40/70 Benchmark

Right...you want the max rate of mid level keeping to coincide with their passage just beneath your latitude....tougher to pull off with with respect to track, and timing of the evolution of the cyclone's life cycle in Miller A.

If you want a great outcome, the mid level lows are below us in Miller, B, too.

IMO, "hybrid" is Miller B. SWFE on roids has to be Miller A designation......the influx of moisture is from the south without any real northern energy. PD II was kind of like that, though it had a bit more of a surface reflection.

Now look at that list and tell the ones that would most like to relive and I bet they are Miller B.

Conisder this list: According to National Weather Service data compiled by the Boston Globe and Boston.com, here are the top ten largest recorded snowstorms in Boston history: February 17–18, 2003 – 27.6 inches: MILLER A (But I have always been VERY skeptical of that total) February 6–7, 1978 (Blizzard of '78) – 27.1 inches: MILLER B February 24–26, 1969 – 26.3 inches: MILLER B January 22–24, 2005 – 25.4 inches: MILLER B February 8–9, 2013 – 25.4 inches: MILLER B March 31–April 1, 1997 (April Fool's Day storm) – 25.3 inches: MILLER B January 26–28, 2015 – 24.9 inches: MILLER B January 25–26, 2026 (Winter Storm Fern) – 23.2 inches: MILLER A January 20–22, 1978 – 23.1 inches: MILLER A February 8–11, 1994 – 21.7 inches [1, 2, 3, 4] (OES ENHANCED) I count 3 of the top ten that are clear Miller A events.

Miller A Million ways to pork me

Given our longitude, I'd much rather take my chances with "later" development...not close. The ceiling us also lower on Miller A because they are usually more progressive.

Another possibility I am toying with is having more of a supply of cold readily available to the CONUS relative to the east-based intense Nino composite AND having the STJ displaced N & W relative to said composite...which could be great for us, especially across the interior.

I'm a bit torn on how the disconnect between the PDO and ENSO may go.....I see some indicate that it could force a colder outcome in the east, but that definitely didn't work out in 2023. I see how it could weaken the GOA low, thus reducing the proclivity for +EPO/strong Pac jet, but I also see that adding an element of destructive interference via elevated se heights....I tend to place greater emphasis on the latter, but perhaps we are especially prone to severe bouts of winter when said SE heights relative to expectation relax.

I was actually going to add a mid atl reference, too. haha The majority down there are great posters, but there are a select few that just make you want to make use of the idle snowblower and lie yourself down on the drive way.

Right...and that wasn't directed at you.....I know you are well aware of the perils of dismissing potential over shorter-term intervals out of deference to a longer-term mean.

All I ask is that people keep an open-mind....the need for preemptive defensive posturing is every bit as prominent on this board as any bias born of lust for the D-drip.

I don't think that is the issue...usually the blame arrow points towards the party speaking in absolutes, which is the "no winter" crowd...if you see anyone supremely confident in a great winter, please point them out to me. On the other hand, I see plenty hell-bent on a non-season, which is silly even just considering the intensity of ENSO overlaid onto CC....that position inherently demonstrates a lack of understanding as to the complexity of the implications of CC. As an example....CC has tended to attenuate the influence of ENSO, which we are still seeing to an extent, and has increased intra-season variability. Additionally, the poles are warming faster, which leaves us prone to shorter-term bouts of extreme blocking patters, which always bares watching given the magnitude of the STJ that is anticipated. Obviously hand we are dealt is heavily weighted toward warmth IN THE MEAN, but in no way precludes all hell breaking lose over shorter intervals of time for the reasons discussed.

He loves doing that to people so I couldn't resist.

I highly doubt we see a +AO winter.

Show me on the doll where mother nature hurt you....

It's pre-emptive defensive posturing from all of the people who have been mortally wounded by mother nature.

Primshineweather.com?

I feel like the trend on seasonal guidance is at least as, if not more important than the absolute data and CANSIPS keeps trending warmer and further south with that ridge...this is why February is now no longer above average precip for us, but if you look back at the 9/1 and especially 8/1 run, precip was way above average.

CANSIPS is unquestionably too cold.

Trend of the CANSIPS is as I expected...its strengthening that ridge and edging it further southward. For instance, it's trying to do this for December. But I think we end up with something like this:

I don't love the look of the CANSIPS in February....that looks rather suppressed at peak climo.

4.65" on the month.

That looks best in December and gets progressively worse.