40/70 Benchmark

What is your NAO formula at currently?

Don, I am thinking December-January and then again in March.

Gonna need a colder boat-

I'll bet the -NAO periods aren't partculary cold because the PNA/EPO will probably flip....so probably still messy events, just more favorable tracks.

This fits my early stuff precisely...+NAO with -EPO and some bouts of -AO.

Is there any winter correlation for having such a sustained and robust +AO/NAO this time of year?

Tend to agree, but I do think it will get rather destructive.

I think the NE will fare better if SE Canada is cold.

I mean the balance of the season by "finish"....

Wow...I didn't expect it to bump up ACE. May be a fercious finish-

Glad you're a good sport, Chris. I agree that the seasnal consensus probably doesn't have the pattern nailed. But if I had to pick two elements that I am most confident in, it would be ridging INVO AK and a primary storm track inland from the east coast.

That precip pattern also screams "Miller B" to me....check out how the swath of negative precip anomalies abates over central NE, and we see a redevelopment of + anomalies to the southeast. Makes sense given the vortex situated near HB in the pressure anomaly chart.

Pretend I just injected you with truth serum....say the EURO had just come off of the presses with a HUGE southeast ridge, vortex over AK and about a +5 anomaly thoughout most of the NE....would you honestly be shifting the topic to the inaccuracy of seasonal models?

I would think it would be tough to get too many major lows plowing through the lakes with a vortex INVO of Hudson's Bay....these charts scream SWFE/Miller B to me. Also trying to think of what would bias the models towards higher heights over AK in a cool ENSO. They would have to be underestimating La Nina and/or developing it too far east. I am confident this isn't going to be a robust Nina, so I buy the -EPO, which aligns with all of my early seasonal work. Now, maybe they are underdoing CC and it will be generally somewhat warmer...okay. Maybe they are also underplaying the +WPO influence given how stout that West warm pool is, but it may be tough to get the +WPO to exotic levels with stout EPO blocking. Interesting-

Yup. I will say that the bias is often towards stock ENSO, which was true last season.

Absolutely agree with this, but I would take the under on the degree of latitude and elevation needed relative to recent seasons. Like I said, you aren't getting all of that energy to consolidate as far west without a trough to Baja.

Bingo- Not everything needs to have a KU chapter dedicated to it to produce appreciable snowfall in the NE.

Nice map.

Agreed...not a KU pattern, however, with ample cold in SE Canada, that is conducive to SWFE and Miller B redevemopment depending on how much and how quickly energy consolidates west-which may not be much given a more neutral PNA. This is why I have been saying give me 2022-2023 with a bit less of a neg PNA, which was into the Baja that year. There is more than one way to skin a weenie-

It would have saved me if the PNA weren't in the tank...I am fair game into the first week of April.

I don't think that is a particulary balmy look for the NE during winter. Its also not a KU pattern....but that looks to me like a good cold supply in se Canada, which bodes well at least for a lot of NE.

Looks just like some of my prelimary composites...which is probably a bad sign for me.

No argument there...but all else equal, I would like a negative NAO that is in retreat, per Archambault research.

I could see mid-to late January if we get a bout of early season blocking that receedes around that time, but I think the stronger shot of a major east coast system is late.

I don't foresee that as being prohibitive. ...the ONI will be of course be weak and official La Nina designation dubious, but I think in a practical sense, this particular cool ENSO will ultimately straddle the boundary of a weak/moderate hemeispheric expression.