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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agreed....I called that January blizzard over the summer down to within a week.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, I like a weekly peak between 12/17 and 12/29, which is when 1997 and 1982 peaked, respectively. This yield a NDJ ONI peak. Great assessments this year.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, we were both always suspicious of any major impact from the strat. This is why just shake my head when trolls call me a "denier", etc...I usually keep it pretty real and don't hype anything unless it's truly warranted.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think the STJ could be north of that season.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Absolutely, but I think there maybe some deviations given the state of the extra tropical Pacific.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    This never had a prayer of being easterly.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Seems like we all agree it will be warm....just a matter of whether there will be a decent window or two.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    That looks like the porn I tried to watch growing up during the 80s and early 90s in my mom's house....I think I can make out a nipple there, Donnie, you dirty birdie...
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    @forkyfork..."cope".
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I will say I think this bolsters confidence that it won't be as warm as 2015, but I don't think it will be "wintry".
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not necessarily....but I'm with you, I still think December is mild...too much evidence.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, that is a lock considering it's a "bottom-up" phenomenon...
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I have no idea what you mean. I don't see how or why that is an analog in any way, shape or form, aside from the fact that it's likely to be a mild winter.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Def. not this quickly, but it does stand to reason that CC will chip away at the bookends of the season first.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    We ended up getting a western PV lobe to phase in, which ruined that storm...I remember DT gave up on winter after that .
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    He is one of those AI jockeys like SnowBirdBob and all of those fools.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Thanks for the correction....what was it for Dec- March. so I can check my numbers?
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    To be fair, those are all warm ENSO events offered far less resistance to be the development of HLB...probably to an extremely neg AO season like those years.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree, here.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    That may very well happen, but I would think that is what guidance would be showing at this point, regardless.....first of all, those runs default towards ENSO in the longer term, secondly, they are usually adjust to stratospheric phenomena had a pretty lethargic pace. This is why I spent 5-6 months telling people that that big +TNH pattern was going to develop late last January, despite guidance looking to protract that mid month mild period at times.....slow to adjust to the reflection event that I knew was coming in July.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    45+ days for November.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, it was tougher sledding down there, no pun intended....but we saw well over a foot just prior to xmas up here. I agree with most of what you say, but I just think there will be a bit more of a window this season than you do. We are probably pretty close on mean temp departure for the season, though.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    2016 sucked around here...basically for areas that whiffed on the blizzard.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    2.21" rainfall on the month.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Deeply negative, no....but I think it will get more favorable in that domain during the stretch.
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