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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think the predominate MC forcing constructively interferes there, whereas it decontructively interferes with +PNA in conjunction with the enhanced Pac jet.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, regardless of the semtnics of the MJO criteria, we agree on that general point.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    IDK, seems kind of arbitrary to me, dude....pretty close to last year's 2.762. Furthermore, phase 4 is also in the MC. You do you, but I would be loathe to forecast a strong RNA in the mean. Again, agree weaker than last year's deviation, which isn't saying much.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    I any event, I do agree that the PNA will not be as positve as last winter. Not arguing that point.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    I see 1.463 in phase 5 on the 29th and 2.422 in phase 4 on the 24th.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree on the wave reflection, but I also suspect it's followed up by a SSW, thereafter.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    October MJO came in stronger than 2022, but weaker than 2021.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    2021-2022 was actually our one repreieve from the seasonal +WPO.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Still neck-and-neck with 2024....see no reason it will deviate much.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    +WPO.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, I have been here so long that I am running out of images that I care to delete, so I have reorted to copy-pasting from the blog.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    The @bluewaveantichrist pattern with NAO blocking connecting with southWEST ridging lol
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    2024, sure.....this won't be like December 2023. It's not going to be that mild.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    @Stormchaserchuck1 What was your final NAO number?
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I've been anticipating a -1 to -1.2 peak RONI,
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Be very careful with this...I mentioned to Chuck a couple of weeks ago that the subsurface warmth has been hitting a brick wall around 140-150W dating back to last summer, and sure enough...it has already started to build back. I would read into that more with regard to the EMI thana sign of the demise of the event. We have seen some eorosion on the east flank, which guidance hinted at, but it should be brief. This is going to be east-based and is likely to break -0.6 ONI.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Absolutely. This tendency is something I pound right out of the gate in my write up.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think we get there for an actual SSW early season...it's not without representation in my analogs, but it's a long shot. I think December 1981 pulled it off...my money is on later in the season.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    2008-2009.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    I mean, MEI last year peaked at -1, 2008 was also -1. I know we don't have access to the current MEI, but I really fail to see why it would be any higher than either of those seasons. Again, I think you are getting carried away with the significance of the -IOD, which as you have acknowledged on several occasions, was also significant in 2008.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    @snowman19, it's a weak La Nina...nothing is supportive of anything stronger. Zero.. I agree that ultimately it will get close to the moderate threshold, but not right now.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    MEI we don't have, but the RONI is identical. I agree it's probably a tic stronger, but it's rather insignificant. I think you are overstating that.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    I post images on my blog and then copy and paste as a work around to this forum's limitations.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I will say, February 2008 was much higher amplitude in the MC, but not the case in the other months
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Now, maybe the west warm pool changes that? We will have to see.
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