40/70 Benchmark

Anyway, don't get me wrong....I'm not trying to go JB here and start hypng to hell.....but I feel as though seasonal forecasting has really become polarized, and lacks nuance. On the one hand, we have the lust for clicks on social media driving the hype train, and on the other hand we have this group of enthusiasts and pros that have adopted this insipid style of forecating whereas one should forecast warmth first, and think later, if at all. They are both equally as ill advised IMHO, though obviously the latter will verify better over the long run simply due to CC, rather than any actual skill. And I am not grouping people like Chris into that, either.....there are those who forecast warmth that present a great deal of data in support of said outcome and forth in a great deal of effort. However, there are some who have become "lazy", or unimaginative, so to speak. Not directed at anyone specifically...more of a general observation.

I highly doubt a PNA that biased towards negtive, but we'll see. Possible-

Okay....if that is the case, it would seem a warmer version of 2013-2014 adjusted for CC is a perfectly a viable option.

Don, can you do me a favor and let me know how many analogs you have that are a 100% match? Thanks.

Which is all the QBO difference means.

Probably a weaker PV this year then....winter cancel. Honestly though, you have this habit of dispelling analogs due to random differences.

Perhaps you should start.

How did I know this would elicit a wrothless contribution from you.....let me ask you this...say you have a routine that consists of making disparaging remarks to winter enthusiasts on a weather forum while taking a $hit each day...I know, not like any loser would do that, but humor me. Each day, you notice prior to flushing that the log that represents the culmination of your efforts is brown; but this one day it's actually blue. While it's not remarkable that there is yet another log in the toilet after trolling 40/70 online, would it be notable that said log was blue instead of brown? The dog sh cfs is consistently warm, bro. Ponder that while harassing AMWX members from the $hitter tomrrow-

Looks to be a severe -WPO/EPO.....somewhat +PNA and a modestly -NAO/AO. PNA and especially AO are iffy...

Not that this is right per se, because it probably isn't....but I'm not sure folks appreciate just how cold this is given the 1984-2009 climo base. If I were planning to copy and paste a composite of the past ten winters as some often muse, this would give me pause.

It's coming.

CFS for December:

I don't think it's means much in the sense that it will nail the forecast per se, as the CFS is really only useful anout a month out; however, it is very notable because the model is usually warm in the winter.

I give you guys credit for forecasting a lame tropical season, but the consensus was not at all for a hyper active season.

Mot of us have already been using this for a few seasons.

Those 4 seasons are all normal to slightly above normal snowfall around here.

Yea, I don't know where all of the cries over failed hyper activity calls come from....majority of what I saw was like a tic above average.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/08/preview-of-extra-tropical-pacific-for.html https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/08/preview-of-polar-domain-for-winter-2025.html

I think that is a given.

I guess I am talking about widespread 20"+....

I guess that is KU material for you guys, but certainly not something I would consider high-end.

2013-2014 also didn't have any higher end KU events if I am not mistaken....perhaps I am, not sure. But I know for my area, there were no really memorable events, which are tougher to achieve without a well placed PNA ridge. It's much easier to get more moderate snowfalls, which is mostly what we saw. Anyway, like I said...no absolutes. You don't absolutely NEED the PNA to cooperate...you can still time everything perfectly, but it's just much tougher.

It's much easier to have east coast winter weather in general without an active PAC jet...I'm not arguing it's favorable. But it's not the only reason the east coast has been struggling. The pattern has sucked. We did manage a -WPO in 2021-2022.

That was one of the most severe -WPO seasons on record. Like I said, nothing operates in a vacuum and there are no absolutes. Lets look at the following year....we must really want an extraordinarily +AO/NAO than.

Yes.