40/70 Benchmark

Yea, this is the time of year I gave up last year and I'm getting close...only difference is I have more hope for late year than I did last season.

I liked their look for the second system....the ridge out west becomes better oriented.

You can start with the ridge out west being positively tilted...I said that a couple of days ago....it's like last year. Set up looks good from 500 yards, but once you get a good look, the beer goggles come off. If you remember in that January system circa like the 10th that failed...we had the same issue. We had one big 12z run in that one, too....everyone, including me bough it. Learned a lesson a year ago about the importance of not just the ridge placement, but orientation. Look, I get why someone like Kev is excited...he will be happy with like 3-4"..that's fine. Decent shot of that IMO. But at this point of the season, I think a lot of us are done with the sand blasts over trivial amounts of snow. But if you savor every flake and still look forward to it, then great.

The upside isn't much more than that up here. I get it.....people sit on the dopamine syringe and spin when they see the deep closed low, but that is NOT where you want that if you live up here. That overhyped, wind-bag in early January 2018 did that.

NVM all of the other idiosyncrasies that are holding this back, I never like seeing a deep closed low over upstate Carolina.....nothing good comes from that for NE. Upside is a sloppy seconds, off of the tree, off of the car, off of the woodpecker's head, off of the neighbor's dong, nothing but net.-type of moderate event. I get it...everyone is desperate....it's like when I was in the Marine Corps and we'd lock eyes with a moderately weathered (no pun intended), redheaded chick missing a boob in a jack shack off of Camp Lejune. This is the type of evolution that you staggered towards at last call when the lights turn on to reveal that you're still by yourself. Just set expectations accordingly for this first wave. It sucks-

Yea, night and day

That is how I'd hedge....EURO AI was doing that, too.

Don't hate it as long as it nuisances south of me. Mid atl can have the road salt blizzard.

That storm blows.

If it's like 3-6" I really wouldn't care...prefer it TBH.

You don't have to tell me that...just saying.

GFS did earlier.

Yea, what's a foot between weenies...

Well, hr 108..one camp will cave soon.

Bregman to Cubs

You're going to catch a lot of shit for that one I'd just leave it and see how much everyone measures.

I don't want the keys to a bus headed for a cliff.

Lot more drinking this Kool aid than I thought would.

Nothing surprises me after the past 8 years.

F^ck that. Next-

Winter Poised To Return Next Week As Scheduled Increasing Storm Risk Will Accompany Colder Pattern The Descent & Stretching Of Polar Vortex It was reiterated by Eastern Mass Weather last week that a positive TNH pattern would begin to establish itself around the middle of the month, which is a theme that has been consistently advertised list last fall. It was asserted that this new pattern would stabilize by approximately January 20th, at which point a slew of moderate winters storms would ensue as the PV meanders in the general vicinity of James Bay. This +TNH configuration is clearly materializing by early next week, with a colder resurgence accompanying the establishment of the PV near James Bay, Canada, and the first of probably sequence of winter storms organizing. Although the +TNH pattern is often accompanied by lower heights out west given the tendency for southeast ridging, the expectation from Eastern Mass Weather was that the development of a +PNA configuration would ensue during the month of January in conjunction with this pattern, and that is exactly what is poised ensue. As it turns out, it is the precise evolution of this PNA ridge out west that will have major implications on what exactly materializes on the east coast late next week and into the weekend. West Coast Ridge Crucial To Coast Storm Threats Next Week The current interval of RNA that began near the end of November has been a very prominent and protracted one indeed, having persisted for approximately six weeks. Eastern Mass Weather used history as a guide last fall in positing that the consistently negative PNA values from December would give way to a mean positive PNA in the mean during the month of January. This notion was recently buttressed by data provided by Don Sutherland of Americanwx forums, which indicated that 10/10 -PNA streaks of 35 days or greater during the months of November-December since 1980, have averaged positive over the subsequent 30 day period. Data Courtesy of Don Sutherland While guidance has been slow to adjust to this notion, it has, and there is is evidence that is continuing to do so even as the PNA finally recovers to positive values today. Note that the guidance from just one week ago had the RNA returning as early as the 15th of January, which Eastern Mass Weather correctly identified as incorrect. Sure enough, the most recent data indicates that this transition has now been delayed 4 days to January 19th. This an internal part of the forecast for the +TNH pattern that is becoming established for the latter half of January because the addition of a +PNA in this type of pattern will increase the likelihood of significant, and perhaps even major east coast cyclogenesis, as opposed to the traditional overrunning type of precipitation events that typically rule these sort of regimes. This is due to the fact that southeast heights are often elevated enough to compress the flow when abutting against the colder, lower heights south of the PV over the Northeast, which shears storms. However, this is mitigated largely neutralized by the PNA. This trend for a more protracted period of PNA is likely to continue given that the MJO will be approaching phase 7 at a relatively high amplitude just beyond the 20th of the month. This particular convective forcing regime across the tropical Pacific will constructively interfere with the amplification and maintenance of west coast ridging for the vast majority of the balance of January, despite what guidance currently implies. Note how crucial the position and orientation of said ridge is to the evolution of the potential interval of storminess along the east coast late next week. The first wave of energy on Friday is unlikely to coalesce quickly and proficiently enough to yield a major storm given the location and especially the orientation of the the west coast ridge, as was the often the case last season. However, the western ridge positions itself in a manner that is more favorable for significant northeast US storm impacts by next Friday, as the predecessor ocean storm exits stage right. The region is poised for the first in what is likely to be a series of winter storms with MJO assist next weekend, although precipitation type issues are likely to join the fray with subtle retreat of the PV. More updates to follow this week.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/01/winter-poised-to-return-next-week-as.html

"Very high" in terms of confidence that it will snow, or "very high" in terms of the perceived ceiling....

Are you surprised by how good it is?

Well, urinating on the napkin would take care of that, too. You must not read my storm forecasts...they really aren't long.