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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I hate the 1997 analog for everything but ENSO....2015 is good from a polar standpoint. This is the summer analog H5 composite I came up with.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Ohhhhh...that makes more sense...so 50% of between -.78 and +.32...that is more palatable for me, but I would still hedge higher.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    We have been dead-on past few years, but I may have to stray a bit this year lol
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Okay....so DJFM mean NAO of -.75...so 50% chance of having a mean DJFM NAO between -.25 and -1.25.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Geez...that is convincing...I hate to go against the descending solar/W QBO/multidecadal trend, but that makes it tough. What you mean by -.75 PER MONTH.....isn't -.75 the DJFM aggregate mean per the formula?
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I bet we see the PDO ascend to near neutral between now and the end of November.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I saw that post concerning October and viewed it as good news. I still remember when you schooled me on that as a weenie back in the fall of 2006....we had this big block in October and I got all excited, and you went on about how it meant +NAO later and how it would be an epically warm winter.....rest is history.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    There was a historic storm during both months....obvioously March was the larger scope, but that 92 nor' easter was easy for the NE...historic CF and up to 4' of snow in the Berkshires and 3' in the Worcester hills.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, a bit of irony...I get it. I don't lose sleep over it....if I'm being honest, I can see the issue with celebrating Colombus given the history there, even Redskins given the racial connotation, but I have no idea what was wrong with the "Indians".....I'm Irish, and couldn't give a rat's a$$ about the "Fighting Irish" having a bit of a drunken, pugilist connotation there. I appreciate the humor.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Very true...I usually don't do that, so my bad there.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm not sure I'd call that a melt...is that how you perceive dissenting viewpoints?
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Should be the least shot at 80 of the season...not counting Xmas Eve, when Tip's Hadley Cell ventures down the chimney to devour all of the childrens' toys.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I love the Cleveland Indians and Washington Red Skins.....Chief Wahoo FTW.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, missed that one.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    1963 and 1968 (both -PDO) are the only El Nino events of appreciable intensity....1958, 1976 and 1977, like 2004, were weak.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, I have always been with you on that. Interesting you note the weak signal nationally because some of the seasonal guidance has been hinting that December maybe colder than January and February in the NE.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Good question...I guess the year in the aggregate?
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    I know that.....I mean the entire list of cold arctic years.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would not expect that this year....1997 was low, ascending solar with a strong easterly QBO...very odd timing for a super-El Nino. This year fits the bill with W QBO and descending solar. Good luck with early blocking. 1997 is a very poor polar analog...our chances will come later this year.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    2004 was a weak El Nino...any other warm ENSO years on that list?
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'd just assume worm-hole to Columbus Day weekend...or indigenous ass-parade, or whatever in the hell the libs call it these days. PS: It's Columbus Day.....he sailed the ocean blue-deal with it.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Short-lived.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I agree....they way I interpret that is some second half volatility. I don't see the season averaging -NAO. I think wave reflection is the path this year....like 1983. I don't think a reversal is in the cards. Guidance may try to flag one, and then back off.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Both are elite polar analogs.
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