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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    https://peakbagger.com/List.aspx?lid=19322&cid=56096
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I haven't seen under 30" since 2011-2012.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm not talking about winning the relative to the mean trophy...it was my first season that wasn't 10" or more below average snowfall since 2017-2018. I'll take it and run.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    CANSIPS clearly has a Modoki look just viewing H5 next winter...don't have to look at SSTs. CFS has a more east-based look. My guess is it will look more like the CFS in the seasonal mean given how strong the event is going to be, but I could certainly see a stretch from latter January into February looking like the CANSIPS. I suspect we won't see a wall-to-wall furnace, although I'm sure Bluewave and the climate changer will be quoting tweets declaring it the warmest winter on record across the CONUS.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Definitely been a hot month out here...only recently shifted more temperate.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'll tell you, even if it's warm, I welcome a more active pattern with the El Nino...man, I am so sick of this drought the past few years. Even last winter was dry...there was only decent snow because it was so cold...precip was below average and there weren't many coastals.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    That data set seems to have a great deal of -PDO warm ENSO events, which may explain the curious QPF deficit. Super events were very dry over the interior, implying a coastal storm track...small sample size, I know.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I wouldn't completely dismiss this rather uncanny resemblance to last season, despite ENSO...one hallmark of CC that I have noticed is that these patterns tend to stagnate and become a theme over several seasons.....previously, we had the never-ending cold west/warm east +WPO look, but the north Pacific seems to have flipped starting with the the 2024-2025 season. It has remained rather dry, albeit colder, but ENSO is likely going to be the vehicle for change with respect to having precipitation pick up.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    I was just thinking that yesterday on a totally anecdotal level...the big heat this month hasn't seemed Nino like. Glad the empirical data jives with my hunch.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm sure someone is going to explain why it wouldn't be enjoyable and would entail certain economic collapse and death, but we are hammered with that over GW, anyway....so excuse me if I salvage bit of solace form the prospect of my final days being snow-filled.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    "It plays a crucial role in the climate system, helping regulate global weather patterns. Its collapse would have enormous implications, including much more extreme winters" On no, not that...
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    93 again...heatwave
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Interesting...and for some, unsettling-
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    93 today.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I will say, we are due for a break, so I would not at all be shocked if this one turned out okay...like 1982. Cold, no (at least not sustained)...but some good storms, yes.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    The only super El Nino that was decent here is 1982.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Lagging RONI was likely a reflection of the more meager Aleutian low, as we have discussed...but the huge ridge over the northeast was all ONI.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    92 here in the armpit of the MRV.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Was he really warm last winter? Any seasonal forecaster will bust badly from time to time if they are being honest. I've honed my El Niño intensity composites today and will give the EMI ones a quick check before my next update later this month.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Raindance has intimated that it's shifting, as well...must be at least getting close. I do agree that the PDO will take a few, perhaps several, years longer.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, there was a modicum of truth to it in that we had a historic blizzard, and then a few weeks later a record cold snap...issue is he sensationalized the shift and implied that it would be sustained. There was definitely a shift, though. The problem was the first half of the season we had the marine forcing competing with the +ENSO regime, so the result was a horrid pattern with ridging displaced eastward into the NE, which was different from December 1982 and 1997. December 2006 was kind of like December 2015 and I fear the coming December may be similar. I think it was Chuck that said it fits the billing for +QBO, but getting ahead of myself there...I'm won't touch the polar domain until like August.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    See, I would term that "what other hemispheric influences are competing to alter it and how".....ie, while some are accentuated, other features are blunted. That is the essence of a lagging RONI value...whereas MEI/ONI are more likely to just be universally weaker and thus more prone to polar influences.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's too reductive and narrow in scope...it's fine to use it for historical ranking as long you understand exactly what it is conveying and why...otherwise, this is akin to ranking each winter by NAO or PNA....sometimes it works, but often times it doesn't.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Largely a weenie fallacy that the collapse of ENSO will "save us"...DT likes to clinging to that crap and always ends up backtracking at the last moment.
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