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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I thought that was just December...
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, basically 1982-1983. 2005 was a top 3 season in SNE....I don't expect that.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm sure below average, but LES belts are a wild card. 1972-1973, 1982-1983, 1997-1998, 2015-2016.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    I could see a situation like 2005, 2015 and 2016 where we flip with a big storm the last week of January, but it would be a mild month in the mean.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm not talking about early on...forget that. December is going to be warm. Case closed. But some guidance like the JMA and EURO are trying to pull it back far enough west to salvage January....that is what I am skeptical of. I think that guidance is overdone.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Exciting stuff....there is a unicorn scenario in there which it pulls everything just far enough to act like a Modoki, but I would only bet on that for small periods right now.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I can't stand that cop-out style....just make a forecast. Is there luck involved, sure....but there is luck in everything...it's called chaos. If the Super Bowl is close and it comes down to one play, do they stop the game and just hand out "equal chance" ribbons to very player?
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't even do maps..I do a snowfall table and give ranges.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    If I had a snowfall map right now, it would look like raindance's.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I could not agree with raindance more....my QBO composite is a bit different, but he just echoed that premise of my write up last night with absolute surgical precision in just a far more condensed manner. Here an excerpt from my work: Key Factors to Potentially Fuel More Active Second Half than Currently Forecast The preliminary Eastern Mass Weather polar composite is littered with seasons that underwent a notable transition from a benign December-January period to a rather frenzied February and/or March, as El Niño peaks and undergoes a subtle change in orientation. It was mentioned that this is a signal that is emergent among some seasonal guidance. It was postulated that these forecasts are overstated and exaggerated, and are likely to be transient in nature. However, it was also asserted that the forecast unprecedented intensity of El Niño should be of sufficient magnitude to at long last shift the western Pacific warm pool, which has been a fixture for a over a decade, further to the east. The question is whether it simply shifts to the dateline and acts as a Modoki, or even further east, which would heighten the odds of a very mild outcome, per the intense/east-based El Niño composites. Another option is for it to not move enough, which may produce an outcome similar to the MC-oriented 2023-2024 season, which is viewed was the least likely outcome. At the very least, the European seasonal guidance is supporting the current forecast for a mid season transition to greater volatility, but it looks to be even more exaggerated given it's assessment of the January polar domain. Perhaps the eruption of Mount Agung was not justification for the outright dismissal of the 1963-1964 QBO analog from the polar composite, however, there is plenty of time to assess that decision as subsequent trends are modeled and future data is digested.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    What I did tonight is just one part of what will be the full outlook...I also do a whole section on the extra tropical Pacific, which I haven't even touched yet. I also consider some sensible weather analogs from the summer across the country...this is just the first piece to the puzzle.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Obviously, I understand that if you read through....but I'm not sure how to avoid that with an analog composite. Not to mention this isn't a winter forecast composite....it's a preliminary polar domain composite in July. Anyway, I did address this within the narrative. The correction to watch for in verification is higher heights over the southeast and an expansion of the Canadian ridge to the southeast, as lower heights in the vicinity of the southeastern CONUS has been a bias during this modern era. This also applies to the preliminary polar analog composite. All of that being said, if it is still possible to pop a strong GOA low in the seasonal mean, this El Niño will do it.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Reading quickly, cold AMO favors stronger PV, warm weaker. I have to brush up on that.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    I guess so, since it's North Atlantic....I'll probably add it to the polar section in the full outlook.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think AMO is directly tied to the polar domain, though.... Yea, I have gradually been expanding my purview since I started that blog in March 2015.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, it's tough to convey your thoughts with surgical precision in an analog composite, but I hedged heavily throughout the narrative that confidence was much higher in a +NAO than +AO....at one point, I calculated the DJFM mean of the composite and the AO was almost dead-on neutral...barely positive.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Funny how that NW-SE slot of warmth in my composite is the polar (no pun intended) opposite of last year, which had the cold swath there.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    The AMO is pretty much the only aspect I didn't really touch on, though I supposed that isn't specifically connected to the polar domain, so that is probably best left for the actual outlook....but I do have that in the back of my head for colder risks. I def feel the correction vector for me is colder. Didn't December 2018 have a mid Atlantic snowstorm? I remember it missed me, but I think it nailed VA.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Oh, I was speaking specifically of SSW....I understand that in general, the PV is weaker during El Niño.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Did I say La Niña? Must have been a typo..where about?
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Shit, I can't compete with that...should have done my homework-
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    My early look at the polar domain...pretty deep for a first hedge. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/07/preliminary-assessment-of-polar-domain.html Primary Polar Analogs: 1982-1983, 2015-2016 2026-2027 Polar Analog Composite:
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    My early look at the polar domain...pretty deep for a first hedge. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/07/preliminary-assessment-of-polar-domain.html Primary Polar Analogs: 1982-1983, 2015-2016 2026-2027 Polar Analog Composite:
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    @Stormchaserchuck1What did you say the SD of your formula is? .30? 70% of getting .30 within the outcome? @bluewaveDo you know where that post is that you made comparing past seasonal forecasts to reality? TIA.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Absolutely agreed with this....the warmth in 1.2 renders it a moot point in terms of the seasonal mean, however the warmth in the rest leave the door open for some volatility IMHO. Regardless, it will be warm overall.
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