40/70 Benchmark

This article seems to suggest a positive correlation between the AMO and WPO, which adds up intuitively based on the continued +AMO, but I haven't looked closely throughout history. https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms15998

Yea, I agree with this...I'm just saying there is a reason that -PNA/-NAO patterns have struggled more and it's the west Pacific. When they worked in the past, it was always with a -WPO. We look poised for yet another +WPO season.....ugh.

Agree.

Going to need to see some huge changes in the subsurface to see a Modoki, but I'm not overly concerned with orientation when ENSO is this weak...just not that important.

Agree. I don't necessarily mean a frigid December...just active and not prohibitively warm.

I also think we may see a pretty fast start this December...will get into why later in the season, but it originates from the QBO/solar stuff.

I think the common denominators will be poleward ridging in the Pacific and pronounced period(s) of negative NAO in the midst of a decidedly +NAO season....-PNA likely hits hardest when the -NAO shows up, which should allow for a much more active storm track in the NE.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/06/strong-consensus-for-marginal-la-nina.html

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/06/strong-consensus-for-marginal-la-nina.html

You need to parse through analog seasons and determine what value there is to be gleaned from each, and then how to apply it to your forecast.

Depends on the how they are applied....analogs in the explicit sense, ie verbatim with the expectation of a replica season evolving....yes. I don't use them that way.

Damn, Philly is fast...was about to post the IRI update lol. Looks like El Niño is off the table...gonna either be cool neutral or weak La Niña, but given what we know about the state of the globe...probably wise to err on the side of caution and assume weak La Niña type of net impact. That said, what last season taught me is don't ENSO be a prohibitive factor in your analysis and discretion with analogs....ie, if you see strong value in a season, then go ahead an include it...even if its neutral or warmish ENSO. There is no way anyone could have had the Aleutian low reflected in their forecast composite for last season had they restricted themselves to solely cool ENSO seasons.

10 years? I found 2017-2018 pretty enjoyable.

There are very varied impacts of volcanic eruptions that are dependent on magnitude and location of said eruption....I read some articules on it after Honga a couple of years ago.

I think we are currently in a state of flux, but I don't think the prior regime has been completely "flushed out" quite yet....put it that way. Anyway, OT here.

That said, orientation is not a big deal when the ENSO event meager, as this one should be...but all things being equal, I'd still prefer to see to see it east-based. Defintely some interesting early season hedges to be made with a cool/ENSO easterly QBO combo....

Have you started looking at the winter stuff at all? I'm just getting going...

Translation: Trends are unfavorable, but F**K it....lets obsess, anyway, given the notable absence of a social life-

Anyway, Paul, you have known me long enough to understand I'm just teasing. I do appreciate your enthusiasm for weather...savor that because you will probably never witness me admit it again.

You are usging this logic on the wrong person.

Obviously its ridiculously early, but there is some major work to do for us to see anything other than an east-based cool ENSO event take shape (assuming it is cool ENSO) given the evolution of the subsurface this spring.

Are you suggesting that a SNE severe event maybe in peril?? Never could have foreseen that...

I would have to agree.

-EPO is my early hedge for next winter, as well...I was just telling a forecaster on FB that I associate with that I feel good about ridging INVO AK next season.

Its a general warming....I'm sure the warming varies from staton to station, but everywhere is inarguably warming.