40/70 Benchmark

Agree.

2012-2013 is actually another example of a third year cool ENSO event...again, cool-neutral ENSO that continues the theme of weaker having a happy ending, so I will be watching for more sign of that later this fall.

Another thing to watch is kind of tied into it remaining weak, but if we see a rapid demise of la nina, it could lead to some increased variability late in the season. A couple of the triple-decker cool ENSO analogs had late season blocking, namely 1957 (cool neutral ENSO) and 2001 (weak modoki la nina). 1976 (strong and basin-wide) did not, possibly because it was a much stronger la nina.

La nina remaining weaker and or east-based for a higher likelihood of seeing intervals of poleward Aleutian ridging like last year. Its early, but right now I am pretty confident that la nina will be more basin wide than last season, so it will need to remain relatively weak in order to provide us with the greatest likelihood of some Pacific variability (favorable interludes). I think a "big winter" is pretty unlikely this year, but you def. want it to remain weak if it isn't going to be very east based in order to have a shot at that.

You should come to learn that anything @snowman19 posts is supportive of a milder winter ....if you see him mention a bottle of Windex in the winter thread, you don't need to know why, but just know that it's somehow correlated to a shitty winter.

That Canadian graphic screams +NAO to me...no shock there.

Happens every season....always a few posters who get carried away with ENSO and include hyper-verbiage in every post referencing anything associated with it...when the dust settles, any moderate peak will be early on and it will be weak for the vast majority of boreal winter 2022-2023.

I feel like this will be one of those relatively inactive seasons that will leave quite an impression, nonetheless....it only takes a storm or two, and the heat ridge ultimately retrogressing is going to leave the east coast vulnerable later August into September.

I had 12 days of 90+ during July and a mere 1.41" of rain.

Agree.

Ricky?

Well, I average about 63" 2018-2019 I had about 48" 2019-2020 About 44" 2020-2021 Like 53" 2021-2022 Last year was like 46"

I know Cosgrove is favoring some east coast activity later this season...we'll see. That is always a long shot, but following his musings for a few years and he has been about as skilled as they come.

Save the precip for December.

I've been in a rough patch locally for several years now, despite the region as a whole doing okay....I haven't sniffed normal seasonal snowfall since 2017-2018.

I would agree that nothing is in favor of a big season down there, but I don't think you should necessarily be absolutely resigned to a horrendous season, either. I mean, if you feel you need to in order to mentally prepare yourself, I get it....but a pretty average season is well within the realm of plausibility....too early to tell. But like I said, I would be surprised if you guys didn't kill it in 2023-2024...in all seriousness. Anything this season is gravy.

Its borderline weak/moderate.

I agree.

I had .22" in a brief downpour last night.

We need to develop the RPI....figure out a domain space for this Rectal Plague Index and use it as a measure of the probability of Tip's loved one(s) finding him swinging in his closet.

Fall is the most viable period for the tropics and by then I am immersed in winter outlook attributed data.

I get the hatred of spring, but for me the intense sun and sweltering heat is worse than 50 and drizzle. Summer is definitely the most boring weather, too....spring has a mix of the occasional snow threat, faux severe deals, and backdoor tracking, etc.....summer is too early for the tropics around here and is just tracking 62 vs 71 degree dews. along with the faux severe ghosts....just brutal.

For me its: WINTER FALL Spring Summer

You like summer most?

I have a pretty good amount of down time at work if there are no crises, which is the norm.