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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, it had some favorable traits.....it was basin-wide, not east based, but if it were a bit weaker we may have been able to prevent that warmth in the east that ultimately sank our battle ship. There was probably some bad luck there, too....so I see what you are saying about being too literal. I probably oversimplified it due to the perfunctory nature of the dialogue to prove a point. I'm more nuanced in the actual analysis.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes. I will grant you that 1991 could have ended up a but better than it did, but there was definitely still a god bit of warmth to the east that raised the probability of the shit outcome that we had.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Like I said, too much warmth.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right....events that strong always have warmth in region 1.2. Okay.....I get that. But that doesn't make me wrong....good luck getting one that doesn't.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    That is a composite only a mother could love.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Exceptionally strong....I don't argue 1.5-2.0 can be favorable.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Maybe I'm wrong...but until I see data to the contrary, I will feel as though extremely strong ENSO is hostile for high latitude blocking.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right....on average.....exceptionally strong events aren't average.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    No, I'm not "stuck"....what I do know is there is literal dearth of high latitude blocking when ENSO is exceptionally powerful, and I don't think that's a coincidence. Okay, the sample size is small....but it still is what it is.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would prefer it a bit weaker...but I don't doubt we could have had a good interlude(s) if the polar domain were not so hostile. I compare all of these analogs with a fine-tooth comb this summer and fall.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree 100%.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Orientation doesn't matter much for weak events, either.....much more disparity in weak events....ie east-based events that were colder, and west-based that were warmer.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not counting one KU in the mid Atlantic....I mean above average snowfall throughout the NE and colder than average.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think it's a combination of the fact that there is so much excess heat in extreme warm ENSO, and it impacts the Atlantic STJ in such a manner that is very hostile to high latitude blocking. I'd have to look back at the research to double check..been a minute.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I knew you would call sample size Well, once we get a big NE winter with a 2.1+ El Niño, I'll capitulate.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    No argument there....highly doubt it averages negative for the season next year.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm not arguing the pattern doesn't look different....I'm arguing it doesn't really matter if ENSO gets that powerful.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    No, until you find me a +ENSO north of 2.0 that offered a favorable outcome for winter enthusiasts, it's factual.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Most strong El Niño events give you +PNA....excessively strong El Ninio usually has a dearth if high. latitude blocking.....again, not surprising.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    NAO is probably going to be crucial this year, assuming ENSO does remain at or below 2.0, which I believe that it will.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looking a the data, 2.0 is a pretty crucial threshold....you still have a fighting chance until you get over 2.0, then it's lights out. 1957 halted right at 2.0.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't understand why it's so surprising that 1991-1992 was warm because it was such a a powerful El Niño, hardly weaker than 2015. It doesn't matter whether it's east or west when it gets over 2.0. It was significantly more powerful than 2009 and 2002.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Just going by climo...not the depiction. Didn't look.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    My area is likely porked......maybe CT is okay.
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