I don't understand how fast flow in-and-of-itself would favor one longitude for phasing over another. Now, what I do understand is why tropical forcing overlayed onto said speed-of-flow increase may do that.
In the end I think something like that is what will take place, Steve...this system isn't going to evaporate, or go to Bermuda, but it will be so close, yet so far away.
Yea, real PIA. Normally I may ignore something like this, or perhaps just a brief mention on social media, but since these deals are in such rapid succession I had to.
I mean, what else is there.....but to say expectations should be kept in check is an understatemement.
I still think we will pull a good event or two in March.
I don't entirely agree because I referenced the 06z and 12z European sites from yesterday, which also had the confluence and did not have a big NE US impact.
I referenced that confluece N of ME in my write up...although the ridging out west had trended better, that confluence has trended enough in the other direction to negate. ..other guidance was missing that.