40/70 Benchmark

This makes sense to me....which is why I don't have an issue with a 2022-2023 type of evolution because I think a more pedestrian RNA in a regime like that would yield respectable snowfall. The +NAO anaomaly I feel will be stronger than the -PNA, but I don't think its wall-to-wall, as I am getting some signals for some early and late seasons blocking potential.

My guess is that the PNA will average negative, but not extremely so...there will probably be one month that averages positive.

We have only had two -WPO seasons over the span of a decade.... 2016-2017 and 2021-2022. I don't expect that to change either, so....

I do kind of doubt and extreme +NAO AND RNA this season....that has been tough to pull off, as Chuck can attest to. Doesn't mean it won't be warm, but just saying...

Of course that's the one spot on the globe that pulls a cold amomaly in this new, warmer climate.

My feeling has been it will be around -1...borderish.

Not uncommon to have an ENSO attributed deviation from the loneger term Pacific trend...saw that in the late 50s, too.

Like I have been saying, we will know alot more once we get into the next decade. Obviously the globe is warming...we know that now, but in terms of whether this pattern is merely one of the multidecadal fluctuations as we know them, or a longer-term CC-induced shift.

Yep..."in this new, warmer climate"...tells you all you need to know.

I agree the Pacific is more important than the NAO, which is why the vast majority of the past decade has sucked. But all else equal, I will take a somewhat negative NAO...there are degrees of "suck". I think a -NAO would have helped last February...that doesn't mean I think its more important than the Pacific, but some of those mixed precip events probably would have been more wintry.

Sure, the WPO was still strongly positive in the seasonal mean, but it was better in many spots do the PNA mismatch and -EPO. The NAO and poorly placed PNA ridge foiled February. I am not debating that the HC is edging nothward, but there is more to it than that...the pattern has also sucked.

You can always find a random spot that doesn't do well with snowfall even though the overall CONUS did decently last winter.

It was also a decidedly +NAO.

Flip the WPO and poof.....it would head south again. I'm talking about on a seasonal level, not a two-week snippet in February.

The nuance that I mention is recognizing that although higher latitude teleconnnections may no longer rule the roost, they are not entirely ineffective, either.

The truth is its probably both, but each side struggles to acknowledge nuance, which is why we get the "new climate" and "denier" (I know Chuck isn't denying CC) dichotomy that fuels this eternal/ubiquitous debate.

Agreed on both accounts. I'm simply distinguishging between an ostensible La Nina, and an actual event per CPC guidelines.

I am considering it a weak La Niña. If you follow my blog that would be clear....just like I considered last year borderline moderate. All I am saying is that the ONI is one factor that should weigh in to how heavily you factor that indicator. I'm not using the CPC definition of a La Niña to forecast a big winter or anything....but I think it would give me pause in using that rule as my primary rationale for going with another death-star of a season. I think seasonal forecasters in general (not directed at you) need to be mindful of being a bit more nuanced and less rigid in their forecasting conceptualizations.

What isn't in modern times???

I understand all of that, but just saying....that rule is geared toward technical La Niña seasons.

Nor do we know that it will be a technical La Niña season, as the supposed ACE rules only apply to La Niña.

49.8 this AM...so refreshing. I know the usuals are about to bombard me with charts full of ridges...I get it. But it's simply a nice fall preview.

"Well, in this new, warmer climate, guidance has consistently underestimated the southeast ridge, time of the MJO spent in (insert undesirable phase) and (insert undesired weather)".

The peak of the impact on the NAO is 2-4 years post max, so its entitely conceivable we get a decent bout or two of blocking this year. That said, it will average positive, of course.