40/70 Benchmark

1997 and 2015 each had a peak RONI value of 2.38. 1997 achieved a stronger peak MEI value of 2.6, as comparied to the 2015 peak value of 2.2. 2015 was stronger per ONI (2.6 vs 2.4), which kind of supports my premise regarding the higher ONI potential.

Very large leap of faith on your part due to what can be easily explained by simply variance, which should be the baseline assumption. I think the ceiling for peak ONI during warm ENSO episodes is increasing, but I just disagree with your claim that the mulidecadal cycle has been altered.

Yes., exactly. But I still don't see any difference between the warmer interlude circa 2025, during the multidecadal cold phase, and the late 1950s warmer period. They were both ENSO induced deviations from the predominate multidecadal cycle, which is why they were shorter in duration than warm phases that were congruent with the multidecadal state.

Yes, it did shift to a Modoki configuration, but it was late.

I agree. My inference is that we are just beginning to shift and it should continue throughout the latter portion of this decade...but obviously recovery from the depth of this multidecadal nadir will take some time.

Tongue-in-cheek...I'm with you on that.

No, last season I was actually a bit too warm, but snowfall was pretty good. As much as I quibble with Chris, I have to credit him for the adjustments I made last season. Many of his posts on the changes we are seeing in the WPAC were very illuminating, and I was able to see why I have been busting cold and snowy the past couple of seasons in this regime. We often don't see eye to eye, but he definitely brings a lot to the table. I think he has the right idea generally speaking, but he is just a bit more aggressive with extrapolating larger scale changes forward than I am.

Yes, this is what I was getting at when I said that CC is in fact impacting the SST imprint for the modes of the PDO, but I stand by my assertion that the oscillstion/cycle/secular is no different.

I think prefacing cycle with the term "multidecadal" clears up any confusion. I don't see any length of time specification here.... Dictionary Definitions from Oxford Languages · Learn more cy·cle /ˈsīkəl/ noun 1. a series of events that are regularly repeated in the same order.

The term "multidecadal cycle" is pretty common place in meteorolgical vernacular, but the term "secular" is not.

Yes, this is what I was getting at when I said that there have aways been intracycle deviations from the longer term mean...that doesn't negate the longer term, multidecadal trend....it reverys back. You can see this in my annotation with the double maxima pattern in each decadal cycle. There is also a colder intelrude (late 1980's) immersed within the last warm phase, which was also triggered by ENSO. Just to be clear...I am not denying or doubting CC...its very real. I just don't view this PDO cycling as a manifestation of it, nor do I feel that CC has impacted it....yet. I am, however, open to that conclusion if we do not see predominately +PDO during the 2030's, save for perhaps a La Nina induced stretch of -PDO interspered. I do feel that CC is impacting the phases themselves in terms of the associated SST patterns, but that is a different discussion.

Yes, it worked out very well this season.

BTW, @bluewaveperhaps sometimes my posts are more intense than intended as a result of the heavily sarcastic tone...believe me, I'm not angry and do value your contributions.

Believe me, everyone in the SNE forum can recall with vivid clarity your position with respect to the enhanced medium limiting storm potential. It hasn't slid under the radar, I can assure you.

I implied that you no longer feel the traditional concept of the multidecadal PDO cycling is still valid....what did I misstate?? I replied that its soon to draw that conclusion, and posted a graph that reveals similar cycling in the past as evidence. I agree regarding the second bolded point, but I don't think thats because I am misunderstanding anything....its because thise mode of communication is very impersonal and it is in fact difficult to detect tonality. You are probably right that I wouldn't perceieve you as arrogant in that case.

That may very well be true, and this is part of the reason why I think its important to wait until we get into the 2030s before assuming some of these larger scale changes. That is all I am saying....I not at all a CC denier, believe me. Very reasonable take, John.

Another problem you have is that you are often critical of my work when I can tell for a fact that you don't read it. If you had read my publication from last season, which was predicated upon many of your points, then you would not be coming to that conclusion. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/11/using-past-forecasting-difficulty-to.html Keep working at eliminating biases, which is mutually exclusive with being human (thanks for proving my point) because I have news for you...you haven't eliminated them yet. The rest of us mere mortals will focus on reducing our biases. BTW, as a LICSW, I am well schooled in the defense mechanism of projection, which inherently entails an element of struggle for the "projector" to accept and become conscious of the unwanted thoughts and/or feelings that they are attempting to project....I just admitted I have a bias that I am working to mitigate.

I absolutely have a bias towards cold and snow that I have been working to mitigate and the only way to begin successfully doing so is to own it. If your only agenda is truly to get the pattern correct, then I would suggest taking the self-preserving-blinders off and develop even a modicum of personal insight.

And I chuckle when folks have yet to realize that CC has been as heavily politicized as any other topic. Again...I urge you to begin a poll in which folks can chime in anonymously regarding whether or not you follow the data, or engineer the data to follow your preconceived notion. If the majority doesn't believe that you have a bias, then I'll venmo you $300. You have this air of superiority as if you aren't prone to the same biases that we mere mortals are....I'm going to let you in on a little secret....come closer....(whispers) you're human, too. Thus its important to wait on these sweeping proclomations that dispell theories supported by at least several decades of data. Perhaps you are 100% correct on everything, I wouldn't necessarily doubt it, you seem bright; but we do not know that yet.

Its much easier to perpetuate your theory when you keep adjusting concepts predicated on your theory BEFORE an adequate pool of data is in.

Much like I believe snowfall will incease again, I also am of the firm belief that the PDO will spend a great deal more time in the positive phase next decade....and if it doesn't, THEN and only then, is it time to consider a change like that. Not now-

You keep passing off these sweeping judgements, such as the "the long 30 year cycles have become a thing of the past" as if they are fact...they aren't. Its your opnion. Then if an index doesn't fit your agenda, you dismiss it and insert some alternate index. It doesn't work that way....I may consider the ONI archaic, but I still factor it in. I just include other metrics to more accurately depict the intensity of modern ENSO events.

I mean in the cold multidecadal phase, not locked into the cold phase, per se. I figured that was tacit. The variation happens in every multidecadal phase....there is alway some oscillation within the larger multidecadal phase. Its never literally in one state for 30 years, however, one phase is perdominant dependent on the longer term, multidecadal trend.

I didn't say that. Its too early....I haven't started on next winter yet. I was just making a point.

Right...and many think its too early to be discussing some of the longer term shifts that you dicuss, yet here we are. I still believe that its more likely that the Pacific is switching phases, given than the current cold phase began in 1998, than it is that we have crossed some crucial "tipping point" threshold with respect to CC. Keep in mind that I am not discounting the latter as a viable possibility, either. And just because I feel that the change may be underway doesn't mean I expect a 2.00+ seasonally PDO next winter, either.