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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    You can never get a 500mb forecast composite to look perfect, though....especially considering CC because you have to use analog years to construct them.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    I went with a preliminary .35 to .65 for DJFM mean PNA, and -.02 to .27 PDO. I feel comfortable with that.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    @Stormchaserchuck1I understand how the low the heights are in the N Pacific and into the SE CONUS on that comppsite...this is just preliminary. I'll probably make an adjustment to the final composite to address that, especially if El Niño continues to struggle to couple throughout the mid latitudes of the N Hem well into the fall...like subtracting a very early climo period rather than 1951-2020.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm just being a d1ck. What other factors do you feel are influencing it?
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Pretty good consensus between my composites.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Early work on the Extra tropical Pacific is done. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/08/preliminary-assessment-of-extratropical.html
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Pretty good consensus between my composites.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Early work on the Extra tropical Pacific is done. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/08/preliminary-assessment-of-extratropical.html
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yup, and I do think it will get more redolent of El Niño in the mid latitudes throughout the n hemisphere.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I haven't been having an issue.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is why the pattern in the mid latitudes hasn't been more redolent of El Nino this summer. El Niño in the tropics, of course: Mid latitudes, not so much.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I wonder if this has to do with climate change? That is, if the climate were actually changing....
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Every other week for me, but may miss this week.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think it's significant in the absolute sense in that a scenario where the ONI is higher is indicative of a different Pacific landscape than if the RONI were higher, however, I agree regarding the data source variation....it's likely just data set differences.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Your research on these patterns is a life-saver in terms of time trying to do these blogs with 4 little kids. haha.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Thank you!
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Does anyone have the latest forecast H85 zonal wind anomaly forecast for 5N to 5S? None of the ones that I usually access are updated...
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    That is nuts....you just recreated my extra tropical Pacific composite. I hadn't even viewed that correlation map, either. Matches it 100%.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    As much as those in weather circles shit on seasonal guidance for being biased towards stock ENSO, we can say the same thing about the CPC forecasts.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    December 1986 looks like a pretty good match, too.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I get it's too early to definitely say whether that will chance by the time that the winter season ensues, but the mid latitude ground truth relative to the development of past major El Nino events dictates that this definitely remains a work on progress.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    It seems to me like we are establishing a modest cool ENSO baseline of sorts due to the increased warmth pooling in the western Pacific, however, for that same reason the frequency of powerful El Nino events is also increasing as part or the overall redistribution oriented efforts to maintain the global heat budget.....ie more frequent La Nina, but weaker...less frequent El Nino, but more powerful ones.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think it's also possible to get too extreme in the other direction as far CC goes, and this isn't a slight at John..as I discussed last spring, I was actually guilty of that last winter and it ultimately served to tarnish what was an otherwise absolutely exemplary seasonal effort. It's crucial to find and maintain that balance between the synthesis of lessons learned to inform future efforts, while also appreciating that each individual season possesses important differences. I'm still trying to find my proverbial footing in that regard.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think you need to look beyond the CC aspect, too, though....most guidance will be too cold...got it. But if it's right with the orientation of those heights into our area, then we'd have some chances....I get the exaggerated SE CONUS trough, etc....but that isn't entirely prohibitive, TBH, it could even be beneficial for us relative the mid atl as long as the gradient doesn't get overly steep. The STJ with these things can sometimes get buried.
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