40/70 Benchmark

NAM is never, ever too warm in the mid levels. Not a good sign.

Yea, well there is a reason we are only getting like 2".

Never want LBSW or LBW.

And Euro. Skunked ULL....beware.

2am....eh.

It will nail it...always does.

I won't go in...I'm on ob duty tomorrow night...unless it looks lame, then I'll crash and work.

I am right at the N edge of that IP shield.

Looks like the GFS for ne MA...better central MA.

I am sick of being too aggressive with seasonal and storm forecasts...its a sign I need to be more conservative when signals are mixed.

That's why it's best to go light with the forecast.

That is a given.

From here on out, trends on that will be important.

Colder or warmer trend?

I feel good about my forecast for some accumulations here....I went with about 2-3" and even the EURO +SDC has me at 2".

Decent shot at second....which is Jan 16 at........ 3.5"

Apology not accepted.

This is nuts...literally razor's edge here.

I remember I posted earlier today that I was surprised we hadn't seen any runs take on a SWFE appeal as of yet...18z GFS just took care of that.

It's like Jan 7...I am staying up for that. If it looks like it will bust, then I'll just bail and pass out.

Look at that gradient from the N shore to my house...that would be nice payback for 12 5 2003 lol

They must have seen my map lol

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/04/final-call-for-messy-mid-week-storm.html No change from First Call.

Final Call for Messy Mid-Week Storm Primarily Rain & Sleet for the Region There have been no significant changes from the First Call issued on Monday with respect to the major storm system poised to impact the region from Wednesday into perhaps Thursday evening. There still looks to be a mixed bag of precipitation from roughly the Mass pike points northward and primarily rainfall to the south of the Mass pike. Synoptic Evolution: Two pieces of energy are ejecting over the northern and southern sides respectively of the Rex Block situated over the western CONUS and will continue to congeal for the balance of the day and into tonight. Ordinarily the meeting of energy so far to the west would entail a significant likelihood of the resultant low pressure area tracking inland. But since the energy is going to coalesce beneath the strong -NAO block to the north and be forced to the ENE it will exit the coast in the general vicinity of southern New England. However, given that the system will become so powerful over the midwest, it will still advect warmer air in the mid levels of the atmosphere to the north and into the region as the system makes its approach. And while it will eventually transfer energy to the coast, the system begins to lose strength beforehand. This will make it extremely difficult to maintain heavy enough precipitation for a long enough period of time to overcome what will be a marginally cold enough atmospheric column for snowfall across the region. This is apparent in the sounding for Lawrence, MA, which depicts the several hour window past midnight during which light to moderate snowfall accumulations may occur. This is also reflected by the fleeting period of maximum forcing, which traverses the area quickly prior to mid level dry air advecting in. Thus problematic time period will be after midnight and predawn early Thursday, which may negatively impact the morning commute, especially points north of route 2. Anticipated Storm Evolution: Light Rain will begin to break out Wednesday afternoon and evening. The lower levels of the atmosphere will become colder due to evaporational cooling working in conjunction with the loss of solar heating. However, warm air aloft will mean sleet as opposed to snowfall across northern areas initially during the evening. But the developing coastal storm should draw down enough cold air for the precipitation to transition to snowfall across northern areas as the heaviest burst moves in after midnight, especially given the absence of solar heating given that this will occur nocturnally. The precipitation should become more banded prior during the morning as the heaviest lift progresses north of the forecast area and drier mid level air is drawn in by the developing coastal low. Much of the precipitation that falls during the day on Thursday will be banded and of varying intensity, which coupled with the incoming April solar irradiance will greatly limit any additional snow and sleet accumulations inland. Snow and rain showers will linger into the day on Friday as the storm system well be very slow to exit the region as blizzard conditions persist across northern New England. In summary, the storm system is expected to grow very powerful so far to the west that it will advect in some warmer mid level air that will cause precipitation to begin as sleet and rain. There will then be competing forces, as dynamics will begin to be wane as the primary weakens only to be reinvigorated by the development of a secondary coastal system during the day on Thursday. However, given that the system will be impacting the forecast area during this time of transition, the dynamics necessary to overcome initial mid level warmth and April level of incoming solar irradiance during the day will be insufficient for an extended period of snowfall. Instead, expect light to perhaps moderate accumulations of snowfall during the predawn hours of Thursday AM, before drier mid level air causes precipitation to become more banded in nature by dawn on Thursday, which will struggle to accumulate during the daytime this late in the season. Final Call: First Call ( Issued Monday April 1 @ 1030AM): General Threat Assessment (Issued Saturday March 30 @ 6PM):

Poor choice of words perhaps...maybe measured or conservative would have been better, as I didn't intend to imply that there was any type of conscious effort or that the sentiment was emotionally driven.