40/70 Benchmark

Eh....I may gave a quick rub n tug...

Must be CC.

This would have been an awesome event in winter....I would have had 20", while Scooter had 5" of slush. Dendrite would have had a 30" deform band.

I'm just joking...kind of, but its honestly true....tough to go wrong assuming -PDO and la Nina.

To me there is a difference between cloudy with showers, and pouring rains with 50mph gusts, but yea...neither day is particularly conducive to rounds of naked corn hole....no.

I think today is worst, and slow climb starting tomorrow.

Yes, absolutely....even Boston would have some issues.

Except a -PDO and cool ENSO

This system would have crushed interior SNE, including my area.

SNE did significantly better in the former....near average snowfall in 2016-2017.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/05/modest-cool-enso-influences-may-persist.html

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/05/modest-cool-enso-influences-may-persist.html

May have some of that with the weenie out and all...

I don't think there is enough booze to make the past 7 years palatable.

Keep in mind when I say "weak El Nino", that is a broad, general classification of the protptypical weak El Nino paradigm....once we actually get into the season, I will dig in more...obviously if we still have a Pacific cold phase/-RONI, then it probably wouldn't work. I incorporate all of that later in the fall. Yea, 2018-2019 was a tough one...I went big that season, but the early Jan SSW (focused on other side of globe) just served to lock the residual MC forcing from prior cool ENSO into place. This was also evident by the very paltry mid season MEI. El Nino wasn't running the show.

Interesting that the Euro and Aussie have a warm neutral.....hasn't the EURO been running hot for ENSO?

Unfortunately.

"The weight doesn't bother me, she has a pretty face and a beautiful heart"

Rise and shine, Allison

I would still prefer a more meager El Nino....I am far enough north where I still want a good deal of N steam involvement, or it ends up occluded after a mid atl snowmaggedon.

I think given (potentially) ENSO neutral this coming season, you have weight things towards modest cool ENSO.

We need to cool off the west Pac....or at least relative to the east Pac...the ratio right now (warmer west/cool east) predisposes us to a cool ENSO paradigm...that is why we have been having problems on the east coast due to se ridges and strong jets obliterating PNA ridges. That is cool ENSO like. I think we actually agree on alot, but just emphasize different aspects and drivers.

Man, @bluewave that link is an absolute pants tent.....you always casually pull these elite data sources out of your rear...too bad you never use your power for good, instead of in support of trying to convince us all that the Pacfic Jet is about to eat us.

The reality is that more often than not, there is a flaw in the pattern that will prevent a major snowstorm on the east coast...that is why averages are not higher. Its not always attributable to CC, but obviously that is becoming more of a factor. There are also times when nothing is ostensibly "wrong" with the pattern and it turns out that an act of god simply wasn't on the calendar....that can happen, too....this is why snowfall is subject to such a large degree of variance and is so difficult to predict. Mother nature is not bound by any of our rules...if she doesn't want to play ball, then she simply won't- Sometimes the reason why is apparent, other times not so much.

First of all, in the mean the WPO was very positive last season...that can't be dismissed. Secondly, the NAO was very positive througout February....thirdly, even during any brief instances during which the WPO and NAO were favorable, the PNA ridge was OFF of the west coast. Sorry, that wouldn't work in 1925, either. 2013-2014 had a vastly different Western Pacific...very +WPO. Now, that maybe linked to the strong Pac jet, so maybe we aren't in as stark disagreement as it may appear. PS: Thanks for the link!