my mind. The PDO is another story, as that is much more nebulous.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I was referring to JB, not you.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    No wonder I'm in a severe drought...this spot is always a regional min.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Actually viewing the data that you're using is overrated.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think that tells you all you need to know in terms of seasonal temp anomaly, which really only has about a 1/10 chance of being cold in this modern era, anyway...so it really doesn't tell you much.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    @raindancewxMakes perfect sense to me....1997 obviously for ENSO given intensity, but the rest are great polar analogs...only one I don't have is 2018, but that will probably be there when I do the extra tropical Pacific next month.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    You missed my point. I agree it favors the mid atl for above average snowfall, that isn't my point. The "equal chances" stance is crap. Make a call. I'm not directing this specifically at you.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I thought that was just December...
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, basically 1982-1983. 2005 was a top 3 season in SNE....I don't expect that.
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