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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. I'm always leery of predicating any forecast on phase 8 until at minuscule lead time....it's become a unicorn since the west Pacific warmed.
  2. Yes, this is what I have been saying, which is why it's important to get ample mid level dynamics on the interior CP.
  3. I think it's more IP/dry slot risk, at least off of the cape...but we aren't quite there yet.
  4. I will get pounded for this, but I'll take the March 2001 risks as opposed to what was modeled......
  5. He has, but to TBH, it's a pretty different landscape from what his looked like 2 days ago.
  6. I think this is still in flux, but I won't begin my deep dive until tomorrow.
  7. Boris, I kind of feel as though that evolution is akin to an inverted trough in that while it is not physically implausible to be the final outcome, it's more likely to a provisional solution as the model attempts to reconcile previous depictions of the evolution with what will actually happen.
  8. Primaries into OH make my trousers unfold down my leg
  9. I wonder what CoastalWx thinks of this ass sniffing!!!
  10. Very strong trends inside of hr 120 can't be ignored....doesn't mean we are getting a blizzard, but if it were to happen, this is how things would be trending.
  11. I'm not locking anything, but I mean I'm intrigued.
  12. I was thinking more of the PNA TBH....I mean, maybe the subsurface is helping the STJ perk up, but I still disagree with the notion that La Niña is collapsing. There are plenty of metrics that suggest otherwise.
  13. I wouldn't be surprised if it didn't until Thursday or Friday.
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