Take a look at weak El Niños versus stronger back throughout history.......2014, 2004, 1977, 1976, 1968...all weak and NE winters. 2015, 2009, 2002, 1986, 1982, 1957...those stronger ones get the mid Atlantic.
You are 100% WRONG....weak El Niño is best in SNE because the STJ is less pronounced....that is the reason I nailed that winter in my first outlook. I looked at ENSO as said with would be a SNE winter.
I give this winter a solid "B" so far.....can't give it an "A" being at normal snowfall after getting boned on the '78 redux. Let's see what can. happen during the final stanza to move this up...
This, combined with the 50-75 shift south, is what killed me. This is a lesson that I'll take from this.....that band set up over ORH CO into S NH just like I thought it would, but it just wasn't very impressive. I think jan 2022 was like that , too. Could you provide a graphic to illustrate this?
Thanks in advance. I need to get better at band/fronto diagnostics. I am too weak with that.
Mid March is okay where I live...but too late for most..late March is even pushing it for me. May just be more like. final warming, similar to last year....too bad my the period earlier this month didn't end up working out like I had though. Our best bet would be getting this to be a "top-down" type of event, in which effects are virtually immediate.
I'm not like the @raindancewx guy, who had most of the snow away from the east coast. Glad I went at least normal to somewhat above for snowfall on the east coast. I used 2014 as a seasonal analog and 2015 as a +TNH analog because I thought it would be really fucking snowy where 95% of us live in winter 2025-2026. Now we really have a "smiley face".
Why? Did you see that band? How much did you get? At least this wasn't a mess-screw for me like Dec 2003, PD II and Jan 22....the storm was just to far south, This looks like a mess-screw for you, which is infuriating.
Well, congrats to those who got the goods. I obviously can't control the storm , but I can control how I react to it. I at least had the courtesy to remove myself from the thread and sleep in to spare you all the incessant bitching that I'm sure you subjected to by Cory.
This was a rare shot not only to experience a 3 foot+ event, which I had never done, but with an antecedent pack of over foot.
Sucks-
Me, too....I just can't win....and it has nothing to do with any geographical limitations of my locale...it's just absolute buzzard's luck.
That CT band I though could translate here, and it just redeveloped se of me.
Funny....when the QPF is south of me, I get fucked.....but when I'm in the QPF bullseye, the band ends up over Dendrite. I just can't win...should just stop hoping.