40/70 Benchmark

MJO is amplifying in phase 6...also part of the reason why I have always hated this threat period. How many big storms do we get in phase 6? Better shot once it hits 7 after the 20th.

Yea, GEFS blow, too.

That 00z GFS solution is my 2nd most preferred outcome, with the most preferred being a major storm, of course.

What it comes down to is we just need to vanquish this persistent cool ENSO paradigm once and for all...I know some don't feel it's is a factor, but I don't mean ENSO itself....I mean the entire Pacific arena has been in cool ENSO mode for about 8 years. This is why the MJO always seems to skip over phase 8....even the past 1.5 seasons that have been decently cold, where are the big east coast storms?? The tropical forcing has still constantly deconstructively interfered with major east coast cyclogenesis for the most part. That strong El Niño a couple of years back was still left to compete with that residual cool ENSO forcing, which is why it sucked so badly. Even when MJO is in the COD...all that means is defaults to the baseline forcing...which is...take a guess. This is why I don't get people like DT who blow loads over La Niña weakening...it's like having your entire house burning to the ground and breathing a sigh of relief after dumping a bucket of water over the front stairs. His understanding of ENSO is so piss-poor...very reductive in nature.

Difference is that ended well....

Not this run...mother nature manages to queef at juuuuust the right angle to smother any modicum of dynamics for the whole weekend.

Best part is I can see it from my doorstep as it passes south of me...thankfully. DO NOT WANT.

I still doubt that happens....I bet we get a decent snowfall from the follow up...been my hedge all along.

Seriously, though....still should wait for the ensembles to really confirm.

So it's cirrus instead of 3"...still wasn't going to be a big deal.

Well, so much for seeder-feeder, then....weeder-whacker it is.

Maybe get some seeder-feeder bands going once scooter's tears hit the ocean

IDK...look how deep H5 is...all that matters, or so I was told....

They should be safe from Tip's ever-expanding Hadley Cell for another 100 years or so up there...lol

Not as much as it would otherwise if the ridge doesn't cooperate. Still nuisance amounts.

I don't agree. Keep the ridge tilted positively like that and the surface will underperform. This is why the dynamics and BZ are escaping east on those solutions.

@Ginx snewxGive me a ridge like the first and 3rd image, then H5 matters....second image is when it's more futile.

Not a bad analog, but that harkens back to what I was saying about the western ridge....notice it looks more like the 18z GFS suite than it does some of those other runs that are positively tilted sw to ne. This is what I hate...see the difference? Notice 18z GEFS look more like 2/15/15 than this last image.

Then the next one will be too far west...shoot me.

Is the mean better?

Better orientation of the ridge out west changes that IMHO.

Wow, that is the first run I've seen that has pretty much lost that annoying positive-tilt sw to be orientation of the PNA ridge...can work with that if it's real. Previously that wasn't rectified until the follow up wave.

Yea, me too.

I'm just needling there....18z actually looked respectable.

Inverted trough.....wow, awesome.