40/70 Benchmark

I see your point, but I have a couple counters that you neglect to consider. I know for a fact that modern snowfall measuring techniques are not homogeneous....secondly, while I do agree that the 6 hourly method does increase totals on average because it's actually measuring snowfall, which is different from to snow depth, there are some mixed precipitation events in which it will not.

It's because the warming of the western Pacific has outpaced eastern Pacific, which fosters a cool ENSO paradigm.

Weak-moderate is absolutely better than strong in my region.

Let me preface this by admitting that I am still on my annual hiatus and won't begin really diving in until latter May/June....but I remain skeptical of an uber-strong El Nino. My larger concern is the continued lag between the RONI and the ONI being reflective of what will ultimately be a partial masking the warm ENSO, and thus a reduced north Pacific response, which would mean a less pronounced GOA low. I do not expect a result as dire as 2023 because we seem to have a changed longer-term WPO modes, but I would, nonetheless, like to see that delt between the RONI and ONI close with time.

Yup. NCAR is NOMORE

I was a bit underwhelmed awakening to cloudy and 45.

Doesn't really change anything using 1991-2020.

This is a warmer version of the 1950s and 1980s, though hemispherically speaking, it's more akin to the 1950s...so instead of 19.9" or 19.7, NYC has averaged 18.2 this decade. o

I was, but appreciated his thoughtful response, anyway.

Maybe in terms of temps, but I doubt in terms of snowfall. 1982, 1997 and 2015 all had one great storm.

Have you considered the possibility that it may never snow again south of Bridgeport, CT if we get another super El Nino?

1982 would actually be a best-case scenario assuming a super El Nino, and may be a favored outcome considering the recent flip to more -WPO in the northern Pacific. It was mild, but had essentially normal snowfall throughout the northeast. I don't mean like 2015, which was good in the mid Atlantic due to one storm, but still sucked in the northeast.

If we are going to go high end, I just assume the RONI not lag the ONI......I would prefer to take my chances with both in sync and try to pop a huge GOA low. I understand the risks with east-based and such, but keep in mind that I'm conceding a mild winter and am just looking for a window to get a good storm. My largest fear is some El nino/cool ENSO bastard-child, along the lines of 2023 that won't pop a se trough.

Only super event with normalish snowfall in my area...still warm, of course.

Yea, subtle shift with the "angle of the dangle" of that vortex, and whole new pattern. It was not only the -WPO ridge shifting east, but the /AONAO blocking dissipated, so we got the dreaded elongation of the "football" shaped PV.

It will also be interesting to see how the burgeoning warm ENSO interacts with the apparent north Pacific phase change, as we have clearly shifted to more of a -WPO base-state. If El Nino does grow as powerful as some suspect, it may be more like a 1982-1983 type of deal, where as the north Pacific was a bit more favorable.

I don't understand why folks can't grasp the fact that a mere "30% chance of showers" in the p&c will trigger the rain icon in the graphics. It's really not complicated at all.

PNA was only positive in January, as expected.

Takes a monster -WPO.

I raked through everything last weekend...picked up all of the sticks, etc.

Yes, this is why I am going to be keeping a close vigil on the RONI/ONI separation. I don't view the delta as a positive for winter enthusiasts.

26.4 for low...mind must have stayed up a bit because I didn't radiate that well.

Half inch?

Nothing new...