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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I don't expect ton of snow, probably less than 1995-1996
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Oh, of course...last year was extreme.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think it will be variable with perhaps a slight nod to cooler ENSO like in the DM mean. But I am with you on some considerable +PNA periods. I don't see a 2022 like trough to Baja. I wouldn't mind a cool ENSO first half with a hand off to more neutral or warm in the second half.....that wouldn't kill me. lol I think given my mid season SSW hedge, we may not see a stock cool ENSO February, anyway.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, well remember that we HAVE been ENSO neutral...in conjunction with the atmospheric lag given that the RONI just eclipsed -.50 this month, that seems par for the course to me. I wouldn't count out some cool ENSO like windows this season.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Chuck, I feel like eliminating cool ENSO analogs is a bit drastic and restrictive....I mean, I understand incorporating some ENSO neutral years and maybe even some weaker warm ENSO, but it's not like there is a furnace beneath 3.4, either. Not to mention the overall base state of the hemisphere given the west warm pool.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I don't expect a deeply negative RNA this season...never have.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, going to have to watch it...but I think incorporating cool ENSO for a least the first chunk of the season is safe....there is a bit of a lag, too. I think 2012 may be a decent anti-log in this respect....if you look, the cool subsurface worked in from the west and decimated a developing warm ENSO, however, that season still went onto have some warm ENSO characteristics in terms of sensible weather. However, it did have more of a cool ENSO like Aleutian ridge.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    We'll see, but the western ENSO flank has been devoid of a cold pool all summer. I don't see the erosion east.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    2014 is about the best QBO analog I have ever seen, but I didn't factor it in because it was warm ENSO.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, but the eastern side of ENSO still has a cold subsurface. 1996 is a pretty good comp, but the subsurface is a bit more considerable east...plus the trades were non-existent that year. This event will be stronger than that.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    @Stormchaserchuck1I wonder if we try to see a Modoki El Niño next year....pretty comparable subsurface profile to 1967, which led into the 1968-1969 El Niño.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, the wave length differences have made fall more invulnerable to some of these perturbations that are speculatively linked to CC.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I mean, I'm talking about 0.1 to 0.2 ONI and very comparable RONI....so pretty trivial in that regard, but yea...perhaps the MEI disparity would be a bit more worthy of discussion. Sucks we don't have that. I think this marginal difference may be the difference between making an official La Niña this year vs failing last year.....I originally didn't think that we would go official, but am reconsidering.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think the primary impact will be to ensure this event remains pretty east-based heading into winter...it's been exceedingly difficult to marry any subsurface cold to substantive trades over the western flank.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, that was a blast-
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I actually agree with you that this La Niña may end up a hair stronger than last year, after starting my deep dive.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Hard to say SOP....tough call-
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Still not much reason for me to post. Back to Outlook....see ya in two weeks.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Maybe I came off more confrontational than I intended...didn't mean to put you on the defensive.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, but I was pretty clear on that portion of your statement, so why would I address it?
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    What exectly are you trying to insinuate? I mean....the RONI is dead-nuts on. If you are trying to say that the atmosphere is more congruent with La Nina this year, that may not be the worse thing in the world for winter enthusiasts given it's weak and eastward-leaning. Sucks we don't have the MEI this year.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right...it wasn't. It was a modoki event.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm sure snowman will be embedding a tweet to this effect in the AM.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Thanks. I'm making a concerted effort to factor this stuff into my seasonal more.
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