40/70 Benchmark

Same page with him on that, but I think we see a reversal in February.

December will be very good for us...it's the mid Atlantic that will take the shaft. Not worried in the least. My December analogs show this well.

I think I'll do fine in December.

I don't expect any KUs in December...more of an overrunning/SWFE threat, as others have mentioned....although I did include a slight chance early on.

The cold isn't going to just surge in here with at least minor resistance from the PNA...not the arctic stuff, anyway...it will take a week or so into December.

I think that is the favored outcome.

I meant to look through the behavior of the MJO for my entire analog set in putting together the forecast at the end, but I forgot to do it...if I mess up the December progression and rush the warmth, that is why.

This is my complete December list: December Analogs: 2021, 2017,2008, 2007, 2000, 1981, 1970 Seasonal: Primary Sensible Weather Winter Analogs (*Denotes Strongest Analog): 2024-2025, 2021-2022, 2017-2018, *2000-2001, 1970-1971

I liked Dec 1970, 2007 and 2008 as SWFE analog months.

I haven't started looking at discrete threats....still in cool-down mode after my seasonal deep-dive. Probably fire up the package next week.

No, I don't expect you to get screwed badly in a SWFE...maybe a bit less, but not pantsed. That is more likely in a coastal later in the month.

Folks also need to remember that the MJO isn't the sole pattern driver...it's an element that can either constructively or deconstructivity interfere with the background forcing. Ie...it's one ingredient in the dish, not the main course.

Absolutely....especially closer to the latter portion of that period.

I thought I just mentioned the MJO in my reply...?

Obviously I'm not a met, but my stance is the pattern begins to break down by mid month into Xmas...probably not "warm". I may have def. rushed that though given the weak antecedent nature of the PV in conjunction with the anticipated behavior of the MJO. Just don't be surprised to see the second half trend a bit warmer.

This probably ties into the rule concerning the higher amplitude MJO waves in October preceding colder winters that @bluewavehas referenced, though I know that is a more recent phenomenon. I do wonder if those seasons were higher amplitude in October. Looks like 2010 would fit the mold...not so much 2005 and 2000.

While this is true, I don't think that is the reason in this case....there is a seasonal element. No question cold and snow gets more hype in the winter.

VOTE

Bias is easy to discern among those who actually venture to issue a forecast, but it's also there amongst the Sunday AM QBs...just more subtle. The tell tale sign is the presentation of one-sided data. I think a quality that is inherent of all good posters is a willingness to present data that is representative of the range of possible outcomes. ...ie the folks that relegate themselves to posting about the MC and -IOD are just as culpable as those in the SSW/phase 8 circle-jerk. We all know the ones on each side....you know what the data offered will favor before reading it.

Granted there are more cold mongers, but we all know the select few who only post concerning indicators in favor of warmth (not Don). To each their own, but I try to be limit the bias and keep it real.

I do agree that the majority of it is a cesspool, though.

Depends whom you follow. DT has been all over it.

I've been shafted, as well....last normal snowfall season was 2017-2018....haven't come within 10" since.

I'm so pissed I forgot to incorporate the MJO behavior of my primary analog into the December forecast....what an oversight.