40/70 Benchmark

Verification for Festive Sunday Snowfall Strong Forecast But Slightly too Conservative The season's first significant snowfall for the southeast coast of New England was identified at a very extended lead time using a combination of seasonal analogs, long range ensemble guidance and pattern recognition. In fact, forecast for the storm itself actually ended up being slightly too conservative. The 1-3" forecast for the central portion of the region worked out well, however, there were two primary problem areas with the overall forecast. The most obvious issue is that the 2-4" portion of the forecast over the southeastern quarter of the area actually verified in the 3-6" range, given amounts up to 5" over southwestern, Connecticut (Norwalk) and 6" on the outer half of cape cod (6" from Hyannis to Chatham). There is also a strong argument to be made that the western portion of the 1-3" area should have been extended slightly further to the north, as evidenced by the 3" total reported in Great Barington, MA in the southwestern corner of the state. This is a shortcoming that likely would have been alleviated had a follow up map been issued on Saturday, when it had become clear that the storm would track slightly further to the north. Final Grade: B+

You were hopeful for the days leading up to xmas just last night....

I think I went 19-29" for CPK.

Yea, we were on the same page. Glad it worked out..withstood the model waffles, when it looked meager on Friday, then beefed up last night...stayed the course.

1".

Not as it pertains to forecasting, which has an inherent element of subjectivity....unless you rip and read exclusively. There is also such an excess of data that it's easy to cherry pick.

1" here....about as expected.

@jbenedetThe beauty of blogspot, as archaic and unsophisticated as it may be, is that is provides a written account of my predications....I've largely nailed the progression of the month, and was actually far too WARM. I think I need a new pair of snow covered goggles....

In fact, the proverbial "Grinch Storm" is more likely than not. A Pacific trough should begin to evolve towards the end of the month in conjunction with a rather stout PV, as a mild pattern ensues to ring in 2026. The month of December will average near normal, anywhere from -1F to +1F, except near normal to +2F across the middle Atlantic.

Hopefully after harassing you the other day, @jbenedet can Sey-Mour reason for optimism moving forward.

I like to think of posters as I do model guidance...they all have biases, you just have to learn to accept that and elicit whatever value there is to glean from them. You aren't going to "fix" their biases....all it is going to do is foster underlying tension that will create distractions, and detract from the quality of the forum dialogue. Adam does seem like a smart guy....sure, his contributions are decidedly one-sided, but if you understand that, he does offer plenty of value.

I don't always see eye to eye with snowman, but he is reasonably pleasant for the most part. He can have an edge to him, though.

I'll just take your word for it and hit the hay.

GFS gives me 3.3"....really seems to hit the inverted trough hard over eastern areas at the expense of the CT RV.

Wow...3", that would narrowly beat the 12/2 deal.

Too bad me missed you, John. Maybe next time.

I bet some of us get most of our accumulations from the inverted nonsense later on....I think that may happen here.

Wow, 18z EURO with 2.2" here...where do I sign??

Fine with me, as I'm missing tomorrow, anyway.

-5 anomaly with 40* being climo.

That's like mid-upper 30's here.

I have noticed those national guys like to ignore the NE...just like when we have an arctic plunge into the center of the country that only produces pedestrian cold here, as we have so many times over the past decade.....all we hear about is how epic the airmass is. Inverse here.

My, how we've missed you-

Waste of bandwidth.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/12/festive-light-snowfall-likely-sunday.html