40/70 Benchmark

This jives with my thoughts for January, as my analogs have a stratospheric reflection event getting underway around mid month, which will trigger strong AK ridging and a +TNH pattern, but those reflection events are preceded by Pacific trough patterns....hence +EPO.

I think that is pretty unlikely independent of GW.....that was an incredibly anomalous stretch that included 2 all-time record snowfall seasons. Let's not get trigger happy with GW attribution.

Well played, sir.

TBH, I do the opposite...my final forecast compoisite will be derived from 1951-2010 climo, but I will label it as 1991-2020 in an effort to account for CC. I started doing that last year.

This is true, although the late 80s and early 90s were petty comparable in terms of snowfall....obviously not temps. No debate there.

I understand your argument...I just don't fully agree with it. I think part of this unfavorable storm track is regression to the mean after getting high off of a decade that dealt 40" winters out like crack. And I am convinced that even if NYC gets 50" in another winter, you won't change your mind. It will be "they are done now in this new and even warmer, climate"....keep kicking the can.

2020-2021 didn't have below average heights per se, but there were certainly some lower heights and colder air knifing into the country.

2017-2018 had some decent troughing....I mean, did I pull nearly 4' in March with a ridge??

I promise...if we get beyond the next solar min and nothing has changed, then I will fully capitulate. I wish I could say the same for the other side if NYC sees 50".

I don't agree with this, but it's no sense arguing because this topic is so politicized....no one is ever going to change the other's mind. My guess if that even if it happens, the debate will still wage on because it will get worked into the narrative some how...."Well, we are fortunate we had a mismatch, which I saw comeing when the October MJO spiked...but it won't happen again". Long story short...it's like politics. No one is ever going to change their mind or admit that they are wrong...and around, around we will go-

A moderate RONI implies a pattern that appears to be correalting to a degree comensurate with said strength...regardless of whether or not the La Nina is coupled. All I care about in a seasonal outlook. The RONI doesn't measure the how well La Nina is coupled...MEI does that.

36.9 for the low here.

Side piece?

More like parade of lakes cutters/redevelopers.

It's incredible how many people are incapable of nuanced thought...it has to be one extreme or the other. Either CC doesn't exist/won't impact winter, or "snowy seasons are a thing of the past". Either side loses credibility instantly with me. Jesus...accept the fact that CC is real and is impacting our wintrers, but it can still snow...both are true. I should focus my practice on Dialectical Behavioral Therapy for weather folks...I'd make a killing.

The CANSIPS would be a good winter for the NE....period.

Right...this is what the MEI and RONI better convey. I agree the west PAC issue must be considered ...only thing that is keeping me measured. That said, I view that as more of a cap and don't expect this season to be bad.

Stop focusing on on ONI. RONI and MEI will border on moderate.

Yea, I don't buy it being that dry...just commenting on the output.

Who needs snow when the demise of society is imminent-

I'm as shocked that you chose to point that out as I'm sure everyone else is... I do foresee a gradient aspect to this season... maybe it's a bit further north than that year owed to CC....just gonna have to see. I think it's a pretty decent west Pacific analog in that it was more neutral than the majority of the past decade, albeit not outright negative like 2021-2022. I think the mid atlantic will have a better shot later in the season than earlier....just my early thoughts. I don't see this season as a KU cookbook, though we will have a window or two. With cold in SE Canada and systems trying to cut west/moisture trying to overrun antecedent cold, you will probably want latitude.

Consensus has a similar look with respec to tropical convection. https://climate.copernicus.eu/charts/packages/c3s_seasonal/products/c3s_seasonal_spatial_mm_ssto_3m?area=area08&base_time=202509010000&type=ensm&valid_time=202512010000

@dendrite@dryslot

Same page as raindance....when I see phase 7 December composite all I can think of is Dec 2007, although that month didn't spend much time in that phase in a literal sense.

Well, that is a flip from 86F...not saying it's gonna snow lol