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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think the mid season warming may end up more of a reflection event/CW.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    The new Adam is such a breath of fresh air...I wish Forky would take a break for a couple of months.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    You managed to inadvertently elicit one last sneak preview of my favorable window this winter before I go radio-silent to work.....WATCH THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE KUROSHIO CURRENT AND KONA LOW OUT IN THE PACIFIC CONTINUE TO GROW
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    More like Greg Oden up here.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    This.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    https://www.easternmassweather.net/2026/10/el-nino-grows-historically-powerful.html
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    https://www.easternmassweather.net/2026/10/el-nino-grows-historically-powerful.html
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would argue the guys speaking in absolutes that there won't be are crazy.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Finally...
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Fact, not opinion....1972-1973 and 2015-2016 are the only two intense El Ninos that did not feature at least one storm of over a foot in this area...and I'd take my chances with January 2016 again.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Hey, I'm not picky...I'll settle for January-February 1983, December 23, 1997 or January 7th, 2024...TBH the 2016 blizzard is the redux I'd pass on.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    That's the thing...only need 24 hours-
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    ENSO isn't alone in that respect...watch the impact of that gradient between the boiling Kuroshio current and the Kona low west Hawaii and how it may impact the north Pacific along about mid season, which may constructively interfere with other high latitude blocking downstream over NA.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Thankfully not pretty similar in NE!
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right...because it had very similar deviations to the ones I expect with this one.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is the strongest El Nino ever partly because we have the warmest oceans ever, which means we have more prominent competing forces than ever.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, given how east-based this one is, I think you would want some deviation....
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, true....I think most consider that a tacit point given the audience we are dealing with, but noted, nonetheless.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    On average over the course of a season, probably, but you are never going to entirely eliminate any degree of seasonal variation as a byproduct of alternate forcing mechanisms...especially in this modern era of being surrounded by heat sinks.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    If NYC doesn't get more snowfall during the coming season than they did in 1997-1998, then I'll hand my site over to @MJO812and dissapear.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    You missed my point...I was referencing amounts relative to average. I understand my climo...I wasn't assessing the possibility of being "shutout"...
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    My expectations are low, but not that low..I'll take the over on both of those seasons for snowfall at my locale..especially 2023...1997 will be close. There are pretty clear differences that have been discussed which should cause this season to behave differently than those ones later in the season. That said, early season will probably be worse. I expect a quick recovery after that block...
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    A lot of us have been in the main ENSO thread.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right, I'm not saying it's the "golden ticket" for winter, but it certainly doesn't hurt...this also ties into what I am talking about in the northern Pacific later in the season. Not to mention that this particular block in unprecedentedly strong as modeled.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Absolutely...QBO is somewhat different, but solar cycle is night-and-day.
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