40/70 Benchmark

I called for the mismatch period and explained in petty vivid detail why I didn't think it would be as good of a winter as 2010-2011 or 2017-2018 ....I was ultimately too warm, but not by much.

Okay...lets poll this....how many in this thread think Chris would have been too cold if he had issued a forecast last season?

Define "difference"......will it mean a below average temperature season with above average snowfall? Probably not....but will it prevent a wall-to-wall disaster with some periods of poleward Aleutian ridging and some blocking...probably.

I said it was cooler in much of the east than 2021-2022, which is was. Really, now you want to compare 2010-2011?? I thought it was unwise to compare a pre 2015 season to this "new, warmer climate"?? I guess we can when convenient. I think you need to start issuing forecasts if you want want to try to claim some sort of victory. I think we can find a redeeming aspect of everyone's narrative, but the trick is to put out numbers and have it verify close to reality.

Probably will be a warm fall.

Honestly....it retards constructive dialogue because then everyone is forced down that wormhole and loses sight for the forest through the trees. Seasons are measured against current base climo...that is a tacit undersanding, so please stop referring to 1895 in the responses. An understanding of how base climo is used doesn't preclude an acceptance of GW.

Well, hopefully you cool off soon. And to think, I always thought Davis was Straight...

At least the heat dome is over the 4 corners region. I'll take that.

I'm not arguing against CC or anything....the globe is warming, but last year was colder than we thought relative to 1991-2020 climo....that's my point. Nothing more, nothing less.

Yea, my point is that it was colder than everyone thought, including Bluewave, not that it was cold relative to long-term climo.

I understand that the standard for what is "cold" keeps lowering as climo warms....that is irrelevenet when forecasting anaomlies. I am not speaking in terms of absolute temps...simply departurers relative to current climo.

I think the issue maybe that you are referring to actual temperature, when most forecasts are issued based on anomalies relative to the current climate period. I guess this disconnect is what is "nebulous" and the source of said "obfuscation". No one argued that it was a particularly cold winter...the point is that it took a relatively lengthy interlude of cold to register even near normal per 1991-2020. This was more than a merely a mismatch period along the lines of 2021-2022, which was even wamer.

Its not going to be an official La Nina, but that doesn't matter...agree otherwise.

I think its still going to be a pretty costly season due to a late home-brew barrage.

I kind of get some 2007-2008 vibes for the coming winter....

The west will do better...no contest. But just give me something flirting with normal and I'd be estatic.

That is pretty much what I am saying....like a 2016-2017 type of season. I don't see a high ceiling, but I think there is also a higher floor than man recent seasons.

Give me near normal temps and slightly below average precip...odds are high I would have my best season in several years, that's how bad it's been.

I don't expect a great storm track....I just think it will be wetter than last year.

Bleh.....anyway, it did pretty well last season and a lot of other guidance looks similar...with the heat centered over TX next winter.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/07/la-neutral-enso-conditions-will.html

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/07/la-neutral-enso-conditions-will.html

Wonder why the CANSIPS is so cool in the NE with MC forcing...

I have a new post discussing all of this shortly....good catch.

@bluewaveI'm not sure it's entirely fair to use data back to 1895 when determining what constitutes cold in our contemporary climate.....clearly all that was implied was that last year was "colder" relative to the current climo base. No one argued it would have been cold using older climo. The point is it took more than merely a "mismatch month" to be even near normal using the 1991-2020 climo base. Citing how it ranked in history to data back to the 1800s seems like a deflection to me. No one is arguing against GW....the argument is that last season was colder than expected relative to modern standards, which ironically enough, tacitly acknowledges climate change. I feel like it will be helpful for you to simply lay out specific seasonal temp ranges for winter per 1991-2020 climo during the fall if you want to remove any ambiguity like this after the fact. Pointing out how the season ranked back to 1895 to defend your nebulous forecast seems less than ideal and only likely to further obfuscate.