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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I never understood why some were dismissing chances for weak el nino with region 4 being so warm.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think the SSW played a large role, as it ultimately provided the impetus for the PV to coalesce and the MJO was just pinned. That is the risk in really meager ENSO events...alternate forcing mechanisms can interfere.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think its a bit too hasty to definitively procliam any typical manifestation of weak ENSO as purely coincidental.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, bares watching....I have not written el nino off. And the modoki rating can change swiftly, as we saw last year.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its probably not going to be an el nino at all, but the surface and subsurface warmth is definitely biased west.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    2012 ended up being a fine winter out here.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looks like the seasonal snowfall gradient this past winter.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm in the minority, but I don't track something like that any more than I do a sunny day. Its either going to rain hard and be blustery imby, or be damp and not blustery. I lean toward the latter, but couldn't care less. No knock on those that do...I get it.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Am I the only one who doesn't care where it trends?
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    30.9 last night. Two freezes.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    En route to another freeze... 32.5/32.2
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    33.8/33.4
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    34.9/34.5
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I love this.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    35.6/35.1
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    36.7/35.8
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Haven't done anything in my mind until they beat Houston.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Lo was 34 on the Davis in Wilmington at mom's...so 5* colder imby. Hi was 58.8 here and 58 there, so instruments seem fine.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    My guess is it will be 30-31....I can tell you that my spot here in Methuen radiates very well. I'm a 150' "valley" in the midst of a bit of a 250'-350' "spine". Obviously these are all relative terms, but it makes a difference during prime radiative conditions.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    When I drop my mothee off later after the baby shower, I will check my old Davis.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    28.9 for the low. growingseasoncancelled
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    29.8 30.0/29.7 currently....hard, killing freeze. Deck iced up.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm not opposed to a relatively mild December and I still definitely favor a warm-neutral ENSO. My point was I don't think the ship has entirely sailed on a marginal el nino. As far as the sst anomalies go, a +.55C in 1950 is means the same thing in 2019...sure, overall temps are warming, but anomalies are relative.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    3 of your 6 best ENSO matches went on to become el nino events. Interesting that you link mild Decembers in east to warm region 4. When region 4 is above +0.5c in latter September as it was this season, the odds are very high for el nino since 1990. I listed the data set in my blog. Full of strong Ninos, and weak ones that were cold in the east, save for 1994.
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