40/70 Benchmark

Well, its a factor...like everything else. As a starting point, its common sense to first consider La Nina seasons if expecting a La Nina......but obviously these outlooks are getting more difficult becasuse there are an increasing number of forces at play as a result of CC. Its funny because on the one hand, its easier since 9/10 seasons are biased warm...but the catch is that its getting more difficult to get the rationale for the warmth right within the context of a given season, aside from the background CC trend. For instance, most of predicted warmth simply because of a canonical strong El Nino were not right.

In my view, you need to satisfy two conditions to be taken seriously with respect to Outlooks... 1) Get it right from time to time and have well reasoned/ data-supported forecasts... 2) Maintain some modicum of humility and accept failure... In my experience, the most accurate forecasters don't necessarily meet these criteria, if you catch my drift.

I'm not losing sleep, dude.....but all you can do is either laugh about it, or be an ass and project said failure onto others.

Yea, well....it takes me several weeks to compile data and garner insight in order to make the most well informed, garbage Outlook in the history of garbage Outlooks. As far as solar nadir snowfall....same page-

Yea, at this point I'm just of the mind to toss all significant SNE snow until its imminent. About the extent of any further investment for me as it relates to this particular season. I start obsessing for weeks at a time during the back half of the summer, so I am just completely done if the season has failed to deliver at this stage.

December and February killed me in terms of temps, but the month that really killed my snowfall totals was February....I needed an escape from the MC that month and instead it happened in late March. I expected this pattern to come a month ago.

Of course, the part I nail is the portion that I predicted to blow fatties.

I think I went +2 to +4 with little to no snow for March in SNE, so it would be nice if I got something right this year...

Go ahead and sign me up for the under on 7" here.

Basin-wide, but QBO will be polar opposite.

The first 3 are Modoki, the latter had an eastern lean.

There is Kev's Dec 2008.

I'm an amateur...which implicitly makes learning my primary motive for doing this. You can't learn from errors unless you own and accept them....only cheating myself if I don't.

Nobody should apologize to me for anything. I missed the mark...again.

Still on ignore right now.

I wonder why the west PAC warm pool only prohibits entry into phase 8-1 during the cold season....perhaps as the relatively cooler ambient waters begin to warm (cool in the fall) it loses (gains) pervasiveness throught the Hemisphere?

I think the changes they have made recently are a good start.

Yea, my early thoughts are healthy Modoki La Nina and -PDO.

This season would have suucked regardless of ENSO....it wasn't El Nino that pinned the forcing in the MC.

Well, everyone is by default....it won't get any worse.

+1" 31"

About an inch of snow here with rain now. 33.1

S-....coated up 31.1/26

I love this place.

Maybe tomorrow night; she is pretty strict right now with timing things according to her ovulation cycle