40/70 Benchmark

I am pretty confident that both la nina and the IOD are going fade relatively early on during the cold season.

I think we are going to see abundant signs over the course of this cold season that this particular cold ENSO event is "washed up", so to speak, so I wouldn't necessarily bank on text book la nina climo...especially later on in the season. The seeds of el nino have been planted long before it manifests onto SST anomaly charts.

I'm not sure why you view that as bad news...

The fact that we have been in a rather stagnant la nina state all year long makes it less likely that the IOD and ENSO are going to couple and mutually re-enforce one another to the same degree that they would if la nina had really began to blossom this summer and into the fall. I think this is part of the reason why a lot of guidance dissipates both events pretty quickly during boreal winter and think that makes the most sense, especially considering the self-destructive nature of ENSO in general. ENSO is an acronym for El Nino Southern OSCILLATION, which at baseline is exactly as the name implies, an oscillation back and forth. It is not meant to stagnate and there are certain atmospheric mechanisms in place to ensure that any said stagnation if fleeting. The resultant disconnect between the IOD and ENSO when the latter becomes stagnant is one of them, and the inherent dynamics of the Walker Cycle being the other prominent device that favors this oscillatory proclivity. A crude analogy is to consider this la nina akin to a post ERC hurricane on a smaller scale in that the window of time for it to exert its most profound influence on the ambient atmosphere has past. A stagnant hurricane is less equipped to rip a hole in the ozone just as a stagnant ENSO event is not as pervasive a hemispheric driver. Tropical systems and ENSO are both ultimately self destructive to a degree...remember that.

I haven't really got into analyzing the structure much yet....will be starting that this month, but 2000 appears to be a pretty good fit in terms of both being really far west-based.

The lower dews are for tomorrow.

Same page.

True, but its as close as we can get. Good luck finding an exact replica of an analog. And even if you did, the weather probably still would not evolve in exactly the same manner.

I don't agree with that. I don't see any reason to think that Canada will be completely void of cold, like it is in our worst seasons. Obviously that is of more value to folks further north, but that is how it could look worse. I also don't see la nina remaining very potent this winter, either, which is another way that it could look worse.

I can't connect to this.

Could be related to my last post, though the MEI is still raging....

Some conclusions can already be drawn about this la nina event from its relationship, or lack there of, with the Indian Ocean Dipole. Don't expect either to last particularly long this winter. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/08/using-indian-ocean-as-predictor-of-enso.html

I honestly think its a bit of both on each end....but again, all I was implying is that the worst of the summer is behind us and we are exiting solar max...that's it.

It never fails....February and August both always feature the first people discussing seasonal change, and its always met with butt-hurt resistance Its admittedly worse in winter....won't deny that.

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I understand your interpretation is different. We disagree. Touching 90 degrees again and having the season wane are not mutually exclusive to me, thus my statement is in fact congruent. I understand why it isn't through your lens.

Right...to me, it means the apex is behind us and we are exiting solar max...just like in mid February when we have toasty tushies in the car. I did say we will see 90 degrees again.

Yea, summer's back is thankfully broken. I'm sure that we haven't seen the last of the 90s, but the worst is behind us.

Probably from about your area points southward, but not necessarily here....as long as there is cold in Canada, which there should be, its unlikely to be an unmitigated disaster at this latitude, unless there was some incredible misfortune involved. Agree RE above normal temps...pretty tough to pull off a below average season this day due to the relatively mild nights.

Mixed bag for me....3 good, 3 suck.

They nailed the Stormy January last season.

Makes sense...figured that when I got home.

Look at TCHP.

Oh, man...sucks.