40/70 Benchmark

Yea, def. looking more neutral...which side is debatable. Gotta be careful with the subsurface becuase it doesn't always continue to translate to the surface, especially with negative SOI maybe keeping rosby waves in check. I've caught myself snickering at IRI before, but they usually end up more correct than we are.

35.1 LOW

I really don't think warm neutral is insane, but we'll see. I'm certainly betting against a classified la nina.

37.2 and dropping...

Reminds me of a less active 1995.

Good reason why I hate 93-94. All I hear is how epic it was.....I was like 15" above average with no events over 12".

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/09/enso-and-qbo-derived-preliminary-winter.html

I'd quite frankly be stunned if la nina materialized.

Its epic here...now watch, he'll spit the bit after nailing the terd last season. Lol

I would not be at all upset with a blend of 1992-1993 and 2004-2005 for winter.

I was very skeptical, but he did well last season. Still not my preferred methodology, but he def. has my attention this season.

Ne MA was actually screwed the most, relatively speaking..

The 'ole 4-8" backlash ..tried and true..

Yea, sorry; I was off by 5 days. Lol

I think VD 2007 busted as sleet for central NE

Likewise.

Some reports of big branches down in Methuen, but I saw nothing of the sort.

Yea, big -EPO and ENSO strength is about all I had right last season.

Fair enough. I would have nevee guessed that CT has been shafted.

About as impressive as most severe episodes.

No. Just got home. Some spotty outages...loop has no power. Some ponding and twigs down. #stayingsafe

Heading into it...prob not Tor

That nasty warned call right over my house.. ..nasty

Well, I don't think the greater snowfall has been due to more smaller events....we have had an abundance of big tickets, progressive as they may have been...

Yea, I'm not arguing the physics of the idea...more just speculating on the impact in terms of snowfall. I will say that it has been like pulling teeth to get really slow movers the past couple of decades, which maybe the gradient saturation manifesting itself. However I think speed of movement is an overrated determinent of snowfall....its all about dynamics, which are relatively fleeting, anyway...6-9 extra hours of shreded RAD echoes are fairly inconsequential.I think that increased frequency of excessive snowfalls in the face of the gradient saturation is a testament to this. Additionally, the gradient is also beneficial in terms of east coast snowfall at times in the absence of blocking....goes both ways.