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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not IMO...unless there is deep H85 inflow, or deformation is right over me. Bank it...quote me next Monday.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Most of region? Yes.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    You know yourself a global at day 6 won't resolve that well enough....I'll bet you $1,000 it will be more pronounced than that.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    People said the same shit leading into Jan 2022....Scott was telling me I'd be fine day of, but I was right. Pretty clear signal....I know it when I see it. Bitter cold system with ocean enhancement is no bueno here unless mid levels save me.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    I get the range, but plenty of guidance doing that...same shit Jan 2022 pulled. I'm going to need deep easterly H85 inflow and/or perfect H7 deformation to avoid it.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    November 2010.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    TBH, a HECS is the safest birth control I can think of.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Repeats to self....don't stay up, you're 45 with 4 kids....don't stay up, you're 45 with 4 kids....
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Never done one...would love to..just an open stream of weenie consciousness. I'm not sure if you have to be a pro, though...
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's not collapsing. It's playing very little role...we must have had an El Nino last year, right? Oops...
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Judah is wrong...gonna split.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Hopefully it's an inverted tough.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I wonder if CoastalWx agrees? I thought it was -12 to -18?
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, need more phasing....as is, it's a moderate impact...maybe more if you considier the cold.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Wish he had the balls to make an account and post.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    The events like that are definitely prone to the screw jobs....just a weak low with ton of overrunning...had a bad screw job, but yea...everyone was around 1', at least.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    I have often wondered how to get around those mesoscale porks... I know one way is an H85 firehose, which we won't have...but I think the other way is to get intense H7 deformation bodily over the area.....Jan 2015 pulled it off. Jan 2005 kind of did.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    All good. Hopefully trends keep coming.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I don't think anyone should sweat that. If we can get that N stream injection to gain some legs through tomorrow it would be very reassuring for a large scale heavy event....eventual meso struggles be damned.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Tough shit. Sey-Mour 40/70andlikeit
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Nothing like that...I remember I was like WTF when I heard that.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    They have an ignore feature, have at it.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    IF it redevelops, sure.....I said that. But we still aren't sure it's going in that direction. My sentiment about a graze was if it stays primarily overrunning with a weak surface reflection. Regardless of whether or not you understand that mesoscale aspect or not, it makes sense with that airmass in place. It doesn't take a particularly skilled pro met to see that even at this range if he/she has any knowledge of local climo whatsoever.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Figured.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    These first two are not mutually exclusive....there is mesoscale risk with arctic air pinning the CF like that. Issue for a few days from now, but this is a setup conducive to that.
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