40/70 Benchmark

Seasonal Update: https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/12/december-well-behaved-winter-respite.html I'm pleased, so far....though I started well last year, too.

I'm going to post about January hopefully tonight, but def. by the new year....will review seasonal thoughts for January and do post analysis of verification vs thoughts for December. Foot note version is that December has gone pretty much exactly as planned, save for the big PNA not really working out, but we scored anyway. The cold, active storm track and variable NAO did verify, and the cold departures that were focused on the first half of the month were negated to such a degree by the mild second half that we should end up a hair below for the month in the aggregate. This was all according to plan, as the PAC was supposed to go into the toilet and it has.

We've already had more breaks than last year...remember that we whiffed on the early December 2018 window. Many got nailed in early December 2019, though I know not everyone. Most of sne, anyway is at least going better than a year ago.

Last season was the inverse of 2014-2015....I'd expect more breaks this year relative to last year, and hopefully a bit more blocking. We don't necessarily need a March 2018, either...

....but the risk is much greater when the PNA is negative and the NAO is positive. That is his point.

Sounds like last season with the EPO dumping west and storms encountering zero resistance to cutting.

Yea, I'll sell a cold/dry January.

We did....blizz of '78.

Yea, always dangerous to pin hopes on a sustained March 2018 block, but even just some transient and well timed ridge nodes in the right spots can do the trick. Judging from my analog composite, we should at least pull that off.

Yes.

Yep.. blocking will make or break second half because Pac will not be very good. I'll do a longer term piece before the New Year.

Strongly agree....for most of the winter from here on out imo.

+3" 25" total..

+2"=22"

Still about 5-6" 50.9

0.1 for the low. Great radiation spot.

Down to 6.8

I'm almost halfway to last year's total lol

+1"...done. 20"

06-07 was my first, too.

I wouldn't worry yet if I were towu, either....we saw what happened after one early storm to kick off last year.

+19" Added and shoveled.

@donsutherland1 I think you are on the right track, Don. Very similar to my thoughts.

Looked like .75" to me.

Updated December thoughts...not much change. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/11/wet-holiday-travel-week-leads-to-onset.html