Jump to content

40/70 Benchmark

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    78,983

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I get it's too early to definitely say whether that will chance by the time that the winter season ensues, but the mid latitude ground truth relative to the development of past major El Nino events dictates that this definitely remains a work on progress.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    It seems to me like we are establishing a modest cool ENSO baseline of sorts due to the increased warmth pooling in the western Pacific, however, for that same reason the frequency of powerful El Nino events is also increasing as part or the overall redistribution oriented efforts to maintain the global heat budget.....ie more frequent La Nina, but weaker...less frequent El Nino, but more powerful ones.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think it's also possible to get too extreme in the other direction as far CC goes, and this isn't a slight at John..as I discussed last spring, I was actually guilty of that last winter and it ultimately served to tarnish what was an otherwise absolutely exemplary seasonal effort. It's crucial to find and maintain that balance between the synthesis of lessons learned to inform future efforts, while also appreciating that each individual season possesses important differences. I'm still trying to find my proverbial footing in that regard.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think you need to look beyond the CC aspect, too, though....most guidance will be too cold...got it. But if it's right with the orientation of those heights into our area, then we'd have some chances....I get the exaggerated SE CONUS trough, etc....but that isn't entirely prohibitive, TBH, it could even be beneficial for us relative the mid atl as long as the gradient doesn't get overly steep. The STJ with these things can sometimes get buried.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Congrats to my great, great, great, great, great grandkids on perpetual El Nino.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    We always talk about a lag with respect to ENSO....this may be a case where that logic can be applied on a grander scale....yea, yea....record coupling in the tropics, I get it...but we don't live there.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I'm with you on feeling as though the old regime isn't entirely washed out, even though it may appear as though it should be.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Good points.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    If you were to fathom a scenario that would at long last, reposition that dreaded west-warm pool, this is it.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Where is that from? Weathermodels.com? That looks very much like my extra tropical Pacific composite.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm not suggesting that we are going back to the 60s in a few years, so I think we're on the same page there.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    The earth's #1 motive is self-preservation, and the primary resistance to this objective is prohibitive warmth.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think I relate to his philosophical approach.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think the -NAO signs are more about a beacon of hope in a sea of winter-maelstrom, rather than a "silver-bullet" for the cold season...of it should be, anyway.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, I have noted that the signal for -NAO to develop mid-season also favors some eastern bias. No guarantees...1972 was pre CC, didn't have an extremely hostile polar domain, and was still wretched.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm not in the camp that we are going to continue warming until infinity and beyond, so we'll see....just my hunch. I love people who claim that their "opinions" are 110% grounded in objectivity-bullshit. The evidence is, or should be, however, there is an inherent element of subjectivity to the conceptualization that we arrive at given the facts at hand. No one definitively knows what our climate will look like in 100 years, and those who claim that they do are full of shit....whether or not they have any insight into said cognitive fecal matter is another issue entirely.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I know...uncharted territory. I think that season has some surprises in store.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I'm going through all of that stuff now for my update...crazy.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    January could end up pretty warm if we build huge departures early on.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Last season featured my first positive seasonal snowfall anomaly since 2017-2018.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Oh, that is your site? Awesome job! My only critique is that it only has mean vp, and not vp anomalies.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Oh, pretty please...this would represent an interplanetary orgie for me. Don't get me wrong, I'm sure it will come with some unforeseen, dystopian (as John would say)externality, but we are getting those anyway with the hockey-stick rate of CC, so what the hell...may as well get some snow and cold on the way to meeting our collective maker.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'll take the over on "barely any snow" in Michigan this coming winter, but a +10 month would not shock me.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    2060? Damn, I'll be 80....lets speed that up-
×
×
  • Create New...