40/70 Benchmark

Agree.

I would take my chances with a season either like 2022-2023 with less extreme west coast troughing, or last year with a -PNA.

I doubt it would be as dry and suppressed as last season, though with a -PNA....I think Chuck just meant similar to last year in terms of temps going against the decadal grain and not being prohibitively warm.

I'm in the 50's and cloudy today...great yard work weather.

I think it snip my scrotum and use it to tie a noose to hang myself with.

One more week until fannies begin to take a bit longer to heat up when straddling car seats.

Well, there is always going to be some level of BABIP luck involved...you can't eliminate that. However, harder hit balls of a higher BABIP....ie greater chance of being a hit.

Maybe, there were some inside runners, too.

It was a dry winter in general, but it was wasn't dry over the lakes as it was along the east coast.

Great baseball analogy, a sport in which analytics has become an increasingly large component of the game....analystics would argue that this will eventually regress to the mean. Our batting average was well above our expected batting average last decade and this decade that is reversing, hence the regression. Now, I understand the valid arguments that this is more than simple regression and while that may be true, it is gong to take some time to know for certain. Each of those 4 season were -WPO, except for 2017-2018, which was carried by the huge March and epic NAO blocking....again, no argument from me that the +WPO attributabed PAC jet is a problem right now.

I think its also important to note that were in an incredibly extreme -PDO regime for a few years and will take time to reverse that....I am sure there will be some initial resistance, but the PDO has come up to coincide with those initial hints of change last season. The baseline assumption regarding these cycles and circulations is preedicated on what has happened in the past....while we can make suggestions as to how that may be changing, it will take time to prove that one way or another.

I'm sure there have been failed attempts in the past, too...I don't care to sort through dailies for 4 hours, but if you do, then be my guest. Bottom line is that it didn't actually shift, nor is it expected to do so for several more years. Off the top of my head, though I'm sure you will examine the dailies and find some inconsistency...but February 2000 featured an uncharacteristically +PNA during a La Nina, and then of course we had the 2000-2001 season that must have had everyone convinced that the Pacific had flipped....yet 2001-2002 happened. Bottom line is we need to see where we are in the early 2030s.

It also took several years for the PDO to shift follwing the strong EL Nino of 1972-1973, so that make sense.

Never heard of that... Even if we did warm ENSO at all for next winter, it would make no sense to incorporate warm ENSO analogs for this summer and fall.

I think that and the PDO will flip around the turn of the decade....I know Chris disagrees, but we will know within a few years. My guess is the debate will never end...certain folks will find a way to dovetail what ever happens into their own conceptualization of CC.

May be that will be the -AMO in this new climate we are in....never know....

Great back-loaded winter in 2012-2013, but I'm sure that its an impossible feat in the new, warmer climate.

No, I agree with you. I was just being an ass, but truth be told, tell me that this...... isn't this in longer and more detailed verbiage....

"Diminishing trades used to be a sign that La Nina was relenting, but in this new, warmer climate, we will end up seeing cool ENSO, anyway".

We figured....

Oh man... Are you going to be back up this way at all?

Hopefully he did because it will be less faux severe posts to wade through this afternoon.

Group discount?

As long its weak, that isn't a big deal.

There was a system in between the January snowstorm and the February blizzard of 1978 that was suppose dto be snow and ended up being rain.