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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Point is those "freak" storms are pretty common in this magnitude of El Nino....Feb 1983, January 2016 (which only grazed me), Dec 1997. The deck will be stacked in favor of a big fish, sorry I can't guarantee it will rake everyone. The southeast doesn't look +4 to me.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    I anticipate a very mild first half, with a stout PV, PAC jet and +NAO....a shift should occur during January which will begin as an AK ridge acting as the catalyst for the first real arctic air of the season, and also ultimately act to trigger big NAO blocking in Feb via wave 1 reflection.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    That actually isn't that bad....has you like 4-5" below average and me 5-6". I think we'd all take that. Makes more sense to the than the robust CANSIPS and early EURO run.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    SSW are overrated....they are often feast or famine....again, you don't need the PV to be decimated to get blocking. That is a misconception. W QBO obviously favors a stout PV, which makes it more impervious to heat propagation, so these seasons are prone to stratospheric reflection that can still get the job done. See latter January-early Feb 1983.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well aware....
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looking at the scale, you are right.....the colors make it look awful, but it's actually pretty reasonable...has me at like 5-6" under average, which is like mid-high 50s. Let me amend earlier what I said about a compromise.....def. prefer the EURO snowfall, though it could be light across the deep interior of NE.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, the PV will probably be pretty stout, but there is more than one way to skin a cat....ie produce intervals of high latitude blocking.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    3 month period.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    @BlizzardWxWhen are you going to have the new EURO seasonal uploaded onto your site?
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I like the EURO better than the CANSIPS due to the handling of ENSO and the extra tropical Pacific...as I have been saying....but I don't think it will be that bad. Compromise between the two for snowfall. Probably heavily EURO on temps.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Check my edit....huge +EPO, despite big -NAO.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    That's the August run...September is UGLY.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yup.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    WINTER WINTER WINTER WINTER WINTER WINTER WINTER
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    1972 screwed everyone in the mid atl and NE...so not counting that one, 2016 is the only intense El Niño that totally boned me.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I want the prospect of history to loom, and I only had that for a couple of days last year, which ended up going unfulfilled. Say what you want about the temps, but we should have plenty of drama next year....hell, even 2024 and 1997 I salvaged some incredible events.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    TBH, I would prefer one 30"er to last season...I know I am probably in the minority on that, but only that latter January event was noteworthy in my neck of the woods....rest of the events were lame as fu(k....especially the blizzard that gave a guidance lap dance for a couple of days before taking off with the bouncer.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    On average....but I don't have to tell you we just need to time one or two correctly to salvage a redeemable season.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    I got a brief shower late day.... .03".
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Hey, gotta pass the time during this extended stretch of boring weather.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    RIP as it pertains to a cold seasons with consistent retention, but a mild map with extremely high precipitation in the mean leaves snowfall pretty wide-open...aside from probably being able to eliminate the prospects for a top 10 season north of NYC.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Everyone struggles from time to time time, but not everyone admits it...he is one,
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Good advice I'm general, but the CANSIPS cold bias is fact. Having it do fairly well last year doesn't disprove that....no bias is absolute. This year is the type of season where would likely to too cold.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Good time for it...let that cold source build.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Cosgrove sure has an interesting take...heh. Seems to be going with a CANSIPS type outcome with massive AK/western Canadian and CONUS ridging. Big -EPO/PNA.
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