40/70 Benchmark

I took a cursory look back and couldn't find a stretch that has been as consistently strongly positive as it has been since 2017.

It's like I have said to you before.....it's folly to generalize ENSO by intensity.....2009-2010 was a different breed than prototypical stronger events...it was a full-fledged Modoki during an ascending solar cycle just beyond solar min. That is a mid Atlantic wet dream....it's no mystery what it evolved in a favorable fashion. Everyone and their mother was forecasting a blockbuster season that fall...it was obvious.

I would honestly pass on a STJ as strong as 2009-2010 again.

I agree with you that the baseline jump in temps is permanent, and also agree that we need to wait and see on the storm track. Like I was saying, I think most of our disagreements are just born of inconsistencies in the manner that we articulate ourselves and the points that we stress. We largely agree in a general sense.

Completely agree.....I am open to the idea of CC forcing that pattern, but as I have been saying...I would need to see it persist into the 2030s.

I don't think it will be, but I am open-minded about it...if we are still stuck in this pattern beyond the next solar min, then I will change my tune. Agree, or disagree, I think I have been pretty consistent about that. I pushed back on all of the west warm pool stuff at first, but that last El Nino changed my mind, so I have shown that I will acquiesce when the data warrants. This isn't a bias at play. I am on board with the warming....no contest. However, my baseline assumption is that ultimately earth will find a way to offset enough of this to acheieve balance and maintain the osciallations that we have always seen. I unerstand that may be incorrect, but I won't change my stance on that until I am convinced that everything has become stagnant for long enough that the oscillations as we knew them have changed. I know Chris feels that has already happened, but I think there is a pretty convincing case that it has not. I am not moving any goalposts......if this pattern persists throughout the early 2030s, then I will be convinced that the system as I knew it has changed and will offer a tip of the cap to Chris.

But when Kev's wife is around, some c*ck blocking develops around the Davis Straight...

He has that effect on some guys

I was just wondering which chemical in it were unhealthy and why....if you know offhand, great...otherwise I am sure I can look it up.

Why?

Yea, I'll pass on melanoma and leatherface.

What is MAHA?

Kind of reminded me of April 1, 1997, too.

1.66 Boned again.

I know Chris was not in this camp, but I remeber when a large contigent of folks were theorizing that the favorable extra tropical Pacific last decade was a semi-permanent change due to CC, too.

You mean there is a positive correlation between the equatorial Pacific waters during the summer and the subsequent winter season NAO?

I really don't understand how waiting for more data and a larger sample can be wrong.... I don't disagree regarding what has been happening, but I think any implications concerning the future, aside from general warming, need to be tempered for now.

Yes, this also plays into the pattern, which has sucked for the past 8 years or so. I understand that although you won't admit it, you strongly hedge towards this being permanent. I am not there yet. We will find out in a few years.

I don't think anyone entirely understands the factors that determine how impressive the cold source becomes for a given season...while we can be sure that the trend is for it to become less impressive, its not a perfectly linear progression, so any given year moving forward may have a more impressive reservoir to tap.....though clearly the odds diminsh with time.

Okay....so the earth is warming. Thanks for the striking revelation. My point is that while a relica Feb 2015 pattern wouldn't be as cold as it was then, it would still be much colder than this past January. I get the impression that you think that it would be similar to this past January and I have to disagree. The PNA (west-biased) and WPO were ideal for cold delivery to the NE US that season....last year they were not.

That is precisely what I have been saying....the persistent +WPO is a byproduct of the west Pac heatwave.

I don't understand what you are disagreeing with....if getting cold into the northeast is becoming more difficult, but admittedly not impossible, then how on earth do you contest the notion that the pattern has has some influence independent of the background warming?? Makes zero sense.

2021-2022 was the only -WPO winter since 2016-2017.

Yea, February 2015 had an immaculate Pacific pattern. I didn't say that the size of the cold pool doesn't matter...I said its BOTH, the pattern and the size of the cold pool. You seem to struggle to accept that.

Its a combination of shrinking overage AND predominately -PNA/+NAO/+WPO.