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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    1983 is also the only super El Nino with a somewhat negative WPO.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'll take the over on snowfall relative to 1997.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    1983 was also very east-based, and to be frank, it's a better polar analog given the QBO and solar cycle. 2016 was actually much warmer given the MC influence, it just happened to have the one storm.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's not handling the Pacific well at all.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Is he still waiting for his canonical, front-loaded La Nina from last year?
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    CANSIPS def. has that Canadian ridge too far NW....I'm sure of it. Most of my composites have it just NNW of the lakes.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Absolute same page.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    August Run: September Run:
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Odd...CANSIPS corrected the El Nino east again, but pattern actually trended a bit better. Maybe a sign of what I was saying about Modoki value not being a big deal when you have this much warmth throughout the basin, or the model is just OTL
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I haven't thought too much about temp departures numbers yet, but yea...maybe even a bit colder. I could see it being like +3 up here. A lot will depend on whether we get that one exotically warm month on the front end, which is very possible.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm confident that it's too cold.....these seasonal models can be in error right up until verification, as we have seen. That being said, I don't expect an awful snowfall season for the east coast.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would be careful with the CANSIPS...it's still evolving this El Nino too much towards the Modoki end of the spectrum. It's in error in that respect. Raindance just pointed that out, as did I in my blog last week.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    No surprise with an El Nino this powerful...no way it's going to be a -EPO in the seasonal mean.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I been noticing that, too, which isn't a shock since we all know that the Modoki look that it and the JMA have been selling is overcooked.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    If it were ever going to happen, this is the year.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    I love how every few days he takes to social media and declares Iran dead, yet the war carries on and prices stay up. I should have went on X yesterday and told everyone that the Sox kicked ass in the Bronx and have clinched the division.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    New run of the seasonals should be out soon....I expect them to back off of the -NAO and go warmer early on.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Should be 40s with his elevation
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Wow, looks cool next weekend...nice.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Interesting...didn't know that. Confirms what I had already suspected about this December. Maybe that is why El Nino Decembers are usually warm....not so much about El Nino itself, but some of the intervals of -SOI that goes along with it...though, I guess it really doesn't matter.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Like I have been saying, you need to take that "SevereweatherEurpe" or whatever it is with a grain of salt....I picked apart his arguments for a neg NAO season in my July blog, as his stuff is full of half-truths. He doesn't lie, but he cherry picks data and doesn't tell you the whole story. Funny how it doesn't look as favorable for an NAO winter now a month later.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    I expected that and explicitly predicted that your index would neutralize when I did my polar post in latter July.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Getting pretty close to go-time for Check's NAO calculation....should be shifting towards + with only one month remaining in the period...
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yup.
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