Jump to content

40/70 Benchmark

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    79,710

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    More often than not, sure...but as you know, there are shorter-term deviations from the longer term seasonal mean. On Tuesday December 23rd, 1997 - A snowstorm was forecasted to be fast-moving and produce light snow across New England slowed down and intensified dumping nearly two feet on some parts of the regio
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    1997-1998 was more favorable early on because it was unique in the sense that occurred during a strong easterly QBO in conjunction with the low and ascending portion of the solar cycle. This season will undoubtedly be more hostile early on, but probably more favorable later in the season given the westerly QBO/descending solar that is far more common during intense episodes of warm ENSO.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    How did this one work out in SNE?
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm surprised, usually low pressure over SE Canada works out well on the east coast.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's also important not to be too dialectical in our thought process, as it's human instinct to focus on snow/rain as binary events, but the truth is that in all likelihood they often won't be this season. Several 2-5"ers followed by IP and rain still counts towards the seasonal total.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    That would make sense to me and is consistent with my forecast.....RONI should still lag in the seasonal mean by around .2 to .4, but may get closer than that late.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, that is precisely what I was intimating in my write-up.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I saw that...he's swinging in towards my early hedge. Usually he likes to tout a more rapid weakening of El Nino amongst data, but I don't think that is the case, so it's probably the EURO in general looking snowier.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    All guidance has a weak PV....check out the UK data. Blocking in a stronger El Nino isn't too surprising, but it is given the state of the stratosphere and solar cycle....I still feel like it's overdone in the seasonal mean, but I have no issue with a blocky second half overall.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, I think that it definitely part of it, but some more than others...I think it's also important to view the RONI relative to the ONI, rather than in a vacuum. A crude, but effective way to distinguish these more recent MC oriented El Nino seasons is to utilize the delta between the RONI, which separates ENSO-related warming from general background warming attributable to climate change, and the ONI. The positive ONI/RONI ratio in the four most recent El Nino seasons, which denotes a RONI lagging the ONI, is indicative of surplus of warmth over the western Pacific relative to the eastern Pacific, which is the very essence of the mechanism that focuses the convection there. Notice how the ONI and RONI are equal in 1997 and the ONI is actually higher in 1986-1987. However, in 2016, the RONI is significantly lower and the spread is even greater in 2023, with a RONI value .6 lower than than the ONI. ONI RONI RATIO 2023: 2.1 1.5 0.6 2018 1.1 0.8 0.3 2016 2.8 2.4 0.4 2014 0.8 0.6 0.2 2009 1.6 1.6 0.0 2006 0.9 0.9 0.0 2004 0.7 0.9 -0.2 2002 1.3 1.5 -0.2 1997 2.4 2.4 0.0 1994 1.1 1.4 -0.3 1991 1.7 2.3 -0.6 1987 1.7 1.6 -0.1
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I have it falling just short.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    31.1 this AM....fake cold, real frost.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Which part did CC contribute to? All of it....the sole purpose of ENSO is to redistribute heat, so the rapid warming of the climate is acutely relevant in that respect.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    That climate change isn't playing a part in this El Nino...the immense OHC that has built up in the west Pacific has absolutely played a rpole in trggiering this response.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    They why did the 2023 El Niño have a very meager GOA low presence despite a peak ONI of 2.0?
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    No to the first, but as far as as the second....not the RONI itself, but the disconnect that it represents may to an extent...and that doesn't necessarily mean colder in the east, either.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looks about the same for me....about 15" below average seems reasonable. No complaints.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    https://forecastmaven.com/forecasts/easternmassweather/isaias-poses-imminent-threat-to-gulf-coast-by-early-saturday-am-as-first-hurrica/ Isaias First Call:
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Ah...didn't know about antecedent conditions...
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think that is implicit in the tone of the NHC public products, but yea...I mean, it won't even matter in terms of surge.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Lilly is about the most profound example that I can recall...went from about 145mph to 100mph upon LF near the TX/LA border in 2002.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's easy to grow complacent and fall victim to recency bias, and I know we have had some feast right up to the shore in the gulf of late, but I don't think this is Michael.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not to undermine hydro concerns, which will be plentiful near the shore, but hopefully progressive enough to limit freshwater flooding.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Strikes me as one of those N GOM collapse-deals, like Opal or Ivan....
×
×
  • Create New...