40/70 Benchmark

Long Duration & High Impact Winter Storm Likely Sunday Through Monday Cancellations Likely Monday & Delays Possible Into Tuesday Times They Are A-Changin' Eastern Mass Weather offered insight into what was likely to a severe latter half of January on Monday, however, at that time it appeared as though the system next weekend into early next week may not be a major player in our weather. Well, that is not longer the came to put it mildly, and here is why. Synoptic Overview The primary trend amongst guidance this week has been for the two pieces of energy destined to comprise our storm to phase much earlier than originally forecast. This has major implications on the forecast late Sunday into Monday because the earlier phase out in the nation's mid section induces southwest flow aloft over the eastern portion of the country, which induces a moisture-laden, southwest flow in advance of this system raise heights. This not only allows the storm to track further to the north and closer to New England, but it also forces warmer, moist air to flow over top of the arctic dome that will infiltrate the area this weekend, which will enhance precipitation. As it strands now, the combination of the polar vortex, -NAO block and 50/50 low to the north that had been previously expected to limit the impact of the storm now merely ensures that it will remain mostly snow, rather than change to rain across a larger portion of the area due to a track much further inland. The latter is normally a risk with a phase this early, but in this instance, the pattern will simply now allow that to occur. Expected Storm Evolution Snowfall should begin moving into southwestern Connecticut from the tri-state area early Sunday morning. It will then rapidly overspread the rest of the area by noon. Snow should grow heavier fairly quickly throughout the afternoon, as is often the case when abundant moisture overruns an antecedent arctic dome, so travelers returning from Patriot's AFC title game parties should beware of deteriorating road conditions. More of an onshore flow will develop Sunday evening with the storm making a closer pass, which will cause a coastal front to form over eastern Mass, potentially enhancing snowfall along and immediately poleward of this boundary as a result of increased lift due to the interaction of the marine layer with the arctic air over the interior. Deeper into this marine airmass, snow will mix with and change to rain over at least the outer cape and islands by midnight Sunday night, but not before several inches of snow have already fallen. Although the initial push of warm air advection snowfall will likely be heavier to the south of the Mass pike, northern locations will play catch up during Monday morning, as the energy from the primary system over upstate New York begins transferring to the developing coastal low passing off of cape cod. The Monday morning commute will be worst from Boston points north, and best over the cape and islands. Just how prolific and protracted this second phase will be depends on how quickly the redevelopment of the mid level low can occur, which will trigger a deep easterly inflow on the northern side of the system, off of the warmer ocean and over the arctic air in place. This may promote a burst of snowfall over the deep interior during the afternoon on Monday. Snowfall should finally taper off by Monday evening, with any residual precipitation ending as snow showers over the cape and islands with colder air rushing back in. Precipitation should move out by the predawn hours of Tuesday AM, but be prepared for some delays on Tuesday due to the large amounts of snow that will have fallen. Look for a Final update on. Saturday- First Call:

Hopefully one of my 4 ends up caring enough for me to bun them in like 2030.

You need to block dad, dude.

EURO has been hinting at a 1/7/24 type band placement...not that it screws anyone else, so don't throw laptops at me.

Yea, just open up today...one and all, right in the kissah

Maybe N trend has stabilized.

National Blend

I doubt you get 20"....maybe 15-17".

If I were him, I would do it because of 1) How established he already is. 2) How long it's been...but maybe next week ends up better lol

Homeostasis is a powerful mechanism...misery is preferred if it's what you know.

Get home.

Yep...right off of the ORH hills....adiaphallic heating.

I was going to do the Eastern Mass Weather First Call header and all, but time at a premium lol

Yes

Yes...it fell and sublimated/compacted, which are every bit as valid of physical processes as melting. Did it fall if it melts?

Got my ranges...just need to get the time to draw everything up.

It's laziness and sensationalism all tied into one terd.

Pretty much.

Yup. This is why my 2018 measurement got tossed. My new practice in these events is to report storm snowfall and depth.

Yea, not my map...just trying to rationalize. Wankum is awful...you know my thoughts on him.

It's a broadbrush cover you ass preliminary assessment.

Easterly inflow @ 850 over that airmass? Take 'em up.

Same page.

Said the same, exact thing to myself last night, as I sat naked at the dinning room table gathering my thoughts after the fam was in bed.

Maybe conceivably impact south of about I 84 even...but I think pike is safe.