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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    The leak eastward of CANSIPS continued this month...that trend above was last month.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Here is what I was getting at earlier RE CANSIPS...excerpt from my blog: Guidance is unanimous on notion that El Niño should begin to become more evenly distributed once again as the WWBs finally begin to weaken this fall, but they disagree on just how quickly and to what extent that will occur. The CANSIPS seems too aggressive in weakening the WWBs significantly by October, and the CFS evolution of shifting the event severely towards Modoki before an abrupt reversal to east-based is considered bizarre and thus disregarded. The JMA also seems far too aggressive in increasing the EMI to approximately .7 to .8, likely due to an early and exaggerated WWB retreat. Note that the June forecast already had the EMI crossing into the Modoki side of neutral for July and August, which has not happened. The CANSIPS has been making similar shifts eastward of the El Niño, as the trend from June to August for the peak OND period is clear. The European solution seems most reasonable, with a slow subsiding of the WWBs and accompanying neutralization of the EMI in late October, before a slight resurgence of WWBs and retreat eastward of the El Niño this winter. Here are the three distinct EMI scenarios. The ECMWF evolution of the El Niño EMI essentially neutralizing for winter is favored, which would ultimately render the El Niño as basin-wide.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    It was both.......the first half was bad luck, the second half sucked. Early season was decent owed to the low-scending solar, east QBO combo....but it turned ugly later.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    It was essentially neutral...very positive first half and negative 2nd half. The index calculations don't always match the composite, as was the case last year....it appeared to be a very deeply -WPO but it wasn't due to placement of the ridge.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    97-98 turned out awfully, but it left a good bit on the table....it was actually dealt a pretty favorable hand from a polar perspective, which we don't have this year.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    1983 is also the only super El Nino with a somewhat negative WPO.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'll take the over on snowfall relative to 1997.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    1983 was also very east-based, and to be frank, it's a better polar analog given the QBO and solar cycle. 2016 was actually much warmer given the MC influence, it just happened to have the one storm.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's not handling the Pacific well at all.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Is he still waiting for his canonical, front-loaded La Nina from last year?
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    CANSIPS def. has that Canadian ridge too far NW....I'm sure of it. Most of my composites have it just NNW of the lakes.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Absolute same page.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    August Run: September Run:
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Odd...CANSIPS corrected the El Nino east again, but pattern actually trended a bit better. Maybe a sign of what I was saying about Modoki value not being a big deal when you have this much warmth throughout the basin, or the model is just OTL
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I haven't thought too much about temp departures numbers yet, but yea...maybe even a bit colder. I could see it being like +3 up here. A lot will depend on whether we get that one exotically warm month on the front end, which is very possible.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm confident that it's too cold.....these seasonal models can be in error right up until verification, as we have seen. That being said, I don't expect an awful snowfall season for the east coast.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would be careful with the CANSIPS...it's still evolving this El Nino too much towards the Modoki end of the spectrum. It's in error in that respect. Raindance just pointed that out, as did I in my blog last week.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    No surprise with an El Nino this powerful...no way it's going to be a -EPO in the seasonal mean.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    I been noticing that, too, which isn't a shock since we all know that the Modoki look that it and the JMA have been selling is overcooked.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    If it were ever going to happen, this is the year.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    I love how every few days he takes to social media and declares Iran dead, yet the war carries on and prices stay up. I should have went on X yesterday and told everyone that the Sox kicked ass in the Bronx and have clinched the division.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    New run of the seasonals should be out soon....I expect them to back off of the -NAO and go warmer early on.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Should be 40s with his elevation
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