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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think RONI ends up from like 1.7 to 2.0....just my early guess, but I'll have a better idea next month. ONI 2.2 TO 2.5??
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Definitely done better with that past few years.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I have a bias...it's human nature. If anything, I have overcompensated the past couple of years and it's probably at least in part why I didn't go as cold as my narrative implied last year when I clearly should have.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Stop interpreting this guidance in such absolute terms because it's just that .....GUIDANCE. No forecaster worth a damn should be ripping and reading it, but rather using it as a tool.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    If you actually look at the JMA model, it actually has the warmest pocket of water pretty near where the east-based composite has it, but it's extending the El Niño very far to the west so that it has more of a Modoki look. It's actually similar to 2023-2024 did, but the forcing is a bit east, so it's a Modoki El Niño forcing rather than MC. That to me is a bit harder to dismiss as "stock ENSO bias". Go and check out the June 2023 forecast and it looked different. the fact that the CANSIPS is doing the same thing adds to the intrigue. Now, do I think that the seasonal mean will look like that with an El Niño this strong? No, I don't...too much wamth too far east. But do I think that we can get a month to look like that in the back half of the season? You bet I do-
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's crazy how people are triggered by the mere mention of certain seasons as analogs....,most of us have been at this for like 20+ years, you would think at some point they would wrap their mind around how analogs are used. If you have noticed, any seasonal met worth a damn often uses an assortment of snowy, cold seasons AND warm seasons featuring a dearth of snowfall. Just because the forecasters deems a season to have enough value to warrant its' inclusion does NOT imply a replica season in its' entirety is being forecasted. The most glaring and detestable flaw I continue to see amongst weather circles is the inability to perceive any nuance, and constantly view everything as black and white. Social media isn't helping this issue, rather it's exacerbating it. The tweets that are engineered to draw attention to the 2009-2010 analog are the problem, but that clearly that isn't being done or implied here.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    The northeast doesn't need a cold winter for decent snowfall, but I agree that it won't be cold. 2010-2011 was actually one of the best seasons on record up here.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm not really using 1986-1987 per se, but like that overall progression......mild December prior to mid season shift colder.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Nice post, raindance. I'm not sold on a non-winter, either.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I have those, 1958-1959, 1968-1969 and 1977-1978 comprising my Modoki composite....but those are def. the most extreme members.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Makes sense since they aren't as powerful in general. It's semantics, anyway....I'm not trying to argue that winter is going to be cold because we have warmth in the western regions, but I do think that the risk of a winter closer to normal tempwise is heightened.....especially considering that the western warm pool may have edged eastward a bit.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Like I said, basin-wide is varied....could end up warmer than 1997 and I would not be surprised in the least.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    No idea.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Is it a huge deal? I don't think so, but it is what it is.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    THIS is strongly east-based: 11JUN1997 26.1 2.8 27.8 1.1 28.4 0.7 28.9 0.1 This: 10JUN2015 25.5 2.0 27.8 1.2 28.7 0.9 29.8 0.9 This: 07JUN2023 26.1 2.6 28.0 1.2 28.7 0.9 29.5 0.7 And THIS: 10JUN2026 26.1 2.7 28.3 1.6 29.2 1.5 30.1 1.3 Are basin-wide. Eastward leaning, sure....okay.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Seasonal forecasts definitely have their limitations, regardless of the specification.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes. I don't really care what the tweet brigade says, it's not severely east-based. Doesn't mean it can't be as warm as one, though.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Basin-Wide has a wide degree of variation...can end up with an east0based pattern, like 2023, or more Modoki like, per 1957 and 1965.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Just stating to dig into ENSO in depth now that we are beyond the spring barrier, and this isn't like 1997 per EMI....FWIW. Very similar to 2015. Stronger version of 2015. WWB looks to be hitting kind of a barrier in region 3 for now, so this looks to end to remain basin-wide...I am betting 1.2 has peaked for awhile....not saying much given how warm it is, I know.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's camped there from July-through September, too.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Copernicus seasonal mean seems to have a New Foundland cold pool in November.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    This what I meant this morning when I said we'd be walking a tight-rope...this season pull it off, though with a slight nude east of the warm pool. We are do for a good Nino...it's been over a decade.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    At some point, all of that warmth in region 4 is going to produce a Modoki season.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, well....we did just see a 2013-2014 type of pattern last year, so who knows.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    In the seasonal mean, sure....DJFM isn't averaging -NAO...not a huge leap of faith. But we just need one. month to average -NAO.
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