40/70 Benchmark

Chuck, I feel like eliminating cool ENSO analogs is a bit drastic and restrictive....I mean, I understand incorporating some ENSO neutral years and maybe even some weaker warm ENSO, but it's not like there is a furnace beneath 3.4, either. Not to mention the overall base state of the hemisphere given the west warm pool.

Yea, I don't expect a deeply negative RNA this season...never have.

Yea, going to have to watch it...but I think incorporating cool ENSO for a least the first chunk of the season is safe....there is a bit of a lag, too. I think 2012 may be a decent anti-log in this respect....if you look, the cool subsurface worked in from the west and decimated a developing warm ENSO, however, that season still went onto have some warm ENSO characteristics in terms of sensible weather. However, it did have more of a cool ENSO like Aleutian ridge.

We'll see, but the western ENSO flank has been devoid of a cold pool all summer. I don't see the erosion east.

2014 is about the best QBO analog I have ever seen, but I didn't factor it in because it was warm ENSO.

Yea, but the eastern side of ENSO still has a cold subsurface. 1996 is a pretty good comp, but the subsurface is a bit more considerable east...plus the trades were non-existent that year. This event will be stronger than that.

@Stormchaserchuck1I wonder if we try to see a Modoki El Niño next year....pretty comparable subsurface profile to 1967, which led into the 1968-1969 El Niño.

Yea, the wave length differences have made fall more invulnerable to some of these perturbations that are speculatively linked to CC.

I mean, I'm talking about 0.1 to 0.2 ONI and very comparable RONI....so pretty trivial in that regard, but yea...perhaps the MEI disparity would be a bit more worthy of discussion. Sucks we don't have that. I think this marginal difference may be the difference between making an official La Niña this year vs failing last year.....I originally didn't think that we would go official, but am reconsidering.

I think the primary impact will be to ensure this event remains pretty east-based heading into winter...it's been exceedingly difficult to marry any subsurface cold to substantive trades over the western flank.

Yea, that was a blast-

I actually agree with you that this La Niña may end up a hair stronger than last year, after starting my deep dive.

Hard to say SOP....tough call-

Still not much reason for me to post. Back to Outlook....see ya in two weeks.

Maybe I came off more confrontational than I intended...didn't mean to put you on the defensive.

Yes, but I was pretty clear on that portion of your statement, so why would I address it?

What exectly are you trying to insinuate? I mean....the RONI is dead-nuts on. If you are trying to say that the atmosphere is more congruent with La Nina this year, that may not be the worse thing in the world for winter enthusiasts given it's weak and eastward-leaning. Sucks we don't have the MEI this year.

Right...it wasn't. It was a modoki event.

I'm sure snowman will be embedding a tweet to this effect in the AM.

Thanks. I'm making a concerted effort to factor this stuff into my seasonal more.

Yea, I'm been trying to get it ...entered 70N/20N an 100E/60W. Must be doing something wrong.

The gradient between the cold in Siberia and the warmth INVO Japan is what has been causing the stronger jet, correct? I'm struggling to replicate that map view...how did you create the custom view focusing on the North Pacific?

Yea, IDK...I grade based off of the official index calculations....I mean, I forecasted a -WPO, so it's not like doing so helps me lol It is what it is.

I read that tweet this morning and was wondering how long it would take you to embed it here La Niña is very comparable to last year...I feel like he is overstating the importance of the -IOD....we have had some incredible winters with a -IOD....it's not prohibitive in-and-of-Itself. The WPO was extremely positive last year and my money is on LESS of an anomaly this year, but we shall see. The way I see it is that La Niña is extremely comparable to last year in terms of intensity, but more east-based. The west Pacific is also very comparable. JAS RONI is .63...JAS 2024 RONI was also .63. September 2024 WPO: 1.38 September 2025 WPO: 1.22