40/70 Benchmark

Is the mean better?

Better orientation of the ridge out west changes that IMHO.

Wow, that is the first run I've seen that has pretty much lost that annoying positive-tilt sw to be orientation of the PNA ridge...can work with that if it's real. Previously that wasn't rectified until the follow up wave.

Yea, me too.

I'm just needling there....18z actually looked respectable.

Inverted trough.....wow, awesome.

I won't melt from this lead wave...I've largely ignored it. If the follow up rains on me, then it's fair game.

Yes...I know.

Fair. Let me know how much you get Friday. Good luck.

Honestly probably what will happen.

Not sure how that's relevent...point is PD II wasn't heavy and wet for most.

I had like a foot...plenty of events that the vast majority can't even recall that I would take over that.

Yea, hopefully the ULL keeps trending deeper and more closed so Hyannis can do better.

You're making his point...you are getting TFO of here, so "it's all good" for you....

Define "good"....like Scott said, it simply doesn't matter here as much as it would under different circumstances. The floor is SUCKS and the ceiling is sucks.

Don't confuse QPF with LE in the snowfall...it was a dry snow just off of the coast.

I mean it's not a major snow either way....maybe the south coast gets 4" instead of 2"...the mositure is offshore.

That is what usually happens with arctic blasts in +TNH patterns...historic cold knifes down the center of the country and we get unremarkable anomalies.

The follow up event that is decent is probably going to have that same gradient of the last 8 years that has driven me nuts...just north of me. I'll go full-tilt.

The PNA is still being undersold.

Absolutely.

I really don't think it matters.

Yea, this is the time of year I gave up last year and I'm getting close...only difference is I have more hope for late year than I did last season.

I liked their look for the second system....the ridge out west becomes better oriented.

You can start with the ridge out west being positively tilted...I said that a couple of days ago....it's like last year. Set up looks good from 500 yards, but once you get a good look, the beer goggles come off. If you remember in that January system circa like the 10th that failed...we had the same issue. We had one big 12z run in that one, too....everyone, including me bough it. Learned a lesson a year ago about the importance of not just the ridge placement, but orientation. Look, I get why someone like Kev is excited...he will be happy with like 3-4"..that's fine. Decent shot of that IMO. But at this point of the season, I think a lot of us are done with the sand blasts over trivial amounts of snow. But if you savor every flake and still look forward to it, then great.