40/70 Benchmark

I still think we see a strong +NAO stretch in January, which will lead into a period of +TNH later in the month.

Yes, this is still my thought process.

Hopefully I'm wrong about that timeframe, but yea....too early to tell yet.

Not to mention that isn't what you should be hoping for on the coast in mid December.

1.6 for the low here. Haven't cracked zero yet.

I feel fine with it. Probably get most a few inches.

Love that gradient...I think this is where things break right.

Exactly my thoughts....but, yea...not there yet.

I think it has a warning ceiling.

Nah.

Southeast ridge and it's army of MC MJO phases...."I'll be back".

If it's not going to snow either way, I'd prefer it warm up latter December, in order to avoid parting ways with my seasonal.

Is that the AI?

We're gonna have to get Tip's jet to slow down for you to find the Tylenol.

I know I went out on a limb with the mid-month call, but I still think something should pop in that timeframe prior to any warm up. I'm not talking about a blizzard...just a plowable event for a good portion of the area.

He is speaking of the faster flow in general, which has interfered with phasing attempts and sustained PNA ridges...this promotes predominately inland and suppressed tracks. I def. think there is also some bad luck involved...but a bit of both IMO. Perfect shit storm.

What? I don't think I'm one to jump prematurely...all I said was significant snow likely around mid month....to me, "significant " is like greater than 3".

It's beyond that...we're passed that.

Give it time...most of the great months of December hadn't gotten started yet.

Huh?? Didn't you see the MJO phase 8 and SSW??

Yes, it is...totally fair.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/12/significant-snows-likely-on-horizon-mid.html

Significant Snows Likely On Horizon Mid-Month Multi-ensemble, Teleconnection & Analog Consensus Guidance Flagging Mid-Month For Winter Storm Threat Although much of Eastern Mass largely missed out on last week's snowfall, there is an emergent signal out around mid-month, or more specifically, Saturday the 13th. While specifics are still several days from coming into focus, all three major ensemble suites are signaling some sort of potential. The general layout of the pattern is consistent amongst all three camps, with an amplifying trough along the east coast, some sort of a ridge over the western CONUS, cold rolling over a stout -WPO ridge. and a -NAO acting to slow the flow down slightly and lock the antecedent cold into place. Obviously this does not guarantee a major winter storm, never mind one that will focus its' wrath on the forecast area, but this threat period does have support on a larger hemispheric, and seasonal scale. Telconnector Convergence & Analogs Affirm Modeled Threat Period There exists a major misconceptualization among laymen, and even weather circles alike, that it is specific index modes that favor heightened risks of storminess, ie -WPO, EPO or AO, but it is actually the modularity, or movement, of these atmospheric teleconnections that trigger storminess, rather than any specific mode itself. This is due to the fact that the shifting of major teleconnections represents mass flux within the hemisphere, which engenders an elevated risk of storminess owed to colliding air masses and shifting pressure patterns. This is what is signaled to at least some degree in the upper latitudes late next week. Note that the East Pacific, West Pacific and Arctic oscillations are all in descent, with each reaching a nadir in the vicinity of December 13th, which represents a fairly significant storm signal. This also coincides with the time frame during the second week of December that was identified in the Winter Outlook as the favored window of time for the first significant snowfall of the season for much of the forecast area. The mid-December timeframe is also consistent with the majority of the December analogs, as 4/7 seasons (2017, 2008, 2007, 1970) featured the first widespread significant snowfall for Eastern Mass during either the second of third week of December. Stay tuned for updates throughout the week-

I won't event look at an OP until like Tuesday.

I don't need to look at guidance....just posters. I know what is going on by who reacts, and how.