40/70 Benchmark

I don't think the first half of January will be colder than the second half.

I agree that is a big miss on that central area, but I still sent B- bc the rest of the forecast was essentially perfect...but yea, I had pause. I am usually a pretty tough grader, but threw myself about bit of a bone there...many outlets were also too robust in the max area, too...hell, NWS went 8-12". I was torn between B- and C+, so that is reasonable.

Even Tippy's 582DM Miami rule is met there, but easy to do at hr 222.

No, not him...but he likes January, too. I don't speak with Dave much via DM.

Friday-Night Saturday AM Snows Verification Strong Overall Forecast With One Major Exception Failed Hedge Against Data For Best Banding The vast majority of the forecast was very accurate, as can be seen by the juxtaposition of maps below. However, the one glaring fault with the map is unfortunately where it mattered most, which is respect to the all-important best banding. As it turned out, the 6-10" "bonanza area" should have been placed approximately 50-60 miles to the southwest, over the southwestern half of Connecticut, as the consensus of guidance had emphatically signaled. The rest of the forecast was perfect with the exception of the north shore of Massachusetts, where the ocean enhancement did not come to fruition, so 1-3" would have sufficed as opposed to the chosen 2-5" range. But this issue pales in comparison to the aforementioned discrepancy with respect to the erroneous placement of that extremely heavy band that contained snowfall rates of up to 3-4" for a short period of time. Overemphasis Placed on 700MB Warm Front The main forecast premise in Eastern Mass Weather's Final Call yesterday was that guidance was not emphasizing the placement of the 700mb warm front enough as it pertained to where the band of exotically heavy snowfall would materialize. This was obviously crucial since this band ultimately led to major accidents despite a lower holiday volume of traffic. The forecast rationale was that the band would focus where the 700mb warm front stagnated, which was over the upper Connecticut river valley of Massachusetts, much of Worcester county and into the hills of extreme northeastern Connecticut and northwestern Rhode Island. However, the reason that guidance was not targeting this area where the mid level front stagnated, as it would under conventional synoptic circumstances ,is that the dynamics of the system were eroding and being displaced southeast at that point due to the resistance it was met with by the confluent flow to the northeast. This is an issue that the forecast took into account and contemplated when considering the disparity between the ominous forecast soundings over western Connecticut and, the tamer scenario being depicted over Worcester in central Massachusetts. However, Eastern Mass Weather incorrectly took a leap of faith that guidance was eroding the dynamics too quickly, which was the ongoing trend. This would have allowed central Massachusetts to better avail of the stagnating midlevel warm front to endure a protracted period of enhanced snowfall rates, but ultimately these rates occurred instead further to the south, over Connecticut, as the consensus of guidance had been indicating. Final Grade: B-

Great forecast for last night and early this AM, with the notable exception that I missed on the placement of the heaviest band, so amounts were oversold in central Mass, where 2-5" fell instead of the 6-10" forecast fell where models had in CT. Final Grade: B- https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/12/friday-night-saturday-am-snows.html

I mentioned on the forum that an online friend of mine has been targeting the Jan 8-12 period for a month or so...

I let this last one roll off of my chest....I was so appreciative of that Xmas bone and knew I was in a bad spot for this. Hopefully snowy January en route.

Anyway, we should all have ample chances the rest of the season if it works out how I envision.

I know I'm not Dave or ineedsnow, who jack in half of the storms...or even scooter, who frequently jacks in cold coastals...conditions have to be perfect for this area to JP....I just mean start getting consistent, representative snows...that's all. Just near 60" in a season, while n ORH county gets high 70s. Not a huge ask....I don't think...

Right....because the rosy wave train has had a huge ridge over the midwest...if that were over Montana or Idaho, which it never is anymore, we'd be getting rocked.

Of course it's luck....people keep suggesting I live in a bad spot.....for frequent jacks, yes....but bottom line is I average over 60" and haven't received close to that in 8 years.

My gut tells me I wish we'd lose the NAO. Largest event on the season is 3"....only reason I'm not tits up already is it came right before xmas.

Man, if the next big storm whiffs, I am going to absolutely lose it...lo and behold, I am one of the few spots that managed a below average snowfall December with 8". North, west, south and east/northeast...porked in every direction. This is why I'm not thrilled with the +PNA/-NAO combo.

Still expect another major Strat disruption and split in Feb.

Gonna do a December wrap/January preview post soon...bottom line is the latter December/early Jan Pacific trough regime/strenthening PV verified, but the warm up has been abbreviated since the Strat has remained uncoupled from the troposphere....so we have maintained NAO blocking. +PNA remains the theme of January...that has not changed since the fall, but it may end up having more neg NAO than the +TNH expectation given the Strat/troposphere uncoupling.

He's had a rough year.

No. It was like 3-6" there. I placed too much emphasis in the H7 warm front and not enough on the best dynamics staying south.

1.25" Final

1/2" of sand...about as expected. Nice, wintry night. Congrats, CT.

Finally spitting here.

Low of 9, high of 19.

Still mainly above average for the most part.

Book it-

I expect a lot of more Strat help late this year than 2011.