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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Why???
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    I've been wating with baited breath for a 1917 redux ever since the Titanic sank.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't, either. My mind has been made up for months, but as in mathamtics, time to show the work.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    I have no issue with that...totally reasonable take.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    I have already asked Santa for some pro winter posts from @snowman19for Christmas....he has his work cut out for him.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I think most would sign for wintry holiday period, regardless of what was in the fine print of the deal with the devil.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    There is definitely some warmer risk mid season...no doubt.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    November 2024 was moderately strong and 2023 was stronger.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think the predominate MC forcing constructively interferes there, whereas it decontructively interferes with +PNA in conjunction with the enhanced Pac jet.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, regardless of the semtnics of the MJO criteria, we agree on that general point.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    IDK, seems kind of arbitrary to me, dude....pretty close to last year's 2.762. Furthermore, phase 4 is also in the MC. You do you, but I would be loathe to forecast a strong RNA in the mean. Again, agree weaker than last year's deviation, which isn't saying much.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    I any event, I do agree that the PNA will not be as positve as last winter. Not arguing that point.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I see 1.463 in phase 5 on the 29th and 2.422 in phase 4 on the 24th.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree on the wave reflection, but I also suspect it's followed up by a SSW, thereafter.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    October MJO came in stronger than 2022, but weaker than 2021.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    2021-2022 was actually our one repreieve from the seasonal +WPO.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Still neck-and-neck with 2024....see no reason it will deviate much.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    +WPO.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, I have been here so long that I am running out of images that I care to delete, so I have reorted to copy-pasting from the blog.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    The @bluewaveantichrist pattern with NAO blocking connecting with southWEST ridging lol
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    2024, sure.....this won't be like December 2023. It's not going to be that mild.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    @Stormchaserchuck1 What was your final NAO number?
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    I've been anticipating a -1 to -1.2 peak RONI,
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Be very careful with this...I mentioned to Chuck a couple of weeks ago that the subsurface warmth has been hitting a brick wall around 140-150W dating back to last summer, and sure enough...it has already started to build back. I would read into that more with regard to the EMI thana sign of the demise of the event. We have seen some eorosion on the east flank, which guidance hinted at, but it should be brief. This is going to be east-based and is likely to break -0.6 ONI.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Absolutely. This tendency is something I pound right out of the gate in my write up.
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