40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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Obviously the GEM is very good. The problem with the GFS is that the H5 low is further to the north, bodily over sne and a bit weaker....the Euro tracks similarly to the GEM, but it looks to me like the low up east of Greenand is not nearly as pronounced, which doesn't allow the system to dig as much and intensify. That is correctable.....GEM is closer to reality than GFS...that said...doesn't necessarily mean a big snow storm for sne.
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I mean, I think it will ebb and flow, but don't expect a 2015 ridge to sit on the eskimo's face.
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Back in November, I picked 12/5 to 12/19 and 2/20 to 3/5 as my periods.
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Yea, we need timing....this is a good example of the value of an NAO. Its overrated in the sense that there is a misperception that you need it for a big event. You don't, but if we had it here, then the path to a fun solution would be much wider because the confluence would be held in place and the system would be forced to dig.
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DT has had a rough couple of years.
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Walt, please drop in here whenever time permits....appreciate the thoughts.
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If the Atlantic doesn't change, then I can see an early spring, but I still feel as though it will. The Pacific should largely remain crap....that is what I have said since Novie.
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It won't melt any faster than it did in the mid Tanuary 70s.
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+5.5" 34"
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Worst case scenario is that it waits until March, but I think we have a good shot at February. I went into the season confident in a significant stretch of - NAO during the February through March period....so far so good on my thoughts, and hopefully that continues. One thing thatI have learned, though is to never take anything for granted....big slice of humble pie last year, so we will see.
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Yup...expected. Lets see it hold. Could be rushed, but I think its real.
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Agree. Gave this potential a shout out in last Sunday's blog.
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+ .5" 28.5"
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Yea, entirely possible, but hopefully February. I didn't expect it for January.
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86-87 may have...
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I've heard the same..makes sense...I mean, what, 7 consecutive positive NAO winters? The regression radicals can't have the weenie and eat it, too....NAO needs to regress, as well.
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The backing away from PNA doesn't suprise me.
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I do.....blocking.
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Me, three.
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Man...GFS, Euro and UK all in good agreement....1-3" south of pike, and 3-6" north of pike.
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This stretch is really getting to people.
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Presidents day 2-20 to 3-5 is my second favored window for a large event...the first was early to mid December (12-5 to 12-19), which was a hair too late.
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Yes...always looked that way to me. I wasn't a fan of the wholesale Miller B appeal with that residual troughing out west. This goes both ways....which is why I am not looking at next week with "snow goggles"...just assessing the layout and diagnosing what I perceive as being the most likely outcome. Next week's ostensibly quiet appeal has a better shot of delivering a major snow event for all of sne than this coming weekend ever did IMHO.
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There is some semblance of an Archambault signal, though not the most robust that I have ever seen. No one is promising anything, but anyone with a modicum of meteorological intellect can look beyond the single deterministic panels. I know you guys are messing...just sayn'...
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Climo will play soon...just not yet.
