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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Was he really warm last winter? Any seasonal forecaster will bust badly from time to time if they are being honest. I've honed my El Niño intensity composites today and will give the EMI ones a quick check before my next update later this month.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Raindance has intimated that it's shifting, as well...must be at least getting close. I do agree that the PDO will take a few, perhaps several, years longer.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, there was a modicum of truth to it in that we had a historic blizzard, and then a few weeks later a record cold snap...issue is he sensationalized the shift and implied that it would be sustained. There was definitely a shift, though. The problem was the first half of the season we had the marine forcing competing with the +ENSO regime, so the result was a horrid pattern with ridging displaced eastward into the NE, which was different from December 1982 and 1997. December 2006 was kind of like December 2015 and I fear the coming December may be similar. I think it was Chuck that said it fits the billing for +QBO, but getting ahead of myself there...I'm won't touch the polar domain until like August.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    See, I would term that "what other hemispheric influences are competing to alter it and how".....ie, while some are accentuated, other features are blunted. That is the essence of a lagging RONI value...whereas MEI/ONI are more likely to just be universally weaker and thus more prone to polar influences.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's too reductive and narrow in scope...it's fine to use it for historical ranking as long you understand exactly what it is conveying and why...otherwise, this is akin to ranking each winter by NAO or PNA....sometimes it works, but often times it doesn't.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Largely a weenie fallacy that the collapse of ENSO will "save us"...DT likes to clinging to that crap and always ends up backtracking at the last moment.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    In the traditional sense per ONI, but we have had some pretty robust cool ENSO seasonal signatures.......these RONI lags are a signature of the warming west Pacific, which constructively interferes with cool ENSO and negatively interferes with warm ENSO expression around the hemisphere...more specifically, while the ridge over North America is accentuated, the GOA low is blunted. It's this inconsistency that tends to mask the warm ENSO expression, while the traditional ONI fails to adequately capture the magnitude of the cool ENSO expression via the enhanced Aleutian ridge.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, RONI measures the associated mid latitude response relative to what is expected per ENSO climo....ie while one aspect of el Nino (Canadian ridge) may be well expressed, another be less so (Aleutian low), thus the RONI will still lag the ONI. Again, not to be redundant, but it is our innate proclivity as humans to be too binary with these concepts in our thought process.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I have come to learn that RONI really isn't a great indicator of strength, but rather a measure of the degree to which other hemispheric forces (usually CC induced during the modern era) are competing with ENSO. Ultimately, the answer as to whether the ONI or RONI is of greater utility is more nuanced than the majority of those among weather circles perceive it as being, which is often the case. In reality they both seem to have some value.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, that's how I feel. I don't see it showing up in the seasonal mean like the CANSIPS implies, but probably periods of it, especially in the 2nd half.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I feel like we could see some patterns set up that resemble the CANSIPS output..maybe even the entire month of January or February, but not the seasonal mean.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, it's going to be warm in the mean. The question is will we have some respites from the jet...my early hunch is that we will.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I don't even think it's worth sweating those details....usually when it gets this powerful, it's safe to just concede warmth on par with an east-based event. But there are other factors that could foster the development of a favorable stretch(es), especially later in the season.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    My El Niño intensity composites are pretty similar to his...few differences....notably, I consider 1972 as merely strong and 2009 as moderate.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    JMA site is awesome, but my primary complaint about it is the inability to run composites.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's like your teaming having a lead in the top of the 2nd inning.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Gonna touch upon this in my June blog in a few weeks....I feel like it's better to focus more on factors like this since it's pretty obvious where we are headed intensity wise, which makes the modoki value pretty moot.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Jives with my early thoughts of a very warm December for the NE on par with 2006, 2015 and 2023...essentially a super/east-based composite. Looks like an early +WPO that maybe flips later in the season.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Do you really like cold and snow? Sometimes I feel like your screenname is a sadistic manifestation of deep-seeded self-loathing.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think the CANSIPS did best last winter, granted non of the models accurately incorporate the magnitude of CC attributed ridge expansion. Just saying...not meant to imply it necessarily will again.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    As an anecdotal note, I think the run of "bad luck" for the east coast has come to an end and feel like we are starting to more efficiently cash in for a while. Just a hunch.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'll bet if we did 1997 over again, it would work out somewhat better for my area.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    I agree that it could have turned out better than it did with a little luck, but I would take 1982 12x over 1997. Dec 1997 had a great storm here just before Xmas, which was the one good event that entire wretched season.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think it's important to not get too cute with the EMI when ENSO gets this strong because all of them are going to be "basin wide" in the sense that the anomalies will encompass the entirety of the ENSO area. Good luck getting 2.5C in the east or west, and having 0C on the other end. This is why I'm not really focused too much on EMI.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Another nod towards 1997.
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