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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Pretty clear to me that it plays a role, as it does in just about everything. Is it the only factor? Of course not...but the sole purpose of ENSO is to redistribute the solar heat that builds in the west Pacific as a product of the Walker Cycle, so it definitely has an impact.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    All joking and ball-busting aside, I certainly see a pathway to a poor winter given the situation with ENSO....and to steal a page from CPC, it's definitely more likely that snowfall will below average than above, however, I think it's far from a foregone conclusion that it will be poor...and yes, I'll spend the better part of the next 3 months of my life explaining why. As far as temps go, it will almost certainly be above average...I think the floor is near normal, like 1957. Crazy how that same area from MBY into se NH has been a screw-zone for QPF this decade...that has been so consistent.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    How would CPC answer this? More likely than not?
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Okay.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't understand on how he can can be so confident in below average temps throughout the NE in the most intense El Nino on record when there is no incidence of the NE being below average in an intense El Nino in recorded history. He said that he would explain early on, but never really did....just offered some vague rhetoric concerning +PNA inducing backdoor arctic shots. While arctic infiltration from the north is the most efficient avenue for arctic delivery in the NE, which was evident in the Feb 2016 outbreak, it is highly unlikely to be prevalent enough to be reflected in the seasonal mean. Above average snowfall virtually everywhere east of the apps?? I could see it for the mid atl, but not all throughout the NE....none of the intense events have pulled that off. He seems to be going with a 1957/1965 outcome, which is near average around here, but I think the magnitude of ENSO and the solar cycle make that a tough sell this year.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    2023 was pretty out of sync from a solar perspective, though, so I do think there was some resistance that may not be readily apparent. This year we have the massive, unprecedented OHC working in conjunction with the favorable descent of solar cycle 25....perfect storm, so to speak. This connection between descending solar and intense El Niño can be explained by the same "bottom up" theory that research originally incorrectly applied to the supposed link between solar max and +NAO, which has since been debunked by more modern work. Here is a schematic explaining why La Nina is favored during high solar, as was the case last winter. Obviously, the inverse is true during descending solar, as is the case currently. More clouds leads to less evaporation and warmer sea surface temperatures, which results in weaker trades with stronger WWBs carrying moisture and warmer waters to the west. This weakens the Walker Cell, leading to stronger MC subsidence in the west, which reduces tropical convection. The descending portion of solar cycle 25 has been met with the highest OHC in recorded history throughout the Pacific basin, hence we are seeing the strongest El Nino in recorded history materialize.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm quite confident that it's related to the massive amount of OHC that has built up in the western Pacific basin.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, I understand that baseline heights are greater, but that doesn't necessarily preclude colder and stormier intervals over the course of a given season.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, but it is my belief that we will have less MC influence than 2023 and more variability than 1997 due to the magnitude of warmth throughout the basin. That said, we shouldn't have the early season blocking that 1997 did due to the different solar and QBO factors.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Okay. The NDJ period trended towards a greater SE trough.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't agree that it's more east-based than 1997, but that is beside the point. You are obsessing over the temp anomalies themselves....it will be above average. We get that. The model will be too cold...got it. But why is it trending colder this late in the game is my point.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think it's important not to automatically dismiss the correction towards default El Nino leading into the strongest El Nino in history.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right, but was there a trend towards a more defined se trough this late in the game? I feel like that is what is important because call me crazy, but this may just be the year when a correction towards default El Nino may be the correct adjustment.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's probably due to the anti-2023 effect, which demonstrated that weaker doesn't necessarily mean colder. Guidance is probably picking up on the reduced MC competition, thus the less inhibited se CONUS trough expression.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    That one may have 2009-2010 like potential as we near solar min and potentially continue to relax the Pacific.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think it's much more for the east coast than your area, but def. get the point.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, we will learn a lot this year...the earth wants ENSO to couple with the mid latitudes because it's that coupling that represents the most proficient avenue for the redistribution of all of that heat...this unprecedented ENSO is the planet's best attempt at bridging that gap in the face of mounting anthropogenic resistance. The only entity that desires the eradication of the west warm pool more than east coast snow enthusiasts is mother nature.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think it's late at this point....my hedge was that it will certainly couple more than 2023, perhaps along the lines of 2015, but I still doubt whether 1997 is walking through that door.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, this is why I was originally reluctant to accept the super-idea...but when I did my deep dive on the polar considerations a couple of weeks ago, I really considered everything from a solar perspective and it's really the 2023-2024 strong event that was the outlier....not this event. That is the one that "didn't fit".
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Is there anyone left debating the super Nino outcome? It already is I gave that up in March.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    You just described 75% of social media.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Oh, I misunderstood....right. I agree with that. It was obvious. As far as the ELI goes.....it's really not even worth arguing bc it's a moot point this season, anyway given the degree of warmth in the basin. That being said, if anyone uses that index exclusively to assess ENSO orientation moving forward, there will undoubtedly be issues....although that can probably be said about any particular metric.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    You don't feel that ENSO is coupled with the tropics right now? I guess we can agree to disagree, then. I prefer a to use all of them TBH, and they all imply the same thing...ENSO is driving the tropics attm.
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