40/70 Benchmark

NBD here...pretty boring.

I had .61" event total as of midnight. .03" Friday and .58" yesterday.

Man, Cosgrove sounds aggressive....have 2014 a shoutout.

Yea, MC is going down...pretty clear.

100% dead-on. ...I just hit on all of that in he piece I just published...competing convective forcing nodes....one in the central Pacific in association with the western warm pool that was dislodged eastward, and one with the El Niño....we are now rooting for the same warm pool that we have spent the better part of a decade cursing out.

Good....not bad timing for a deviation from warm ENSO climo, especially a record one.

Lots to unpack in this final El Niño update before the main Outlook in about 6 weeks time, but this weekend's major east coast storm may be a sign of what is to come. Here is one excerpt to provide a bit of a sneak-preview: A diligent forecaster that has engaged in an exhaustive analysis of the data will be acutely aware of the fact that the pattern across the hemisphere has grown much more representative of a healthy El Nino during the month of August. A forecaster of this ilk would position oneself to also be aware of a potential mid-season shift westward in the orientation of an El Nino that absolutely presents as east-based in the mean; not to mention a winter season that was exceptionally mild overall in the midst of a rapidly warming climate, yet managed to facilitate shorter-term unions between the arctic branch and the most impressive subtropical jet ever observed to author one of the more scintillating chapters in meteorological lore- https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/09/record-el-nino-poised-to-trigger.html

Lots to unpack in this final El Niño update before the main Outlook in about 6 weeks time, but this weekend's major east coast storm may be a sign of what is to come. Here is one excerpt to provide a bit of a sneak-preview: A diligent forecaster that has engaged in an exhaustive analysis of the data will be acutely aware of the fact that the pattern across the hemisphere has grown much more representative of a healthy El Nino during the month of August. A forecaster of this ilk would position oneself to also be aware of a potential mid-season shift westward in the orientation of an El Nino that absolutely presents as east-based in the mean; not to mention a winter season that was exceptionally mild overall in the midst of a rapidly warming climate, yet managed to facilitate shorter-term unions between the arctic branch and the most impressive subtropical jet ever observed to author one of the more scintillating chapters in meteorological lore- https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/09/record-el-nino-poised-to-trigger.html

I didn't need a blizzard to feel this way.

Imagine doing that with 100lbs of equipment under the stressful conditions in which they completed that task...

Awesome.

You mean impressive wind will be confined to the cape?? I had a great inside tip from my pal, climo....should have listened; dude knows his stuff-

Perhaps a few smashed pumpkins as they prep the razor blades for the trick or treat candy....

Just be leery that it may not be the wind if the bushes are reverberating.

I wonder if our resident -not-so-secret @CoastalWx admirer, Boris has put his clothing back on... @CoastalWx, take a peek outside your bedroom window and check...

Wow, that is probably too weak, but I'm balls-deep in ENSO right now, so only keeping peripheral tabs.

Doubtful....it's just unlikely to be as memorable as many starving weather enthusiasts would like.

I mentioned yesterday it's often overamped....I mean, it probably will have had the better idea when all is said and done, but it will also probably have capitulated to an extent relative to the more ominous runs.

I hope it rains a good deal, but I couldn't give a rat's a$$ about the "wind" and all of those fraud threats.....unless you live right at the shore. I know the people that sounded the alarms are going to inevitably cry foul based on perceived modeling failures, but the fact of that matter is that it's September and excitement is an exceedingly rare climatological phenomenon around these parts. This time of year, I'd be content to get my rocks off to drought relief and seeing the decadal precip hole fill as winter nears.

Yes, but much needed rain.

It absolutely will....but I think it could also be snowier, and in fact it likely will be.

Don't forget the fact that the solar cycle and QBO are also more hostile. In the interest of being truly exhaustive, I think you also need to consider the ramifications of that 30 years of warming on the Pacific basin, as it's been biasing convective forcing westward relative to expectations derived from traditional diagnosis, such as max ENSO SST anomaly.

1983 followed a very common El Niño Modoki Index trajectory in that it began extremely east-based, then began to decay westward post-peak. I still expect this one to do that to an extent, but I must admit I no longer as confident that it will do so to the extent of 1983. I am in the process of revising things and now expect to remain more east-based than I did over the summer....large impact on the forecast? Nope.

I agree with you. I started off conservatively with this El Niño, until I could see the white of history's eyes, which I am viewing. My update-in-progress has it 3.0 to 3.2. The Euro is at like 3.5, which I am confident is wrong because that is essentially as high as the ONI, which isn't happening. Should maintain like a .4 deficit in relation to the ONI...like 2015.

December forcing looks like 1997 to me, though it will be warmer this year due to the solar and stratosphere...January looks like 1983. The days of always being able to discern the placement of convective forcing by simply viewing where the max SST anomalies are within ENSO are gone...believe me, I blew up my outlook doing it in 2023.