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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I know the QBO will be positive...just looking for monthly numbers.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Anyone have any insight as to if/when they are every going to calculate the QBO again? It hasn't updated since February and with each passing month it gets more difficult to select analogs with any degree of specificity. I wish they would just use the ERA 5 data base....
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    It will probably shift eastward more, but just that the fact that it's made it there is very remarkable given what has taken place over the past 10 years.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't mean it won't breach 120W...I am talking about there it will be centered.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    If we have another decade like this during the 2030s, then yes....I will assume we have reached a tipping point at which the back ground warming has rendered the pattern irrelevant for east coast snowfall prospects, but I am just not there yet. I think that's a pretty fair stance. Do I expect a repeat of the 2010's next decade? Probably not-
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Epitomizes your online contributions over the course of the past two decades....what a waste of a degree. Plenty of highly esteemed contributors like @bluewaveand @raindancewx are pretty painfully objective with regard to east coast winter prospects...it's not about that. You just don't offer much of value not because you aren't capable, but you allocate all of your time and energy towards mindless trolling.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Any seasonal meteorologist worth a damn would understand that there are multidecadal trends and oscillations at play that are independent of the background warming.....they have all been about as hostile as it gets for east coast winter enthusiasts throughout the 2020s. If you feel the planet is going to warm enough to negate the more favorable shift of the multidecadal hemispheric trends and increased moisture availability, then I would be more than willing to wager against you.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would bet it ends up around 140W.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Just like I thought this decade would be worse than the 2010's...and winter 1996-1997 would be worse than 1995-1996. It's not rocket science.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would bet my life that the 2030's are better for east coast winter enthusiasts than the 2020's....how much better is the focus of debate.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I get what @snowman19is saying....good shot it keeps going east, but I would prefer that as opposed to having it remain in the MC. Forcing probably won't remain in the Modoki zone, but give me east-based forcing over the MC-hybrid crap. At least with the former there should be some windows and it will be active.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    The stagnation of the MJO on the lefthand side makes sense
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, one very good month is my thinking...maybe another averageish month if things break right.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I am not...at least not at this point in life. My focus is pretty concentrated around SNE snowfall and US cane threats. If the highlight of this winter is severe threats down south, my post count will be considerably lower than usual.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    What does ENSO state have to do with it? We know guidance has yet to catch up to the intensity of modern ridges because we just witnessed it last winter out west. ENSO state plays a role in dictating where the under-modeled ridging will set up, but it doesn't alter the fact that it is consistently under modeled. The whole "show me update data every season" is a cop out IMHO...the sky is blue, and I don't need data...either look upwards and check Google.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, this.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    He's saying that ridging is underestimated in this modern era, so where ever ridging is denoted, it's highly likely that seasonal guidance will be too cold and low with heights in that area...regardless of where it is.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    I get what you are saying...there is some hyperbole going on, but I also think that you should be a bit more measured with respect to your own tone, as well....while the position of that GOA low is more redolent of the stronger composite than the weak data set, it's also not very representative of the east-based composite, either. I would expect that the season would cool down beyond December extrapolating out. Weaker (left) vs Stronger (right) Modoki (Left), Basin-Wide (Center) vs East-Based (Right)
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Frankly, I hope you're right bc a record canonical El Niño is theoretically better for east coast winter enthusiasts than a hybrid MC oriented event. That being said, I'm not ready to bite off on that yet.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Main take away for me is it seems to be more characteristic of warm ENSO than 2023 was....granted it's probably still underestimating the MC competition, but the point is it's less than 2023, which is what I have been figuring. I don't think this winter will be as warm as 2023 in the east and I feel pretty good about saying that.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Obviously we aren't near peak in early July...goes without saying.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    That sounds fair....may actually help December to avoid being quite as exotically warm given somewhat less MC competition.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not where I am...it was an utter abomination....but I realize we could have easily had much more snow. The warmth is what it is.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    March hasn't seen the north Pacific flip that boreal winter has over the past couple of years...it keeps reverting to +WPO. Like I said before, this isn't ALL a product of CC, but I'm sure it helps.
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