40/70 Benchmark

I'm so sick of the social mediaologists advertising "wild times"....GTF outta here with that. If I can't see "wild" out my window, and I have to look at the thermometer, then that isn't wild. Wait until a major storm is consistently modeled.

When you consider when I published, it absolutely was. The precip type was modeled as excessively white for my area on Sunday night. As far as underperforming in the snow area, if you mean relative to clown maps...sure. But I would argue that was better modeled than the warm layer given that snow growth was consistently modeled as inferior..that is always red flag against heavier totals.

Thanks. I would have loved to have waited until Monday, and the results reflected why.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/12/exceedingly-difficult-forecast-yields.html B-

Exceedingly Difficult Forecast Yields "Mixed" Results: What's Next? Poorly Modeled Atmospheric Warm Layer Complicated Forecast Unique Circumstances Hindered Forecast Effort Given the circumstances, the forecast for yesterday's system can be considered an admirable effort. Personal time constraints warranted an early publication on Sunday evening, approximately 36 hours prior to the onset of the event. This proved crucial given the fact that modeling struggled to accurately portray a subtle warm layer above the surface over eastern areas right up until the time the event was actually unfolding. Given that the atmospheric profile was marginal to support snowfall to begin with, this obviously had major repercussions across a large portion of the area. Precipitation Type Issues Proved Difficult to Diagnose Eastern Mass Weather did well identifying the zone of maximum snowfall amounts, as well as the totals in Sunday's Final Call. Note that the maximum amounts of 9-9.5" from Dover, NH, to Dunbarton, NH over the Peterborough, NH are either in, or very near the heaviest 5-10" band denoted on the forecast. However, accuracy was lacking on the southern end of the snowfall area. It is clear that the 2" or less area should have extended through the 2-4" area, the 3-6" zone should have been 1-3", and the southeastern flak of the 4-8" areas would have been better served to have been 2-5". This forecasting error was due to a poorly modeled layer of mid level warmth at approximately the 900mb level became more accurately modeled during the day on Monday and into Monday night, after the issuance of the forecast. This became much more apparent by the 00z Tuesday European model, which was released early Monday morning. Clearly there is a layer of above freezing at the 900MB level in this forecast sounding for Methuen, MA by about 1PM on Tuesday, which implies sleet already mixing at that point. However, temperatures near the surface at this particular locale only approached freezing in the latter stages of the event on Tuesday evening, thus the air at the surface remained cold. This is why forecasters attributing the dearth of snowfall over Eastern Mass to elevation, or sun strength are lazy or negligent at best, and ignorant at worst. Suggesting that topography, solar irradiance or warm ground was the primary inhibitor to snowfall accumulations when the warmest layer was in fact above the surface, just over two weeks removed from the winter solstice is pure folly. What is also utter folly is failing to use a rather unique forecasting situation as a learning experience, and taking inventory of potential "red flags" to take heed of moving forward. Let Snow Growth Guide Forecasts Eastern Mass Weather remained rather conservative with snowfall amounts for this system, forecasting 4-8" over the vast majority of the area that received predominately snowfall, and 5-10" in a relatively narrow corridor from interior southeastern New Hampshire, down into Worcester county, Mass. This proved to be a wise call, as some outlets were forecasting up to a one foot of snowfall over a relatively large area. The primary reason may have also been interpreted as a warning that the lower and/or mid levels of the atmosphere were indeed going to verify warmer than forecasts 36-48 hours prior to the onset of the event. Poor snow growth in conjunction with progressive nature of the system was noted in the Final Call as the reason that amounts exceeding 8" would be scarce. However, in hindsight, given the marginal profile of the atmosphere as it pertained to being supportive of snowfall in general, it would have been a prudent course of action to be even more conservative on the southeastern half of the forecast snow shield, which resided over eastern Mass. Final Grade: B- Looking Ahead Throughout First Half of December Frigid air looks to infiltrate the region by Friday, as a polar vortex lobe looks to pay the area a visit. Then there may not be a long wait to utilize the lessons learned from this most recent trying storm forecast, given the patten that is poised to settle in of the first half of December that is largely consistent with the intensity and character of this weak, eastern-biased La Niña event.

TBH, that isn't the ideal route to a high-end month east of ORH in December, anyway.

Better climo, though...

I also need to vent about Wankum...man, I can't stand him...such a lazy met. I love WCVB, but he is tough to stomach...always offers up these half-hazard, overly simplistic explanations that are just patently wrong. I mean...I get dumbing it down for the laymen, but to keep insisting central Mass got the snow because of elevation is idiotic when many spots in eastern areas hardly cracked freezing, and spots in the VALLEY out west still had 6". Is it rocket science to explain there was a warm layer a bit off of the ground back east?? He also was talking about the warm ground from the fall...what an ass.

Yes...it was also huge to grab that inch of fluff at the end that a lot of SNE largely missed out on....covers up the rainy scars from yesterday evening...which as Steve said, us much more beneficial now than it is during March.

It is frustrating how the gradient is always JUST to my north.

Storm sucked, but at least I have a modest bullet-proof pack, so can't complain (too much).

How much did you end up with in MHT? 5-6"?

It was still dark, but seemed like it was just a dusting once I hit 128.

Not all of it, but there will be some melting. I wasn't implying it would all melt. The hills are a different story.

I would be shocked if we hit mid month without a solid warned event for much of the region....strongly doubt we make it that far.

I also see people posting to the effect that what we have on the ground "isn't going anywhere"....well, it's going to be near 40 today and tomorrow here on the cp, so last time I checked, snow goes down the drain at that temp.

That same gradient yet again...so often you do much better than I do. 1" on the back end for a 2.5" total. Only good growth was at the end.

I wasn't trying to be a dick ...but you're a pro...poll your clients RE whether or not they find value in identifying periods of elevated risk for severe weather.

Sure, absolutely add what it does favor, but lets be honest...we are all looking for a blizzard, which is why he pointed out the limitations. I don't think there was an insinustion made that it couldn't support some more pedestrian threats.

I didn't say anyone called for one. The comment was made that the upcoming pattern is unfavorable for one, and you responded with semantics concerning climo. I don't agree that there is no valuein it...there is absolutely value in highlighting an enhanced risk, and this upcoming pattern isn't one...otherwise, WTH are we doing?? Isn't forecasting the goal?

Come on, dude...you know what he means. A big se ridge isn't how you get one.

Shocking because that usually works out (eyeroll)

You got thrown a bone in January 2022, and me in January 2024....other than that, brutal stretch.

Heh....I was hoping that idea wouldn't work out, but....

Looks like me make through at least 12/9 without anything else noteworthy, so aside from this crap event, my second week idea looks to be working out....this is like 2007. We had one crap event on 12/4, then waited for the second week to really get going.