40/70 Benchmark

EPS OTS

EURO AI ENS are a fringe like the OP.

Yea, I wasn't claiming the storm will miss just because the GEFS and EURO AI didn't nail us, rather I was just clarifying that they didn't in fact nail us this run. I don't think we'll get crushed, but that isn't why.

It's still important to provide an accurate portrayal of the data.

6-12" for the outer cape and islands....not a region-wide HECS....big difference. Hence...."fringer".

Well want a storm, but let's keep it real.

This is your idea of the GEFS being "on board?

Brushes the outer cape and islands

Like I said, mainly OTS...fringer.

GEFS is similar to EURO AI....OTS.

EURO AI is a real bomb, but mainly OTS....fringer. I would favor that gun-to-head. Obviously ENS is the way to go right now practically speaking.

1041/969 PG.....that would bring some wind.

Geez....GFSAI is 969 in the GOM

I had the best KU window of the season March 1-15, so who knows, maybe I was off by a week.

Kind of reminds me of Juno a bit as depicted.

Fantasy fatigue.

Yea, def. worth tracking. I hope I'm wrong.

It actually looks more off board to me. I don't doubt it will form....but it looks like OTS is most likely to me....another near-miss/fringe that will bomb the Maritimes.

Yea, I'd take that storm in the first round of the fantasy draft...

Pike points north.

More Active Week Ahead Return of Pacific Trough Regime Implies Mixed Events Mid January Redux Pattern Reprieve The Eastern Mass Weather winter outlook from early last November posited that the milder Pacific trough regime would become prevalent during times of pattern relaxation. The first interval of this pattern presented as forecast, during the middle third of the month of January Another pattern relaxation of this ilk is also slated to return this week, during the middle portion of February. However, the trade-off for the milder temperatures will be a more active weather pattern in terms of bouts of precipitation. Milder & More Active Pattern Ensues For Latter Half Of February The implication for southern New England is likely to be a serious of attenuating waves that will be accompanied by light-to-moderate mixed precipitation throughout the region. The first such system is likely overnight Wednesday into early Thursday. The primary threat for a light snowfall is north of the Massachusetts turnpike. Then a follow up system Friday night into Saturday, which may be more focused on Connecticut. The largest storm potential exists in association with a potential coastal development on Monday, February 23, however, the early indication is that this system is likely to pass predominately out to sea and pose a larger threat to the Canadien Maritimes. More updates throughout the week as needed, including the potential Tuesday issuance of a forecast for the Wednesday system.

Looks like a milder, albeit more active pattern is on tap for the coming weak. Two weaker systems with mixed precipitation likely overnight Wednesday and Friday. The first focused north of the Mass pike for a light snowfall, and the second maybe a bit further south, but quite a ways out. Initial hedge is mainly out-to-sea for a larger storm potential in about a week. Will have a closer look at Wednesday on Tuesday if necessary. This will not be a big deal. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/02/more-active-week-ahead.html

That may not be as big of an issue in February.

Yea, I wasn't trying to assuage any angst by making that comparison Just pointing it out. I made the mistake of including seasons in the January composite, like 2001-2002, because of that expected PT regime mid month.....but as it turned out, the cold dwarfed it so much it was a mistake. That is why I busted too warm. I feel like diagnosing the pattern is easier than the making the temp composite maps.