40/70 Benchmark

Ignore this at your own forecast peril if you plan on publishing work touting a non-winter along the east coast. The final two analogs have very similar placement of the central-based connective node this season, which is in the vicinity of 170 degrees longitude in the central Pacific, however, they were appreciably weaker El Niño events that were largely bereft of any eastern competition. The forcing was in the central Pacific simply because they were central-Pacific El Niño events, which is why there was no competing forces stretching the convection, as is the case this year. Thus it is for this reason in addition to the warming climate that the second half of the impending winter is highly unlikely to be as consistently cold as the coming season, despite each being viable polar analogs. It is for these reasons that this season the warmer periods will be of longer duration and of greater magnitude than the colder periods relative the 1957-1958 and 1965-1966 analogs. However, each of these seasons are relatively strong polar analogs and the center of the convective forcing was nearly identical to where the central node is expected to reside during the coming season, at around 170 degrees longitude.

Adam used to edit previous posts to add in another comment lol...I like that better.

Right....not as far west as 2023, which as into the MC and very hostile. Expect it to the south of Hawaii...this is more favorable. This is what I was just trying to explain to Chuck.

I'm not talking about STRENGTH...I mean strongest point of convective forcing.

I would also be careful with the very linear line of thought that there can't be any pattern deviation because it's so east based.

My postulation is basin-wide/hybrid forcing for that reason...like 1957 and 1965, but warmer.

@LibertyBellhas the record for most quotes in one response.

You are viewing a monthly mean, which is important considering any potential pattern change around that time...but I see some decent ridging out west.

No, the risk is not properly conveying an adequate sense of urgency concerning a landfalling hurricane. No one but we weather dorks cares if max sustained winds occur a mile off of the beaches, but the much larger deal is if significantly higher winds and surge than anticipated were to occur.

Catskills should do well.

Strong forecast. https://forecastmaven.com/forecasts/easternmassweather/hurricane-isaias-landfall-accurately-forecast/ Hurricane Isaias Landfall Accurately Forecast Timing Slightly too Slow The center of the rapidly degrading eye of Hurricane Isaias crossed the coast near Destin, FL with 105MPH maximum sustained winds at about 930PM EDT. This was precisely as forecast in the Final Call issued this afternoon in terms of landfall locale and intensity, but the timing was about 1.5 hours faster than 11PM EDT forecast. Although the landfall intensity needed to be adjusted upwards slightly in the Final Call issued earlier today, the Destin, FL locale was consistent since First Call on Wednesday. Final Grade: A

I wonder if I hit my max surge mark of 10'? Killed it on LF locale and intensity. ...should be a quick post-mortem.

Post less, sleep more

I think it will become more evenly distributed...I do agree that the EURO is overdoing the westward shift, as all guidance has been.

I was not, nor do I deny CC.

I'm talking 3 months from now.

Heh...DT jumping on the "Second half Modoki" train....that is an exaggeration, but as I have ben saying, it will erode from the east, which will allow for more conducive mid seasonal flip.

Matt is a helluva writer...does baseball and weather.

Final Call for Major Hurricane Isaias...no changes in track, but slightly stronger. Landfall near Destin, FL at 11PM tonight with maximum sustained winds of 105MPH and maximum storm surge of around 10' in the vicinity of Choctawhatchee Bay, FL. https://forecastmaven.com/forecasts/easternmassweather/final-call-for-dangerous-major-hurricane-isaias-approach-to-fl-panhandle/ Isaias Final Call:

This won't weaken as much as Lilly...that went from 145mph to 100mph at LF.

I still like Choctawhatchee Bay for max surge of 10'.

Good call. I was all over the eastern track, but I should have factored the implications of that more heavily into the intensity forecast, as more of an easterly component minimizes shear. I hit that hard in the Thursday and Thursday night forecast period from Wednesday, but neglected it later.

Yea, once it moves perpendicular to the shear, disruption to the circulation increases.

Sat image reminds me of Opal.