40/70 Benchmark

Yea, but the eastern side of ENSO still has a cold subsurface. 1996 is a pretty good comp, but the subsurface is a bit more considerable east...plus the trades were non-existent that year. This event will be stronger than that.

@Stormchaserchuck1I wonder if we try to see a Modoki El Niño next year....pretty comparable subsurface profile to 1967, which led into the 1968-1969 El Niño.

Yea, the wave length differences have made fall more invulnerable to some of these perturbations that are speculatively linked to CC.

I mean, I'm talking about 0.1 to 0.2 ONI and very comparable RONI....so pretty trivial in that regard, but yea...perhaps the MEI disparity would be a bit more worthy of discussion. Sucks we don't have that. I think this marginal difference may be the difference between making an official La Niña this year vs failing last year.....I originally didn't think that we would go official, but am reconsidering.

I think the primary impact will be to ensure this event remains pretty east-based heading into winter...it's been exceedingly difficult to marry any subsurface cold to substantive trades over the western flank.

Yea, that was a blast-

I actually agree with you that this La Niña may end up a hair stronger than last year, after starting my deep dive.

Hard to say SOP....tough call-

Still not much reason for me to post. Back to Outlook....see ya in two weeks.

Maybe I came off more confrontational than I intended...didn't mean to put you on the defensive.

Yes, but I was pretty clear on that portion of your statement, so why would I address it?

What exectly are you trying to insinuate? I mean....the RONI is dead-nuts on. If you are trying to say that the atmosphere is more congruent with La Nina this year, that may not be the worse thing in the world for winter enthusiasts given it's weak and eastward-leaning. Sucks we don't have the MEI this year.

Right...it wasn't. It was a modoki event.

I'm sure snowman will be embedding a tweet to this effect in the AM.

Thanks. I'm making a concerted effort to factor this stuff into my seasonal more.

Yea, I'm been trying to get it ...entered 70N/20N an 100E/60W. Must be doing something wrong.

The gradient between the cold in Siberia and the warmth INVO Japan is what has been causing the stronger jet, correct? I'm struggling to replicate that map view...how did you create the custom view focusing on the North Pacific?

Yea, IDK...I grade based off of the official index calculations....I mean, I forecasted a -WPO, so it's not like doing so helps me lol It is what it is.

I read that tweet this morning and was wondering how long it would take you to embed it here La Niña is very comparable to last year...I feel like he is overstating the importance of the -IOD....we have had some incredible winters with a -IOD....it's not prohibitive in-and-of-Itself. The WPO was extremely positive last year and my money is on LESS of an anomaly this year, but we shall see. The way I see it is that La Niña is extremely comparable to last year in terms of intensity, but more east-based. The west Pacific is also very comparable. JAS RONI is .63...JAS 2024 RONI was also .63. September 2024 WPO: 1.38 September 2025 WPO: 1.22

I like Wxbell's graphics the best....SV has just always had the best loading time, but that gap maybe closing.

I see what you are saying, but this is worse IMO....mischaractrerizing a storm due to mesoscale banding is more forgivable than lumping an entire season in with some of the least snowy when it was one of the more prolific just to the north.

You have a bad habit of applying your own back yard experience to everyone else. 2012-2013 was a fantastic season throughout SNE, with the largest blizzard since 1978.

@bluewaveWhich composite were you using to show the increased Pacific jet since 2018-2019? It doesn't seem that evident here...not doubting you. Just looking for a graphic that illustrates it better.

Full defense (mechanism) mode.