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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's affecting the pattern a great deal in the tropics, probably more so than any ENSO event in history at this time of year, but it's impact in the mid latitudes of the N HEM remains rather meager at this time.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Output looks okay on satelitewx.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    @stadiumwaveCan you link where you generated this image?
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    That doesn't change the fact that it's initialization of the Pacific is off, so I would still adjust warmer....but that does make a little more sense. Yea, H5 for August at one month lead was good, but that doesn't mean that is always the case every month.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Sure, but we have good reasons to believe that it isn't. I could still doubt that you're one of NYC's finest after you show me your badge and a pic of you sleeping in the cruiser, but that doesn't change the facts. No runs are key if the model incessantly suffers from an erroneous initialization. Again, this doesn't necessarily mean an awful winter is en route, it just means that CANSIPS output is highly flawed. Maybe we will make out okay and score a HECS...both can be true, and in fact, I suspect that they are.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, and I'm not being facetious....quite literally.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    -AO/+PNA winter en route.....confirms what I had already figured.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Often times when seasonal guidance misses, it never caves....it just misses.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Ah, okay...that makes sense. I agree with that.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    So that implies +AO/-NAO? I'll bet against that-
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    73-74 if it gets stronger...
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Doesn't this fly in the face of your theory of summer +AO leading to winter time -AO?
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    83-84 and 16-17 early leaders in the clubhouse....
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    The leak eastward of CANSIPS continued this month...that trend above was last month.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Here is what I was getting at earlier RE CANSIPS...excerpt from my blog: Guidance is unanimous on notion that El Niño should begin to become more evenly distributed once again as the WWBs finally begin to weaken this fall, but they disagree on just how quickly and to what extent that will occur. The CANSIPS seems too aggressive in weakening the WWBs significantly by October, and the CFS evolution of shifting the event severely towards Modoki before an abrupt reversal to east-based is considered bizarre and thus disregarded. The JMA also seems far too aggressive in increasing the EMI to approximately .7 to .8, likely due to an early and exaggerated WWB retreat. Note that the June forecast already had the EMI crossing into the Modoki side of neutral for July and August, which has not happened. The CANSIPS has been making similar shifts eastward of the El Niño, as the trend from June to August for the peak OND period is clear. The European solution seems most reasonable, with a slow subsiding of the WWBs and accompanying neutralization of the EMI in late October, before a slight resurgence of WWBs and retreat eastward of the El Niño this winter. Here are the three distinct EMI scenarios. The ECMWF evolution of the El Niño EMI essentially neutralizing for winter is favored, which would ultimately render the El Niño as basin-wide.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    It was both.......the first half was bad luck, the second half sucked. Early season was decent owed to the low-scending solar, east QBO combo....but it turned ugly later.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    It was essentially neutral...very positive first half and negative 2nd half. The index calculations don't always match the composite, as was the case last year....it appeared to be a very deeply -WPO but it wasn't due to placement of the ridge.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    97-98 turned out awfully, but it left a good bit on the table....it was actually dealt a pretty favorable hand from a polar perspective, which we don't have this year.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    1983 is also the only super El Nino with a somewhat negative WPO.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'll take the over on snowfall relative to 1997.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    1983 was also very east-based, and to be frank, it's a better polar analog given the QBO and solar cycle. 2016 was actually much warmer given the MC influence, it just happened to have the one storm.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's not handling the Pacific well at all.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Is he still waiting for his canonical, front-loaded La Nina from last year?
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    CANSIPS def. has that Canadian ridge too far NW....I'm sure of it. Most of my composites have it just NNW of the lakes.
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