40/70 Benchmark

What in the Hadley Cell is your problem?

No, the call was made in November...I just updated in late December. The protracted thaw was always expected, but I increased the magnitude with the shorter lead time.

There is a seasonal progression section near the end....if you go to the thread, I have posted select excrepts. You seemed to get the gist when you posted last fall that "I hope you are wrong"...lol

I think my exact verbiage was "protracted mid winter thaw"....

There were a good amount of us who thought mid winter would be mild....I'm not sure it was "against the grain", so to speak...

We thought the last one would press south, but models actually pressed too much.

The RNA is here to stay. I have been saying since last fall once it arrives, it will remain for the balance of winter.

Tolland 56 and Methuen 30?

I'm sure Will remembers..

Same

Agree.

Maybe it will be that warm, but no reason to totally bite at day 6..

I trust their ability to diagnose daily departures...I don't blame them for not forecasting 30 degree departures at 6 days lead time...same reason you don't forecast 30" of snow 6 days out. Actual likely closer to climo.

Yea, I'd defer to NWS on daily departures.

I can't wait until whatever isn't going to happen mid week, doesn't happen, so we can enjoy a nice weekend and focus on the improving look for the second half. January is a "fast forward" month this year...has looked that way since fall.

I forecasted slightly above normal snowfall with a midseason punt...its not as uncommon as you think...we did it two years ago, too. TBH, if you are going to punt a third of the season and still do well snowfallwise, the middle portion is the segment to punt bc we have the most margin for error climowise with regard to snowfall at that point. In other words, mid winter is when we are most likely to BS our way to some snow despite an awful pattern...which is the key to good seasons. We never go wall-to-wall synoptic nirvana. As far as the "one event" caveat goes.. go back throughout history and subtract the largest event from all of the seasonal tallies...it would significantly alter the overall tenor of most seasons....such is the peril of avaeraging 60" and not 160"-

Bank on it....things are going to get started in the polar domain.

Good point...he may just mean sensible appeal?

Bill, how do you feel about the guidance for January so far...."uh....snort-snot rocket projectile....we're on to February"....

I could buy that look for February.

Agree.

Looks gradient like, to me...certainly not too warm in NE. Maybe mid atl.. I'd expect overrunning and SWFE there, rather than big coastals.

You guys are totally reasonable. Could still be a few inches, though I doubt it..