40/70 Benchmark

Yea, IDK....the seasonal map that I have seen posted has us at about exactly 8.5", as well....either you undermeasured a bit, or your street got porked.

Hopefully the mid-month coastal works out, but I've never been too keen on that.

I haven't touched the last two 1/4"ers.....my driveway is in the shade, so half of it has just kind of sublimated away.

Well, last February wasn't really warm....I don't think this February will torch, either.....the cold from latter January will likely spill into February, then warm up for a time, but the stratosphere this year is a lot more favorable for a later ending than it was last season. If you recall, I was all over a fast end last season...I don't see that this year. No guarantees, but the cards are stacked more in our favor this year to drag winter out.

Well shy, but I'm just saying, it's not doubtful that we are going to get a decent stretch or three along the way because we only have 8.5" now. . We could get 30" more and it would still be a terrible season in the aggregate.

Yea, I think it will be like that early February stretch, but will probably last longer.

Totally.....I would much rather worry about precip type, then watch Kev rejoice over the 2" every 3 days.

I don't think I'll need it......I mean, we aren't finishing the season with 10"...as bad as this stretch has been, we've been over 30" every year and I expect to do that, and then some with ease this year.

The gateway to hell has seemed to be about Derry, NH....north of there, there is usually enough moisture and cold to snow....but south of there has perpetually lacked.

I think it looks good later this month for consistent winter with some warning events....I don't like it for huge snow bombs.

I will say, the ability of mother nature to cram every orifice from just about every angle with a multitude of home improvement appliances this decade has been impressive. La Nina (mostly), El Nino, -AO, +AO, - NAO, +NAO, +PNA, -PNA, +EPO, -EPO, -WPO, +WPO, cold, warm...the one constant has been a remarkable dearth of snowfall anywhere within about 50 miles of the ocean, east of I 495 and south of rt 2 in SNE. The only good news is that we have paid our dues.....20's, 50's, 80's, 2020's......get it out of the way now and hopefully not have to grab my ankles for 10 consecutive years again until I'm no longer lucid enough to realize how badly it sucks.

Jesus...most deterministic guidance (I know) has about 1-2" of snowfall here through the 20th....if that were to ever happen, it's going to be difficult to reach climo around here....that would put me at around 10" approaching February.

I got 11" of sand, but same diff...I feel ya.

Totally fair.

This pattern is the worst now that Xmas is over.....you can F right off with the 1/4" every couple of days and cold, windy weather....it's just a giant PIA and am glad it's warming up.

That about sums it up-

@NoCORH4LI expect a big stratosphere disruption in early to mid February. Take a look at March 2023, 2018 and 2001...

Gladly take it....this pattern has made me nauseous...cold and windy and a steady dose of 1/4" clippers. Wipe that shit out.

@qg_omega

Yea, we'll see......I'm talking like a KU type...not a 6-12" coastal. Not complaining, BTW...just saying-

I'm sure La Nina's influence has definitely peak and is starting to wane...so maybe a bit less resistance to more favorable outcomes, but not like it's the primary driver....+TNH is not uncommon in La Niña seasons.

Yea, I get what he's saying...those changes aren't really impacting the pattern this winter IMO.

We should get a window for a bigger strike in early March.

It's going to be lose...that isn't a 2022-2023 Baja trough.

That is the type of pattern where you get a slew of moderate SWFEs and redevelopers...not a big dog set up with that gradient.