40/70 Benchmark

I started pretty negatively last year, too, but the latter portion of the calculation swayed it...see what happens this year.

You mean the QBO is oscillating back and forth from westerly to easterly...must be CC!! JK

The 1960s being much colder than the 2010s is definitely attributable to a combo of both CC and the AMO (- vs +).

One thing I will say is that the 2015-2016 winter was much milder and less wintry overall, aside from the mid atl blizzard, then the 1957-1958 el nino....I am sure CC plays a role there maybe, but the former event was also simply stronger, too. Again, possibly due to CC.....that is reasonable.

Exactly...I agree, but listen...maybe Chris is right...I am willing to wait and see and I will change my mind if we are still sporting a negtive PDO in 7-10 years. But I don't see why the default baseline should be some radical change to the global circulation and multidecadal patterns. The climate/meteorology community should remain open to that possibility as scientists, but it should not be assumed at this juncture given the info that I have just presented.

If we get well into the next decade still in a west Pac dominate -PDO, then its time to reconsider.

Like I have been saying, its not rocket science....we are right on track for a phase switch around the turn of the decade.....the last cold phase was from 1945-1977 and that's 32 years. 32 years from the onset of this current phase in 1998 is 2030. As you can see, there have always been ENSO triggered deviations from the predominate multi decadal baseline going back throughout history. Notice also that the last major el nino during a cold phase was 1972-1973, also several years before the flip during the nadir of the second wave of the cold phase....just like 2023-2023. Its not some evoloutionary concept...its simply warmer while the same shit happens.

God, I love June weather dialogue....

49.5 last night.

This is why I have been quietly cheer it on.....nothing we can do about the dews, but the smoke may cap the heat a bit.

I think last winter was a sign of change, but its probably going to be an incremental, two steps forward, one step backwards kind of deal. ...

I had a quick hitting 7"er very late xmas eve into early Xmas AM 2017.

Simlar totals, but December 1996 occureed over two successive events in close proximity....Dec 1997 was just one event. The follow up one in Dec 1996 was mainly rain on the coastal plane.

I would love to get a slow moving HECS that breaks out around noon on Xmas eve and rages into Xmas night....been teased a couple of times, but no dice.

The only redealming event that I had that season was a couple of days before Xmas....there was an explosive storm on 12/23/97 that produced insane rates and dropped 1-2' around the area. Ayer, MA has 8" in one hour.

I had about normal snowfall in 82-83, in large part thanks to the Megalopolis system.

Yea, 45.1 here, too.

I was speaking of that winter in a NE US context, but it makes sense that it wasn't as bad in the GL region....that set up isn't as hostile there.

Yes, the winter overall sucked. You are in the mid atl, I assume?

Yes, but it was more widespread in that system because it was occluded, so there was just narrow area near the coast that got creamed under the low level deformation.

I don't think strong El Ninos are the catalyst for global warming, rather I just think global warming manifests most prominetly during high-end warm ENSO events.

PD II was just bad luck...I was in a subsidence area of around a foot.

It will never end well in the NE US for fans of winter when you have death-star vortex INVO Alaska and the Bering Sea...never has, never will...I don't care which climate era you are in.

Eh....the Xmas event occured later in the Xmas day and was heavily tained with IP for me, and I got crewed in PD II. That winter was good, but left a lot on the table.

This would have been a slightly cooler shitty winter in 1898-1899...people get carried away with the CC crap. It was a bad pattern, regardless of the warming climate. +WPO/+EPO/+AO+NAO/-PNA/-PDO and a strong modoki La Nina, but sure...lets focus on CC. That season was an instruction manual on how to avert winter in the NE US.