40/70 Benchmark

February will be colder than January.

Agree on big coastal storms, but that doesn't necessarily preclude snow, period...

Going by that MJO progression, we should pop a steep gradient with a ridge over the south and lower heights in the EPO domain mid month.... Followed by a visit from the PV in SE Canada in conjunction with a PNA ridge.

My guess is phase 7 will do...Jan 23-24.

Kind of like how the PNA last January was biased west, off of the west coast, so on paper it looked good...but found a way to bone us. Seems like every time mother nature throws us a bone, it's a cookie laced with cyanide.....poison pill decade.

My edit to this statement: I think the whopper persistent -WPO hybrid has been suppressing the MJO from COHERENTLY propagating out of the marine sub-c. It has been denoted as being in phase 8 on several occasions throughout December, but if you viewed the hovmoller of vp, the wave was fragmented with some parcels remaining in the MC. Those MJO plots can be misleading...I have learned to rely more on the hovmoller to see what is actually happening. It's analogous to how actually playing out the H5 plot is more illuminating than simply looking at teleconnections. I actually did mention this in one of my write-ups.

Sensible weather wise, it is a lot like the 80s...clippers, front-enders and cold/dry blend....but that was a +PDO era that didn't yet have the CC footprint. Different means to a similar result.

My theory on that was the west warm pool favoring the MC phases, but I don't think that is as large of an issue this season with the MJO being mostly neutral and the WPO deeply negative....

Honest question....if the CC footprint only on the east coast?? Why are systems amplifying with reckless abandon over the lakes and near the Maritimes??

TBH, when it's like this? I am, too. The wind ushering brutal cold and a couple of 1-2" road-salt inducing sieges per week gets old, and fast, as soon as that ball lands in Times square.

I highly doubt my new climo is 37", dude....it's a bad stretch exacerbated by CC, I'm sure.

I'm sure when one finally amplifies, it will go through the finger lakes, followed by one that explodes in the Maritimes...like clockwork-

I've minimized on ever event except the 12/23 deal, which salvaged both my white xmas and sanity.

Yea, IDK....the seasonal map that I have seen posted has us at about exactly 8.5", as well....either you undermeasured a bit, or your street got porked.

Hopefully the mid-month coastal works out, but I've never been too keen on that.

I haven't touched the last two 1/4"ers.....my driveway is in the shade, so half of it has just kind of sublimated away.

Well, last February wasn't really warm....I don't think this February will torch, either.....the cold from latter January will likely spill into February, then warm up for a time, but the stratosphere this year is a lot more favorable for a later ending than it was last season. If you recall, I was all over a fast end last season...I don't see that this year. No guarantees, but the cards are stacked more in our favor this year to drag winter out.

Well shy, but I'm just saying, it's not doubtful that we are going to get a decent stretch or three along the way because we only have 8.5" now. . We could get 30" more and it would still be a terrible season in the aggregate.

Yea, I think it will be like that early February stretch, but will probably last longer.

Totally.....I would much rather worry about precip type, then watch Kev rejoice over the 2" every 3 days.

I don't think I'll need it......I mean, we aren't finishing the season with 10"...as bad as this stretch has been, we've been over 30" every year and I expect to do that, and then some with ease this year.

The gateway to hell has seemed to be about Derry, NH....north of there, there is usually enough moisture and cold to snow....but south of there has perpetually lacked.

I think it looks good later this month for consistent winter with some warning events....I don't like it for huge snow bombs.

I will say, the ability of mother nature to cram every orifice from just about every angle with a multitude of home improvement appliances this decade has been impressive. La Nina (mostly), El Nino, -AO, +AO, - NAO, +NAO, +PNA, -PNA, +EPO, -EPO, -WPO, +WPO, cold, warm...the one constant has been a remarkable dearth of snowfall anywhere within about 50 miles of the ocean, east of I 495 and south of rt 2 in SNE. The only good news is that we have paid our dues.....20's, 50's, 80's, 2020's......get it out of the way now and hopefully not have to grab my ankles for 10 consecutive years again until I'm no longer lucid enough to realize how badly it sucks.