40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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Agree....should be either warm-neutral or weak el nino. If it were to be the latter, then find it hard to believe that we would have two consecutively that behaved so erratically, but I found alot hard to believe last year that I shouldn't have in hindsight. I think odds of nino are less than 50/50 atm.
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Thanks, man....yea, we'll see. I don't see anything egregiously bad for next year, but as we saw last season, that does not guarantee anything. Hopefully we edge back into el nino territory.
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I just mean that it didn't work out...I was confident, but I ended up with egg on my face because it was wrong....its an expression.
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Just finishing brushing the egg off of my face from last season in time to begin parsing through data for the coming season. Early ENSO thoughts are nothing surprising. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/08/first-look-at-enso-for-winter-2019-2020.html
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"Owning" failure is a prerequisite for learning...so if you aren't willing to do that, than none of your work is worth $hit.
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2019 ENSO
40/70 Benchmark replied to AfewUniversesBelowNormal's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
What are your thoughts on 1969-1970? Just starting to look at things, and this season catches my eye for some obvious and not so obvious reasons. Good work last year. I have learned a great deal from your way of looking at things. -
2019 ENSO
40/70 Benchmark replied to AfewUniversesBelowNormal's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Yea, I remember you posting about that. May very well hold some weight. -
2019 ENSO
40/70 Benchmark replied to AfewUniversesBelowNormal's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Yea, no one nailed it....some obviously better than others, but even those that got it "right" missed some key points. I was awful. -
2019 ENSO
40/70 Benchmark replied to AfewUniversesBelowNormal's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I agree. Very solid contributor. -
Verification: https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/06/winter-outlook-2018-2019-verification.html Note that the final grade is representative of the overall, DM performance of the temp and snowfall forecast from the mid atlantic through SNE. Obviously, if we are just grading SNE snowfall, than its an F. But we aren't....so C-
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March 12/13/14 Blizzard/Winter Storm/WWA etc
40/70 Benchmark replied to Bostonseminole's topic in New England
My best event...man, that was the cherry on top of a pretty damn near perfect outlook. There was only one direction to go, and sure enough, this season went in it. lol -
In hindsight, I should have just shifted First Call from early Thursday a bit to the south.
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Pretty detailed discussion about why I feel the heaviest snows verified southeast of my forecast. Basically, had the system been about 12 hours further along in its evolution, the H7 low would have been closed off, and that forcing would have been displaced to the north. But since it had only closed up to H85mb, the most intense forcing focused at that level...which is obviously further southeast. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/03/march-4-verification.html
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Yea, totally foregettable event here.
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8.5" Final
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Huh? I was kidding....
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Awesome, Tip. I have heard Harv slant sticks...careful
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Well, I made a post earlier this season that it has been since the 1979-1980 season that the Boston area had had a weak el nino without at least one 1'+ event.....and we haven't broken that streak for much of the area. #toldyaso
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Sucks to have gotten screwed, but oh well.
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I had 8"
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8"
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Stuck to everything from the start here...probably about 2" now.
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Looks like it shifted north like 10 mi.
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1.5" S 31.3
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Looks like there may be a sharp gradient just south of KCON, as the mid level H7 fronto and lower lift from the south seems to be joining there. Rapidly filling points south.
