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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. I mentioned last night, we don't know where the banding will set up yet....we think we know by looking at QPF charts, but we don't. March 2018 constantly had the big QPF near KPYM and I was near the gradient....31.5" later..... If it keeps trending worse, okay issue...but this looks like wobbles to me...like John said, we've just maxed out on how far N this can get.
  2. I agree...I'm stepping back from models a bit bc I'll only drive myself, and everyone else, nuts over whether I'm getting 12 or 24".
  3. Often guidance never really catches up to the later maturation.
  4. I had you 5-10" and KCON right near the line of 5-10"/10-15".
  5. I hear you....always leery when all of the jeering is coming from guys well south of you...you do't know whether to laugh or cry-
  6. Doesn't look like much of a trend at all at my latitude...
  7. Give me graphic to denote this..."firehose" usually implies ample moisture given deep fetch off of the Atlantic. Not trying to debate so much as make sure I understand...
  8. It usually aligns with that...it's a crude approximation. IDK how many times I see these QPF charts with that sharp gradients, and the best mid level banding ends up right where the QPF gradient is.
  9. I porked us with like 11-12", while it was an all-timer 15 miles se...even west of us in ORH got well over a foot...subby city here.
  10. I don't see how there isn't insane fronto near that northern and western gradient...
  11. GFS is a bit more aggressive with amounts, but the gradient is pretty similar....they aren't night and day...
  12. I wonder if we are seeing one of this on hour/off hour pattern of fluctuations again....00z/12z are more tempered, and 6z.18z more impressive.
  13. It's easier to not have "nerves" when you don't put yourself out there with a map. I'm not trying to sound like an ass, but if you bother to put a lot of time into something like this, it' either 1) You depend on it for your livelihood ...and/or 2" Are extremely passionate about it and want to hone and display your understanding by putting forth a quality map.
  14. I did not think this was getting up here, which is seemingly a good omen for us this year...I did it with the January biggie, too....my maps have been on point, though, once I get a clue.
  15. "Therrreees the Demon"...I definitely invoked Bruce's spirit last night.
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