40/70 Benchmark

I think the "fraudulent" claims are too far on the other end...like most elements of research concerning seasonal forecating, it's importance was initially overstated due to a combination of our lust for skill in this arena combined with today's overzealous portrayal on social media. It has it's value if used properly in concert with a multitude of other factors, but said value was undoubtedly intially overstated. I usually give it a shout out near the end of the polar section of my final outlook, but it's more of a confidence bolsterer/voice of dissent. It's not the basis of the forecast, nor should it be for anyone.

11 summers I have ben doing this blog and this is the first without so much as a mention of the tropics, which means there were 0.00 viable major US threats.

Yes, absolutely....more ways to skin a cat, so to speak, in New England.

Yea, I don't see much of an argument for an exceedingly warm season...obviously the CC elephant in the room should provide the impetus for pause before going exceedningly cold, but most should have a fighting chance this year.

Yea, AO and EPO are non-starters if they are hostile. NAO is icing on the cake and more of an insurance element against "what could go wrong".

Sign me up for that pattern...while not a KU cookbook, that looks ripe for ample overunning and redevelopment with cold loaded in se Canada. Yes.

I think most of this tweet is quite frankly hogwash. I posted the composites a few times and this notion that E QBO supports a flat Aleutian ridge is an utter fabrication. The second year La Nina "rules" are also silly in general. I think the intensity and orientation of cool ENSO is more important that it's place in a sequence. I've seen folks on here point out the flaws with Bamwx, but this guy is far from infallible as well.

The folks laughing at this post should consider that La Nina in and of itself is in fact unlikely to be a major player, regardless of whether the west Pac makes it appear as though it is. Technically Anthony is correct.

I think a best case for my area is an active, +NAO season with a couple of pronounced periods of major blocking mixed in. I don't really care to have a deeply negative NAO season, which appear to be a thing of the past, anyway.

Yes. The thing about this stretch is that it has been consistently subpar, but I have avoided any bottom-dweller seasons.....just also missed out on the couple of decent ones. It's been a strIng of seasons in the 30s and 40s, save for 2020-2021, which barely snuck above 50".

True, I do expect a lot of inland primaries....I could see a slighly below average season, but shouldn't be an abomination at my locale....I don't think.

I don't expect to be strong until towards the new year..."bottoming out" is one thing...

I expect to the PV to beef up around the holidays and then we watch and wait for a January-February SSW.

It doesn't really add up IMO....they have slightly above average precip, normal temps...yet below average snow.

Everytime you post one of these inane click-whores' content, a weenie gets it's bun, and a brain cell dies.

I think the NAO will be okay in Decmber before becoming hostile for mid season, then turns more favorable in February...very much in line with raindance. Gun-to-head picking a single season that mirrors the expected behavior of the NAO, it would be 2022-2023. If you read between the lines, my stance was obvious last summer. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/08/preview-of-polar-domain-for-winter-2025.html

Agreed.

100% same page.

Yes.

I think 2013-2014 is definitely worthy of inclusion as an analog...most notably for it's statospheric reflection events during mid season. It's an awful polar analog...agree there.

No, the pattern has sucked...not arguing that. Bu no luck at all....going to have to disagree, as I often will when anyone speaks in absolutes, at least at this latitude. I had 42.5" in 2021-2022....a good 20" below my longer term average.

I didn't so much better than you....we often have pretty congruent obs.

Luck was still involved in general, as it always is....this is why I finished below average snowfall in each of those seasons, as I have each season since 2018-2019.

There will be some large differences from the 2013-2014 season, but for some reason, only a certain charcter of divergences are being discussed. I don't hear much mention of the fact that this season is likely to feature more high latitude blocking. It's indirectly referenced....ie, the poor QBO match will be offered as evidence against the analog in general, but little analysis elaborates on what that may entail; a weaker PV. And I've seen the research linking the -IDO to reduced coupling between the stratosphere and troposphere, and linking -QBO to reduced poleward ridging. Be that as it may, differences in an of themselves don't necessarily perclude a similar sensible weather outcome after accounting for CC.

Yea, I'm not saying it's a precise overlay...but generally similar....I think January '22 had more of longitudinal element to the gradient...this is more latitude.