40/70 Benchmark

Like I said to Chuck, can't say confidently we are switching to +PDO yet, but I think its close...within the next few years.

I fininished 2014-2015 with 115" and 2017-2018 was 88.5"....my long term average is in the lower 60s.

This is pure nonsense....I don't care that you can dig up articles supporting it. My statement about 7 years was in relation to CC drastically lowering snowfall....what I said was 7 years ago I had just had two months of over 60" of snow within a 3 year window, so I'm not sure how on earth one could confidently conclude that CC was lowering my snowfall at that point.

Seriously, though...its as plausible a theory as anything else. Just going to have to let things play out into the next decade.

You mean to tell me you think we will remain in a -PDO pattern as a result of CC for all of eternity? I never would have guessed that....in other news, I have a hunch the sun angle will begin to lower in about 5 weeks

Yea, maybe we take one last step backwards in that regard next season before the -PDO cycle takes its last breath.

No, I agree with all of this...I wasn't trying to imply that I expect to enter the -NAO muiltidecadal cycle around the next solar min...I meant literally maybe one season that averages more negative. My larger point concerning solar min is that if we don't see a good winter through the next solar min, then I will start to consider CC as a larger contributor. I do not expect a flip in the NAO decadal cycle....PDO, I do.

Maybe so, but we should get thrown a bone around or shortly after solar min.

Exactly. ..that is what I honed in on.

Out winter seasons are like the Celtics now....all or nothing...either the 3s hit, or they don't and they stumble.

Yea, I was saying it last summer even before publishing in early November. +QBO and cold ENSO during solar max usually hasn't ended well for the east coast.

That's where I am right now....but like I said, if we keep rolling snake eyes through the next solar min, then I will change my tune.

I definitely agree with this...marginal events having more trouble.

No, I pointed that out as well. I am not denying it....but I feel it's also due to pattern, which is part of the regression. CC is positively a factor and if in give years form now I am posting about a 12th consecutive well below average snowfall seasons, then I will be of the opinion its more due to CC.

Just to be clear....I am waiting on deciding whether or not CC is already having a larger impact on snowfall than simple regression throughout the NE coast, NOT whether or not CC is taking place....or whether or not CC is already impacting snowfall in the coastal mid atl.

We'll see. Maybe you're right, but this is still mostly regression in my mind. 7 years aso I had just concluded my second calendar month of over 60" of snowfall within a 3 year window.

Yes, precisely. CC is undoubtedly playing a role, but I am going to maintain that simple regression is playing a larger one...at least for the next severals years or so. My mean seasonal snowfall since 2014-2015 just slipped below average after this past season, despite 7 consecutive duds....so I am defitely more open to a larger CC attribution if this should continue into next decade.

Maybe it edged a bit east, but it never looked great.

I think the system lacking cohesiveness was do at least in part of the crap PNA ridge. I agree with you, though....CC definitely isn't making it any easier, but its not the only reason.

March 2015 $hit the bed for my area...everything supressed into the southern half of the region...was cold and dry as the epic pack slowly fossilized and eorded. Cost me a seasonal snowfall record that I was sure I was going to get.

"Most"....right...not all. I actually did a very good job of doing so in relation to that particular forecast, as I never "took the cheese", so to speak. The PNA ridge was displaced too far west and off of the coast, as it was for most of the season. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/02/major-storm-threat-next-week-likely-to.html

I guess I should have said "averaged very positive throughout February"....that is what I meant. My bad on that.

There was a brief period -NAO mid month...I didn't say the entire month was negative. There have always been a favorable several day windows that failed to produce...I'm not sure that warrants disregarding the NAO index. Maybe you are right and we shouldn't bother factoring in the traditional NAO value when forecasting storms, but I'm not ready to make that leap.

Chris, I am not arguing that your claim has no basis or validity, but I think there is some overattribution going on there.

I actually think the best example of a the PAC jet screwing the pooch was in January. This is especially true given the presence of stronger than average Pacific jet, which combined with +NAO in the seasonal mean made it extremely difficult to sustain a +PNA ridge in the proper location long enough to facilitate the development of a major east coast snow storm. Here is a prime example from last winter of the Pacific jet undercutting a +PNA ridge and this tilting it positively, leading to a failed phase attempt on the east coast. This was a theme of the season.