40/70 Benchmark

I actually like the look of the GEM...I think it's too warm. Looks like EURO, just warmer.

GEM is Scooter's fear....hugger. Elevation event. It was OTS at 12z.

Bring it.

I could have sworn they were down to 32 in 2015....

I love late season huggers....ocean is tame and CF comes inland. Hopefully we get it close.

Not much of a fight.

I'd grade this winter an A.

That is def. a naked-twister run for me....CF stopping by for lunch next Monday.

Just looked ....there is that run from a few days ago I said we'd chase all week

Saturday Snowfall Forecast Verification Enhanced Areas Identified But Snowfall Under Forecast Reality Versus Eastern Mass Weather Forecast Map In order for a snowfall forecast to be truly elite, it is necessary to not only be highly accurate on a qualitative level (identify areas of heavier and lighter snowfall), but obviously it also needs to provide an accurate quantitative assessment of precisely how much snow will fall. When comparing the forecast to reality yesterday, it is apparent that the forecast was very accurate in the diagnosing which areas would be heavily impacted, while leaving much to be desired in that it greatly underestimated the snowfall in said areas. Dual Areas of Focus For Enhanced Snowfall The forecast on Friday identified one area of heavier snowfall associated with an inverted trough over central areas of the forecast area, and another zone of ocean-enhanced snowfall along the north and south shores of the Boston area. The placement of these areas nearly perfect, however, amounts were more on the order of 8-12"+ as opposed to the 3-6"+ that was denoted. Granted this was a very difficult forecast, that is a rather large discrepancy that had major implications for those impacted. Final Grade: B-

Tough forecast yesterday, nailed the areas of enhanced snowfall, but the 3-6"+ forecast was definitely an inadequate range. I tried to convey the uncertainty by adding the "plus" sign, but that discrepancy undoubtedly left something to be desired. It was more like 8-12"+. I also should have had both areas of enhancement extend a bit further to the west. Grade that one on a curve a bit and say B-

With PNA sliding negative it will definitely be Miller B.

Not nearly the same concern it would have warranted a month or two ago....."I ain't afraid of no ocean"

PDIII LFG!!!!

3.4

@The 4 Seasons6.5"

No way you had 2"

It's funny watching DT perplexed at how the guidance keeps whiffing on the MJO getting into phase 8 with any purpose...he keeps buying it every time. You think one of these seasons he would wrap his mind around the fact that there isn't some metaphorical switch that is hit when the weekly anomaly in ENSO region 3.4 gets above -0.5C...he always spews that same nonsense about La Niña dying, blah, blah, blah. I mean...you do this for a living, and I advertised the fact that guidance would do this, and why last fall.

He's struggles to accept CC....I've tried to explain that acceptance is the easiest path.

Nooooo ....depth was about 13.5" last night. 6.5" from this.

I bet CC plays a role in that...

About same...13.5" last night and 6.5" today.

Nah, I've been measuring regularly...just clear in 6 hour intervals. It's NBD...just an inch.

I was down 8" in two weeks..most spots the same, I imagine...maybe inch or two less loss in the hills.