Brutal...it was in the days leading into the funeral services for my dad. I remember desperately seeking an escape on my cell while gathered with family to clean out his home, only to find a White Juan redux in NS. Blustery, cold (dry) unsympathetic month that was-
Maybe it ends up missing, but I can tell you all of the pieces aren't nailed at this range...doesn't have to mean it shifts in our favor, but this isn't 100% accurate as modeled, either. Lots of elements interacting here.
I am working on an update and pulled up that graphic only to see tepid support, much to my chagrin...until I realized I had left the window open and was viewing guidance from the 16th. FYI, refreshing that page will not update it...need to manually set run if you leave it open. lol
Even that QPF chart, as is, argues for prolific deformation from like Steve up through my area here in the MRV....crude rule of thumb is right near the QPF gradient, which at this range is only detecting lower level forcing.