40/70 Benchmark

You have their data from March 2001?

I remember those vividly...had like 6" and then 8" to finish the best winter of my life in style.

I do know what you mean on that....unlike other disappointments, like 12-5-03, PD II, 1-29-22 and even 12/96 round two to a degree, I wasn't even close this time. I missed 2' by like 40 miles and the holy grail by like 60 miles. It was only awful because guidance got it up here, and then pulled away at the last moment.

Call it .75" here for a total.

B The fact that I can grade it that highly despite being grazed by an all-timer that ended the season prematurely speaks volumes to how much I appreciated the consistent cold and snowpack.

TBH, we probably would have been better served if it had been a canonical super El Nino, than the strong one that was tainted with cool ENSO residue.

I wasn't even being sarcastic...that's the best way I can describe how I reach my climo snowfall, which is respectable in the aggregate....I take turns getting sloppy-seconds from @dendriteand @TauntonBlizzard2013.

1/2" overnight in addition to the 1/4" yesterday. Please stop.

First 10 days or so I'm balls-deep in the outlook, anyway...then the last 20 days or so I'm just happy to be done and coasting to the holiday season.

Yea, weaker just allows for other influences to have more impact...which aren't necessarily cold influences. Weaker events are just colder on average because they aren't overwhelmingly strong east-based events, and thus have greater variability.

You need to understand why the index is reading what it does, and what it is trying to portray, just like any other index. 1972-1973 is actually a good comp given the -PDO. The only reason the RONi lagged the ONI in 2023 is because there were competing influences that actually made it warmer across the eastern US. "Weaker" is not necessarily "colder".

Take out that west warm pool and I think 2023-2024 would have been in line with the ONI, which was bordered on super-designation. The expression was partially stifled throughout the hemisphere.

I would argue that the 2023-2024 El Nino coupled, but it was partially masked by the prevailing west warm pool, so there was some mixed cool-ENSO like attributes to the pattern.

If El Nino doesn't become exceedingly strong, I wonder if we don't see this same type of warm west/cold east pattern stagnate into next season...a la a 2002-2003 type of warm ENSO.

I think wetter and warmer than this past winter in the NE is a good guess for next season.

Time to the subscriptions before the monthly violation.

Bit a coating starting when I left a couple of hours ago.

It began as snow around 6am when I left home.

Time for Kev to check out of S Wey

Looks like maybe up to an inch in a few spots Monday AM....back to check-out.

I hope it trends worse....last thing I want is to end up blogging for another marginal situation that doesn't produce. I'm content to be done.

That's how it looked here before the Monday cutter.

@WinterWolfalways appreciates these in-depth dives on the ramifications/feedbacks of CC.

If we all need to take a mulligan next winter to vanquish the west-warm pool once and for all, sign me up. Despite a very favorable northern Pacific and polar domain this past season, it was still like pulling teeth to get bonafide coastals ....really just the blizzard, which bent me over, anyway. The dearth of residence time and amplification of the MJO in phase continued, as well. That being said, I have always maintained that Mother Nature will find away to achieve balance, and perhaps the burgeoning El Niño is the vehicle through which said balance will be achieved. I'll begin assessing next season in earnest early this summer...but taking a breather for now.