40/70 Benchmark

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/12/significant-snows-likely-on-horizon-mid.html

Significant Snows Likely On Horizon Mid-Month Multi-ensemble, Teleconnection & Analog Consensus Guidance Flagging Mid-Month For Winter Storm Threat Although much of Eastern Mass largely missed out on last week's snowfall, there is an emergent signal out around mid-month, or more specifically, Saturday the 13th. While specifics are still several days from coming into focus, all three major ensemble suites are signaling some sort of potential. The general layout of the pattern is consistent amongst all three camps, with an amplifying trough along the east coast, some sort of a ridge over the western CONUS, cold rolling over a stout -WPO ridge. and a -NAO acting to slow the flow down slightly and lock the antecedent cold into place. Obviously this does not guarantee a major winter storm, never mind one that will focus its' wrath on the forecast area, but this threat period does have support on a larger hemispheric, and seasonal scale. Telconnector Convergence & Analogs Affirm Modeled Threat Period There exists a major misconceptualization among laymen, and even weather circles alike, that it is specific index modes that favor heightened risks of storminess, ie -WPO, EPO or AO, but it is actually the modularity, or movement, of these atmospheric teleconnections that trigger storminess, rather than any specific mode itself. This is due to the fact that the shifting of major teleconnections represents mass flux within the hemisphere, which engenders an elevated risk of storminess owed to colliding air masses and shifting pressure patterns. This is what is signaled to at least some degree in the upper latitudes late next week. Note that the East Pacific, West Pacific and Arctic oscillations are all in descent, with each reaching a nadir in the vicinity of December 13th, which represents a fairly significant storm signal. This also coincides with the time frame during the second week of December that was identified in the Winter Outlook as the favored window of time for the first significant snowfall of the season for much of the forecast area. The mid-December timeframe is also consistent with the majority of the December analogs, as 4/7 seasons (2017, 2008, 2007, 1970) featured the first widespread significant snowfall for Eastern Mass during either the second of third week of December. Stay tuned for updates throughout the week-

I won't event look at an OP until like Tuesday.

I don't need to look at guidance....just posters. I know what is going on by who reacts, and how.

Knowing him, he meant "won't look at 00z", because it probably sucked.

I keyed in on the second week in my work, but third is possible.

Hell, I didn't use 1995...but first warning event in my hood that month was 12/14. 12/9 fell a bit short.

2005...Dec 9th. 2017....Dec 10th. 1970...12/17. 2000.....Dec 30 I had 7 December analogs, and only one had a major event week 1...1981. 2021 had none, and 2000 was 12/30. The other 4 were all either week 2 or 3. It's not blind-weenie faith, as I have posted a great deal of research.

Right on schedule....first major event December 2007.....12/13. December 2008.....12/19. Keep the faith-

Next week should have a decent event.

Heights still a bit compreassed there....probably why is struggles to coalesce.

Enjoy phase 8...the gift that keeps on giving.

I've always felt the window for big dogs would be late.

Extend that north...I took another dong in the rear, too.

This is what I meant. I expected a normal to slightly above normal snowfall season with a pretty active December. If we make to mid month with hardly anything in the bank of imminent, then we will need a big fish at some point.

He'll respond "Thanks, friends".

I'd be passing gas the whole time, so no one would eat me...like a skunk that sprays when intimidated....

I may send Kevin a Christmas card with this image on the front.

I was operating from my own conceptualization of how I expected the month to go, but yea....you probably extend it realistically speaking, but I can tell you no one wants to be a mid month with nothing on the ground or imminent.

Yes, and I have also grown more open to the idea some of the increased tendency towards a cool ENSO paradigm and associated MC forcing may be related to CC, but what I do know is that our current snow deficit is not 100% attributable to GW/CC.

Yea, not denying GW....but there are other factors independent of the warming that are conspiring against us.

I don't think it's 100% due to CC...just leave it at that.

I would have been blacked out the whole time.

Snowcover isn't declining as quickly as that implies. The past decade has been an awful stretch in general.....look at a snowcover graph from 1988-1992 and it's probably just about as bad.