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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I have to be honest...I'm taking it with a grain of salt at this stage, too....to be fair to Adam. If it still looks like that in October, then it may be time to take it more seriously.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, WPO was still + on the season technically per calculation, but no doubt there was more volatility this season. I think we are likely to see that continue.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Very clever ploy in editing in the shout out to me, so as not to exhaust 1/5th of your daily allotment of posts!! 'Cmon, dude....you know I'm not a JB.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I mentioned that in my March recap...there is often a bonafide Pacific trough regime about 10 days following PV splits. Showed up in two of my primary analogs: This split of the PV was then followed by a strong Pacific trough regime that resulted in record warmth about 7-10 days later, which was in fact very comparable to the sequence observed in the wake of the February 2018 analog-warming. This is same phenomenon also occurred to a somewhat lesser extent in 2001, as very warm temperatures with highs in the 50s also occurred on February 20th, 2001, which is 10 days subsequent to the February 11th, 2001 PV split.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Okay, this is what I focus on...the reversal, which is why 2023 didn't register with me. I know February 2023 had a reversal.....but wasn't under the impression that the 23-24 season did.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    1982-1983 is the only super El Nino that had kind of a favorable WPO, which is likely why the NE managed near normal snowfall. While I could see something like that, I do have a hard time envisioning a cold season.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Snowman must have missed that part of the seasonal forecast in his tweet regurgitation.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Chuck, I think I do recall some blocking during 2023-2024 now.....I remember Chris going on about how the se ridge was adjoining the NAO blocks that season, which is what killed us....likely a byproduct of the cool ENSO residue that persisted that season (RONI lagging ONI).
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Just harkens back to my point about the monthly tabular readings not providing an accurate portrayal all of the time.....you need to view the dailies because there were significant -WPO intervals this season, which is why it was so cold with more snow.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I understand that, but I simply didn't recall them...probably because they were useless.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I felt like it did, too, so the monthly numbers are incorrect?
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    It doesn't make sense to me, either...but those are the numbers.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/wp.data
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    2023 had an early late November/early December reversal??
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Ahhh...okay, thanks. This makes more sense, then. Chris is probably right.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Interesting....the other two early reversals were 1981 and 1968...the latter featured strong blocking throughout the season and the former had a blocky January.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    @bluewave I was stunned to see that this past season actually averaged +WPO (.44 DJFM)...I would have bet my life that it was -WPO, but only March was. December, January and February were marginally +WPO, but essentially neutral. Now I feel better about my previous work connecting +WPO to the more active jet, as this makes more sense. We had more variability this season, which is why it wasn't strongly positive like previous years in recent memory...this allowed for the cold, but the +WPO in the mean continued to correlate to a more active jet, which is likely why we only saw one major coastal. The big January event was a huge SWFE.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I have learned the hard way to not mock alternative viewpoints. I know I teased Chuck about the Cool ENSO following strong El Nino push back, but that was just because the data is supportive of it right now. He could ultimately be right, but we will need to confirm that posthumously...hence my sarcasm.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, everything was initially "bunk", until it wasn't. I have no issue with it, as long the presenter is transparent about it. He admitted it's a pioneer concept, but that doesn't necessarily mean that it's incorrect.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    All ribbing aside, I love the fact that you think outside of the box...I think that is necessary because if the "inner box" conceptualizations were working, we would have gleaned a modicum of skill with the seasonal forecasting arena.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    So it sounds pretty frontier and skeptical....but I am open to it.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yup...this is why I have theorized that we actually want a RONI equal to, or exceeding the ONI. The lagging RONI is indicative of competing cool ENSO AAM. This point it what was lost on me in 2015 and 2023.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, all of the strong El Nino events that worked out in terms of an active east coast winter had a pronounced period of NAO blocking...only real argument to be made is 2002, but that is significantly weaker than this event should be.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I haven't see any literature supporting a 2-3 month lag.
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