40/70 Benchmark

I think if you want a big winter, the WPO is going to have be less severely positive than it has been....like 2017, for instance...which I believe may be the case.

First of all, I think the trend concerning the PDO is what is of most relevence with respect to sensible weather, not the absolute value. Secondly, the RONI is nearly dead-nuts on with 2013....and finally, I'm not sure the solar and statosphere differences are really that big of a deal. First of all, that was a very strongly +AO/NAO season, so that wasn't the main hemispheric driver, anyway. Additionally, I have written in great detail about how an easterly QBO near solar max isn't as hostile to episodes of high latitude blocking as some seem to think. We are probably going to see more arctic blocking than we did that year. Replica season? No....western Pacific is less favorable and CC has continued...but I see no reason why it can't be included in varuious seasonal composites, as it has been, and continues to be.

I can see in a practical sense, conversationally in an effort to convery how you feel the season will evolve, since most weather circles are privy with how each analog season behaved in terms of sensible weather. But as far as issuing a seasonal forecast, I agree 100%...my methodology is to use a composite and attempt to convey the element from each analog season that will be similar to the current season. This is important because one season may be a fantastic analog in one sense, but there are bound to be ways in which it is not..this harkens to what you were saying about the challenge in finding a replica season. Good luck-

Mirrors impact on winter storms. As a blogger, I like it....only care to write about big fish.

Another .63" today....1.85" 2 day total, 1.96" 3 day.

Yea, I'm not arguing any of that...but temps and 500mb heights are kind of a big deal. I mean, I nailed snowfall last season...but I was too warm....that can't be ignored.

Well, that is where we differ. I know in the past I have ostensibly nailed seasons, but always detract from the grade when I'm "right for the wrong reason". Agree to disagree. The forecast was wrong....it just so happen to be correct regarding low snowfall.

1.22" today.

It still got the pattern wrong, though...which is why it was too warm. I wouldn't consider it a win for those that forecasted a big winter for the mid atlantic during the 2015-2016 season, despite the fact that snowfall worked out. I'm not arguing your point about storm track, but the EURO seasonal was still a tremendously flawed forecast. I am willing to bet if we had less of a neg NAO last season, the northeast would have done better via more overrunning and SWFE snowfall, kind of like what we saw in February. I understand your point about increased reliance on Benchmark tracks in the NE, but some of that is due to SE Canada being warmer relative to other areas independent of CC. We saw that shift some last year and if se Canada is appreciably cold again, which I suspect that it will be, I would bet on more snowfall.

Did NOT get the pattern right, though.....suprised someone as meticulous as you would omit that.

Yes, this is what I have always said about climate models...they are biased towards stock ENSO.

I thought mine from last year was okay...not great, but not bad.

That guy and DirectWeather are at the top of my $hit list for ignoring.

By then heat is manageable....like mid March arctic bouts. Sun is modifying air masses at this point.

No, but better.

I agree. I also am keene on the idea of a mid winter SSW, for whatever that is worth...I know those are a mixed bag.

"Wake me up.....when September ends"....

Well, that's the thing....you go on so many snarky diatribes regarding how a viable winter outlook can be produced by copy and pasting the past 10 or so years, that it's tough to gauge where exactly you stand. Seriously, I would need to see a bit more than just this year.....my stance is if we make into the next decade in this same winter rut, then it's time to operate under the assumption that we've reached a tipping point, so to speak.

Probably similar.

Yea, normally September is so exciting....

6.32" JJA total here.

I agree for the most part, but I still think we could pull off a sub 1981-2010 climo. I think it would be a low return type of anomaly, but I don't think that ship has sailed quite yet. I may be wrong-

I don't think you are going to get pushback from anyone about how exceedingly difficult it is to get any season to finish below the longer term 1895-2000 climo...this is why I never use that climo base. It's not because I'm in denial about anything or trying to dissociate, but it's for the same reason that I don't begin every outlook by rehashing that the sky is blue.

Not too worried about that. Largest bias of climate models is to over-bake ENSO into the forecast, which should be weak. While I expect a +NAO, it's not going to be wall-to-wall IMO.