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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    My pre-season idea was for big +TNH to take over second half of January following a mid-month reflection event...this is also a great wave 2 precursor pattern for my forecast PV split in February.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Eh...depends...worked out okay in January 2022 and January-February 2015.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Every time the EURO has a shitty evolution, it's right...never fails. It's seemingly only ever wrong when it's desirsble.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    The loss of the big early Jan NAO jives more with my seasonal idea...that said, I'm def. still going to be too warm in January.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Get me a real storm I'll concern myself with thermals.....I'm done with the days of 20s and useless clippers. That's okay if you already have a deep pack...
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I'm ready to risk winter and get on with it.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I agree with him on late month...just wish we hadn't wasted so much season beforehand.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    That's fine, I was just jumping in....
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think the rest of winter is doomed or anything....all I meant is it's hard to essentially punt the first half in a cool ENSO year and end up hitting normal totals or above. I will also say that this seasons does have the profile to buck that trend.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    There was plenty of whining...yes, I do partake at times, but I also contribute a great deal...not like I just spew garbage endlessly.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm done...I vent every now and then, but I'm not carrying on. Just a quick burst this AM.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    So you need more evidence to conclude that February and March usually suck in a La Nina??
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Nailed my spot...8"
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    I get that...I think it's wrong. It doesn't have to mean a blizzard...all I am saying is that I'm confident January is +PNA in the mean....maybe it not positioned properly, etc....but it won't be a -PNA month.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Mid January I think that will change...
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right...near the solar min....seasons that average negative NAO in the mean have been declining in frequency, but the time to get them is ascending solar near solar min.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not you....the sentiment behind the post.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    No, actually IMBY, they couldn't.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    I still don't think the the seasonal NAO values were as low in the aggregate as they were in past negative NAO decadal cycles.....seasons that actually average negative in the DM mean are pretty sparse and relegated to intervals surrounding the solar min at this point...that said, maybe this year pulls it off.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, def. a very bad sign if we don't get anything major in the next two weeks.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Either Jan 2024 or 2022
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    What I will say is that I think guidance is underselling the emergence of the PNA...I can see this storm burgeoning back into existence with relatively little lead time when that correction is made.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't understand why energy congealing near the east coast ends up being delayed until the Maritimes as a result of the fast flow, but a developing eastern lakes or NYS bomb doesn't end up near the east coast...is there a gap in the flow or something?
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I was just hoping for at least some virtual excitement by this point, and all I am left with is a clipper that will produced a mini CJ as the dong drops on my grape on NYE.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Explain to me like I am 5 years old why a fast flow makes favorable tracks for the midwest and Maritimes more likely than the east coast...the west warm pool, I understand....
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